Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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"Funny how inactive this thread is now when the most dramatic part of Bud's life is occurring. I was just waiting until that nonsense with the LLC to the east of the deep convection stopped after a Kelvin wave moved through and now it might be fully under that dense CDO and if it is, this Bud is ready to burst (aka, explode). Over the last 8 hours, Bud has looked better than it ever has and the CDO is displaying behavior that suggests something dramatic is about to unfold or is. Its size looked much larger but the main part is fairly condensed and tight. Unless you look at the new RBTOP, it doesn't appear as if anything crazy is happening but with this particular imagery, you can see the sign that RI or EI is imminent:

Link

Time sensitive, but look at the rapid swirling going on with the coldest cloud tops, whenever a TC shows that its bombing. The other clue is that the CDO is becoming more curved at the edges and expanding slightly to the east which wasn't happening during the last 30 hours."
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Quoting jrweatherman:


"bla bla bla" when talking Crown Weather? He's pretty good at what he does.


Crown weather nailed Alberto days in advance.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting MahFL:


LOL! Yup it looks like it is going to be an interesting weekend as 94L merges with an upper trough off the FL coast. GFS really ramps this up this weekend.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weak tropical storms don't build eyewalls...this is no weak tropical storm anymore.


...that's no moon...

wait for it....


wait for it....


wait for it....



PINHOLE EYE!
RI!
EI!
DOOM!!!!
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Dry air intrusion...

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Quoting Ameister12:
This isn't a 40mph tropical storm anymore. Probably a moderate to higher end tropical storm right now.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.4mb/ 49.0kt

We better watch Bud for rapid intensification today (if it hasn't already started).

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
It is unlikely to see 94L develop today. The wind shear is very high, but should be retreating in a day or two. Shear Tendency is lessening. The steering currents would certainly indicate a North or Northeast movement over the next few days. There is a strong blocking high in the Atlantic which should keep 94L close to the Southeast Coast and possibly get moved back towards Florida. Too bad no one is going to see this blog. Best one I've done. :)





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836. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
GFS is showing Beryl and Chris hitting FL over the next 9 days. Yikes!!!!em>


Holy crap !
I live in NE FL.
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This isn't a 40mph tropical storm anymore. Probably a moderate to higher end tropical storm right now.
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GFS not only shows what could be Beryl but it also shows an pretty strong system here. Maybe strong Tropical Storm.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
all's i can say is all these lows spinning round out there yall better get some rain up on the tampa area.... just saying.....
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Quoting Ameister12:

Could be.

Weak tropical storms don't build eyewalls...this is no weak tropical storm anymore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Miami NWS Discussion

THE ECMWF AND GFS
DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE W CARIB.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM IN THE CARIB WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH
PERSISTING NEAR S FLA WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW TO OFF OF THE SE
FLA COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BUT AN EFFECT POSSIBLY FOR
THE MARINE PACKAGE. SEEING CURRENT BUOY WINDS/COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SLIDES ACROSS S FLA SATURDAY AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NE
FROM THE S GREAT PLAINS. THIS CUTS THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS S FLA INTO THE GULF
OF MEX. A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A "MORE NORMAL" PATTERN
OF E COAST NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH INTERIOR AND W DIURNALLY. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW THOUGH PULLS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WAS
SHOVED EASTWARD AND BACK OVER S FLA SO MORE RAIN POSSIBLE DOWN THE
ROAD.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Here in Altamonte Springs, near Orlando, we have just had a small series of very intense thunderstorms, dead-center on the Winter Park/Maitland/Altamonte area. Winds really picked up as the red on the radar moved in, gusting easily to 45-50 mph. Tremendous rain and lighting, that, although not excessive, struck way too close for comfort several times. Then, as this was winding down, another storm developed and blew in with the same force as the first storms. Still raining and blustery and refreshingly cool. Okay, now I need to calm down :) Did anybody else catch these storms?


It missed my house by 3 miles but my work area got pounded it appears.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is that a...?


