Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Although EXTREMELY UNLIKELY and I don't tink it will happen,think how unprecedented it would be to have two storms in the atl and epac in the month of may!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To: LargoFl

BCC: wunderkidcayman

Please link long text like that, that took up nearly a whole page of blog. And seriously now, don't quote it.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5405
Latest shear tendency and shear:





The wind barbs organization show upper level flow is a tinsy better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
The NHC obviously read the blog because as soon a we like begged it happened

lol may they just listen to me cause I was saying it will when everyone is nope
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like Bud will still be 40 mph at 8 PM PDT.

23/0000 UTC 12.7N 105.4W T2.5/2.5 BUD -- East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
Quoting pottery:

A quite similar set-up hung around over the southeast Carib Islands for a month......
Hey pottery. What's up?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
The NHC obviously read the blog because as soon a we like begged it happened
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year






Not until next year ... At least.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115121
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.


As I mentioned earlier this is classic from the GFS, how many times have we seen it develop something in the long term, then drop it in the mid range and pick it back up before development?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7717
Quoting LargoFl:
000
FZNT23 KNHC 222105
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ001-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N W OF 55W
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 13N WILL MOVE TO 55W
BY EARLY THU...60W BY EARLY FRI...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA.

$$

AMZ011-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
.THU...N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ013-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND
SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ015-230945-
CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$

AMZ017-230945-
GULF OF HONDURAS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW TO N 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.WED...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU...W WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING N TO NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ019-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.

$$

AMZ021-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ023-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ025-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ027-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN NE AND E SWELL.

$$

AMZ029-230945-
W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING SE TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL.
.THU...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

$$

AMZ031-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA
BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ033-230945-
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ035-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ037-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N OF 10N...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. S OF 10N...E WINDS 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ039-230945-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...SW WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.FRI...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NW TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.


$$

AMZ101-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NE TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...TO 29N75W BY EARLY
SAT...AND N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN.

$$

AMZ111-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...N OF 29N W OF 79W...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ113-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ115-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E TO SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$

AMZ117-230945-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E SWELL.

$$

AMZ119-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOW


I want to see the new ones tomrrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
I can't take 2 more days of this, I've had enough! Why can't this just move to NE as fast it can :(

A quite similar set-up hung around over the southeast Carib Islands for a month......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
FZNT23 KNHC 222105
OFFNT3

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
22N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W
INCLUDING BAHAMAS...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ001-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO
19N W OF 55W
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT NE
THROUGH THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W S OF 13N WILL MOVE TO 55W
BY EARLY THU...60W BY EARLY FRI...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BETWEEN THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA.

$$

AMZ011-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO
10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
.THU...N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ013-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND
SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ015-230945-
CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

$$

AMZ017-230945-
GULF OF HONDURAS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW TO N 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.WED...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU...W WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING N TO NE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ019-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE TO S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E AND SE SWELL.

$$

AMZ021-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ023-230945-
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ025-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ027-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN NE AND E SWELL.

$$

AMZ029-230945-
W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT...BECOMING SE TO S IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E
SWELL.
.THU...SE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

$$

AMZ031-230945-
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA
BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.

$$

AMZ033-230945-
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.WED...E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ035-230945-
OFFSHORE WATERS WINDWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.

$$

AMZ037-230945-
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...N OF 10N...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. S OF 10N...E WINDS 10 TO
15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL.

$$

AMZ039-230945-
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA CANAL-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.WED...SW WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.THU...NE TO E WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT IN NE
SWELL.
.FRI...N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.
.SAT...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NW TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN NE SWELL.


$$

AMZ101-230945-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT NE TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY FRI...TO 29N75W BY EARLY
SAT...AND N OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUN.

$$

AMZ111-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...N OF 29N W OF 79W...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
ELSEWHERE...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

$$

AMZ113-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN SE SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.

$$

AMZ115-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT IN E TO SE SWELL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT IN E TO SE
SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THU...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NE TO E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL.
.SUN...NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.

$$

AMZ117-230945-
BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT...BECOMING 3 TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.FRI...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...NW TO N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT E SWELL.

$$

AMZ119-230945-
ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W-
505 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOW
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38518
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.


