Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Zappy:

Typhoon Sanvu is intensifying. Developing an eye.


Sanvu is not officially a typhoon yet. It still has winds of 50mph per the JTWC 2100Z advisory.
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
343. Zappy

Tropical Storm Sanvu is intensifying. Developing an eye like feature.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Would this be the one?



No, that would be the GFS system that is being portrayed in a totally different manner (develops from the Caribbean low, heads North then east into Florida), the ECMWF develops it on June 1st vs May 27th, and is much more typical of a June system.

The GFS also has some support by the CMC with the development of a low pressure system but the CMC shows a non-tropical low north of Florida that constricts and kills the system (likely being overdone)
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Quoting MaryMichell46:


The big question is, will we finally get our yellow circle?



where still on the off season and norml updates on the outlook wont start in tell june 1st so if we see any thing yellow it will likey be a few days
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

that is not a low that is a blob of convection it is expanding


Quoting GTcooliebai:
Look at that moisture feed from where Bud is through the Caribbean and all the way up to the east coast.


Thanks....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Should get a yellow circle soon. Just received this alert on my phone from the NWS.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-231200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
MOVES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LEADING
TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWEST AREAS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS WITH
EVEN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. IF THESE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED IN LATER MODEL RUNS...A FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

$$

BAXTER



where still on the off season and norml updates on the outlook wont start in tell june 1st so if we see any thing yellow it will likey be a few days
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting 12z run of the GFS, develops the low pressure center in the Caribbean into a weak tropical cyclone out in the Bahamas and sends it into Florida by the 27th.

Would this be the one?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Quoting Levi32:


When I say SE of the trough axis, I mean far enough away that the trough isn't shearing it. Here, southeast of the axis would mean the Caribbean, though trouble directly underneath the trough axis or just east of it seems more probable due to the mess that will be in the Bahamas.

Ah, okay. Thanks Levi.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
12z ECMWF is showing a weak system into Florida also, but an entirety different system by 240 hours than being portrayed on the GFS.
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Should get a yellow circle soon. Just received this alert on my phone from the NWS.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-231200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
MOVES NORTHEAST AND THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SET UP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LEADING
TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE NORTHWEST AREAS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS WITH
EVEN ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. IF THESE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE INDICATED IN LATER MODEL RUNS...A FLOOD
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

$$

BAXTER
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

North Carolina. :P
Thanx..:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If anything isn't centered directly underneath the upper level low off the southeastern United States though, won't it be sheared, especially in the Gulf of Mexico?


When I say SE of the trough axis, I mean far enough away that the trough isn't shearing it. Here, southeast of the axis would mean the Caribbean, though trouble directly underneath the trough axis or just east of it seems more probable due to the mess that will be in the Bahamas.
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Interesting 12z run of the GFS, develops the low pressure center in the Caribbean into a weak tropical cyclone out in the Bahamas and sends it into Florida by the 27th.
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Quoting hydrus:
What state.?

North Carolina. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting Levi32:
The mischievous tropical pattern is not over with Alberto. This week, another blocking ridge is going to build over the eastern U.S., and south of it will be sitting a TUTT-like upper trough over Florida and the Bahamas, eventually backing westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Such features have to be watched directly underneath of them or to the southeast of the trough axis for surface low pressure development. The Caribbean mess may spice things up by getting blocked by the east coast ridge and interacting with the upper trough near Florida by this weekend, possibly making it into the Gulf of Mexico if it does get blocked. In general, the pattern still supports troublesome tropical lows forming and interacting with these upper features that are getting blocked by ridges to the north, and we may have to watch the GOM and SE U.S./Bahamas region later this week.


If anything isn't centered directly underneath the upper level low off the southeastern United States though, won't it be sheared, especially in the Gulf of Mexico?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Southern Pender County near Rocky Point (just south of Burgaw).
What state.?
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Big spot of WV to visit Jamaica....
should get pulled in to the Rotan low soon
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
The mischievous tropical pattern is not over with Alberto. This week, another blocking ridge is going to build over the eastern U.S., and south of it will be sitting a TUTT-like upper trough over Florida and the Bahamas, eventually backing westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Such features have to be watched directly underneath of them or to the southeast of the trough axis for surface low pressure development. The Caribbean mess may spice things up by getting blocked by the east coast ridge and interacting with the upper trough near Florida by this weekend, possibly making it into the Gulf of Mexico if it does get blocked. In general, the pattern still supports troublesome tropical lows forming and interacting with these upper features that are getting blocked by ridges to the north, and we may have to watch the GOM and SE U.S./Bahamas region later this week. If nothing else, more tropical rain and blustery conditions are in store for the Bahamas and possibly Florida later.

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Quoting sunlinepr:

that is not a low that is a blob of convection it is expanding
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Quoting sunlinepr:
Look at that moisture feed from where Bud is through the Caribbean and all the way up to the east coast.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
The remains of my tomato plants..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Big spot of WV to visit Jamaica....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting TXCWC:


Was just looking at that myself. It brings a storm to the Florida Panhandle by day 10. It is intersting to note the 12z GFS is showing an area of disturbed weather as well during the exact same time frame and area (days 9-10), but seems to bring it across South Florida. For such a "quiet" forecasted season ahead, there is certainly a lot to keep an eye on early on!





