Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

Share this Blog
29
+

Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 695 - 645

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

I love quick flare up storms like Alberto and 94L, they come and go...and usually are more of a curiosity then anything. Anyways, does 94L not remind you of TD-1 of 1990.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting etxwx:


If TA13 is still around, I found this Steve Jobs' heroes

Thanks!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.

2011 had La Nia conditions from DJF (December {2010}-January-February) to MAM (March-April-May, Neutral conditions from AMJ (April-May-June) to JAS (July-August-September), and then back to La Nia conditions from ASO (August-September-October) through the end of the year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
it was a nina now neutral going to nino
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
691. j2008
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
No, it was supposed to be but in the end it turned out to be La Nina.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
Was a La Niña I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
689. etxwx
Quoting weatherh98:


I tried answers.com (backup for all projects) and the question went unasnwered. Hope this isnt due tomorrow, Im big on procastinating though im not gonna lie


If TA13 is still around, I found this Steve Jobs' heroes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Honestly, Ike was probably a major hurricane at landfall. I'm pretty sure 1-minute sustained winds probably made it 1 mph before landfall on the Texas coastline. ;)

We got mighty lucky with Hurricane Irene. Had it not started an Eyewall Replacement Cycle without finishing it, we would have probably been dealing with a Category 3 hurricane landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
yep new york got lucky too but maybe the luck has run out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


You don't want that to happen because we would then have neutral conditions for the entire season and that would be bad :-(
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been seven years since 2005 happened

Honestly, Ike was probably a major hurricane at landfall. I'm pretty sure 1-minute sustained winds probably made it 1 mph before landfall on the Texas coastline. ;)

We got mighty lucky with Hurricane Irene. Had it not started an Eyewall Replacement Cycle without finishing it, we would have probably been dealing with a Category 3 hurricane landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
goodnight friend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
been seven years since 2005 happened
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out. Gnite all :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
Make sure your F5 key is working could be a long season!!!!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting palmpt:


Hello, Taz... Hope you are doing well. It's that time of year again.



yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.


Yeah, nothing's going on in the Caribbean for a little while.

Whether or not it can spin up east of FL will be interesting. It will probably, however, get roughed around by the subtropical stream (depending on the timing) and the Antilles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It is rather impressive that were already at 94L in the pre-season though...



That is right. I dont remember the North Atlantic being at 94L on this date.Is ahead of EPAC too by 2.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14214
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey guys re call the last neutral conditions we had back in 2005??? that year we had 28 name storms


and so far we had 1 name storm and its olny may
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm hoping El nino forms in late October..Will that be called wish casting??


You don't want that to happen because we would then have neutral conditions for the entire season and that would be bad :-(
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
Quoting Tazmanian:





sure is do you re call where we where last year at this time


Hello, Taz... Hope you are doing well. It's that time of year again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is only May what will the season be like?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Broad low

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yep
gotta go slow
if you want to last
till the end and beyond
it is what it is
and what its yet to become


Hi Keep. So true. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.
I'm hoping El nino forms in late October..Will that be called wish casting??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The past two or three years I've run off a copy of the atlantic basin map the NHC has. In previous years I've taped many sheets of paper together to produce the mosaic but this year I have access to a 36 inch plotter. While I'm going to miss the huge, 5'x7' map I had the first year I did this, it'll be a lot easier to put up and store. (Had to get rid of the first two.)

It's been that time of year for a bit now, but I do think it's time to print off my yearly "big board." I look forward to getting to use a second pen color this early in the season.

So with Alberto out of the way in comes 94L, whether or not it does anything is still up in the air obviously, but the southeast sure could use the rain of a tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You all have a great evening. I will be checking in tomorrow.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
by the way when will the OSCAT and ASCAT make the assending passes
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11733
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.


yep
gotta go slow
if you want to last
till the end and beyond
it is what it is
and what its yet to become
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
It is rather impressive that were already at 94L in the pre-season though...






sure is do you re call where we where last year at this time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Really I thought I said that with the roatan low (by the way I said roatan as a general locating not as a precise location) pressures around the area was either steady or falling roatan at the time was steady but now rising and I am calm so calm that I am practically lying on my bed sleeping


Good stuff LOL.

94L is just a warm up for the season. This early on conditions are just too marginal in the Caribbean for a system to really organise. Another 10 to 15 days should change that. With neutral conditions forecasted to last through summer there may be many late nights on the blog.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of forming.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of dying.
What is it?


Probably time to discuss 95L perhaps?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not sure why the NHC had tagged this in the caribbean except the southeast U.S coast where it has a better chance...OH SHOOT!!!.I forgot it was still the off season...feels more like late June...This season is going to be hella interesting though..hopefully..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of forming.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of dying.
What is it?
they all form to die
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is rather impressive that were already at 94L in the pre-season though...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO


A but it will look like fay in general as it moves toward florida, Ik generation points are different and al but same concept

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PurpleDrank:
94L is her.

no it is an it until if/when gets named
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11733
Quoting kmanislander:


In post 616 you said pressure near Roatan is steady or falling. Now you say it is rising and that is to be expected ??.

You need to calm down :-)

Really I thought I said that with the roatan low (by the way I said roatan as a general locating not as a precise location) pressures around the area was either steady or falling roatan at the time was steady but now rising and I am calm so calm that I am practically lying on my bed sleeping
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11733
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of forming.
I keep hearing that 94L has a good chance of dying.
What is it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94 L looks like someone took a train and ran over a cane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
94L is her.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS loop Cuba low
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3470
Quoting allancalderini:
Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO

A.

Not in the Caribbean though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
Quoting cg2916:


I was talking more about the blog.
gonna rain maybe a little wind too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's not really JX, but St. Simons Island that is under the gun right now:
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
southeastern Brantley County in southeast Georgia
northwestern Camden County in southeast Georgia
Glynn County in southeast Georgia

* until 1015 PM EDT

* at 924 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles west of Waverly... or 11 miles southeast of Nahunta... and moving northeast at 40 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to Waverly... Waynesville... Thalmann... Dock Junction... Brunswick... Country Club Estates... St. Simons and Sea Island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Might have a chance off the Southeast coastline in a few days as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. I just don't see it organizing any further while in the Caribbean in face of 20-40 knots of wind shear though.


I agree. In the Caribbean, it doesn't have much of a chance. If it can make it across the Greater Antilles and the subtropical jet stream, it will have a much better shot at developing. Still though, it's got a lot of checkpoints to pass.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
Wow, I leave for a short while and apparently word has spread about 94L because the comments have added 3 new pages.

What is the general consensus here, or is there one, on 94L?


To make it short it looks sucky and broad.

There are two "lows" trying to fight for it (LOL)

Convection is all scatter brained et cetera
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok people do you think 94L will further develop?
A: yes
B: NO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 695 - 645

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
80 °F
Mostly Cloudy