Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

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Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012 (Acouostic)
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Solar Eclipse (thomasanthony)
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Solar Eclipse
Oregon Annular (silverbeaver59)
Oregon Annular

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Whoa! Anti-Cyclone over the AOI?

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the heaviest is yet to fall
for the little crabs on the wall
then it will be gone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Quoting stormpetrol:


Good for the ducks, I miss the ducks as you know I used have about 100 hanging around my house, but the Darvenport/ San Sabastian Development I suspect destroyed their habitat so they went elswhere! I agree with you the L will probably be up later tonight!


This rain is unbelievable. I have two 8 inch deep wells in my back yard that work really well and they are struggling to keep up with the rain rate. Fortunately my home sits on the front lot which is much higher.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Good for the ducks, I miss the ducks as you know I used have about 100 hanging around my house, but the Darvenport/ San Sabastian Development I suspect destroyed their habitat so they went elswhere! I agree with you the L will probably be up later tonight!

lol the ducks

anyway the low should be on the map soon plus I expect a yellow circle later this eveing
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


But aren't all of the current models predicting this system to go over cuba then east of Florida, over the weary Bahamas and then out to sea?

The models could shift west, I guess.


Yes, at the moment they are, but depending on the timing of a trough it could move over South Florida first. The NOGAPS has it developing faster than the other models. Most were not developing this until the end of the week. However, it is not unusual to see a flare-up of these systems, and then they die out quickly.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12Z Nogaps..the storm dosent get going until after passing the bahamas..does the same thing as the CMC but has it hitting New England then doing a loop back south



Man that sucks I'm on the west coast of FL. and looks like no rain for me.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I just looked at that but not enough there IMO to warrant placing a low there right now. The way things are going though I would not be surprised to see a surface low back on the map this evening, especially if shear continues to fall throughout the day and allows the thunderstorms to cluster in the GOH where the 850 mb vort already exists.

The whistling ducks are having a ball in my backyard !


Good for the ducks, I miss the ducks as you know I used have about 100 hanging around my house, but the Darvenport/ San Sabastian Development I suspect destroyed their habitat so they went elswhere! I agree with you the L will probably be up later tonight!
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hey stormpetrol the Met office got flood warning and boating advisorys going through Fri
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Winds are light however, this map would support a surface low in the area.



Could we be looking at a yellow circle?
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12Z Nogaps..the storm dosent get going until after passing the bahamas..does the same thing as the CMC but has it hitting New England then doing a loop back south



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Quoting Cayman2010:
Has 5 ... just drainage that is struggling to keep up :-)


Stay dry.
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Quoting Grothar:





But aren't all of the current models predicting this system to go over cuba then east of Florida, over the weary Bahamas and then out to sea?

The models could shift west, I guess.
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.
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Quoting Grothar:


I hope your building has a 4th floor.
Has 5 ... just drainage that is struggling to keep up :-)
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W-WNW at La Caiba
WNW at Half moon Caye
NNE at Chetumal, Q. Roo
ENE at cozumel
E-ESE at buoy 42056 near yucatan
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Link

Flood warnings
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Quoting reedzone:
He's finally growing in size...



Hey reed! Long time no see bud! How goes it? Wow what an early start to the season. Alberto was just 100-150 miles S of me from here in Richmond Saturday. It was a perfectly clear day, and very calm. I could actually see the high cirrus clouds associated with Alberto to my south.
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Dvorak numbers increase to TS territory for TD TWO-E.

21/1745 UTC 9.2N 101.5W T2.5/2.5 02E -- East Pacific
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12Z CMC--got it passing through the bahamas, then doing a loop back to the east coast like Alberto did and head back south..





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Good afternoon all.

What in the world is THIS???



Looks for all the world like an Ibo egwuwu, or a very colourful Rasta....

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
133. kmanislander 2:12 PM EDT on May 21, 2012

Hey K. Nice to see you and hope to have some of your regular Caribbean "Desk" analysis this Season... :)


LOL. Good to see you too. It's a real frog strangler here today. 6 inches plus since midnight and climbing.
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133. kmanislander 2:12 PM EDT on May 21, 2012

Hey K. Nice to see you and hope to have some of your regular Caribbean "Desk" analysis this Season... :)
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Quoting stormpetrol:


west winds just south of Roatan.


I just looked at that but not enough there IMO to warrant placing a low there right now. The way things are going though I would not be surprised to see a surface low back on the map this evening, especially if shear continues to fall throughout the day and allows the thunderstorms to cluster in the GOH where the 850 mb vort already exists.

The whistling ducks are having a ball in my backyard !
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Quoting stormpetrol:
WE getting hammered with rain here in Grand Cayman!


It looks like it is getting more convection quickly.


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Quoting Cayman2010:
Even my balcony is flooding ... and I'm on the 3rd floor.


I hope your building has a 4th floor.
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Link
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A possible Memorial Day storm for parts of Florida?



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Good Afternoon and Thanks Dr. M. Looks like we are off to a quick start in the E-Pac and lots of moisture around the Caribbean but sheer remains relatively high in those parts as expected this time of the year.

Link

Nice reminder on Your post yesterday that Alberto was a rare anomaly and not an indicator of an active "pre-season" on the Atlantic side for the June-July time period.

If the E-Pac really gets going over the next few weeks, things should quiet down on the Atlantic side but the pieces, like the slow rise of the ITCZ, are starting to fall into place. As always, the big issue down the road in a few months is where the A-B high will settle in for the Summer so we get a better idea of the general steering pattern for the Cape Verde storms come August and September; although they may be fewer in number, trajectory and ultimate landfall is what really counts at the end of the day (season).

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



west winds just south of Roatan.
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wow I cant see beyond about 100meters in the rain and wind
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Rain amount is incorrect but gusty winds are right.
Almost gusting to tropical storm force
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8920
Quoting stormpetrol:
WE getting hammered with rain here in Grand Cayman!
Even my balcony is flooding ... and I'm on the 3rd floor.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

38mph wind gust in East End within the last hour!
Rain amount is incorrect but gusty winds are right.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
WE getting hammered with rain here in Grand Cayman!
Quoting stormpetrol:
WE getting hammered with rain here in Grand Cayman!
Keep safe petrol!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8920
Link

38mph wind gust in East End within the last hour!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
WE getting hammered with rain here in Grand Cayman!
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8920
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Interesting that the 12Z GFS doesn't show the caribbean system low but instead shows a hybrid type storm forming and moving WSW into NE FL or GA.
Hey Tracker2K. What's up?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8920
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A possible Memorial Day storm for parts of Florida?


Interesting that the 12Z GFS doesn't show the caribbean system low but instead shows a hybrid type storm forming and moving WSW into NE FL or GA.
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Would appear to be wrapping up finally.

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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