Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!


Awe c'mon! No more naked swirls. We need the kind that rain. Lol. Went fishing today on a lake that has fallen a lot since March. Doesn't take long that's for sure. Their NWS Shreveport is hoping for the ridge to work for us for a change.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT ON THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EITHER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMMENCING OR A
TROPICAL/SUB TROPICAL WAVE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA/FLORIDA COAST
AND MOVING WESTWARD...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE RIDGE CAN HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER NEXT WEEK
BEFORE KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY...THERE MAY BE
HOPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF BEGINNING TUESDAY AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
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Looks like nasty for Cape Hatteras start of June Hurricane season!

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768 AllStar17: [GoogleEarth graphics of Alberto and Bob]

Good job. But it appears that whoever drew the graphics (or set up a program to do the graphics) didn't keep track of the re-evaluations&alterations to the coordinates on the ATCF's official report-of-record.
Or I haven't kept track after the RIP, or after 24hours on the still-live storms... which distinctly could be the reason why those paths are somewhat different from what I remember.
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792. Skyepony (Mod)
They turned Windsat on. It's alive! Fresh pass 94L.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
GTcooliebai: Good job, Wunderkid, you have been all over the development of this little bugger.
761 jrweatherman: Nothing has developed yet.
763 wunderkidcayman: Yes, 94L has developed
764 wunderkidcayman: from nothing to 94L, that is development

The 18hours of change from 20knots&1010millibars to 20knots&1009millibars,
then to 25knots&1009millibars, then to 25knots&1008millibars

certainly appears to signal 94L's steady development to me.
Can't think of a better string of positives from the start for any recent Invest.
What-became-HurricaneHumphrey, maybe?
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790. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Well...one could argue that 2007...2008...2003...each having activity before June 1....were all ahead of '05 at the beginning (which had its first storm on June 8). Pre-season activity doesn't show statistical correlation with the number of storms by the end of the season...does it?


Not at all..I thought we were statistically joking..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
Quoting KoritheMan:


UH OH

I believe in 2005 Arlene did not form till June 9th and then Bret formed like the 26th, or thereabouts.
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Hey SouthDadeFish Look at the wind shear over the southern blob, I think you might be right about it becoming the dominant circulation.

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
What I find interesting is that 500mb vorticity has been advecting over Central America today and has now emerged over the Caribbean:



Vorticity at the lower levels is still elongated N-S. Looking at satellite there are two main areas of convection: one on the north side, and one on the south side:



With the aid of more 500mb vorticity, I'm curious if the southern blob may work down its own LLC. This southern area of convection is in fact the remnants of the naked swirl we have been seeing spin around the NW Caribbean over the past several days. I could see how the northern side of convection gets sheared off overnight, while this southern area in more favorable conditions becomes more dominant. Or this could just stay a sheared mess and never develop ;~)


I still vote sheared mess. Does the Navy NRL decide independently of the NHC to Invest things?

Regardless of development...the impacts have already been felt by the way with all the rain in this area.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 426 Comments: 3580
What I find interesting is that 500mb vorticity has been advecting over Central America today and has now emerged over the Caribbean:



Vorticity at the lower levels is still elongated N-S. Looking at satellite there are two main areas of convection: one on the north side, and one on the south side:



With the aid of more 500mb vorticity, I'm curious if the southern blob may work down its own LLC. This southern area of convection is in fact the remnants of the naked swirl we have been seeing spin around the NW Caribbean over the past several days. I could see how the northern side of convection gets sheared off overnight, while this southern area in more favorable conditions becomes more dominant. Or this could just stay a sheared mess and never develop ;~)
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting KoritheMan:


UH OH

Well...one could argue that 2007...2008...2003...each having activity before June 1....were all ahead of '05 at the beginning (which had its first storm on June 8). Pre-season activity doesn't show statistical correlation with the number of storms by the end of the season...does it?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 426 Comments: 3580
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm upset with the current model forecast for the invest in the Caribbean, cause guess what that would likely mean? More beneficial rain for east and southeast Florida, but west central and north Florida would miss out AGAIN.

