Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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595. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well



It's right where I put it earlier.


So ...does it kind of follow the trough?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know this is off-topic, but it's really important that I find this out and I can't seem to find anything about it on the internet.

Does anybody know any people Steve Jobs looked up to (besides Mark Zuckerberg?).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559
Well thats it for me,have a good night everyone!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting kmanislander:
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.



Well



It's right where I put it earlier.
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Quoting kmanislander:
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.


I think it will change
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
590. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 230019
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0019 UTC WED MAY 23 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120523 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120523 0000 120523 1200 120524 0000 120524 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 84.3W 19.5N 84.4W 20.4N 84.3W 21.7N 84.5W
BAMD 18.5N 84.3W 20.5N 82.0W 23.4N 79.6W 27.2N 76.9W
BAMM 18.5N 84.3W 20.1N 83.4W 22.0N 82.5W 24.3N 81.9W
LBAR 18.5N 84.3W 19.9N 83.3W 22.4N 82.3W 25.5N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120525 0000 120526 0000 120527 0000 120528 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.1N 84.2W 24.8N 85.3W 25.1N 89.4W 26.4N 94.2W
BAMD 31.1N 73.4W 34.5N 63.6W 32.8N 58.2W 29.4N 54.2W
BAMM 26.8N 81.4W 28.0N 81.1W 26.4N 83.8W 25.4N 87.9W
LBAR 28.9N 79.0W 33.1N 70.9W 32.1N 64.8W 27.8N 64.2W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 84.3W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 84.9W DIRM12 = 77DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 130NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just remeber: 94L hasn't "developed" yet... Being an invest just means it is an area that can be researched and have model runs conducted on... We always remeber the TS's (at least in post season analysis) but the invests are always forgotten as they really don't mean that much.
yes something to watch the next few days
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol... I don't care how much of a fish storm it is- A storm like this is NOT boring :)



yeah..... i ment it take sooooooooo long to get it together..
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good job Wunderkid you have been all over the development of this little bugger.

thank you I told you guys it will happen and a whole load of you did not agree well do you agree now when will 94L be I say NOW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
really , ATCF keeps Bud at 40 mph for the 11 PM advisory....

this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!

Lol... I don't care how much of a fish storm it is- A storm like this is NOT boring :)

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969

It doesn't look like a 40 mph storm
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582. xcool
haha
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COC is the right red blob. Seems to be gaining back some ground tonight as the right blob and left blob appear to be coming together again. You can see them reaching out to each other in the image.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
really , ATCF keeps Bud at 40 mph for the 11 PM advisory....

this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!
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Just remeber: 94L hasn't "developed" yet... Being an invest just means it is an area that can be researched and have model runs conducted on... We always remeber the TS's (at least in post season analysis) but the invests are always forgotten as they really don't mean that much.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised Possible tropical development in the future


Id also expect that i will eat in the future too
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

lol may they just listen to me cause I was saying it will when everyone is nope
Good job Wunderkid you have been all over the development of this little bugger.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Meanwhile, in Kansas: A marriage with tornadoes as a backdrop took place

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)

They just do that so that EVERYONE can have a good time .....

:):))
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574. xcool
I wouldn't be suprised Possible tropical development in the future
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like a track generally towards south Florida for 94L

No, two tracks to TX (one via bragging rights detour to FL) and one to the fish.

This is a TX storm. FL doesn't need the rain, anyway :)
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94L data..........Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting Tazmanian:



he has lots of wind shear overe him right now

I guess so... It's just weird that he looks good but in reality he's actually pretty weak.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)

Lol! I edited the comment because I saw the map had already been posted but you're right... Very useful model run by the BAM series
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

throw it out the door
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is so helpful:



Looks like somewhere between Texas and Bermuda... What great model agreement!
Sarcasm Flag (ON)
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Most likely 94L won't do much until the high builds in above and gets shoved back west. "IF" that is what indeed ends up happening.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
so Im guessing the buildings already built? very confusing..


Link


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This was actually in today's Compass.

With the arrival of Cayman%u2019s early warning weather radar set for July 2012, it is not clear yet how much the Cayman Islands government will spend on the long-awaited Doppler system.