GFS could have been calling any system a month ago..it even dropped the system so I wouldnt say this is the same system..he kept with the disturbance when he was being called out with shear maps..kudos to him for sticking with his guns when a few bloggers were giving him a hard time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year





it should have been finish or almost finish my boss Fred sambula said it is to be finish by early summer 2012 think he said

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18

I don't trust is cause it is the fist run on this system and first runs are alway thrown out the door
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
Alberto is the 1st storm this year too skip TD

Maybe its just me but I feel like that's a growing trend- storms going straight to TS without being a TD...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18

That may be a little high on the shear forecast but still it gets my point across that shear will be too high for anything to come out of this.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Quoting keithneese:


Maybe so, but you have to admit wunderkid caught quite a bit of flack for sticking with it. In fact, I believe this morning he was called a "wishcaster".


Exactly. He stuck with it even after everyone said it wouldn't amount to anything.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
I'm curious to hear Levi's take on 94...
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 67 Comments: 186
Quoting keithneese:


Check the date, that's 2011.
yes i saw that..thanks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38518
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.
But he was the most persistent with this now we will see if it develops into a TD or TS.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.


Maybe so, but you have to admit wunderkid caught quite a bit of flack for sticking with it. In fact, I believe this morning he was called a "wishcaster".
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 67 Comments: 186
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That he did. A week ago in fact!

and didn't you and some other say that I was wrong hmm I guess no then

Quoting Hurricanes101:


shear is decreasing and will be more favorable for development as the week goes on


should be by tomrrow morning mid day time
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SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That he did. A week ago in fact!

We all called this. Three weeks ago. This is the system the GFS was showing in the early portion of the month, with low pressure struggling to consolidate in the Atlantic and a tropical storm in the East Pacific.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year




Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thanks
though I think they should have brought it down to around 17N but they did get the 84W bit right
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Shear is still too high though... As was mentioned earlier its a small, fragile system and will be disrupted easily... Also it remains very broad and disorganized to start with so it would need much more favorable conditions to consolidate. Only my opinion though :)


shear is decreasing and will be more favorable for development as the week goes on
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7717
Quoting keithneese:
Hats off to wunderkid. You called it!


That he did. A week ago in fact!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
94L, no surprise there.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24031
Quoting LargoFl:
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link


Check the date, that's 2011.
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 67 Comments: 186
Quoting LargoFl:
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link

So apprently its at 10%?

Edit: Nevermind, that's a 94L from last year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think so too... I'm surprised they tagged it but I don't think it's a bad idea... It's just unlikely this will develop.

By the way which models support development? I honestly haven't been following this one at all.
Agreed
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting LargoFl:
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link

That's from last season...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
Alberto is the 1st storm this year too skip TD
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115121
No change to Bud's file; it remains at 35 knots:

EP, 02, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1055W, 35, 1004, TS,
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
0z ATCF update on Bud is in- no changes.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
they do not think it is going to amount to much..Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38518
94L has a good ch of becomeing are next name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115121
Has anyone seen the 18Z Nogaps!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey can you post the link thanks


Here is the file for 94L.

Link
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Quoting cg2916:


The problem is that the chances of this are so low. It's great that they tagged it, but it's more of a "just in case" thing.

I think so too... I'm surprised they tagged it but I don't think it's a bad idea... It's just unlikely this will develop.

By the way which models support development? I honestly haven't been following this one at all.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38518
Quoting keithneese:
Hats off to wunderkid. You called it!

thanks
though I think they should have brought it down to around 17N but they did get the 84W bit right
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and here you go guys


AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115121
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 94L!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

hey can you post the link thanks
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Hats off to wunderkid. You called it!
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 67 Comments: 186
Quoting Hurricanes101:


why would you say that?

Its in a favored area for development with plenty of moisture and warm SSTs, shear is expected to drop and it has model support

Id say it has a decent shot

Shear is still too high though... As was mentioned earlier its a small, fragile system and will be disrupted easily... Also it remains very broad and disorganized to start with so it would need much more favorable conditions to consolidate. Only my opinion though :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7787
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Eh, don't push your luck, Maybe later this week.


The problem is that the chances of this are so low. It's great that they tagged it, but it's more of a "just in case" thing.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm stunned... I really don't think this has a chance, very interesting they'd tag it.

Why?

Conditions will become more favorable for development over the next two to three days.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38518
Woops....just as I say that....we have 94L
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