In fact such a track for a system is a common path that brings dry air into our area here after it passes by to the east. Such an occurrence would likely disrupt the wet season pattern which is wanting to take shape.


I really, really hope the models shift west, or just well east or keep it way, but just east of Florida or southeast Florida is actually worse case scenario, dryness wise for us here in West Central Florida.
That is only part of what is going to happen as high pressure builds over the system and pushes it back west and crosses over FL. But I see what you are saying about the dry air and if the system moves east of the state we will get into a northeast flow that would bring down drier air, so if we really want to put a dent into this drought a track to our west or right over us would be the best case scenario.
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Posted the wrong working copy inre TSBob's vector, MaxSusWinds, and minimum pressure up in comment765. The comment has since been corrected to read:
Its vector had changed from NWest at 15.3mph(24.6k/h) to NWest at 14.5mph(23.3k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at 35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1004millibars

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94L prognosis on my blog....hot off the press for you late night bloggers/lurkers!If u are blogging from the western Caribbean tonight...feel free to comment on impacts (especially rainwise) that you have been seeing. I am curious to know....
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 426 Comments: 3580
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah my local met. Dennis Phillips is favoring this scenario. It looks like a rainy memorial weekend for folks in FL. which sucks for those who have outdoor plans. Orlando Carnival on Sun. hope it doesn't rain out.



I really hope that scenario does happen, it would mean very high rain amounts for all of South and Central Florida, similar tracks have brought lots of rain here locally before. I believe he is thinking that because the developing upper air patterns do tend to favor such a track.


I just hope the models that are curing it across southeast Florida and continue it that way will be wrong, that would mean dryness here.

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Good night guys!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7759
I'm upset with the current model forecast for the invest in the Caribbean, cause guess what that would likely mean? More beneficial rain for east and southeast Florida, but west central and north Florida would miss out AGAIN.

In fact such a track for a system is a common path that brings dry air into our area here after it passes by to the east. Such an occurrence would likely disrupt the wet season pattern which is wanting to take shape.


I really, really hope the models shift west, or just well east or keep it way, but just east of Florida or southeast Florida is actually worse case scenario, dryness wise for us here in West Central Florida.
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777. LBAR
Quoting WxGeekVA:
So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS


That made me laugh! Very clever.
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Quoting Skyepony:


That would put us ahead of '05..


UH OH
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775. Skyepony (Mod)
Very nice TRMM of Bud.. Click image for very large quicktime animation.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
774. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Wouldn't it be something to have Alberto and Beryl before June 1? IIRC, the only other time we had more than one May storm was in 1887.


That would put us ahead of '05..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
773. Skyepony (Mod)


Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
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Wouldn't it be something to have Alberto and Beryl before June 1? IIRC, the only other time we had more than one May storm was in 1887.*

*Do not take this statement to heart, or to represent some sort of portrayed likelihood on my part. I'm just showcasing my knowledge of the Atlantic hurricane database, because tooting my horn is one of my favorite pastimes.
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770. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
Bamm, Bamm, Bamm..

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(click to enlarge; graphics can further be enlarged in Link window)

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767. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


big buds are the best


lol


Indeed...

Bud's Dvorak info. He's strengthening again, after a pretty bad hit. CI is 2.6, even had a irregular CDO briefly.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
from nothing to 94L that is develpoment


Chuck Norris would approve. You have been on this disturbance 24/7. That's dedication
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormBud for 23May12amGMT:
Its ATCF position was 12.6n105.5w
Its vector had changed from NWest at 15.3mph(24.6k/h) to NWest at 14.5mph(23.3k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at 35knots(40mph)65k/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1004millibars

For those who like to visually track TSBud's path... AJS is PuntaAbreojos
SJD is CaboSanLucas . ZLO is Manzanillo . ACA is Acapulco

The easternmost connected dot is where NHC declared 92E to be TropicalDepressionBud
The next dot to the west on that same curved line-segment is where TDBud became TSBud
The southeasternmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position
The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TSBud's 2 most recent positions
to its closest point due south of IslaSocorro's southernmost point
(Sorry, no airport code is available for the naval station there)

The line connecting IslaSocorro and the northwesternmost dot on the straightline-projection represents the distance at which the straightline-projection passes due south of the island
On 23May12amGMT, TSBud was headed toward passing ~57miles(91kilometres) due south of IslaSocorro,Mexico in ~1day8hours from now... which means it's closest approach (ie at a point southwest of IslaSocorro) should be ~0.7 times that distance, or ~40miles(64.3kilometres) from the island... and adds ~2hours40minutes to the time of closest passage.

