Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Classic hurricane (or in its case typhoon) setting up here:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7566
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And Bret and Cindy last year...


Well, I was referring to the fact that Andrea and Barry both developed before June 1st.

Andrea on the 9th, Barry late UTC as a TD on May 31st.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's actually happened recently (Andrea and Barry) in 2007.


And Bret and Cindy last year...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic is a mess.




but at lest its not all in dry air
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114653
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
542 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

VAC009-222200-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-120522T2200Z/
AMHERST VA-
542 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN AMHERST COUNTY...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOWESVILLE AND CLIFFORD...OR
RIGHT ALONG THE AMHERST...NELSON COUNTY LINE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOWESVILLE...
CLIFFORD...
NEW GLASGLOW...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 7910 3768 7911 3773 7912 3780 7912
3777 7906 3771 7905 3770 7899 3769 7898
3757 7891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 252DEG 4KT 3771 7918

$$

RAB
--_@_WWA_SVRWX_STA_COUNTY.WWAPROD--!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Possible trough split could trigger round 2 of a named storm(Beryl). Wouldn't that be something to get a second storm before, or right as the season began.


That's actually happened recently (Andrea and Barry) in 2007.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is what I see going on here:



As predicted by the models, the low near Cuba is beginning to take shape. That will limit significantly the time it has over water, as the models are showing it going into Cuba in a few days. I'm very skeptical about development of this system, especially in the Caribbean and this week - but there's a chance once the system moves over the Bahamas next weekend.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
439 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

TXC243-371-389-230030-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FA.Y.0054.120522T2139Z-120523T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PECOS-REEVES-JEFF DAVIS-
439 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OVER EASTERN
JEFF DAVIS COUNTY. THESE STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED NEAR ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES OVER AND NEAR STATE HIGHWAY 17...10 TO 20 MILES
NORTHEAST OF FORT DAVIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN
REPORTED. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3084 10391 3095 10380 3091 10363 3087 10351
3067 10346 3056 10361 3052 10366 3058 10385

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is what I see going on here:


Did not even notice that cyclonic turning south of Cuba when I first watched the visible loop. Definitely stronger than the low near Roatan Island. With an east-southeast motion, it looks like further strengthening could occur and convection could begin to wrap around the disturbance.

Yeah, I'm aboard the train of people saying "yellow circle".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31336
Quoting Levi32:
The mischievous tropical pattern is not over with Alberto. This week, another blocking ridge is going to build over the eastern U.S. and eastern Gulf, and south and east of it will be sitting a TUTT-like upper trough over the Bahamas, eventually backing westward into the Gulf of Mexico. Such features have to be watched directly underneath of them or to the southeast of the trough axis for surface low pressure development. The Caribbean mess may spice things up by getting blocked by the eastern U.S. ridge and interacting with the upper trough well-off the east coast of Florida by this weekend, possibly making it into the Gulf of Mexico if it does get blocked. In general, the pattern still supports troublesome tropical lows forming and interacting with these upper features that are getting blocked by ridges to the north and west, and we may have to watch the GOM and SE U.S./Bahamas region later this week. If nothing else, more tropical rain and blustery conditions are in store for the Bahamas and possibly southern Florida later.



If this thing gets blocked, it'll most likely become stationary and then take a similar path to Alberto. That same ridge axis is expected to build from the eastern Gulf by next week.

Plus an UUL is also forecasted to cut off just south/east of Cape Hatteras by late this week/next weekend. I think that will be the path of least resistance. The TUTT low that has been sitting on top of Florida/Bahama's since Friday did not help in retrograding Alberto westward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
This is what I see going on here:


Possible trough split could trigger round 2 of a named storm(Beryl). Wouldn't that be something to get a second storm before, or right as the season began.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Pretty active weather afternoon for the Caribbean and parts of Florida. I am sitting in my office in Downtown Tallahassee with a few severe storms/warnings popping up over the past hour or so and looking at the storms out the windows. Gonna wait till they die down before the drive several miles to the North of town. However, nothing compared to the rain and storms in Caiman and a few other places as noted on here.