That's for sure... might end up being a bit busy than usual early on but the environment might not be as conductive for development if El Niño develops further later in the period, but anything goes with WX (got to love it).
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like that low is going to pass over Jamaica....


there is no low anywhere near Jamaica however there is one just E of Rotan
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.


Sorry to hear about your damage. That must've been one heck of a storm. It's a little disheartening some are making light of the situation.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If the shear keeps up and mantains the center displaced from the main convection,then it may never reach hurricane status as it has been forecast. When this all started as a invest,the expectations were that this would be one of the big ones of the EPAC 2012 season with a major impact somewhere in the Mexican Riviera coast. But mother nature has always the upper hand and throws curveballs to what is expected to occur. Let's see what occurs in the next couple of days and see if Bud can get stronger,or it turns out to be another Aletta.


I agree... I maintain my initial forecast of a 65mph peak as it appears the shear is stronger than forecast

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Severe Thunderstorm.

Wow... The Carolinas are getting slammed today... Nasty line of storms closing in on the Outer Banks now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
I noticed that the blob of convection that is W of Jamaica and the blob NW of Grand Cayman is coming together and both are draged in by the rotan low also rotans low is building
by the looks of it we may get a yellow circle before tomrrow morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Looks like that low is going to pass over Jamaica....

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
**Tropical Update**



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Quoting hydrus:
Where are you located.?

Southern Pender County near Rocky Point (just south of Burgaw).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon everyone... Anything happen today?

This looks good:



Bud is still struggling... So far my way lower than everyone else intensity forecast on him is holding up:



And I see Alberto died :(


Good afternoon. If the shear keeps up and mantains the center displaced from the main convection,then it may never reach hurricane status as it has been forecast. When this all started as a invest,the expectations were that this would be one of the big ones of the EPAC 2012 season with a major impact somewhere in the Mexican Riviera coast. But mother nature has always the upper hand and throws curveballs to what is expected to occur. Let's see what occurs in the next couple of days and see if Bud can get stronger,or it turns out to be another Aletta.

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from now on when storm become extratropical we should not call it dead but retired from tropical it make sense if you think about it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What the heck happenned?

Severe Thunderstorm.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.
Where are you located.?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon everyone... Anything happen today?

This looks good:



Bud is still struggling... So far my way lower than everyone else intensity forecast on him is holding up:



And I see Alberto died :(

Good afternoon MA
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The wind shear is very impressive this far out. Will be interesting to watch the models develop this possible outbreak.
Its 10 days out, but May has been fairly quiet, and early June may make up for it.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.

What the heck happenned?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.




your haveing fun
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115247
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.


take some pics!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.


Sounds like fun! Send one of those storms down here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
302. TXCWC
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Afternoon...

Looks like 12Z ECMWF wants to keep that low pressure in the W/NW CARIB for at while longer and then bring it into the S GOM by next Wednesday/Thursday:



Was just looking at that myself. It brings a storm to the Florida Panhandle by day 10. It is intersting to note the 12z GFS is showing an area of disturbed weather as well during the exact same time frame and area (days 9-10), but seems to bring it across South Florida. For such a "quiet" forecasted season ahead, there is certainly a lot to keep an eye on early on!



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Good afternoon everyone... Anything happen today?

This looks good:



Bud is still struggling... So far my way lower than everyone else intensity forecast on him is holding up:



And I see Alberto died :(
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7829
Well, this is just great.

Our yard is impassable.

All of our trees are snapped.

Lightning messed up our A/C unit and it's extremely hot outside.

Anything the wind didn't get, the hail got.

The car has dents in it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Could it be the upgrades the GFS received today? Seems to have grown some horns all of a sudden. May need a few runs to digest?


I agree.
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Quoting hydrus:
The wind shear is very impressive this far out. Will be interesting to watch the models develop this possible outbreak.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



That's really not that surprising, their average year gets about 65 to 70 inches of rain down there, they have a longer and rainier wet season, and different foliage than Central Florida, more tropical like.

The very southern portion of Florida is a different Climate than Central and North Florida, which are more subtropical, but far South Florida is much closer to pure tropical. It probably only isn't because of the big cold spells every once in a while that make it down thanks to the sandy soil down here that cools very efficiently.


It's even like that on the eastside of FL as some places like Melbourne have double the rain that the west coast has seen so far this year. Even though I had 5" over a 8 day span the ground is still very dry as November thru March was exceptionally dry over all of FL.

THE MELBOURNE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2012
SINCE JAN 1 11.59

Most of this rain has come over the last several weeks.

OIA has seen nearly 9" for the year but again most of that has been over the last several weeks.
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Quoting jeffs713:

do.
not.
want.

The heat wave can either make or break the severe weather threat, dependent upon how much moisture is available when it pushes through.
Check this run out..Click 6 hour precip..Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We were almost struck by lightning three times and now I am enduring the worst storm of my life. Winds are at least 70 mph and hail is coming down like crazy!


sounds amazing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.