Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

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Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Solar Eclipse
Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)
Oregon Annular

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Can anybody honestly say they think TS Alberto is stronger than TD2 E right now?

Heck No!
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Quoting nigel20:
OK. Mandeville is a very nice and cool town...there are many Jamaicans living Cayman as well


Most of my best friends are Jamaican, we live like brothers!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7844
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You guys are doing good not quoting him.


Generally the people who quote the trolls are worse than the trolls themselves. :/
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Why TD2E ain't a named storm yet?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7844
You guys are doing good not quoting him.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
539. j2008
I'm back, just had to go make room in the troll filter. I'm almost sure that 2E is a tropical storm and Alberto is dead. I see reading back that most of you think the same thing......
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10 "!"s and he's gone...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Cybr, do you think TD TWO-E is a Tropical Storm right now?
What's up Tropics?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
Quoting JasonCoolMan2000:
what is that? I see some big tropical wave here maybe tropical depression tomorrow.

oh no it start again now what it going to become a FISH STORM right
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11805
Oh boy.... Here we go again!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Impressive. Earlier I saw a depressed center as if it was forming an eye or an eye-like feature. If this thing is a TD, then Alberto's the most beautiful, convection-filled storm to ever grace the Atlantic.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting JasonCoolMan2000:
look I see some white.


NHC must be searching for that yellow crayon. I think Brennan dropped it after 93L.
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Cybr, do you think TD TWO-E is a Tropical Storm right now?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14223
Quoting AllStar17:
Even the WPAC is getting in on the action now.
The tropics is fairly active after a loll in tropical activity
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7978
Quoting cg2916:


It still needs to close that low, which, last time I checked, is still important!

true but shouldn't take too long
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11805
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I believe it is but just a little elongated and weak in wind speed in some parts


It still needs to close that low, which, last time I checked, is still important!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Maybe this is from the wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday...


Nope it is from this. :P

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Quoting cg2916:


Should be interesting to watch then. Trying not to wishcast, but it'll be interesting to see if anything spins up. Now if it could just close that low...

I believe it is but just a little elongated and weak in wind speed in some parts
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11805
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.




Maybe this is from the wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The low pressure in the Caribbean.


The CMC used to be Constantly Making Cyclones, now it looks like the GFS wants in on the fun!
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Quoting cg2916:


Where is that coming from?

The low pressure in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Even the WPAC is getting in on the action now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.


So now the Atlantic wants to have Beryl and the C storm all form in May?.lol.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.




Where is that coming from?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep very much so


Should be interesting to watch then. Trying not to wishcast, but it'll be interesting to see if anything spins up. Now if it could just close that low...
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18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.


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Quoting cg2916:


At that point, is the AOI supposed to be below the shear belt?

yep very much so
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11805

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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