The government is expected to award the contract to construct the tower for radar system this month, and has announced that two German companies will install the digital radar itself and give technical assistance for the duration of the project. It also has an agreement with a regional meteorological body to provide various services before and after the radar is installed.

%u201CIt is anticipated that the construction tender will be awarded in December and the tower should be completed by July next year, to coincide with the radar%u2019s arrival. The final phase will be the set-up of equipment within the building and staff training,%u201D Cayman Islands Airports Authority Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Jackson said in a news release.


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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like a track generally towards south Florida for 94L


generally, You know how all canes hit florida.... Lotta moisture though



Nice spin though, shows promise yet
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I say 94L is really at 17.0N 84.3W moving ENE-NE

also the LLCOC is now getting covered with convection just N of NE honduras and shear is falling aroun 10-15kt and pressures are rising here in cayman as the convection in the area decraeases and the LLC weakens as shear in the W cuba Isle of youth area are running at 30-50kt
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not too sure what Bud's problem is... He looks like a mid-strength TS but the winds just aren't there.



he has lots of wind shear overe him right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting sunlinepr:

Not too sure what Bud's problem is... He looks like a mid-strength TS but the winds just aren't there.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Looks like a track generally towards south Florida for 94L
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Wonder if/when they are ever going to get the Radar up and running here I thought it was supposed to be finished last year




This was actually in today's Compass.

With the arrival of Cayman’s early warning weather radar set for July 2012, it is not clear yet how much the Cayman Islands government will spend on the long-awaited Doppler system.

The government is expected to award the contract to construct the tower for radar system this month, and has announced that two German companies will install the digital radar itself and give technical assistance for the duration of the project. It also has an agreement with a regional meteorological body to provide various services before and after the radar is installed.

“It is anticipated that the construction tender will be awarded in December and the tower should be completed by July next year, to coincide with the radar’s arrival. The final phase will be the set-up of equipment within the building and staff training,” Cayman Islands Airports Authority Chief Executive Officer Jeremy Jackson said in a news release.


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not really that broad at all...


It's just elongated a fairly weak
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« View county list

Special Weather Statement
FLZ033-230100-
ST. JOHNS-
816 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL ST.
JOHNS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 900 PM
EDT...

AT 816 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ELKTON...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HASTINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPUDS...ELKTON...DUPONT CENTER...SAINT
AUGUSTINE SOUTH...SAINT AUGUSTINE SHORES...SAINT AUGUSTINE...BUTLER
BEACH...ANASTASIA AND SAINT AUGUSTINE BEACH THROUGH 900 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2970 8149 2978 8151 2992 8128 2991 8127
2988 8126 2977 8124 2975 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 242DEG 30KT 2977 8143

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SHIPS does nothing with it.

25 26 28 29 29 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS

Apparently shear WON'T be lowering...

SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 28 37 53 57 41 34 25 27 19 18



The low will be dancing a fine line with the Sub Tropical Jet until the high builds in above. As the STJ lifts north overnight, so will the shear. Ships may not recognize the sharp contrast between 60-70kts in the front yard and 10-20kts in the backyard.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
When is the next full batch of models for 94l
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Twister Offline
Twister is temporarily offline due to a firewall problem within the Department of Geography. We expect service to be restored by Tuesday May 22, 2012 and sincerely apologize for any inconvenience this outage has caused.

Updates
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sorry I was thinking to shorten ing it to about half but I was too lazy but anyway sorry

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12697
Awesome news if they get it up and running for this hurricane seaon! next question is what data will be avail. to the public from it? It will be an awesome resourse for tracking developing systems in the NW carib as right now its a bit of a blind spot radar wise.

Just saw this looks like next year ;-(


Link
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

That's not really that broad at all...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32559






Conditions are much more favorable than they were just yesterday!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
Quoting nigel20:
Hey pottery. What's up?

Not much...
Scattered showers, and Hot.
Going to continue like this for a while......
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
To: LargoFl

BCC: wunderkidcayman

Please link long text like that, that took up nearly a whole page of blog. And seriously now, don't quote it.
yes i am sorry about that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41156
Although EXTREMELY UNLIKELY and I don't tink it will happen,think how unprecedented it would be to have two storms in the atl and epac in the month of may!!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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