Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We were almost struck by lightning three times and now I am enduring the worst storm of my life. Winds are at least 70 mph and hail is coming down like crazy!


sounds amazing
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Could it be the upgrades the GFS received today? Seems to have grown some horns all of a sudden. May need a few runs to digest?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5447
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well if it occurs I will be out chasing. I am so glad its summer :D.
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Quoting hydrus:
Heat wave, then a powerful low pressure area roaring out of Northern Canada straight into it."http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12z gfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240.gif">

do.
not.
want.

The heat wave can either make or break the severe weather threat, dependent upon how much moisture is available when it pushes through.
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Quoting hydrus:
Heat wave, then a powerful low pressure area roaring out of Northern Canada straight into it."http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12z gfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240.gif">
I wonder when the SPC will pick it up. That should tell us a lot on what to expect in terms of the seriousness of the possible outbreak.
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Quoting hydrus:
Yessir..Just looking at it is unsettling.


what caught my eye is that it went negatively tilted.
GFS already ahas 60+kts this far out.
The ECMWF has the beginnings of a trough, but not as major:

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Quoting jeffs713:

darn near textbook. Lets see if the GFS sticks with it.
Heat wave, then a powerful low pressure area roaring out of Northern Canada straight into it."http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12z gfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical240.gif">
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Good Afternoon...

Looks like 12Z ECMWF wants to keep that low pressure in the W/NW CARIB for at while longer and then bring it into the S GOM by next Wednesday/Thursday:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We were almost struck by lightning three times and now I am enduring the worst storm of my life. Winds are at least 70 mph and hail is coming down like crazy!



what city are you in in NC?
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This is from Monday's CPC ENSO update and folks we maybe in for an active hurricane season. Not good.

• ENSO-neutral conditions have returned.*
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across much of the equatorial Pacific, except for above average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
• ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2012.*
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We were almost struck by lightning three times and now I am enduring the worst storm of my life. Winds are at least 70 mph and hail is coming down like crazy!


You definitely have some boomers down there. They seem headed this way too.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We were almost struck by lightning three times and now I am enduring the worst storm of my life. Winds are at least 70 mph and hail is coming down like crazy!


Sounds Bad
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We were almost struck by lightning three times and now I am enduring the worst storm of my life. Winds are at least 70 mph and hail is coming down like crazy!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32230
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


50 Cent?
Ron Browz and Jim Jones.
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I am a new driver so it will be interesting to see if I can handle chasing. Depending on the exact timing of the outbreak will decide if I would go out or not. Anything between 1:00-4:00 local time would be the ideal time for me. And that is not my chase time that is just when I would go after storms if they where to fire. Anything later is a no go.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:


50 Cent?
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Neapolitan, thanks! You provided a link to his paper itself.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Dr. Masters what was your PhD dissertation about? What new facet of knowledge did you introduce in your dissertatio? Is it available on line?


Google. Its an awesome thing to use occasionally.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Dr. Masters what was your PhD dissertation about? What new facet of knowledge did you introduce in your dissertatio? Is it available on line?
Here you go:

Vertical transport of carbon monoxide by wintertime mid- latitude cyclones

The man knows his stuff... ;-)
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Quoting hydrus:
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well if it occurs I will be out chasing. I am so glad its summer :D.
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Dr. Masters what was your PhD dissertation about? What new facet of knowledge did you introduce in your dissertatio? Is it available on line?
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Quoting jeffs713:

darn near textbook. Lets see if the GFS sticks with it.
Yessir..Just looking at it is unsettling.
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Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but has severe weather written all over it.
Well if it occurs I will be out chasing. I am so glad its summer :D.
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271. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
3:00 AM JST May 23 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (998 hPa) located at 15.1N 141.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 17.4N 139.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.6N 139.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 21.8N 140.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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the low level circulation near rotan is still stronger that the other two that was out the one to MY NW looks dead
the one just SSW of Jamaica is now flat and rotan one seem to also be growing convection
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
right soory about the delay of what I was going to say just power cut


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138


Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5447
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Miami International has recorded 18.90" since January 1st. WOW and that wasn't even the rainy season!



That's really not that surprising, their average year gets about 65 to 70 inches of rain down there, they have a longer and rainier wet season, and different foliage than Central Florida, more tropical like.

The very southern portion of Florida is a different Climate than Central and North Florida, which are more subtropical, but far South Florida is much closer to pure tropical. It probably only isn't because of the big cold spells every once in a while that make it down thanks to the sandy soil down here that cools very efficiently.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




its not june 1st  yet  they dont start doing norml updates on the outlook in tell june 1st


Oh I know that Taz, just deserves some attention for potential development a few days down the road.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I can understand why its not an invest yet - its been struggling against a lot of issues, on an uphill slope covered in ice.


