Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

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The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.


Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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679. sunlinepr
7:53 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Fukushima Update:


Trillions of becquerels per day still being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi — Radioactive steam continues (VIDEO)

Published: May 20th, 2012 at 12:12 pm ET

If You Love This Planet Radio
May 8, 2012

I would say there are billions, actually trillions, of becquerels per day being released airborne, mainly from Units 2 and 3.

Actually on cold nights you can still the steam coming off those reactors, its not just steam its radioactive steam.

Something on the order of trillions of becquerels per day… trillions of disintegrations per second per day are being released even now.


Dr. Helen Caldicott: So what you’re really saying Arnie Gundersen is that the ocean will continue to be contaminated, kind of for the rest of time. Because there’s no foreseeable way to prevent water leaking out of containment vessels continuously into the ocean… We’re talking about continual contamination of the Pacific Ocean.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
678. Jedkins01
5:38 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Apparently a tornado touched down here in Pinellas County not far from where I got pelted with hail, that would explain the concentration of power flashes last night and emergency vehicles headed in the vicinity where it occurred. Apparently there was no tornado warning either. I've actually seen that happen more than once, I think sometimes that the vortex is often shallow in such situations, lacking a large meso with the apparent thunderstorm ,therefore the tornado was able to occur without enough radar signature to pick up, at least I would think so. I was tracking the thunderstorm on radar and didn't see any obvious sign of rotation that would warrant a tornado touch down, yet there you have it, a 10% chance of rain turned into a powerful thunderstorm that also produced a weak tornado without warning, lol.


Considering the lack of radar signature, I would certainly say no blame can be placed on the NWS for not issuing a warning.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7833
677. nigel20
3:33 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Daily SOI: 1.78 30 day SOI: 1.67
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8317
676. Skyepony (Mod)
3:32 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Lastnight's TRMM Pass

Click pic to open a large Quicktime animation.



I left lastnight's ASCAT & OSCAT passes in my blog. They are 12 hrs so old, wasn't sure if they got posted here already.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
675. wunderkidcayman
3:31 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where did you get this from ? Anyway, NHC has the low back on the map and concvection is increasing.

I see but they should have put it further S and E and should have put it as stationary instead of moving SSW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12419
674. Chicklit
3:31 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, it has always been Knabb.


Does anyone remember who Dr. Masters' pick was for the job?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
673. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:31 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
672. BrickellBreeze
3:30 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting presslord:
VERY wi ndy and choppy at Chas Harbor


Whats the Wind Speed in Knts? How many nautical miles are you from shore?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
671. melwerle
3:29 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Looks like a party in here...

Early start to the season, huh?

Can anyone provide me a link to the forecast models? I seem to have misplaced them since I moved to Ca.

Thanks, M
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
670. tiggeriffic
3:28 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
mornin press...how was that boat ride?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3650
669. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:28 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wasn't landsea picked or did it change

Nope, it has always been Knabb.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
668. CaicosRetiredSailor
3:26 PM GMT on May 20, 2012

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6064
667. kmanhurricaneman
3:24 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Hello all, good to see that the regulars are still here, looks like we have a early start to the season, i wondwer what that means mmmmmmmmm! Alberto small and i dont expect much from him.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
666. cg2916
3:23 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Possible convective refire up north?

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
665. Dragod66
3:22 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Thanks!!!
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
664. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:21 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting SLU:
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.

“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”

Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.

Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.

Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.

"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."

The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.
wasn't landsea picked or did it change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
663. nigel20
3:20 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Good morning all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8317
662. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:19 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Not where I am. Just ask Xandra!
good late afternoon gro
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
661. stormwatcherCI
3:18 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
1440UTC SUN 20 MAY 2012
PRE 94L AROUND 16.5N 87.5W MOVEMENT STATIONARY

NOTE:convection starting to grow on SW quadrant and NE quadrant. Pressures are weak but as this system grow pressures should drop. Shear is running at 20kt-25kt, should also note. Shear is expected to drop to 10kt-15kt in 24 hours, and 5-10kt in 48 hours.
$
AM
Where did you get this from ? Anyway, NHC has the low back on the map and concvection is increasing.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8424
660. Grothar
3:17 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
659. presslord
3:17 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
VERY wi ndy and choppy at Chas Harbor
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
658. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:16 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting Dragod66:
cant find a dry air map


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
657. BrickellBreeze
3:15 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting cg2916:


Barry the firefighter was your last one, wasn't it?


What?

I live in West Doral, Florida. What are you talking about?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
656. Grothar
3:15 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Gro, it's morning!!


Not where I am. Just ask Xandra!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26848
655. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:14 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting cg2916:
When is the recon supposed to take off?

This afternoon according to the NHC. They weren't too specific when I asked them lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
654. Skyepony (Mod)
3:11 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting cg2916:
When is the recon supposed to take off?