Could be.
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Lots of tree limbs down around my work from last nights storm here in north Orlando. The lightning from this storm last night was wicked.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting stormpetrol:


Vorticity is stronger in that area also!

shear is also low with that one near honduras unlike the one by isle of youth
and low level convergence is the strongest with the honduras low
there is also building convection with the honduras low unlike it northern counter parts by Is. of youth
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
Is that a...?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553


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Our local met here at channel 9 (Tom Terry) says he is favoring a GFS type track and he believes this will be Beryl come Sunday as it comes ashore in C or N FL.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think yeah around the same area

Ithink this one is the true 94L and that is where it should be located also they have that scond low on 06 surface map but I think that is the one that is getting stronger not weaker and disipate


Vorticity is stronger in that area also!
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Here's the good news with all these tropical systems heading for FL is the RAIN!! Infact what could be Beryl may do a Fay type track.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Good morning!

Looking at Bud, I'm sure that Bud's center is not located on the north eastern side of the convection like the NHC discussion states. It's pretty easy to see where the center is.

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GFS is showing Beryl and Chris hitting FL over the next 9 days. Yikes!!!!

Beryl could be a strong tropical storm of hurricane coming ashore in Volusia or Flagler county (Daytona Beach up to St. Augustine).

Sunday Morning



Next Thursday.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
also on sortwave ir you can see the LLC by Isle of youth void of convection and movin W-WSW also the center look like it got smack into a wall and flaten out so honduras looks to be the winner
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
Quoting stormpetrol:



I still see the significant low around 17N/84.5W

I think yeah around the same area

Ithink this one is the true 94L and that is where it should be located also they have that scond low on 06 surface map but I think that is the one that is getting stronger not weaker and disipate
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Very dark in East End and winds are 20-37 mph. Rain has started again.


Good morning, its terrible here very squally!
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Quoting stormpetrol:



I still see the significant low around 17N/84.5W
Good morning. Very dark in East End and winds are 20-37 mph. Rain has started again.
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Possibility the system splits , the Low around the Isle of Youth goes off to the NE and the Low just East of Roatan lingers in the Caribbean, just saying...
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I still see the significant low around 17N/84.5W
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813. MahFL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It honestly feels like the end of June as opposed to the end of May.

Maybe we'll get our first hurricane next month? I wouldn't doubt it with the way conditions are setting up.


Don't exagerate.
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This would create some excitement on the blog:



I'm not sure if it's still fully tropical at that point in the run but it's still interesting.

6z run has it also but a little weaker and way offshore

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Morning everyone...

It looks good, but Bud remains very weak:



Sanvu



Not much change in 94L overnight... Pressure up 1mb, winds stayed the same (according to the ATCF file).

And the SPC has a severe weather threat outlined for day 5, Sunday.
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Quoting luvtogolf:
Crown Weather believes that if anything develops, it will be off of the SE US coast.


At this point, I think development of Invest 94-L is unlikely today through Thursday due to very strong wind shear values. Now, should an area of low pressure develop along the US Southeast coast this weekend, some sort of sub-tropical or tropical development is possible as environmental conditions will be somewhat favorable for development and this is something that will need to be monitored closely.

I noticed in the past he like E coast system to develop there hey it won't develop till it reaches E coast it will move to the E coast and become stronger bla bla bla I say just watch and see what happens
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
Crown Weather believes that if anything develops, it will be off of the SE US coast.


At this point, I think development of Invest 94-L is unlikely today through Thursday due to very strong wind shear values. Now, should an area of low pressure develop along the US Southeast coast this weekend, some sort of sub-tropical or tropical development is possible as environmental conditions will be somewhat favorable for development and this is something that will need to be monitored closely.
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well guys it looks like the cuba low has fully spit out its LLC naked and visible on shortwave ir at 22N 84W moving W the center looks like it got slaped on the wall got squashed flat and void of convection looks like honduras low will win the battle
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
807. VR46L
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM HONDURAS BEYOND THE EASTERN HALF
OF CUBA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 23N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE TROUGH STARTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...REACHING
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N84W...CROSSING
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND
86W...FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AND IN EXTREME
NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
EAST CENTRAL COASTAL NICARAGUA.