Seems like a early start to the rainy season for parts of Florida but many of the folks in Southern GA (and their crops and agriculture) really need the rain.
can you please send some down to the Tampa area..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
This is what I see going on here:

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
Very broad cyclonic turning beginning to take shape in the W Caribbean per satellite, generally looks to be moving in a slow ESE direction.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23499
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We can only hope that we do not see a rapid release of the methane. Should this happen, we may as well hit the showers. The game will already be lost.


speaking of a rapid release of methane...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RevElvis:
Arctic melt releasing ancient methane

BBC News / Science

I don't brake for trolls!


We can only hope that we do not see a rapid release of the methane. Should this happen, we may as well hit the showers. The game will already be lost.
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The Atlantic is a mess.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31336
Quoting kmanislander:


That is what I see as well. The visible loop from RAMSDIS appears to show a slow drift in that direction towards an area of low shear that has developed immediately South of us and down to the east of Nicaragua. If the low makes it there and the shear stays low we might see this thing spin up.


It's interesting to watch nonetheless. It may have a chance for some mischief later this week into the weekend as well as it gets drawn up into the Bahamas region and gets blocked.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31336
Pretty active weather afternoon for the Caribbean and parts of Florida. I am sitting in my office in Downtown Tallahassee with a few severe storms/warnings popping up over the past hour or so and looking at the storms out the windows. Gonna wait till they die down before the drive several miles to the North of town. However, nothing compared to the rain and storms in Caiman and a few other places as noted on here.

Seems like a early start to the rainy season for parts of Florida but many of the folks in Southern GA (and their crops and agriculture) really need the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Arctic melt releasing ancient methane

BBC News / Science

I don't brake for trolls!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's a bad drawing, I know. You get the point though.



That is what I see as well. The visible loop from RAMSDIS appears to show a slow drift in that direction towards an area of low shear that has developed immediately South of us and down to the east of Nicaragua. If the low makes it there and the shear stays low we might see this thing spin up.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
373. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
anywhere from minot to grand forks may soon have a tornado watch.




Tornado Watch 290
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The remains of my tomato plants..


I know it sounds difficult to believe, but they will bounce back from this. If you *don't touch them and leave them exactly as they are*, what repairable branches they can they will, and they will send out vertical shoots from the node suckers to take over what
main stalks have failed. That's what those suckers are for, backup.

If you start trying to re-arrange them right now, you might break extra branches that would have otherwise survived.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's a bad drawing, I know. You get the point though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31336
Quoting MrstormX:
Another Alberto to come? What is going on off of Florida in the bws charts?





Looks to me like a low pressure could creep up from the Western Caribbean and meander its way to the same warm waters Alberto formed in.


Note the blocking ridge above in image 3. Westward ho from that point.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
Quoting kmanislander:


The damage is significant. I know several people whose homes and cars were flooded out with up to 3 feet of rain water. More coming down now and lots more coming up from the SW. One of my staff memebrs and her family had to vacate their home and stay in a hotel.


Nice broad low north of Roatan Island. This should be classified as 94L very soon.

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Grand Cayman is still getting moderate to heavy showers.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 7765
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Southern Pender County near Rocky Point (just south of Burgaw).


That was a pretty nasty thunderstorm. Looks like it rained itself out now. sorry to hear about all the damage. Hope all is ok.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Do you have any idea what damage the island has suffered already with all the rain?


The damage is significant. I know several people whose homes and cars were flooded out with up to 3 feet of rain water. More coming down now and lots more coming up from the SW. One of my staff members and her family had to vacate their home and stay in a hotel.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Wow!! Its terrible here again, the worse I seen with this system!


when is it expected to clear up in Grand Cayman?
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Quoting Zappy:

I quickly changed it, if you hadn't noticed.


ummmm yeahhhhhhh, there isnt room for 2 of us...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another Alberto to come? What is going on off of Florida in the bws charts?