It's not on the Plan of the Day which has been inactive since winter storm flying ended end of March, though that could update any moment. Usually a center fix would be 2pm est so I'll guess that. It may be done as a Non-Task Mission..Nothing is flying there yet, you can watch for that here..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
653. SLU
3:10 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., today announced Rick Knabb, Ph.D., as the next director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. Knabb will start his duties on June 4.

“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”

Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.

Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.

Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.

"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."

The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.

Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, the National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5355
652. MAweatherboy1
3:08 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Blow up an area of deep convection or you won't survive, Alberto.


It's looking more Jose like by the minute.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7941
651. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:06 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Blow up an area of deep convection or you won't survive, Alberto.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
650. cg2916
3:05 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Due to the shape of the coastline, I believe a landfall in southern Georgia or extreme north east Florida may be possible.

- South Florida resident.

(Streak of no Hurricanes: 8 Years) (Streak of No Moderete tropical storms: 5 Years)


Barry the firefighter was your last one, wasn't it?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
649. wunderkidcayman
3:04 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
1440UTC SUN 20 MAY 2012
PRE 94L AROUND 16.5N 87.5W MOVEMENT STATIONARY

NOTE:convection starting to grow on SW quadrant and NE quadrant. Pressures are weak but as this system grow pressures should drop. Shear is running at 20kt-25kt, should also note. Shear is expected to drop to 10kt-15kt in 24 hours, and 5-10kt in 48 hours.
$
AM
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12419
648. Dragod66
3:03 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
cant find a dry air map
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 620
647. cg2916
3:03 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
When is the recon supposed to take off?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
646. wxmod
3:01 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Earthquake list for area of last years huge quake in Japan shows very active movement underway.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1765
645. Skyepony (Mod)
3:01 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Skye, how do you see 92E,that has taken an eternal time to develop?


That twist is huge..that's really slowing development, well that & it's feeding off the really long line of troughiness that is feeding Gulf of Honduras & developing gale in the Atlantic. Til that splits up & we see where splits first & how much each area gets it's hard to say a definite when. There is also a bit of energy moving at it from the east, might be disruptive at first. 93E looks capable of eventually digesting it though, could be the kick it needs to get free. I'll give it 50% chance.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 192 Comments: 38650
644. RTSplayer
2:55 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:
Wait, The sateellite llc is away from where it looks like on radar


Satellites have foreshortening for storms that aren't directly below them.

Also, the low and upper level parts of the system are almost never stacked until about the high end of category 1 or low category 2.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
643. BrickellBreeze
2:55 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


What? You gotta say florida!!!


Due to the shape of the coastline, I believe a landfall in southern Georgia or extreme north east Florida may be possible.

- South Florida resident.

(Streak of no Hurricanes: 8 Years) (Streak of No Moderete tropical storms: 5 Years)
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
642. Tropicsweatherpr
2:54 PM GMT on May 20, 2012

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED THIS MORNING...AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
SYSTEM. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL
SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR NOW. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AT
WHICH TIME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE.

ALBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST THREE STRIKES AGAINST ANY
RE-INTENSIFICATION. FIRST...DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ARE
ROUGHLY 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY INGESTING
SOME OF THIS DRY AIR. SECOND...THE CENTER IS MOVING WEST OF THE
GULF STREAM OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/
GEORGIA COAST. AND THIRD...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE KEEPS ALBERTO AT LOW-END TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING ON
THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION.

A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CAUSED ALBERTO
TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS 250/5 KT. THE BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD
TODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE CLUSTER OF OTHER MODELS
AND SHOWS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS ON DAYS 3 AND 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 31.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 31.2N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 31.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.3N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 34.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1200Z 39.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14557
641. cg2916
2:53 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Recon going in later!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
640. RTSplayer
2:52 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting cg2916:
I wake up to a better, but still weak, Alberto. Doesn't look like this thing's going to do much. However, for some reason, some of the models predict this thing to get a little stronger in 48 or so hours. Will be interesting to see.


It's on the border of a 27C hot pocket, which is easily the warmest water it's encountered.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
639. weatherh98
2:52 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Wait, The sateellite llc is away from where it looks like on radar
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
638. GTcooliebai
2:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
000
WTNT31 KNHC 201450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS A LITTLE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
637. hydrus
2:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21744
636. Tropicsweatherpr
2:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS A LITTLE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 79.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY. A
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH



Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14557
635. weatherh98
2:48 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Alberto, where do you think you're going?


Where else but florida
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
634. weatherh98
2:48 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Alberto, where do you think you're going?


Where else but florida
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
633. cg2916
2:47 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Alberto, where do you think you're going?


It may be giving Savannah a visit. I wonder if this thing will turn to the north as it was forecasted.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
632. weatherh98
2:46 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Georgia Landfall?


What? You gotta say florida!!!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
631. cg2916
2:46 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
I wake up to a better, but still weak, Alberto. Doesn't look like this thing's going to do much. However, for some reason, some of the models predict this thing to get a little stronger in 48 or so hours. Will be interesting to see.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
630. hydrus
2:46 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
pinhole.?..jk..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21744
629. WeatherNerdPR
2:46 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Alberto, where do you think you're going?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.