Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wilma strengthens, heads out to sea
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:01 PM GMT on October 24, 2005 +0
Wilma continues to confound forecasters, and has intensified once more into a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, despite wind shear levels that would normally barely support a hurricane. In fact, Wilma is close to Category 4 status--the 5 pm hurricane hunter flight found winds at 10,000 feet of 157 mph, which normally translates to a surface wind of 140 mph--Category 4 winds. Wilma is over the Gulf Stream, which has warm water temperatures of 28 C capable of supporting a major hurricane. Wilma is racing northeast at 40 mph away from Florida, but is still bringing tropical storm force wind gusts to both the east and west coasts of Florida. A wind gust of 39 mph was measured at Naples at 4 pm EDT today.

Wind reports
Here are the maximum sustained winds and gusts (in mph) measured during Wilma:

Miami: 67 gust 91 8:30am
West Palm Beach: 82 gust 100 9:10 am
Fort Lauderdale: 69 gust 96 10:53 am
Pompano Beach: 83 gust 120 mph 8:48 am
Alligator Alley, west of US 27: 85 gust 104 8:19 am
Grand Bahama: 95 gust 111 12:00 pm
Naples: 80 gust 97 8:30 am
Key Largo: 101 gust 123 8:00 am

And some peak wind gusts:
Naples EMO: 121 mph
Ochopee, Collier County: 105 mph
Everglades City: 97 mph
Opa Locka: 105 mph
Everglades National Park: 112 mph
Doral: 111 mph
National Hurricane Center: 104 mph
Boynton Beach: 103 mph

North Carolina
Wilma will race northeastward off the coast, but spare North Carolina her fury. Only 20 - 30 mph winds are expected on the Outer Banks tonight, and the moderate rain now falling across eatern North Carolina will end by 4 am Tuesday.

New England
On Tuesday, Wilma will dramatically affect New England's weather. A separate powerful Nor'easter storm will develop next to the coast of New England on Tuesday, and moisture feeding back from Wilma into the Nor'easter will drench much of Rhode Island, southeast Massachusetts, and surrounding areas with 2 - 4 inches of rain. Winds from the combined Nor'easter/Wilma storm will reach sustained levels of 40 - 50 mph over the waters near Cape Cod, and bring wind gusts of 50 mph to New York City, Providence, and Boston. A storm surge of 1 - 3 feet with 20 foot waves is expected to cause moderate flooding along the coast of southeast Massachusetts. As Wilma continues northeast on Wednesday, New Brunswick and Newfoundland will experience tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding.

Wilma's impact
Downtown Clewiston, next to Lake Okeechobee, suffered extensive damage. Up to 35% of the land area of Key West suffered inundation from Wilma's storm surge. The damage to the Keys and the rest of Florida is still unclear, but preliminary estimates of the total insured plus uninsured damage are $4 - $18 billion. It is also too early to gauge Wilma's impact on Mexico. Between 30-40% of the population in Cancun has suffered some damage to their housing. Reports are not in yet from the hardest hit areas, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen, which is a bad sign. Wilma caused heavy damage in Havana, where huge waves pushed flood waters up to four blocks inland, and flooded the city up to three feet deep. Damage to Haiti, Jamaica, Honduras, and Belize was also substantial. Including the damage done to Mexico and the rest of the Caribbean, Wilma will probably be the second most costly hurricane of all time, next to Katrina.

Alpha
Alpha is no more, destroyed by big sister Wilma's strong winds. In Haiti, eight are dead from flooding and mudslides triggered by Alpha's 4 - 8 inches of rain. At least 400 homes were destroyed, and twenty-three people have been reported missing, including 19 who were swept away by floodwaters in the town of Leogane, west of the capital.
Three people are missing from floods in the neighboring Dominican Republic.

