Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

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The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.


Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Hey Pat,

You chat with MissNafia today???
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well'p Nothing to see here folks!
This was just a drill! I repeat this was just a drill.
Back to blob watching. :|
Alberto, Good luck, and happy trails... :P
Don't give me any surprises tomorrow morning...




you wake up too a cat 5 hurricane in the AM by Alberto
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Despite the apparent decoupling, could the Central Coast of SC (including Charleston) suddenly see tropical storm conditions as the heavier convection depicted on radar begins to move onshore? If not, it would not surprise me if Alberto has no sustained tropical storm force winds whatsoever.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


When the systems circulations separate from out under each other. (This case, LLC and MLC)

Basically, the system is no longer vertically stacked and it cannot strengthen.

(Forgive my grammar...been a long day)

thank you! I had a hunch it was something like that, I just wasn't sure.
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Quoting CothranRoss:
I am still a novice when it comes to these kind of things, and googling meteorological terms doesn't usually end well. Can somebody explain decoupling to me?


Generally speaking, a well formed tropical storm is "vertically" stacked like a stovepipe from top to bottom with the center of circulation/i.e. eye in a stronger storm in the center. This creates the maximum efficiency. When a storm is decoupled, this means that sheer or other factors have caused the storm to become lopsided (typically sheer blowing over the higher levels of the storm) and the center of circulation becomes displaced and removed from the main area of convection. Levi posted an earlier picture below where you can see the "naked" low level center of circulation well away (to the east) of most of the convection and wind field.

Think of this as a lopsided smokestack....
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Quoting CothranRoss:
I am still a novice when it comes to these kind of things, and googling meteorological terms doesn't usually end well. Can somebody explain decoupling to me?


When the systems circulations separate from out under each other. (This case, LLC and MLC)

Basically, the system is no longer vertically stacked and it cannot strengthen.

(Forgive my grammar...been a long day)
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
473. LBAR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Honestly, it would just be better off for everyone if Alberto just ran into SC/NC and dropped at least some needed rainfall.

With the extent of the decoupling taking place, I would say that this one's future is looking very bleak.


I'm getting some much-needed rainfall! I love about 3 miles from the actual sandy beaches/mashes, but it's not moving much further inland...yet.
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Ok...so I am going thru the weekend trying to get stuff done not really paying attention to the news at all...we go to an auction this evening just to get away from it all and my phone sends me a weather alert...i click the app thinking yep, more rain like the other night so I have to watch for local flooding...when the sucker finally comes up there is a named storm...REALLY???? That was a big "Hey you, stupid, think its time to start getting your supplies ready" kind of thing....
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I am still a novice when it comes to these kind of things, and googling meteorological terms doesn't usually end well. Can somebody explain decoupling to me?
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Honestly, it would just be better off for everyone if Alberto just ran into SC/NC and dropped at least some needed rainfall.

With the extent of the decoupling taking place, I would say that this one's future is looking very bleak.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

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Quoting Skyepony:
Alberto came uncoupled. Scene has changed from a curved band to shear. Mean Cloudtop temp warmed from peak of -20.63 to -4.26 in 3 hrs. Central area temp is up to 17.34 as the convection-less swirl slowly moves SW. Maybe the night will revive it.


Well'p Nothing to see here folks!
This was just a drill! I repeat this was just a drill.
Back to blob watching. :|
Alberto, Good luck, and happy trails... :P
Don't give me any surprises tomorrow morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening Folks. Was out all day today, watched Star Trek with the kids on MeTV a few hours ago, grabbed a beer to get ready to watch SNL, turn on the news, and Alberto is the first named storm of the season in late-May......Fascinating......
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465. j2008
True test for Alberto is if he can overcome this decoupleing. Way its going now, he may just tear himself apart by morining. The middle level low will make landfall and the lower level will keep on its SW path. If this is the case we may have just seen any chance of a hurricane get thrown out the window.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Pat & Skye -----

Go to my blog. We did the first WU Salute of the year! (for us old timers you remember the infamous SALUTES) ROFL


Very cool.

Salute'..

