Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Anyone see the GFS loop. It moves the system over Florida, into the Bahamas, back to Florida and into Louisiana.

Link


Fine, I can deal with it in May...
But I would be pleased if you Floridians withheld sharing such gifts toward us in Louisiana come Aug-Sep, as you have previously with Betsy, Andrew and Katrina!
Thank you...
;)
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Alberto was blocked by a similar ridge for a time. The chances of the ridge redeveloping in that location are rather high.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone see the GFS loop. It moves the system over Florida, into the Bahamas, back to Florida and into Louisiana.

Link


Looks like a Fay type track with 2 maybe 3 landfalls in FL. Talk about ending the drought in FL if this were to come to pass.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks like another Alberto set up but this time it gets pushed west instead of NE as a ridge will block it to the north from going NE.


Looking at recent past history, I could envision that happening.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting fortpiercecane1:
Wonder if we will see any tidbits from Levi coming up?
I would say certainly.
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convection is starting to kick back on right on top of the low level center of circulation near Rotan
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Anyone see the GFS loop. It moves the system over Florida, into the Bahamas, back to Florida and into Louisiana.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The pattern Definitely favors something trying to get going off the southeast coast as I mentioned a little while ago.


Looks like another Alberto set up but this time it gets pushed west instead of NE as a ridge will block it to the north from going NE.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
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GFS jumping back onboard is classic. Many times we see this where models will see something long range and then drop it, only to pick it back up close to the time of development. Add to that the increase of moisture, presence of a surface low and warm ssts, we may have something brewing here
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Wonder if we will see any tidbits from Levi coming up?
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184. txjac
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
For all of those that do not already know the private sector took a huge step in space last night. Falcon9 a SpaceX rocket was the first commercial rocket to ever be sent to the ISS.
Launch video: Link


Very nice link, thanks for posting
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The first RIP is always the best rip.....


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For all of those that do not already know the private sector took a huge step in space last night. Falcon9 a SpaceX rocket was the first commercial rocket to ever be sent to the ISS.
Launch video: Link
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181. TXCWC


Beryl says hello to Florida in 3-5 days according to 12Z GFS. Also worth noting 0Z Euro shows something off of East Coast of Florida as well within same time frame. If 12Z run agrees then will be something to keep an eye on for sure.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx 13,some shear is still impacting Bud as the center is still to the east of the convection.


Yeah, it'll lessen as we head into tonight and tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Quoting MississippiWx:


If the vorticity at the upper levels is being displaced by shear, then shear can't be "low" in that spot. If this is the lowest shear it's going to encounter, then it is doomed. Right now, it's competing with the 850mb vort for dominance and it's losing as all of the convergence is associated with the 850 vort.

the low is located just off of rotan no doubts about that and in that area is 10-20kt wind now those upper level winds are expected to die down further in \ larger area too so just wait and give it some time and lets see what happens
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Tx 13,some shear is still impacting Bud as the center is still to the east of the convection.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14896
i think i see the face of wilma just ne of GOH

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this is infact the upgrade in the 12Z GFS then FL better watch out for a mischief this weekend.

The pattern Definitely favors something trying to get going off the southeast coast as I mentioned a little while ago.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32830
Hi everyone, I just posted a new blog entry mainly focusing on the potential for development in the Caribbean over the next couple of days. For anyone interested:

Link
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Quoting nigel20:

No, not at the moment, but the Met Office is keeping an eye on the situation.


XX/AOI/XL


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56059
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning again.

The surface low is located immediately North of the island of Roatan. I have centered it in this image. The 850 mb vorticity at 4600 feet is displaced well to the NE of the low due to SW shear. Put another way, the circulation is tilted on its axis in height from the SW to the NE. The thing to watch for now is whether the low can spin up and consolidate where it is as shear is relatively low there.





If the vorticity at the upper levels is being displaced by shear, then shear can't be "low" in that spot. If this is the lowest shear it's going to encounter, then it is doomed. Right now, it's competing with the 850mb vort for dominance and it's losing as all of the convergence is associated with the 850 vort.
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Quoting aspectre:

Skies over McAllen,Texas -- Delcia Lopez for The Monitor (Larger version)


Gorgeous photo but what kind of cloud formations are those?
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Tropical Storm Sanvu
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
If this is infact the upgrade in the 12Z GFS then FL better watch out for a mischief this weekend.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Doubt there will be anything organized, just a lot of rain.


you know half of the time that map isn't right
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS takes the blob in the Caribbean and moves up to S FL then off to the NE north of the Bahamas then moves it back west into FL on Sunday as potentially Beryl.