Nor'easter season
New England residents, take note: it's now Nor'easter season! A second Nor'easter is expected to significantly impact the area on Sunday, bringing high winds, heavy rain, and the threat of coastal flooding from North Carolina to Maine. I'll be back Tuesday morning to discuss the current Nor'easter and Wilma, plus the outlook for Sunday's Nor'easter. Hurricane season is close to ending; it's time to start thinking about winter storms.
wilma in vero beach (flvol77)
wilma in vero beach
Father and Son (HapsInFla)
some neighbors, down the street...riding bikes in the street!
Father and Son
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Reader Comments
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51. flvol77 3:53 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
Just found out 97% of the county has no power and I do. Wilma was nasty. The back side was worse for us because the storm had moved back into the ocean and was getting stronger. I would say top winds in vero around 100 mph. My friends station went down with a top with around 68 mph and that was early in the storm.

Now the SEC debate....
UGA is the best team in the east and Bama is the best team in the west.
UT has some of the best talent and the worst coaches IMO in the SEC...I have been saying it since 99 but people are just now taking notice.
Member Since: August 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
52. snowboy 4:15 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
hey novascotiagal, a big hellooo from southern Ontario. I agree your official forecast does not sound bad, but it's based on the assumption that Wilma stays well offshore. As little as half a day ago, the models had her making landfall in Nova Scotia so these things change quickly. Keep an eye on the forecast tomorrow - hope Wilma does not cause trouble for you.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
53. novascotiagal 4:25 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
thank you for the welcome snowboy - I do agree - close your eyes here and the forecast changes - not to mention the last forecast update they had on this system was at 3:20 this afternoon. I noticed some of the computer models putting the storm directly over lunenburg county/halifax. should be an interesting couple of days ahead.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
54. FloridaFox7 4:36 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
NSG, I hope you fare well.

No matter how cool it will be to see PSII, I still worry for people in the way :( hope you make it out fine, and everyone else in the path of this freak storm.
55. snowboy 4:44 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
yeah, novascotiagal, i saw that the NS warnings were posted 3:20 pm too. Probably won't be updated till 5 am. This and Lefty's Blog (also on WU) should be good for checking in what Wilma is up to. Are you near the coast? If so, I'd batten down the hatches - better safe than sorry.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
56. BahaHurican 5:05 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
Wilma has consistently been forecast to turn extratropical and head across the Atlantic by at least two of the forecast models (forget which two now). But way back while she was still a Cat. 5, the NHC was forecasting that she would still be a hurricane while off the Jersey coast. They stepped back from that later, when she stalled over the Yucatan.

Given the high level of unpredictability in this storm's reactions, I wouldn't be surprised if Wilma was still a hurricane on approach to Canada. Even if she does shift to extratropical, she will be a doozy . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17587
57. 2jamie 9:40 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
>FloridaFox7 at 3:30 AM GMT on October 25, 2005.
>would be if UK got a Category 1...that'd make my day. >Ehehe....

Great, you come to fantastic blog to see how people fared and all you get is bigotry.

2jamie (UK)
58. IKE 10:28 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
Hurricane season is just about over. Thank God....let it end!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
59. novascotiagal 11:06 AM GMT on October 25, 2005    
we're in halifax, so sheltered by the harbour and we're quite a bit above sea level. our biggest worry here i would say is the damaging winds (and the fact that if we lose power it could be for a few days).
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 17
60. snowboy 12:14 PM GMT on October 25, 2005    
mornin NSgal, looks like Wilma will stay out to sea so you'll just have the usual maritime weather (strong winds and heavy rains) :-)
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
61. snowboy 12:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2005    
8 am NHC advisory:

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...WILMA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...
505 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING
WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES...695 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST
COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
62. rxse7en 12:59 PM GMT on October 25, 2005    
Morning all. Hope everyone faired well. Only light rain here in Jax yesterday. Cold and clear today.

Just noticed that the GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS have "something" forming in the SW Cairb. in three days. Anyone else see this?

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
63. TPaul 1:53 PM GMT on October 25, 2005    
code1, didn't know there were any other Big Blue fans on here. Can't wait for basketball season. Can anyone spare a football coach, we need to get rid of ours.
Member Since: May 2, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 111
64. HurryKaneKata 3:50 PM GMT on October 25, 2005    
To LobCarl and NovascotiaGal

How are things in your part of the Universe Today?
65. TheSnowman 8:13 PM GMT on April 14, 2006    
OH MY Looking back .....if we only knew we were going to go ALL THE WAY To Eta (if the SubTropical Storm had been identified when it should have)

April 14th - 2006

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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