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AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

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Anybody know who is taking the place of Dr. Knabb at TWC, now that he's moving to the NHC? Hopefully someone good that doesn't feed people non-sense(Scenario:) so they don't freak out to the reality that there's a possible storm that could threaten they're area. Which in my mind is ridiculous, If there's a possibility of something threatening somewhere, YOU DON'T DOWNPLAY IT AND PUSH IT OFF AS SOMETHING THAT WON'T BE DEADLY.
and That's why I don't watch TWC...
I miss Dr. Lyons
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Pat & Skye -----

Go to my blog. We did the first WU Salute of the year! (for us old timers you remember the infamous SALUTES) ROFL


The photo is on my blog.... wouldn't want to upset anyone by posting here!
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A nice pre-Season warm up so Folks can start preparing for the Big uns.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8349
Hi all --- Welcome to Hurricane Season!
Here on the FL Panhandle we had a WU (aka WUBA) Meet! Just in time for the first storm!
We are ready to roll!
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Wilmington
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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454. Skyepony (Mod)
Alberto came uncoupled. Scene has changed from a curved band to shear. Mean Cloudtop temp warmed from peak of -20.63 to -4.26 in 3 hrs. Central area temp is up to 17.34 as the convection-less swirl slowly moves SW. Maybe the night will revive it.

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453. wxmod
There is a large green spot in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean over 14000 feet of water. The top is a MODIS satellite photo. The bottom shows the exact location.




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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
The ghosts of Alberto and Karen may be united by tomorrow morning at this rate.
LMAO that is so true.
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Good Night. I'm not sure if I should expect a decoupled and barely alive Alberto in the morning, or a re-strengthened and vertically stacked storm.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks to be in the process of decoupling.

Shouldn't be much left if this is completed.

may disappear as fast as it formed hmmmm

unless convection commence rebuild after midnight if not its done
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks to be in the process of decoupling.

Shouldn't be much left if this is completed.

The ghosts of Alberto and Karen may be united by tomorrow morning at this rate.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Geez...

This one looks pretty sheared and blasted to death.

Very obvious LLC escaping out from the cloud deck.



I remember Chris.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14596
Looks to be in the process of decoupling.

Shouldn't be much left if this is completed.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Just my take but the upper level winds have been the only things holding back tropical development the last few years.I'm talking Western Atlantic. Which has been good news for us in Fl. and elsewhere in the US. That is whats holding back the development of the present two systems. it may change or probably will change either this season, or one in the future.It seems that the excess energy being dump into the atmosphere is creating an unstable upper atmosphere which maybe good for tornadoes but hostile to hurricanes. IMO
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444. Skyepony (Mod)
AF300 flew today. Chucked a dropsonde near PR.
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Alberto will get to what strength...
(A) 60 Mph, right now. Nothing more.
(B) 65 Mph, a little stronger, but won't strengthen much more.
(C) 70 Mph, Gets close to attaining hurricane status.
(D) Category 1, Atlantic's first May hurricane in over 20 years.

When will our next storm occur?
(A) This coming week
(B) Before the month ends
(C) June
(D) July
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Very interesting...

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THERE IS TOO LITTLE MARGIN FOR
ERROR TO NOT ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946

000
WTNT41 KNHC 200254
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE INTENSITY OF ALBERTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THIS
EVENING. WHILE AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SUGGESTED THE STORM WAS
STRONGER...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE
DECLINE SINCE THEN...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE
COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIP REPORT AND THE LOWER SATELLITE/RADAR
ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MODERATE SHEAR ALONG
WITH PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
WEAKENING...AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR
THE CONSENSUS.

ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...AS IT IS
BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN IN A
DAY OR SO...WITH A COMPLEX STEERING FLOW PROBABLY CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS
MODEL CYCLE...THOUGH MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS STILL KEEP THE
STORM OFFSHORE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THERE IS TOO LITTLE MARGIN FOR
ERROR TO NOT ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 31.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 31.4N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H...DURING THE PAST HOUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8349
439. LBAR
Special Marine Warning now effect for most of Charleston county. Rain is starting to really move in where I live in Charleston County.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&produc t=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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Tropical storm watch issued for the coastal areas.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 200253
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H...DURING THE PAST HOUR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
Down to 50 mph, 998 mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 200251
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
0300 UTC SUN MAY 20 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 60SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.4N 79.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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11 pm in, Alberto down to 50mph with a 998mb pressure.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't really have to strengthen significantly to attain hurricane status.


Going from a naked swirl to a hurricane I would consider rather significant.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...gonna scream if we have another year of these...


Well, you're going to have high shear in mid-May, which is why everyone shouldn't have gotten their hopes up for Alberto to hit hurricane status, because as it is right now Alberto is the strongest May tropical cyclone in almost 42 years in terms of pressure as it is.

If this was happening in July though, I'd agree with you.
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Think the NHC is coordinating with NWS ILM for tropical storm watches....or not.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32553
429. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT from this afternoon. Notice how well to the surface the Low NE of Alberto was.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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