"Nuttin But Net"
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting kmanislander:


I do not see much convection down there at all,all sheared away to the NE. Conditions are just too hostile for development right now IMO.

ok take a look at convection spots 16.3N 86.6W(#1) and 16.5N 85.2W (#2)yes I know they are weak and small bit also in an area with 10-20kt shear that is falling slowly
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Quoting kmanislander:


Heading your way. I hope your Government has flash flood warnings out.

No, not at the moment, but the Met Office is keeping an eye on the situation.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
12Z GFS takes what could be Beryl across FL and has it over Tampa Sunday afternoon.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR CITRUS..HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...
POLK...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH HIGH ERC
VALUES WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RED FLAG WARNING AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FLZ042-048-049-051-052-060-230000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0028.120522T1700Z-120523T0000Z/
CITRUS-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-SARASOTA-
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...CITRUS...HERNANDO...PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...
POLK...SARASOTA.

* WIND...SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...FALLING TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$

JCM/RKR
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12Z GFS takes the blob in the Caribbean and moves up to S FL then off to the NE north of the Bahamas then moves it back west into FL on Sunday as potentially Beryl.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
little spin showing on the latest visible near the tip of cuba as for the call on the epac of dr masters not a good situation hopefully it moves west as soon as the trough moves out
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes kman also to note there is just the start of convention building back on both sides of the circulation via ir sat loop


I do not see much convection down there at all,all sheared away to the NE. Conditions are just too hostile for development right now IMO.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS shows potentially Beryl forming off the FL east coast and moving back west this weekend.


we sure could use its rain here in central florida
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12Z GFS shows potentially Beryl forming off the FL east coast and moving back west this weekend.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting nigel20:
Very strong convection to the south west of Jamaica


Heading your way. I hope your Government has flash flood warnings out.
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Daily SOI: -0.29
30 day SOI: 0.54
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Intresting... None of the local mets are talking about this..

Memorial Day Weekend is a big boost for the tourism down here.. Miami International Airport is expecting over 110,000 passengers a day... If a tropical depression or tropical storm clipped the area. The economy would be hurt.

Yesterday all the models had it over the Bahamas, now they have it between Florida and the Bahamas.

I don't think it will ever reach tropical storm status, as shear will kill it off faster than Alberto.


Doubt there will be anything organized, just a lot of rain.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning again.

The surface low is located immediately North of the island of Roatan. I have centered it in this image. The 850 mb vorticity at 4600 feet is displaced well to the NE of the low due to SW shear. Put another way, the circulation is tilted on its axis in height from the SW to the NE. The thing to watch for now is whether the low can spin up and consolidate where it is as shear is relatively low there.




yes kman also to note there is just the start of convention building back on both sides of the circulation via ir sat loop
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Very strong convection to the south west of Jamaica
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning again.

The surface low is located immediately North of the island of Roatan. I have centered it in this image. The 850 mb vorticity at 4600 feet is displaced well to the NE of the low due to SW shear. Put another way, the circulation is tilted on its axis in height from the SW to the NE. The thing to watch for now is whether the low can spin up and consolidate where it is as shear is relatively low there.





Thats sad too
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


STJ is supposed to slowly lift Nwards through the week as will the shear & moisture with it. Configuration of the STJ will depict where the area will go. NWS has it clipping Extreme SFL ATM.


Intresting... None of the local mets are talking about this..

Memorial Day Weekend is a big boost for the tourism down here.. Miami International Airport is expecting over 110,000 passengers a day... If a tropical depression or tropical storm clipped the area. The economy would be hurt.

Yesterday all the models had it over the Bahamas, now they have it between Florida and the Bahamas.

I don't think it will ever reach tropical storm status, as shear will kill it off faster than Alberto.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Morning or afternoon depending on where you are!

`I remember something like this happened last year, cmc AKA the Apocolypse model was picking up on a surface low in the carribean. The main problem is that the main surface low that is trying to form is displace from the anticycolne.



You can clearly see where the strongest vorticity is.



Where you see the "5-10" knot wind shear is the sub-equatorial ridge and as levi posted on facebook, "The axis of the sub-equatorial ridge is still to the south over central America, and as a result, wind shear remains too high for
development."

All in all not a very conducive enviroment for anything to form.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Wow! You can tell the updates went thru with the GFS as it is moving thru the 12Z run fast.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This Bud's for you...



The dos equis guy will not like an american domestic trying to invade his home turf!!! ............................

"I might be mexican but when i drink its from bud!"
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Good morning again.

The surface low is located immediately North of the island of Roatan. I have centered it in this image. The 850 mb vorticity at 4600 feet is displaced well to the NE of the low due to SW shear. Put another way, the circulation is tilted on its axis in height from the SW to the NE. The thing to watch for now is whether the low can spin up and consolidate where it is as shear is relatively low there.



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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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