Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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95. Skyepony (Mod)
Anyone e-mail Bob Hart about FSU's Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields not updating in a few days? Cyclone phase analysis page is still working.

Long live Bud!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
912 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

AMZ650-221345-
912 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

AT 909 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 33 KNOTS ABOUT
OVER MANALAPAN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

MULTIPLE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED ABOUT A FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPING A FEW
MILES EAST OF BOYNTON BEACH.

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WIND
AND HIGH WAVES. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.

LAT...LON 2656 7995 2652 8000 2653 8004 2659 8004
2660 8000

$$

RIVERA


Strong Thunderstorms coming in around the Nature Coast as well. It looks as if some strong to severe pulse type severe cells may pop today across C & N FL.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Here we go again: some big-time record-tying and/or record-setting heat is expected across the Mid-South and the Ohio River Valley this weekend. Here are a few forecast temperatures for Saturday and Sunday:

Evansville, IN: 98 Saturday; 100 Sunday (it's never been more than 96 in May, and it's never reached 100 before June 7)
Paducah, KY: 99; 100 (it's never been more than 96 in May, and it's never reached 100 before June 14)
Cape Girardeau, MO: 97; 98
Louisville, KY: 97; 98 (highest May temp ever there: 98)
Memphis, TN: 96; 98 (highest May temp ever there: 98)

Seems a little early for the triple-digit stuff. But we're getting used to it--or will soon enough.

Hot
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

and if we do get a storm what are you going to do huh


yeah agree but that is at 20N far away from our system in the GOH
Sit back and watch it and hope it would turn into a cat 5 monster i love hurricanes and i love to be in them.
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TS Bud, Rainbow Image


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Quoting LargoFl:


Sure hope Bud brings some moisture into Texas.
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shear in 12 hours
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
.
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belize radar good spin but low on convection
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Thanks Dr. Masters...good morning all!
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The ECMWF and GFS have been on an off with moisture and energy from the Caribbean disturbance moving off the East Coast and developing into a tropical cyclone that retrogrades westward into Florida over the weekend. With the upcoming pattern it will need to be watched closely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
02E TS "BUD" Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop


..click image for Loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
912 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

AMZ650-221345-
912 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

AT 909 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 33 KNOTS ABOUT
OVER MANALAPAN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

MULTIPLE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED ABOUT A FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPING A FEW
MILES EAST OF BOYNTON BEACH.

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WIND
AND HIGH WAVES. MOVE TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.

LAT...LON 2656 7995 2652 8000 2653 8004 2659 8004
2660 8000

$$

RIVERA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting belizeit:
No Problem i hope he learns from this when the skys clear and no name comes out of it.

and if we do get a storm what are you going to do huh

Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
wind shear of 50 way to high for any tropical storm

yeah agree but that is at 20N far away from our system in the GOH
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Tropical Depression Alberto will be a post tropical very soon!!!
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Bud should throw some moisture into Southeast TX when its all said and done, unless the forecast track changes.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Not many sources closer to the actual low however, speeds are supportive of a TD.



Broad low pressure area down there this morning. Although pressures have lowered a bit there are no signs of orginzation and models arent doing much with it.
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wind shear of 50 way to high for any tropical storm
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes there is but you are not look for it that is what you should say


No, I meant what I said in reference to the map I posted, nothing different.
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Quoting jeffs713:

subtlety isn't my strongest point. Oops. :/

(wunderkidcayman has been claiming shear has been a lot lower than reality for the past week or so... he seems to find the small spot with low shear, and extrapolate it out to a massive area)
No Problem i hope he learns from this when the skys clear and no name comes out of it.
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Quoting belizeit:
I wanted wunderkidcayman to answer that ! And because of the modeling we have seen storms being torn apart when the shear was less than 10 knots because of modeling errors.
That was my point.  There is very tight gradient across the area as well and a just a bit of error can make the map almost meaning less at times.  Shear is very high across that region.  There appears to be way too many factors acting against this disturbance right now.  It looks very monsoonal in nature, Is it still attached to a front?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No yellow circle yet though. Rainy and gloomy in East End again. BTW, good morning.


