Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7849
144. mati
Quoting wxmod:


Japan is one of the most active earthquake regions in the world. It is absolutely astounding that these power plants were ever built. Every scientific mind knows Murphy's law. Before these plants are cleaned up they WILL be knocked down. All the rest of the world can do is shake our heads in amazement!


AHhhh dont listen to quotes from marginal "experts" like Arnie Gundersen...
Link
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Shear has decreased according to this!


STJ is supposed to slowly lift Nwards through the week as will the shear & moisture with it. Configuration of the STJ will depict where the area will go. NWS has it clipping Extreme SFL ATM.
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Quoting Grothar:


The GFS, NOPGAPS, and EURO are are calling for development, but at different times this week. It appears NOGAPS wants to move it North faster, but it would appear now, it may be too aggresive. Besides, I am not getting back to Florida until Thursday, so it will have to wait.

LOL.

Yeah, I noticed how the models are all forecasting development. They've been anything but consistent on the timing, which is why I'm so reluctant to agree with anyone saying it should be popping soon. Right now, it is like picking a 10-mile section of freeway, and saying "there will be major traffic here sometime today".
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Quoting jeffs713:

Mornin', Grothar.

I agree it has very strong convection, and it will definitely take some time to get rolling. Shear is its biggest enemy right now.


The GFS, NOPGAPS, and EURO are are calling for development, but at different times this week. It appears NOGAPS wants to move it North faster, but it would appear now, it may be too aggresive. Besides, I am not getting back to Florida until Thursday, so it will have to wait.
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Quoting Grothar:




Shear tendency is lessening. It would be a day or two for anything to get going. Very strong convection though.


Mornin', Grothar.

I agree it has very strong convection, and it will definitely take some time to get rolling. Shear is its biggest enemy right now.
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Floater is up on RAMSDIS site:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448




Shear tendency is lessening. It would be a day or two for anything to get going. Very strong convection though.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Just noting based on some of the discussion and comments as we head into another Atlantic Season on the Blog that tropical forecasting is a science and "feelings" about what might happen in a few days or weeks, as opposed to educated guesses based on actual available data, are not very well received on here by some folks.

Now is a good time to start getting familiar with all of the models (and the links to them) which will be the topic of informed discussions on here for the next several months.

Here is one good link and I sure others will post some additional ones:

Link



I have a feeling you're right.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I believe we have a much better chance of seeing tropical development in the Caribbean next week as pressures rise across the East USA.

Upper-level pressures...right?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 439 Comments: 3605
This Bud's for you...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10976
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Just noting based on some of the discussion and comments as we head into another Atlantic Season on the Blog that tropical forecasting is a science and "feelings" about what might happen in a few days or weeks, as opposed to educated guesses based on actual available data, are not very well received on here by some folks.

Now is a good time to start getting familiar with all of the models (and the links to them) which will be the topic of informed discussions on here for the next several months.

Here is one good link and I sure others will post some additional ones:

Link


Great post here.
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Quoting stormpetrol:




These Obs would support that!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 12z Surface Analysis continues to have the low pressure in Western Caribbean.


it is simpley they put the surface low in the wrong place on the surface map now on visible sat loop plus belize radar loop show the low to be located near 16.5N 86.5W moving east one radar show the circulation a slightly elongated925 vort show it in same location but I am not sure about the vort I will have to wait till the 1500 maps come out
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11029
Good Morning. Just noting based on some of the discussion and comments as we head into another Atlantic Season on the Blog that tropical forecasting is a science and "feelings" about what might happen in a few days or weeks, as opposed to educated guesses based on actual available data, are not very well received on here by some folks.

Now is a good time to start getting familiar with all of the models (and the links to them) which will be the topic of informed discussions on here for the next several months.

Here is one good link and I sure others will post some additional ones:

Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
The area in the Western Caribbean is really no farther along than it has been the whole time. In fact, the circulation may be more broad than it has been as I can't find a definitive center anymore. I thought it was the area just east of Belize, but it doesn't match up with vorticity maps or convergence maps. It looks like the main area of low pressure wants to develop northeast of there. If that happens, it's over for this system as shear doesn't just go up, it gets hostile the farther north you go (60-70kts). I gave this a small chance at becoming something yesterday, but I don't feel it has much of any chance now. It may be that another area forms once this low ejects out to the northeast in a couple of days as persistent low pressure is shown in the Western Caribbean for a while on the models.

