Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

Share this Blog
29
+

Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 645 - 595

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4311
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The Cuba low should become dominant. The Roaton low is weakening and being absorbed by the other one.

really don't see that happening sorry we will just have to wait till moring and see what happens
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
94L is very unimpressive and in some very unfavorable conditions...

Doubt much comes out of it.

Might not even see a STWO

Might have a chance off the Southeast coastline in a few days as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. I just don't see it organizing any further while in the Caribbean in face of 20-40 knots of wind shear though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

roatans pressure is rising which is expected as it is moving E-ENE its closer to Puerto Lempira which shows 1009mb as well

but anyway lets watch it overnight and lets seen what the obs show and the conditions ater that
side note can't wait to see what happens when D-Max arrives in the morning


In post 616 you said pressure near Roatan is steady or falling. Now you say it is rising and that is to be expected ??.

You need to calm down :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
AL942012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)







You know you want to dust off that Yukon Cornelius pic, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
94L?.Hmmm.Wunderkidcayman is going to be busy in the blog..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


I was talking more about the blog.

Do you really expect there to be? lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
94L is very unimpressive and in some very unfavorable conditions...

Doubt much comes out of it.

Might not even see a STWO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L/INV/XX
MARK
17.13N/82.64W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


I was talking more about the blog.




LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
Quoting kmanislander:


Roatan pressure is 1010 mbs. Our pressure right now is 1009.3. This disturbance is really nothing to get worked up over.

roatans pressure is rising which is expected as it is moving E-ENE its closer to Puerto Lempira which shows 1009mb as well

but anyway lets watch it overnight and lets seen what the obs show and the conditions ater that
side note can't wait to see what happens when D-Max arrives in the morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Only a few model runs have come out the BAMS, BAMM, & BAMD.


I was talking more about the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
Wow, I leave for a short while and apparently word has spread about 94L because the comments have added 3 new pages.

What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?
Only a few model runs have come out the BAMS, BAMM, & BAMD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's not really JX, but St. Simons Island that is under the gun right now:
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Brantley County in southeast Georgia
northwestern Camden County in southeast Georgia
Glynn County in southeast Georgia

* until 1015 PM EDT

* at 924 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles west of Waverly... or 11 miles southeast of Nahunta... and moving northeast at 40 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Waverly... Waynesville... Thalmann... Dock Junction... Brunswick... Country Club Estates... St. Simons and Sea Island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL942012 - INVEST


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I know this is off-topic, but it's really important that I find this out and I can't seem to find anything about it on the internet.

Does anybody know any people Steve Jobs looked up to (besides Mark Zuckerberg?).


I tried answers.com (backup for all projects) and the question went unasnwered. Hope this isnt due tomorrow, Im big on procastinating though im not gonna lie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well
Dear Wunderkid when they start the model run they put all that information in it then the model decides where it will put the low as you can see they put the low even higher then it is on the preeure map. The USA decided to invest it because this trough is forcast to give the USA a lot of rain and they want to be prepared not because its going to develope in the next 3 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Cuba low should become dominant. The Roaton low is weakening and being absorbed by the other one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Wow, the heavens just opened up !. Raining cats, dogs and many other animals right now !!



oh my lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115080
Wow, the heavens just opened up !. Raining cats, dogs and many other animals right now !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I leave for a short while and apparently word has spread about 94L because the comments have added 3 new pages.

What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


The low is very broad at this time. There is no true center so to speak so a difference of a degree does not matter.


pre-disturb area of convective activity
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I posted this earlier but has since updated, still showing the same thing however. This map frames the low very well and the broad nature of it. The smaller scale cyclones, and there are a few in the last look at visible, are all part of the large and broad low.



Exactly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well


Roatan pressure is 1010 mbs. Our pressure right now is 1009.3. This disturbance is really nothing to get worked up over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
may bring a side winder
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????

right
low in honduras
getting stronger
getting more convection
getting less shear in the range of 10-20kt
stronger circulation
slowly lowering pressures

low in cuba
getting weaker
convection is getting weaker
it is getting a lot more shear about 10-30kt more
circulationg looking weaker
pressures are slowly riseing

ok you get it yet
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
I posted this earlier but has since updated, still showing the same thing however. This map frames the low very well and the broad nature of it. The smaller scale cyclones, and there are a few in the last look at visible, are all part of the large and broad low.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yes!!!! fits in perfectly
it does but lets give it a bit
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Did not see that but it makes sense, especially when you look at the barometric readings in this area from earlier on which is what I posted about 3 hours ago.

Of course, don't forget that with sheared systems the area of lowest pressure can jump around and I suspect that is what happened here

pressure here and in the area are rising
pressures near Honduras are either steady or falling
plus the honduras low is getting a lot less shear that the cuba low so I suspect that by moring pressures should jump around again too the honduras low also we convection that is now increasing with the honduras low as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
Quoting Chicklit:

I've been dying to say this: Bud is a dud.


yes!!!! fits in perfectly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night everyone.

I leave you with the remains of Alberto

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Good night Bud.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

it should have been at 17N where the roatan low is now right now it is located at 17N 84.3W


The low is very broad at this time. There is no true center so to speak so a difference of a degree does not matter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

WxGeekVA has the right idea.

Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????

WxGeekVA has the right idea.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32022
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
really , ATCF keeps Bud at 40 mph for the 11 PM advisory....

this storm is borriER than Katia.... gosh!

I've been dying to say this: Bud is a dud.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I had a nickle for every "L" this blog pumped over the last 7 years........


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting kmanislander:
I see 94L is up and much further N than the feature near Roatan which is what I was surmising earlier.


it should have been at 17N where the roatan low is now right now it is located at 17N 84.3W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
605. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's where I think it will track, yes. Then it'll back towards Florida and into the GOM and then into the gulf coast. Probably just a weak TS though


Interesting thought ...gonna be fun to watch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well



It's right where I put it earlier.


Did not see that but it makes sense, especially when you look at the barometric readings in this area from earlier on which is what I posted about 3 hours ago.

Of course, don't forget that with sheared systems the area of lowest pressure can jump around and I suspect that is what happened here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txjac:


So ...does it kind of follow the trough?


That's where I think it will track, yes. Then it'll back towards Florida and into the GOM and then into the gulf coast. Probably just a weak TS though
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the low near honduras is strengthening and the low near cuba is weakening

That is contradicting post 592.
Which Low is doing what ????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
601. txjac
Quoting CosmicEvents:
If I had a nickle for every "L" this blog pumped over the last 7 years........


You'd be retired! lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
600. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
9:00 AM JST May 23 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (998 hPa) located at 15.7N 141.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 18.0N 139.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.4N 139.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 22.7N 140.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical storm will decelerate for the next 24 hours
:It will recurve within 48 hours
:It will move north northwest for the next 48 hours then move north northeast

Tropical Storm will be upgraded to severe tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical storm will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final Dvorak intensity will be 3.0 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45295
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just remeber: 94L hasn't "developed" yet... Being an invest just means it is an area that can be researched and have model runs conducted on... We always remeber the TS's (at least in post season analysis) but the invests are always forgotten as they really don't mean that much.
If I had a nickle for every "L" this blog pumped over the last 7 years........
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5581
..dont forget to punch out on time and to grab a weekly wu-flyer too!..

: )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the low near honduras is strengthening and the low near cuba is weakening
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11975
596. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
Well thats it for me,have a good night everyone!


You too Largo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
595. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well



It's right where I put it earlier.


So ...does it kind of follow the trough?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 645 - 595

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
58 °F
Scattered Clouds