Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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hey guys that low near Rotan is spining good it just need to develop more convection it has a really good ball of it on its E side and its got alot to its N and E shear is falling in the area now running at 10-15kts so keep a very close eyeon it and truly first I see this system keeping control of the convection more so close to the center as we hit Peak D-Min
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11793
12.57 at Spotts on Grand Cayman since sunday midnight most of that fell yesterday. Pretty windy here right now moderate-heavy rain just started again .6 inch/hr




Quoting kmanislander:


Over 9 inches so far at my home since midnight Sunday and counting !. Other readings locally have seen more.
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 356
Off to work on dinner now. Back later
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I will be interested to see your total precip for the week.


Over 9 inches so far at my home since midnight Sunday and counting !. Other readings locally have seen more.
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The visible loop suggests more than one gyre within a broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean. One area is near Honduras and another is just to our NW. In fact pressure near Roatan seems to be higher than in our area if the obs there are believable.

I am wondering if the area of dominant surface low pressure is becoming more established near 20 North to our NW given the readings at buoy 42057 and here, all being around 1008.3 approximately.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Every year :-)


I will be interested to see your total precip for the week.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Realistically? I could see us having Beryl late this month, so A.

If not, I suspect the next prime time for development is in late-June in a formation similar to Arlene and Alex.
Yeah, I think my safe answer would be D, but if I were to be more specific, I would definetly say June.
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Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August
B
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18z came in less pronounced with the trough, but doesnt have the more accurate data so we will see.
I dont see this happening:


It also has a 1008 mb low traversing the east coast in the extended.
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what kind of setup do we have this year some in tells me its not good news lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128
Good evening all...we are having light to moderate showers, but Grand Cayman is getting the bulk of the rain
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Can't imagine Kman. You guys have another couple days of this, at least.



Every year :-)
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Quoting kmanislander:


The damage is significant. I know several people whose homes and cars were flooded out with up to 3 feet of rain water. More coming down now and lots more coming up from the SW. One of my staff members and her family had to vacate their home and stay in a hotel.
Thanks for the report. Hope all turns out well for those effected.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128
This month is on track to be one of the warmest, if not THE warmest, Mays on record for the nation. This March through May period will shatter the record for warmest spring on record nationally.

Yet another globally-warmed airmass poised to move east across the United States. Temperatures some 15 to as much as 25 degrees above normal will envelop a large amount of territory. The past several runs of the GFS show H85 temps reaching into the 21 to 23 C range across the Ohio Valley region. This would easily support highs near 90F. In addition, much of the country is unusually dry for this time, as depicted by current streamflow, soil moisture, and drought indicator maps. This could allow temperatures to soar even more than might otherwise be expected.

Weather Underground's Best Forecast algorithm suggests many locations may experience temperatures as high as the upper 90s to around 100F. Other forecasting venues suggest temps peak somewhat lower than that, generally between 90 and 95F. In any event, it looks like many record highs should be tied or broken this weekend. Should Best Forecast verify, this would truly be unprecedented heat, on par with the March heat episode.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128


This bids fair to be the rainiest May we've had in 10 or more years.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Bud has orginizational issues, he'd better tidy his desk before the boss arrives, but I believe he will.

That storm in the Carribean had a bit of a meltdown last night, but it seems as though it's matured quite a bit today, and I believe I can see some spin to it now. I think the NHC should at least declare this an invest, as shear seems to be slowly, but surely abating.

I'm just a lurker who's fascinated by tropical weather - but I've commented relatively often recently... his season's starting off with a bang.
it sits in 83 degree water, sure warm enough to start building up some in the next day or so
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

Just got home. The pressure here now is 1008.3 mbs and steady, much lower than yesterday when we had all of the very heavy rain.
Winds are essentially out of the South and gusting over 20 MPH inland. I would imagine that right on the South coast in particular it is much worse.

Rain coming down again.


Can't imagine Kman. You guys have another couple days of this, at least.

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Quoting kmanislander:


This system is not organized though. The surface low is down near Roatan island but the strongest vorticity at the 850 and 925 mb levels in the atmosphere is stretched out from the North Coast of Honduras to the South coast of Cuba. Until they all align or one area becomes dominant not much is going to happen.


yeah right now its just a huge area of lower pressures... not really a low pressure
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18z GFS is now also inline with the 12z ECMWF that in 240 hours or so a system could also develop in the Caribbean by June 1st, as well as the system we're currently watching developing out in the Bahamas by May 27th. We need consistency though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23899
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


hm.... that means if we do get a low pressure to develop it will likely start out below 1008



This system is not organized though. The surface low is down near Roatan island but the strongest vorticity at the 850 and 925 mb levels in the atmosphere is stretched out from the North Coast of Honduras to the South coast of Cuba. Until they all align or one area becomes dominant not much is going to happen.
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Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August


Realistically? I could see us having Beryl late this month, so A.