850mb Vort



Convergence


Wind Shear

I agree with you. It has a chance, but not much of one. Its more a curiosity than anything else right now.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Shear has decreased according to this!

Right, the lines are a 12-hour trend.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 12z Surface Analysis continues to have the low pressure in Western Caribbean.


Moving directly into the area of greatest shear. Also, this surface map doesn't match up with the 850mb vort map, which means either one is completely wrong, or the system is completely decoupled between the surface and 850mb vort max.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The 12z Surface Analysis continues to have the low pressure in Western Caribbean.



These Obs would support that!
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I see the low level circulation and it is really good
it just need some convection which I say should come soon but we just have to wait and see

Link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11029


Max wind speed today 39mph.
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The 12z Surface Analysis continues to have the low pressure in Western Caribbean.

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Where are you getting those numbers? It is forecast to be hot there, yes, but I didn't find a single location calling for more than a hot but not extreme 95*F.

Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis

While I do agree with you that places in the north like the ones listed above are going to be experiencing some very abnormal heat, I just don't see where you are pulling triple digit highs from.

[EDIT] Poor choice of words calling 95*F not extreme for them. While a somewhat regular occurrence further south, it is definitely extreme for places further north like that. My mind was in Texas mode. :P


We still have some time for the forecast to change, but certain looks like a strong ridge coming in to play again, making it conducive for much above temps.

NWS forecasts seem to be in the middle or near the lower end of forecasts for this coming week, however...

Use Evansville, IN, as an example:
http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=USA/IN/Evansvi lle
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/im age_loader.phtml?site=kevv
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looking bad here again!
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Quoting jeffs713:

I have no problem waiting, but I will point out that you've been saying to wait another 12-24 hours for several days now.

At this rate, we may have a storm from this in July.

true but it hadn't truly let off til monday but now it is
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11029
The area in the Western Caribbean is really no farther along than it has been the whole time. In fact, the circulation may be more broad than it has been as I can't find a definitive center anymore. I thought it was the area just east of Belize, but it doesn't match up with vorticity maps or convergence maps. It looks like the main area of low pressure wants to develop northeast of there. If that happens, it's over for this system as shear doesn't just go up, it gets hostile the farther north you go (60-70kts). I gave this a small chance at becoming something yesterday, but I don't feel it has much of any chance now. It may be that another area forms once this low ejects out to the northeast in a couple of days as persistent low pressure is shown in the Western Caribbean for a while on the models.

850mb Vort



Convergence


Wind Shear
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Goodbye Alberto, we hardly knew thee!


...ALBERTO BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
11:00 AM EDT Tue May 2

000
WTNT41 KNHC 221438
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON ALBERTO.
THE CYCLONE NOW LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING
DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.

THE REMNANT LOW OF ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 045/15. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
IDENTITY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 33.1N 74.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0000Z 34.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 36.8N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting belizeit:
Wunderkid i see a eye has formed

I don't know is the hurricane at your house yet did you marry her yet
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11029


Shear has decreased according to this!
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117. Jax82
Quoting jeffs713:

broken link


try now.

Link
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116. wxmod
Big dust storms in progress all over the place. MODIS today

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I believe we have a much better chance of seeing tropical development in the Caribbean next week as pressures rise across the East USA.
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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

WITHOUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE
CENTER OF BUD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH DOES KEEP THE CENTER
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. MANUAL AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL YIELD AN INTENSITY AROUND 35
KT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING WESTWARD...AND BUD IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACK
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODELS FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. BUD SHOULD STILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3 WHEN IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...BUT SEVERAL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREVENTING
BUD FROM REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST. THE ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER ON DAY 3...BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAIN
CLUSTER OF MODELS...BUT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS BUD STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO AT DAYS 4
AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ON THOSE DAYS.

APPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO
AFFECT BUD. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
WILL BE DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER
NORTH. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO TONE
DOWN THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW
RELATIVELY WARM UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE BIGGEST
LIMITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL
SHOWS BUD REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW
A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 11.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
let us wait and see what happens over the next 12-24 hours shall we

I have no problem waiting, but I will point out that you've been saying to wait another 12-24 hours for several days now.

At this rate, we may have a storm from this in July.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Yes, even the slightly lower NWS numbers would be daily--and in some case monthly--records. But I pulled my numbers from the very reliable Intellicast.

Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis

What, you think I make stuff up? ;-)

You mean forecasting is more than making it up?!?! :P

All joking aside, I honestly completely forgot about Intellicast, so all I saw were numbers higher than I was seeing and not knowing where they came from.
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let us wait and see what happens over the next 12-24 hours shall we
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11029
108. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Nuclear Engineer:

Unit 4 is weakened I think about a M7.0-M7.5 quake will knock that building to the ground

The fuel is still hot enough where it can begin to burn cesium and plutonium and all that

It would volatilize as the fuel burns, it creates a pyrophoric fire which is a fire that water cannot put out.

Likely resulting in an evacuation of Tokyo at the least, and potentially contamination of the entire northern hemisphere.

[...] Experts from around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of the No. 4 reactor building. [...]

Mitsuhei Murata, former ambassador to Switzerland, also told an Upper House hearing in March that another accident at the reactor building could cause the final catastrophe of the world. [...]

-------------------------

Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Nuclear Engineer: This is the sleeper as far as Im concerned.

Unit 3 has about half the nuclear fuel in its pool than Unit 4 does.

Some of it is still quite hot.

It had been removed about 6 months before the meltdowns.

So it has a hot enough quarter of a core that it could burn in air.

And of course the Unit 3 building is fatally flawed.

So my concern is the same problem on Unit 4 could occur on Unit 3, we seem to just worry about Unit 4.


Japan is one of the most active earthquake regions in the world. It is absolutely astounding that these power plants were ever built. Every scientific mind knows Murphy's law. Before these plants are cleaned up they WILL be knocked down. All the rest of the world can do is shake our heads in amazement!
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Wunderkid i see a eye has formed
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

dude you are insaine crazy its not going to be a hurricane I say if it does develop the most it would become is a TS and there is something wrong with you if you love hurricanes you know what next time a hurricane come prep a wedding when she come go out and marry her when she does but though she may slap you in you face with a piece of zinc or somthing look I like storm cause of there usefullness like not love unlike you

Dude... he was mocking you.

You've been wishcasting this system for a week, claiming the shear was much lower than reality, and stating it should get better in 12-24 hours for several days now.

Right now, this system has several things against it:
1. High shear. One area is under moderate to low-shear, but most of the system is under high shear (20+ kt)... including the 850mb vort max.
2. Broad circulation. The bigger the circulation, the longer a system will take to organize.
3. A non-stacked low pressure. If you look at the vort maps, they aren't lined up. 850 and 700mb are lined up, but there isn't any 500mb vort near it.
4. No significant thunderstorm activity near the rough CoC. Tropical systems can't survive without thunderstorm activity.
5. Dry air is right next to the system. Anything that spins up will get a heaping helping of dry air from the GOM sucked into it.
6. Most of the thunderstorm activity is being driven by upper divergence. The lower convergence is north of the Cayman Islands, while the center of the upper divergence is south, over the thunderstorm activity off the coast of Nicaragua.

I know you think this thing can get spinning, but it has a LONG way to go before becoming anything worthy of a TD, much less a name. When you are disputing facts with more than half the blog, please consider that someone else may be pointing out something that you've missed. Also, the fact that you are very close to the system would lead to a stronger bias towards development. In other words, you are looking at things more subjectively, rather than objectively. (weather is an objective science)
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Where are you getting those numbers? It is forecast to be hot there, yes, but I didn't find a single location calling for more than a hot but not extreme 95*F.

Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis

While I do agree with you that places in the north like the ones listed above are going to be experiencing some very abnormal heat, I just don't see where you are pulling triple digit highs from.

[EDIT] Poor choice of words calling 95*F not extreme for them. While a somewhat regular occurrence further south, it is definitely extreme for places further north like that. My mind was in Texas mode. :P
Yes, even the slightly lower NWS numbers would be daily--and in some case monthly--records. But I pulled my numbers from the very reliable Intellicast.

Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis

What, you think I make stuff up? ;-)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...


CURRENT-TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTHEAST GULF...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD FOR LATE MAY WITH 500MB READINGS AT
MINUS 12 TO 13 CELSIUS
. LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS
PROVIDING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SEND A
BOUNDARY INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHICH WOULD INTERACT WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO GET STORMS GOING LOCALLY. STORMS SHOULD
BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL SECTIONS. THIS SHOULD BE QUITE LATE
IN THE DAY THOUGH DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

ALSO SOME STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH DUE TO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BOUNDARY INTERACTION. SOME OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THIS CONVECTION TOWARDS
CENTRAL SECTIONS.

