Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z Surface Analysis.


way too N we will just have to wait till sunrise to find out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11815
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Looks like it will eventually shoot the gap, over Bahamas and S Florida and Cuba.



Yep, which for all intents and purposes would likely also push 94L up along the Florida peninsula on its way out as that front moves down south across the gulf coast.

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.


Seems that they should actualize the DB....

Hurricane strikes by counties 1900-2010
Link

Link
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Quoting nofailsafe:


It looks like there's a nice little ridge over the Gulf right now.



Looks like it will eventually shoot the gap, over Bahamas and S Florida and Cuba.

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The 00z Surface Analysis.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.


I could see this reaching td status before getting ripped to shreds over Florida and the Bahamas.

Benefitical Rain Maker.
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Here in Altamonte Springs, near Orlando, we have just had a small series of very intense thunderstorms, dead-center on the Winter Park/Maitland/Altamonte area. Winds really picked up as the red on the radar moved in, gusting easily to 45-50 mph. Tremendous rain and lighting, that, although not excessive, struck way too close for comfort several times. Then, as this was winding down, another storm developed and blew in with the same force as the first storms. Still raining and blustery and refreshingly cool. Okay, now I need to calm down :) Did anybody else catch these storms?
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Quoting weatherh98:


Is there a trough in gulf? It's so dry, haven't looked at any maps because im on my iPhone. It actually odd though because its dry here in se la but we keep getting pop ups, real hot too.


It looks like there's a nice little ridge over the Gulf right now.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting sunlinepr:





Well, Jeanne 04 and Wilma 05 debunked that map, lol. MIA & FLL however are 20 years out.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5282
Quoting Levi32:


It might feel like it with all of the disturbances, but it definitely isn't, or else 94L would not be feeling wind shear from the subtropical jetstream. The jet is still very much as far south as it is supposed to be in May.

Conditions in the Atlantic are pretty marginal overall, and don't forget that although this year favors in-close developments, which is more dangerous, it also means each storm has less of a chance to become a hurricane. It is harder. 1985 is the glaring exception to this rule, as it was the worst hurricane landfalling season in U.S. history, yet all storms developed very close to land.


Is there a trough in gulf? It's so dry, haven't looked at any maps because im on my iPhone. It actually odd though because its dry here in se la but we keep getting pop ups, real hot too.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6475
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NHC doesn't see a hurricane now for Bud.


TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BUD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A 2243 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOR HAVE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE
LACK OF CHANGE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
35 KT.

IT REMAINS A BIT PUZZLING AS TO WHY BUD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE
CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR OVER BUD THAN WHAT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST.
EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS
AND ENCOUNTERING EVEN LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AN EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THE
OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL
TIMES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. BUD SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN
24-48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND
TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG
107W AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS BUD
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 72-120 HOURS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD COME TO A HALT AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A
PRESUMABLY WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS WEST.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOW ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
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Better to include the 500+MB level for steering. Surface layer steering is only relevant for a short time period, assuming a strengthening storm.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5282
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
It's been a long time since a major has graced the Peninsula and the Gulf. Not that many hurricanes either since 2005. Past several years have featured re-curves for the most part. The card is going to come up sooner or later.


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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230235
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...BUD NOT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 105.9W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST
WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7979
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i hop this year is not all TS
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



That map is not really relevant at the moment. Sure you can get an idea however, it changes weekly. Surely the high will be displaced with the ULL and Alberto still clearing the area, check again this weekend. The lower US coast line needs to pay attention to the high pressure in the NE that keeps coming back. 2004 featured a lot of troughs that pulled the storms up but also feature a lot of east coast ridging that sent them back to the coast. Just my 2C
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5282
I expect to at least see some caribbean trackers like Gustav and Charley for an example.

post 722.No we weren't at 93L until June so yeah..
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is right. I dont remember the North Atlantic being at 94L on this date.Is ahead of EPAC too by 2.

we were at 94L around this time last season.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.

I am wondering the same thing
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7979



Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11815
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.