Yeah.... I don't think it should be declared an invest yet, but I think it warrants some attention for at least further down the road. Should probably be a 10%
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I rarely comment on cyclogenesis but isn't it possible that what's happening in the Caribbean is just lots and lots of rain, caused by a monsoonal flow into an area of BROAD low pressure. There's no center to this mess, that's why the NHC hasn't declared it anything. And they don't even have a yellow circle up for potential.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I just can't believe that this doesn't have a yellow circle.




its not june 1st  yet  they dont start doing norml updates on the outlook in tell june 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Here is today's AussiMet ENSO outlook.....Current neutral with transition to El Nino expected at some point later in the year...........Will be certainly interesting to see when El Nino conditions will actually begin affecting the Atlantic H-Season with higher sheer than normal come the September-October time frame.

Neutral conditions persist in the tropical Pacific
Issued on Tuesday 22 May | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific climate indicators remain in the neutral range (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña). This includes the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds, cloudiness, and sea surface temperatures. Ocean temperatures below the surface are clearly warmer than average in the central and western Pacific.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to warm further over the next six months. All seven models surveyed indicate conditions are likely to approach, or possibly exceed, El Niño thresholds during the second half of the year. This suggests an enhanced risk of El Niño conditions developing during 2012. No climate models favour a return to La Niña.

Model outlooks suggest the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain neutral during the coming months.

Next update expected by 5 June 2012 | print version


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Quoting hydrus:
Long way out, but has severe weather written all over it.

darn near textbook. Lets see if the GFS sticks with it.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I just can't believe that this doesn't have a yellow circle.


I can understand why its not an invest yet - its been struggling against a lot of issues, on an uphill slope covered in ice.
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Long way out, but has severe weather written all over it.
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Looking at 20.5N 84W personally. Seems the low down by Honduras may be now part of a larger cyclonic circulation centered there. Hence the east movement. Just my take
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5447
Quoting stormpetrol:


There is no question in my mind that this is strong tropical disturbance, will it become a TD/TS , I don't know, but here on Grand Cayman it caused just as much damage as if it was a TS.


I just can't believe that this doesn't have a yellow circle.

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well the 24th may be pretty rainy still, but according to the latest computer models, this mess should get scooped out by the 25th. There is a small chance not all of this gets carried out of the Caribbean though. Mostly like a wait-and-see thing unfortunately.


Thanks.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Sadly it looks like it will continue to rain Welcome to the rainy season.Btw if Beryl form before June could it be the second earliest name storm on record?


Thanks. I can take a couple of days of rain, but I sure we get a couple of nice days too.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Looking at the latest visible imagery I think the surface low just north of Honduras has opened up into a trough. It looks like the majority of the low-level inflow is now merging around 17.5N 84W.



That's the plan as of 12Z

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5447
Quoting SaratogaSteve:


What does all of this mean in terms of the weather forecast in Grand Cayman from 5/24-5/31, my vacation dates? I sure hope that it won't be a total washout.
Sadly it looks like it will continue to rain Welcome to the rainy season.Btw if Beryl form before June could it be the second earliest name storm on record?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4394
Quoting SaratogaSteve:


What does all of this mean in terms of the weather forecast in Grand Cayman from 5/24-5/31, my vacation dates? I sure hope that it won't be a total washout.
Well the 24th may be pretty rainy still, but according to the latest computer models, this mess should get scooped out by the 25th. There is a small chance not all of this gets carried out of the Caribbean though. Mostly like a wait-and-see thing unfortunately.
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Looking at the latest visible imagery I think the surface low just north of Honduras has opened up into a trough. It looks like the majority of the low-level inflow is now merging around 17.5N 84W.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It sure did, funny how that works, it now shows a storm off FL's. east coast.

That's because the potential is there. With rising pressures across the Eastern United States caused by the formation and intensification of a ridge of high pressure, an upper level disturbance could easily get "stuck" off the Southeast USA coastline and transition into a warm-core low pressure area very similar to how TS Alberto developed.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32230
249. TXCWC
Given the model disparity at this point, my guess would be a future invest with the possiblity of an organizing depression within the next couple of days. As long as GFS shows actual storm development it can not be completely ruled out, but at this point I am skeptical of this becoming Beryl.
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Link

They took the Low off the loop again, but you can clearly see the low moving a little south of due east in this loop.
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Hi! Back for another season. Hope all are well. Glad to see some essential crew members are still on board. I'm here for the ride....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I wonder where I hear something of the sort and saying that in 36hours time shear will die down huh tell me who said that


What does all of this mean in terms of the weather forecast in Grand Cayman from 5/24-5/31, my vacation dates? I sure hope that it won't be a total washout.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.