If not, I suspect the next prime time for development is in late-June in a formation similar to Arlene and Alex.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23899
Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August

B.
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Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August

A...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31907
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

Just got home. The pressure here now is 1008.3 mbs and steady, much lower than yesterday when we had all of the very heavy rain. Winds are essentially out of the South and gusting over 20 MPH inland. I would imagine that right on the South coast in particular it is much worse.

Rain coming down again.


hm.... that means if we do get a low pressure to develop it will likely start out below 1008

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Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August


G. October
.... I am joking
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Good evening folks

Just got home. The pressure here now is 1008.3 mbs and steady, much lower than yesterday when we had all of the very heavy rain. Winds are essentially out of the South and gusting over 20 MPH inland. I would imagine that right on the South coast in particular it is much worse.

Rain coming down again.
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45 mph at 8 pm PDT? I think so.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31907
Amazing to think of what was going on one year ago this very hour. I can't even begin to imagine going through what they, and so many others have gone through.

Link
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WxGeekVA I was just going to point out I see another spin at 83.5W 20N your image in post 382 is pretty close could explain the pressure drop at the bouy in the NW carib, Though I'm not sure which is the stronger, seems to me that the spin east of roatan is better defined. check out this link


Link
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 356
Bud looks much better this evening with a new CDO. Here is the EPAC latest discussion.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 105.0W AT 22/2100 UTC
...OR ABOUT 455 NM SSW OF ZIHUANTANEJO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 12
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT EARLIER WAS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW BENEATH AN INCREASING CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT REPRESENT AND APPARENT SMALL CDO
TYPE FEATURE. OVERALL...BUD IS SHOWING ORGANIZATION WITH
IN ITS CLOUD/CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE
READILY EVIDENT IN THE W SEMICIRCLE WITH ONE NOTABLE OUTER
BAND IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION CONSISTS OF NUMEROUS TO
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM IN THE SW
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W...AND MARKS THE OUTER
BAND IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BAND THERE FROM 11N96W TO 13N100W TO 14N103W.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14219
Perhaps some rain at the house. We shall see.

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Straight from the horses mouth.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 221924
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
324 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE CWA. SO HAVE INCREASED THE POPS OVER THE CWA TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO 60 PERCENT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE THE CWA ON
THURSDAY..AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OVER OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE 30 PERCENT NORTHWEST AREAS TO 60 PERCENT SOUTHEAST
AREAS FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS.

MORE ON THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND RAINFALL MOUNTS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK STATEMENT.


.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
MOVING BACK WEST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LOW END SCATTERED
POPS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING THE POPS AGAIN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


A
Is that what's in the Carribean now?
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Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August


A
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did not even notice that cyclonic turning south of Cuba when I first watched the visible loop. Definitely stronger than the low near Roatan Island. With an east-southeast motion, it looks like further strengthening could occur and convection could begin to wrap around the disturbance.

Yeah, I'm aboard the train of people saying "yellow circle".


Same here
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So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Pressure continues to fall with buoy 42056:



Link


We could see 94L sometime tomorrow, depends on what the NHC thinks. I think it deserves it, but we'll see.
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Pressure continues to fall with buoy 42056:



Link
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383. LargoFl 5:50 PM EDT on May 22, 2012

Lol.........I will see what I can do. Got my window to drive home.....Have a Good Day Folks and enjoy the weather watching....WW
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Bud has orginizational issues, he'd better tidy his desk before the boss arrives, but I believe he will.

That storm in the Carribean had a bit of a meltdown last night, but it seems as though it's matured quite a bit today, and I believe I can see some spin to it now. I think the NHC should at least declare this an invest, as shear seems to be slowly, but surely abating.

I'm just a lurker who's fascinated by tropical weather - but I've commented relatively often recently... his season's starting off with a bang.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's actually happened recently (Andrea and Barry) in 2007.

Would still be an interesting thing to see.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
As of the 5PM advisory today TS Bud is now only forecast to make minimal Cat 1 strength at peak after an initial forecast peak of 105mph a couple days ago. It seems as though it's rapid intensification or bust for Bud, and it looks like he may be taking the second route.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7744
(the most BORING trolls ever)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, I was referring to the fact that Andrea and Barry both developed before June 1st.

Andrea on the 9th, Barry late UTC as a TD on May 31st.


Ah, yeah. I was just remembering the trough split that they came from last year.
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Quoting jeffs713:


Google. Its an awesome thing to use occasionally.
Or even frequently.

Quoting Levi32:


When I say SE of the trough axis, I mean far enough away that the trough isn't shearing it. Here, southeast of the axis would mean the Caribbean, though trouble directly underneath the trough axis or just east of it seems more probable due to the mess that will be in the Bahamas.
I've been eyeing that area of disturbed wx for the last week, and seeing that it has the potential to create some problems for us in the Bahamas closer to the end of the month. If nothing else, I guess we can expect rainy Whit Monday and Labor Day holiday weekends.

I just hope it's not TS Beryl we're dealing with...
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Classic hurricane (or in its case typhoon) setting up here:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7744

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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