I wish we could say the same here in Central Florida; another HOT, sunny and dry day today. It actually is not so bad in the shade since the mugginess hasn't kicked in yet, but the afternoon sun in brutal.

Are the latest model runs providing any support for future development of the AOI near Roatan in the GOH? The wind reports this morning are slightly interesting.

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T# for Bud
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 MAY 2012 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 10:41:44 N Lon : 103:26:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1007.9mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -35.7C Cloud Region Temp : -41.5C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:29:23 N Lon: 103:50:23 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 40km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.2 degrees

Lol, now wouldn't that be a curve ball!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical cyclone names are determined by the World Meteorological Organizaton. The words' origins differ.


Thank you, I wasn't sure!
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Quoting Patrap:
GOES-13 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.



Moran. :)
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Quoting belizeit:
I wanted wunderkidcayman to answer that ! And because of the modeling we have seen storms being torn apart when the shear was less than 10 knots because of modeling errors.

subtlety isn't my strongest point. Oops. :/

(wunderkidcayman has been claiming shear has been a lot lower than reality for the past week or so... he seems to find the small spot with low shear, and extrapolate it out to a massive area)
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
Interesting feature in the GOH, and where did the name Bud come from? a famous met? where do they get the names in the EPAC?

Tropical cyclone names are determined by the World Meteorological Organizaton. The words' origins differ.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32692
I believe Alberto is dead.
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Interesting feature in the GOH, and where did the name Bud come from? a famous met? where do they get the names in the EPAC?
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Models are showing a easterly flow increasing and as that happens thunderstorms are expected to stack up along the westernside of FL this weekend.

good morning stormtracker, missed ya around here, yes we need the rains around tampa bay for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41628
Quoting jeffs713:

Its a combination of satellite info and computer modeling.
I wanted wunderkidcayman to answer that ! And because of the modeling we have seen storms being torn apart when the shear was less than 10 knots because of modeling errors.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Not many sources closer to the actual low however, speeds are supportive of a TD.


yes there is but you are not look for it that is what you should say
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting belizeit:
Do you know what instrument or from where they get the information to make the shear map?

Its a combination of satellite info and computer modeling.
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Not many sources closer to the actual low however, speeds are supportive of a TD.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GOES-13 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
shear right now is 10-20kt in the GOH now as of 12Z
Do you know what instrument or from where they get the information to make the shear map?
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rotan honduras has SW at 19kt
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710


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Quoting utilaeastwind:
Utila, Bay Islands, Honduras 16.1N 86.9W

We have had rain pretty much all night. The wind is now picking up from the West @ approximately 10 kts


Thanks as this supports what I'm seeing on the visible images.


Link
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Utila, Bay Islands, Honduras 16.1N 86.9W

We have had rain pretty much all night. The wind is now picking up from the West @ approximately 10 kts
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Quoting intampa:
ok someone get on the phone and get some of that rain up to tampa...i know some of yall have "connections" we need rain... mars needs women...


Models are showing a easterly flow increasing and as that happens thunderstorms are expected to stack up along the westernside of FL this weekend.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
shear right now is 10-20kt in the GOH now as of 12Z
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting ILwthrfan:

What are we looking at with shear?  Wasn't there a widespread area of 30 knot yesterday stretching from the GOH all the way to Bermuda?
Judging from the visible that looks every bit as strong as it was  yesterday.

that is why we don't look at shear using visible
shear has drop quite a bit in the GOH and is expected to drop to about 5-15kt within 12 hours in the GOH and NW caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Off to work now so catch you all later
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in term of track I think it will be a ENE-NE track moving through Cayman Islands Cuba and Central-NW bahamas maybe making it to bermuda
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's a link of the circulation in the
GOH. It's quite impressive!

Link
What are we looking at with shear?  Wasn't there a widespread area of 30 knot yesterday stretching from the GOH all the way to Bermuda?
Judging from the visible that looks every bit as strong as it was  yesterday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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