Looks to me like a low pressure could creep up from the Western Caribbean and meander its way to the same warm waters Alberto formed in.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Its kind of ironic that someone with the last name Moses is issuing a flood advisory


If it was Noah I'd be getting out of town quickly...
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 66 Comments: 179
Quoting LargoFl:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

FLC061-111-222115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0003.120522T1917Z-120522T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ST. LUCIE-INDIAN RIVER-
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...
GIFFORD...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT PIERCE INLET...INDRIO...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 314 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER AND NORTHEASTERN SAINT
LUCIE COUNTY. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THIS
AREA...AND ANOTHER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS
WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. IT WILL WILL ALSO
CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN
HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE
TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

&&

LAT...LON 2744 8050 2758 8053 2771 8037 2763 8034
2762 8033 2759 8032 2759 8031 2756 8032
2749 8029 2747 8028 2745 8028

$$


MOSES


Its kind of ironic that someone with the last name Moses is issuing a flood advisory
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7337
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-12 9-133-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0289.120522T2045Z-120523T0100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JACKSON
JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY
MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA
WASHINGTON
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
anywhere from minot to grand forks may soon have a tornado watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-12 9-133-230100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0289.120522T2045Z-120523T0100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF JACKSON
JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY
MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA
WASHINGTON
$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
Quoting stormpetrol:
Wow!! Its terrible here again, the worse I seen with this system!
Do you have any idea what damage the island has suffered already with all the rain?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
models backing off Bud going into Mexico now??
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
352. Zappy


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

FLC061-111-222115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0003.120522T1917Z-120522T2115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ST. LUCIE-INDIAN RIVER-
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...
GIFFORD...
NORTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...FORT PIERCE INLET...INDRIO...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 314 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER AND NORTHEASTERN SAINT
LUCIE COUNTY. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THIS
AREA...AND ANOTHER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS
WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. IT WILL WILL ALSO
CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN
HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE
TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

&&

LAT...LON 2744 8050 2758 8053 2771 8037 2763 8034
2762 8033 2759 8032 2759 8031 2756 8032
2749 8029 2747 8028 2745 8028

$$


MOSES
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36664
**Tropical Update**

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow!! Its terrible here again, the worse I seen with this system!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7631
Bud may never reach hurricane status after all as NHC has been decreasing the intensity with every advisory.


TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012

BUD CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BENEATH A RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION. A
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT AN APPARENT DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED
FROM EARLIER TODAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.

BUD HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND SPED UP A BIT WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 305/12 KT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
REASONING...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE ENVELOPE
OF SOLUTIONS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THE NHC FORECAST
THROUGH DAY 3 IS LIKEWISE NUDGED TO THE WEST...LYING ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION OF BUD WILL BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST
POSITIONS ARE NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND KEEP
THE CENTER OF BUD OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST.

THE ANALYZED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT BELLIGERENT AT THE
MOMENT...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A QUANDARY WHY BUD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE
TO STRENGTHEN. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX FURTHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION IS DECREASING. ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT MAY BE
A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 250 MB THAT WILL BE
IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A FEW DAYS...AS
SHOWN BY FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VORTEX WEAKENING AS IT HEADS
TOWARD MEXICO...AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS BUD
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BUD
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL FORECAST TIMES.

EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE
STAYING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH
THE COAST. WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN
ERRORS STILL SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.0N 105.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.6N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.5N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.4N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.4N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13929
I keep forgetting that soon around here means in the next 5 min or so, lol. Should have said late tonight or tomorrow morning.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5020
346. Zappy
Quoting cyclonekid:


Sanvu is not officially a typhoon yet. It still has winds of 50mph per the JTWC 2100Z advisory.

I quickly changed it, if you hadn't noticed.
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Quoting Zappy:

Typhoon Sanvu is intensifying. Developing an eye.


Sanvu is not officially a typhoon yet. It still has winds of 50mph per the JTWC 2100Z advisory.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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