Copy&paste ajs, sjd, 18.694n110.97w-17.87n110.97w, zlo, lzc, zih, aca, 9.1n99.3w, 9.2n99.9w, 9.3n100.3w, 9.4n100.7w, 9.7n101.6w, 10.2n102.6w, 10.2n102.6w-10.8n103.6w, 10.8n103.6w-11.7n104.6w, 11.7n104.6w-12.6n105.5w, 11.7n104.6w-17.87n110.97w into the GreatCircleMapper.
For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 9.1n99.3w and the first 10.2n102.6w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 10.2n102.6w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison.
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from nothing to 94L that is develpoment
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting jrweatherman:


Nothing has developed yet.

yes 94L has developed
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
94L!!!! Personally I am a bit surprised. I will be putting a special update on my blog in the next hour (for late night bloggers...lurkers). Mainly...it will cover how 94L started and the challenges it faces in terms of tropical development....

I wonder if the NHC will issue a special tropical weather outlook?
Doubt it doesn`t look that organize.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Good job Wunderkid you have been all over the development of this little bugger.


Nothing has developed yet.
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Quoting nigel20:
Tropical Storm Sanvu

 
looks like typhoon Sanvu.
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So based upon the opinions and biases of Wunderbloggers, I spent time designing and programming several computer models for 94L and then graphed the results. Enjoy!



THESE ARE NOT REAL AND SHOULD NOT BE TREATED AS SUCH. I AM NOT A FORECASTER AND I HAVE NO AFFILIATION WITH THE NHC, NOR DID I CREATE ANY COMPUTER MODELS
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
94L!!!! Personally I am a bit surprised. I will be putting a special update on my blog in the next hour (for late night bloggers...lurkers). Mainly...it will cover how 94L started and the challenges it faces in terms of tropical development....

I wonder if the NHC will issue a special tropical weather outlook?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 426 Comments: 3580
Tropical Storm Sanvu

 
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7759
Quoting Skyepony:
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!


big buds are the best


lol
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not if the ridge gets there and blocks it, which would shove it back west. This will be a tricky forecast imo.


I think it's going to be a matter of timing. You're right though, if the high gets stuck then the low will migrate over to the west.

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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


My understanding is that 94l will go ne over Cuba, and south Florida/ bahamas THEN get blocked by the ridge and head west over central Florida into the gulf, into louisiana or Texas.

Yeah my local met. Dennis Phillips is favoring this scenario. It looks like a rainy memorial weekend for folks in FL. which sucks for those who have outdoor plans. Orlando Carnival on Sun. hope it doesn't rain out.
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753. Skyepony (Mod)
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37165
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i know its the nam just for reference


When do the next model plots for 94l come out? 0z?
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i know its the nam just for reference
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Not if the ridge gets there and blocks it, which would shove it back west. This will be a tricky forecast imo.


My understanding is that 94l will go ne over Cuba, and south Florida/ bahamas THEN get blocked by the ridge and head west over central Florida into the gulf, into louisiana or Texas.

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Miami today...



As of 1052 PM... Miami International Airport has recorded 9.70 inches
of rainfall so far today. This shatters the daily maximum rainfall
record for the Miami area... previously 3.44 inches set back in 1901.

This new record also ranks as the 2nd wettest day recorded in Miami
for the month of may... with continuous records dating back to 1895.
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Bud

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7759


Check out this outflow boundary hit some rising moist air from earlier storms and pop new thunderstorms!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting nofailsafe:


Yep, which for all intents and purposes would likely also push 94L up along the Florida peninsula on its way out as that front moves down south across the gulf coast.

Not if the ridge gets there and blocks it, which would shove it back west. This will be a tricky forecast imo.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 00z Surface Analysis.


way too N we will just have to wait till sunrise to find out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.