Can someone tell me how this is 94L? As it has not been called that By the NHC. I see the Navy has called it AL94 but do they have different guidelines to the NHC?

Thanking you in advance
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hey can some tell me what the hell is going on cause I know for sure that 94L is not at 20N 83W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12695
(Just setting up the template cuz if 94L were to undergo RapidIntensification, it's too close to land to waste time typing. But the info that's posted below is either factual, or my best opinion)
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 94L on 23May6amGMT:
18.5n84.3w has been re-evaluated&altered
19.1n83.7w, 20.0n83.0w are now the newest positions

The difference between 18.5n84.3w and 19.1n83.7w is ~57miles(92kilometres) or ~0.83degrees,
which is a big enough gap to tell me that the NHC doesn't have a handle on the system as of yet.

Its ATCF position was 20.0n83.0w
Its vector had increased from NEast at 13.5mph(21.8k/h) to NEast at 12.8mph(20.7k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at ~25knots(29mph)46k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 1008millibars to 1009millibars

For those who like to visually track 94L's path...EYW is KeyWest
LYB is LittleCayman . PND is PuntaGorda,Belize . BHG is BrusLaguna,Honduras

The southwesternmost point on the connected line-segments is where NHC initiated 94L
The nothernmost point on the connected line-segments is its most recent position

Copy&paste eyw, lyb, pnd, bhg, 18.0n86.0w-18.0n85.4w, 18.0n85.4w-18.0n84.9w, 18.0n84.9w-18.2n84.5w, 18.2n84.5w-19.1n83.7w, 19.1n83.7w-20.0n83.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

Don't bother clicking. This is the most recent previous mapping (of TSBob to complete the template. Tol'ja not to click.) for comparison.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108

... Flood Watch in effect through late tonight...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida... including the
following areas... coastal Miami Dade... far South Miami Dade...
inland Miami Dade and Metro Miami Dade.

* Through late tonight

* the combination of saturated grounds and standing water from the
heavy rainfall that occurred yesterday over portions of Miami Dade
County and the concern for additional periods with heavy
rainfall through Wednesday over these same areas has resulted in
a Flood Watch. Additional widespread accumulations ranging from
1 to 2 inches today through Wednesday night will be possible. As
typically observed during these events, locally higher amounts
will certainly remain possible over the areas where the heavy
rainfall becomes concentrated.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is the potential for flooding based on
the latest rainfall forecasts. Those living in areas prone to
flooding or those who have recently experienced flooding should be
prepared to take action should additional flooding develops.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings.





Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41108
...........Miami is in big trouble
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Dunno who's still up, but here's a blog from me to you. Enjoy it. Or not. I don't really care. :P
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Pre-season activity doesn't show statistical correlation with the number of storms by the end of the season...does it?


Yes. We're all doomed. The next one's going to New Orleans.
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the two players
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792 Skyepony They turned Windsat on. It's alive!

Thank goodness. Ever since they allowed SeaSCAT to die-without-a-replacement-ready well past its design-lifetime, it feels like a LOT of weather satellites have been dropping out without a replacement ready well past their design lifetimes.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Miami max rainfall today maybe a bad sign. 12ZGeos-5 has 94L drowning SFL as it sits to the SW never really forming, just spitting naked swirls toward TX.

That Bud is huge!


Awe c'mon! No more naked swirls. We need the kind that rain. Lol. Went fishing today on a lake that has fallen a lot since March. Doesn't take long that's for sure. Their NWS Shreveport is hoping for the ridge to work for us for a change.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY CONSISTENT ON THIS RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH EITHER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMMENCING OR A
TROPICAL/SUB TROPICAL WAVE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA/FLORIDA COAST
AND MOVING WESTWARD...UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ENTERING THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO. IF THE RIDGE CAN HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER NEXT WEEK
BEFORE KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY...THERE MAY BE
HOPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF BEGINNING TUESDAY AND HOPE FOR THE BEST.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.