Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

Share this Blog
31
+

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Solar Eclipse
Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)
Oregon Annular

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 407 - 357

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Any chance that td 2e will cross Mexico into the Gulf?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I say nop. A very disorganized mess. Wind shear is howling.

I agree.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33134
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say yellow at 7pm either 10% or 20%


I say nop. A very disorganized mess. Wind shear is howling.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11580
i know nam is not a tropical model just for reference

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
wow blue in the W Caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
Look at how quickly Tropical Depression Two-E has consolidated and strengthened. This is no tropical depression anymore.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 998.6mb/ 53.0kt

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33134
401. wunderkidcayman
11:29 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
I say yellow at 7pm either 10% or 20%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
400. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:29 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
WTNT01 KNGU 212100
WARNING ATCN MIL 01L NAT 120521203927

2012052118 01L ALBERTO 009 01 080 07 SATL 020
T000 305N 0783W 035 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 317N 0764W 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 334N 0743W 030
T036 354N 0717W 030
T048 375N 0690W 025
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
399. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:28 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Just wrote a blog!

Gone with the wind shear; TD #Two-E a threat to Mexico; Watching the Atlantic
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33134
398. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:27 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
I think Alberto is finally dead. This has got to be the worst it has ever looked.


And boy! Ain't this thing a beast. Looks like a strong tropical storm. 65-70mph.
they held on because chance was there but now its gone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
397. Ameister12
11:25 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
I think Alberto is finally dead. This has got to be the worst it has ever looked.


And boy! Ain't this thing a beast. Looks like a strong tropical storm. 65-70mph. Guam is getting hit very hard right now by 03W.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5089
396. stormpetrol
11:25 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Yellow circle in GOH at 7CST.?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
395. LargoFl
11:22 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
394. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:20 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
XX/INV/XL
MARK
15.55N/82.33W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
393. RTSplayer
11:18 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Low level circulation on W. Caribbean system is very large indeed.

Mid level winds are still screwed up, especially on the north side, and so it'll take another day to get that sorted out.

Big one there.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
392. stormpetrol
11:17 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
new shear map show 10kt shear in the S GOH shear is droping in the area and is expected to drop pretty low over most of the NW caribbean by 36 hours Vort as increased in the area at 850mb 700mb and 500mb it have good lower convergence the LLC near Belize has gotten stronger but still elongated W-E but should consolidate as it move ESE-SE

Link

They have 1009mb Low where you said it should have been.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
391. LargoFl
11:12 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
390. cg2916
11:11 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
So, we've got Alberto (well, sort of), TD 2-E in the EPac, TD3 in the West Pacific, and our Caribbean AOI, which we've not been able to guess if it's going to spin up or not.

Welcome to 2012, guys!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:08 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
6:00 AM JST May 22 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marianas

From Tiyan, Guam NWS
----------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.4N 144.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 13.8N 142.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
thanks hades
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
388. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:06 PM GMT on May 21, 2012


a few strong convective fields over western africa
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
387. LargoFl
11:06 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
386. LargoFl
11:02 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
385. LargoFl
11:01 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
384. LargoFl
10:58 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
383. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:57 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
382. LargoFl
10:56 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
614 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

MIZ076-212300-
WAYNE-
614 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER DOWNTOWN DETROIT...MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME PONDING ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN THE
DOWNTOWN AREA.

$$

MR
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
381. GeoffreyWPB
10:56 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11580
380. LargoFl
10:55 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
OHC071-220145-
/O.NEW.KILN.FF.W.0016.120521T2245Z-120522T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
645 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HIGHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT.

* AT 630 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED TWO TO THREE
INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN THE WARNED AREA.

* HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WITH ANOTHER
ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM EDT. RUNOFF FROM
THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HILLSBORO...LEESBURG...LYNCHBURG...
SAMANTHA...PAINT CREEK STATE PARK...
AND ALONG US ROUTE 62 BETWEEN HILLSBORO AND LYNCHBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE IF YOU ARE IN A LOW LYING AREA...
ALONG A CREEK...STREAM OR IN AN AREA EXPERIENCING FLOODING. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

NEVER DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. ONLY A FEW INCHES
OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. FIND AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE OR WAIT UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 8380 3924 8380 3926 8378 3938 8360
3938 8342 3928 8343 3918 8352

$$

HATZOS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
379. LargoFl
10:53 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
lets not forget the northeast..lots of rain there too.........................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
624 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

PAC051-220115-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FA.Y.0007.120521T2224Z-120522T0115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
624 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 623 PM EDT...STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN UNIONTOWN, WITH
NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODING IN HOPWOOD. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST HOUR
WITH A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTING 1.90 INCHES IN HOPWOOD.

SHOWERS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH
AN ADDITIONAL HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STREET FLOODING TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG DUNLAP CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING
TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 7988 3995 7960 3973 7967 3984 7990

$$

WOODRUM
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
378. cyclonekid
10:52 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Looks like we may have a typhoon shortly. The structure on this thing is amazing. I feel sorry for the people on Guam right now. They will get battered by this storm.



Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
377. LargoFl
10:49 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
looks like whatever forms down there will likely follow alberto out into the atlantic
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 43036
376. Doppler22
10:48 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Ok so TD2E needs to become Tropical Storm Bud now and I think it has sustained winds of 60-70mph.... and i have a feeling Alberto will be downgraded to a TD status at the next update
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3899
375. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
10:46 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03
6:00 AM JST May 22 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Marianas

From Tiyan, Guam NWS
----------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.4N 144.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 13.8N 142.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 53 Comments: 47629
374. GeoffreyWPB
10:46 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11580
373. stormpetrol
10:42 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Thank goodness while still windy, the rain has let up quite a bit at least in my area!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
372. Patrap
10:41 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
WP032012 - Tropical Storm THREE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop


..click image for Loop







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130493
371. nigel20
10:32 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


lots on the map for may 21/2012 are we sure its not july
That's what i would like to know
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8570
370. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:29 PM GMT on May 21, 2012


lots on the map for may 21/2012 are we sure its not july
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56482
369. GeoffreyWPB
10:24 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Tropical Storm 03W
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11580
368. MAweatherboy1
10:24 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to the official agency, JMA, 03W is still at tropical depression status.

Makes sense to me.

This is what a TS looks like



While this is clearly a TD

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8087
367. GeoffreyWPB
10:20 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Arrivederci Alberto...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11580
366. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:20 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
According to the official agency, JMA, 03W is still at tropical depression status.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33134
365. Patrap
10:20 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130493
364. JrWeathermanFL
10:19 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Kiss baby Bert bye bye

Who's Bert?
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 2533
363. Patrap
10:19 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130493
362. wunderkidcayman
10:19 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
new shear map show 10kt shear in the S GOH shear is droping in the area and is expected to drop pretty low over most of the NW caribbean by 36 hours Vort as increased in the area at 850mb 700mb and 500mb it have good lower convergence the LLC near Belize has gotten stronger but still elongated W-E but should consolidate as it move ESE-SE
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
361. MAweatherboy1
10:17 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


This is prolly going to be our first case in any basin of rapid intensification! Wow

At least 70 mph now

I agree... I'm hoping/expecting to see a pinhole eye pop out before the night is over
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8087
360. winter123
10:15 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Ok, NOW rip alberto. People were calling it 2 days ago, but it persisted. It's now being devoured by the giant noreaster-esque low.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1802
359. weatherh98
10:15 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at the structure on this thing, wow! It's only a minimal tropical storm at that!



This is prolly going to be our first case in any basin of rapid intensification! Wow

At least 70 mph now
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
358. weatherh98
10:13 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:
Updated shear tendency map.



Kiss baby Bert bye bye
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540
357. weatherh98
10:13 PM GMT on May 21, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: When will "Beryl", the second named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, develop?

A.) This week
B.) Next week
C.) First week of June
D.) Second week of June/afterwards

Q: What will Tropical Depression Two-E peak as?

A.) Tropical Depression/Tropical Storm
B.) Category 1 hurricane
C.) Category 2 hurricane
D.) Major hurricane


B
D

Wow going to 8th grade graduation, went by to fast.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6540

Viewing: 407 - 357

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto
New Years Day Sunset in Death Valley
Big Sur Clouds