NORMALLY WE WOULD BE ANTICIPATING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH STORMS ZIPPERING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS OCCURRING IN CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED.

HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Here we go again: some big-time record-tying and/or record-setting heat is expected across the Mid-South and the Ohio River Valley this weekend. Here are a few forecast temperatures for Saturday and Sunday:

Evansville, IN: 98 Saturday; 100 Sunday (it's never been more than 96 in May, and it's never reached 100 before June 7)
Paducah, KY: 99; 100 (it's never been more than 96 in May, and it's never reached 100 before June 14)
Cape Girardeau, MO: 97; 98
Louisville, KY: 97; 98 (highest May temp ever there: 98)
Memphis, TN: 96; 98 (highest May temp ever there: 98)

Seems a little early for the triple-digit stuff. But we're getting used to it--or will soon enough.

Hot
Thank god for the half inch of rain we got a couple days ago.  We were on our third week of no rain here.  We are down 6-8 inches for the season and we need much more, but we will take it.  We had 93 and 94 respectively on the 19th and 20th.  Because it is already so dry up here, we have been exceeding forecasted high temperatures on warm days up here by 5-8 F.  Models have been over doing the moisture in the air around here.  I hope this isn't a reoccurring pattern for the summer setting up this season.


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102. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I see my map is from the 20th, thanks for that. That's what I get for assuming.



Guess I should have put all that together & said something sooner..I noticed yesterday morning that was late updating all the models. There has been some form of an underlying some shear maps are wrong debate going on a day or more now here.

Y'all elect someone to E-mail Bob, find out what's up. I'm out for now.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37352
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here we go again: some big-time record-tying and/or record-setting heat is expected across the Mid-South and the Ohio River Valley this weekend. Here are a few forecast temperatures for Saturday and Sunday:

Evansville, IN: 98 Saturday; 100 Sunday (it's never been more than 96 in May, and it's never reached 100 before June 7)
Paducah, KY: 99; 100 (it's never been more than 96 in May, and it's never reached 100 before June 14)
Cape Girardeau, MO: 97; 98
Louisville, KY: 97; 98 (highest May temp ever there: 98)
Memphis, TN: 96; 98 (highest May temp ever there: 98)

Seems a little early for the triple-digit stuff. But we're getting used to it--or will soon enough.

Hot

Where are you getting those numbers? It is forecast to be hot there, yes, but I didn't find a single location calling for more than a hot but not extreme 95*F.

Evansville
Paducah
Cape Girardeau
Louisville
Memphis

While I do agree with you that places in the north like the ones listed above are going to be experiencing some very abnormal heat, I just don't see where you are pulling triple digit highs from.

[EDIT] Poor choice of words calling 95*F not extreme for them. While a somewhat regular occurrence further south, it is definitely extreme for places further north like that. My mind was in Texas mode. :P
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I see my map is from the 20th, thanks for that. That's what I get for assuming.


Ooo. Good catch. I didn't even see that. I was wondering why the GFS still wasn't picking up on that disturbance in the GOH.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Anyone e-mail Bob Hart about FSU's Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields not updating in a few days? Cyclone phase analysis page is still working.

Long live Bud!


I see my map is from the 20th, thanks for that. That's what I get for assuming.
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Quoting belizeit:
Sit back and watch it and hope it would turn into a cat 5 monster i love hurricanes and i love to be in them.

dude you are insaine crazy its not going to be a hurricane I say if it does develop the most it would become is a TS and there is something wrong with you if you love hurricanes you know what next time a hurricane come prep a wedding when she come go out and marry her when she does but though she may slap you in you face with a piece of zinc or somthing look I like storm cause of there usefullness like not love unlike you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11029
Don't be surprised to see some bigtime storms across the north half of FL as an upper air disturbance is diving SE toward N FL and dewpoints have risen into the upper 60's to low 70's across E C FL.

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"Bye Alberto!"

"Thanks for the fun waves. Tell your friends to come and visit us again!"

:)
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95. Skyepony (Mod)
Anyone e-mail Bob Hart about FSU's Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields not updating in a few days? Cyclone phase analysis page is still working.

Long live Bud!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37352

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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