It might feel like it with all of the disturbances, but it definitely isn't, or else 94L would not be feeling wind shear from the subtropical jetstream. The jet is still very much as far south as it is supposed to be in May.

Conditions in the Atlantic are pretty marginal overall, and don't forget that although this year favors in-close developments, which is more dangerous, it also means each storm has less of a chance to become a hurricane. It is harder. 1985 is the glaring exception to this rule, as it was the worst hurricane landfalling season in U.S. history, yet all storms developed very close to land.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The worst pattern for the western Atlantic.This season might not be all that active but it sure as hell is gonna give us some scary threats if that pattern holds :(.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
taz

T-8DAYS
I thin k people forgot to countdown especially with the early formation that we've had.
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Still can't believe that the last Major CONUS landfall was Wilma six and a half years ago...

That was one hell of a storm here.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How can you see an exposed low level circulation when the sun went down several hours ago?

shortwave IR it work you should give it a try one day
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11815
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
It's been a long time since a major has graced the Peninsula and the Gulf. Not that many hurricanes either since 2005. Past several years have featured re-curves for the most part. The card is going to come up sooner or later.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Does anyone know what in the world would have caused this echo on the radar?





In all seriousness probably either a radar glitch or some military chaff dropped in a training exercise.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.




hi


what are conditions set up to be this year all so what is the high set up do we have this year
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taz

T-8DAYS
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710. etxwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thanks!

You are very welcome...I appreciate all the weather info you share. :-)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I can now see the LLC of the Cuba low now very much exposed and looks to be very weak on it NE side movement off to the W now located at 20N 85W at a decent speed running into some 55-65kt shear

I see the honduras low not too well cause it is covered with building convection but still has a goo circulation on all sides movement off to E-ENE at a slower speed that the cuba low running into some 10-15kt shear

lets watch it and see what happens

How can you see an exposed low level circulation when the sun went down several hours ago?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
It's been a long time since a major has graced the Peninsula and the Gulf. Not that many hurricanes either since 2005. Past several years have featured re-curves for the most part. The card is going to come up sooner or later.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5282
Does anyone know what in the world would have caused this echo on the radar?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




be come norml updates on the out look dos not start in tell june 1st
taz they don't get it
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
94L is now confirmed

late
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11815
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
I can now see the LLC of the Cuba low now very much exposed and looks to be very weak on it NE side movement off to the W now located at 20N 85W at a decent speed running into some 55-65kt shear

I see the honduras low not too well cause it is covered with building convection but still has a goo circulation on all sides movement off to E-ENE at a slower speed that the cuba low located at around located at 17.1N 84.0W running into some lower 10-15kt shear

lets watch it and see what happens
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11815
94L is now confirmed
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting washingtonian115:
Was the 2011 hurricane season neutral?.If so we saw a below number of threats that season to the U.S coast with the exception of Irene and Lee.


Here's a relatively complete table:

Oceanic Ni~no Index by month.

EDIT:

2005 went from a weak El Nino to a neutral phase.
2008 was from La Nina to a neutral phase.
2012 appears to be a La Nina to a neutral phase as well.
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Quoting winter123:
How does the Caribbean system not even have a "near 0" percent? It looks quite typical of how early season storms form.




be come norml updates on the out look dos not start in tell june 1st
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Carnival Magic

Last reported at 2012-May-22 18:00 UTC. Time now 2012-May-23 02:22 UTC.
Position N 19°06' W 086°06'.

Wind from 360 at 15 knots

Barometer 1008.0 mb
Air temperature 30.1 ° C
Dewpoint 20.0 ° C
Water temperature 28.5 ° C
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How does the Caribbean system not even have a "near 0" percent? It looks quite typical of how early season storms form.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it was a nina now neutral going to nino
but it may not be nino till it won't matter but we will get a snowy winter
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Thanks post 690,691,692,and 693.
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I love quick flare up storms like Alberto and 94L, they come and go...and usually are more of a curiosity then anything. Anyways, does 94L not remind you of TD-1 of 1990.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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