Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

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The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.


Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Glad you made it in OK Presslord!

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Quoting tiggeriffic:
Ok...so I am going thru the weekend trying to get stuff done not really paying attention to the news at all...we go to an auction this evening just to get away from it all and my phone sends me a weather alert...i click the app thinking yep, more rain like the other night so I have to watch for local flooding...when the sucker finally comes up there is a named storm...REALLY???? That was a big "Hey you, stupid, think its time to start getting your supplies ready" kind of thing....
Ayup... it's that time of year, alright....

lol.... good to see u in the blog, tigger....

Quoting Tazmanian:




you wake up too a cat 5 hurricane in the AM by Alberto
One hopes not! Taz, u r very bad....

lol

Quoting presslord:
docked and worn out....raining in Charleston
Glad to see u made it in ok.

Quoting uncwhurricane85:
this storm isnt even worth talking about! weve recieved more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall
Yep, but not because it's likely to bring severe conditions to the coast. I don't think the NHC actually expects it to make landfall at all.

Quoting MrstormX:
D-Min and D-Max are completely overhyped if you will on this website, as can be seen D-max had little to no affect on Alberto in fact it kept weakening. I seem to remember it did little to past systems as well, not to say it doesn't exist because it does but it might be only a minor factor. Hope this doesn't come off as a rant, but I think somebody has to say it...
Actually, DMax / DMin have greater impacts on Twaves and depressions than they do on more organized storms. Understanding that little fact may do a lot to clarify what is "hyped" and what is not.

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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting MrstormX:
D-Min and D-Max are completely overhyped if you will on this website, as can be seen D-max had little to no affect on Alberto in fact it kept weakening. I seem to remember it did little to past systems as well, not to say it doesn't exist because it does but it might be only a minor factor. Hope this doesn't come off as a rant, but I think somebody has to say it...


It just helped the convection a little bit
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According to this there still appears to be a circulation in the GOH.
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Cycone Oz is enroute to the Outer Banks to document and broadcast its passage!
This will be a good practice run for what may be an active land fall season!
Go Brian!
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GOH low moved inland overnight.
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Fresh update, enjoy!
Alberto meandering off the US Coast - 5/20/12
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
ATCF sees the weakening; winds are down 5 knots, pressure is up two millibars:

AL, 01, 2012052012, , BEST, 0, 317N, 793W, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 60, 1013, 60, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALBERTO, M
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Thanks guys...got it now.
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Alberto has definitely recovered from DMAX, looks good.

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Quoting muddertracker:


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)


Good morning.

The NHC conducted an ambiguity analysis on the ASCAT pass of yesterday morning and determined that the low was closed. Based upon that and other data they classified Alberto.
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Quoting muddertracker:


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)


well they used radar/sattelite, ship/buoy data, and blogger from Weather underground lol
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Quoting muddertracker:


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)

They didn't send a plane. They decided to classify it after analyzing satellite and radar data.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Definitely closed.


Yeah...that's a great shot!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

umm I think if it wasn't closed I don't think they would have called it a tropical storm and give it a name I don't even think they would call that a TD


No argument there..you are absolutely correct..I was just wondering how they determined it for Alberto...they usually send in HH to do that...just wondering when they went in yesterday :)
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Quoting muddertracker:
Alberto has a closed low...apparenty?.. How'd they determine that? Did they send in HH or use other data?


Definitely closed.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN TEXAS...

GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR BLOOMINGTON AFFECTING CALHOUN AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES

.RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO
STATIONS...OR CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION...AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD AFFECT CREST
FORECASTS.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP. IN THE BLUE MENU SECTION ON THE LEFT OF
OUR HOME PAGE...UNDER THE "CURRENT WEATHER" SUBMENU...CLICK
ON "RIVERS/LAKES" WHICH TAKES YOU TO OUR AHPS WEB PAGE.


&&

TXC057-469-201915-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120521T1130Z/
/DUPT2.1.ER.120518T1552Z.120519T1700Z.120520T1930 Z.NO/
815 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE GUADALUPE RIVER NEAR BLOOMINGTON.
* UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 8:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

* AT 20.0 FEET MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING OCCURS...WITH THE FLOW REACHING
THE RIGHT FLOOD PLAIN NEAR THE INVISTA PLANT NEAR BLOOMINGTON.
DOWNSTREAM ABOVE HIGHWAY 35...THE FLOW ESCAPES INTO THE LEFT FLOOD
PLAIN CUTTING OFF THE LOWEST HOMES.

$$

&&

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIVER STAGES AND STAGE FORECASTS:


FLD LATEST FORECAST 6 AM LST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU

GUADALUPE RIVER
BLOOMINGTON 20 21.9 SAT 08 PM 21.1 17.9 14.6 13.4 13.5

$$
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Quoting muddertracker:
Alberto has a closed low...apparenty?.. How'd they determine that? Did they send in HH or use other data?

umm I think if it wasn't closed I don't think they would have called it a tropical storm and give it a name I don't even think they would call that a TD
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Alberto has a closed low...apparenty?.. How'd they determine that? Did they send in HH or use other data?
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Off to Church. See every one later.
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Morning everyone...

I missed all the excitement yesterday when Alberto formed. How much fun it is to have something to watch this early in the year....

Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur. [From the doc's comments above]

This implies to me that the little spin in the GOH is a more worrisome indicator of what the season could bring than is Alberto. I don't know how busy the overall season is likely to be, but I would not be at all surprised to see a fair amount of early season activity, that is, above average for the MJJ period.

In any case, I'm going to enjoy Alberto while he is around....

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Always very cool to have the benefit of watching real time doppler images when these storms are close to shore (or as they make landfall if that were the case).
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Alberto looks better than last night. Good Morning.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
D-Min and D-Max are completely overhyped if you will on this website, as can be seen D-max had little to no affect on Alberto in fact it kept weakening. I seem to remember it did little to past systems as well, not to say it doesn't exist because it does but it might be only a minor factor. Hope this doesn't come off as a rant, but I think somebody has to say it...
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Alberto keeps pulsing convection. Yesterday around 6 p.m., it peaked around 60 mph. I didn't expect much strengthening this morning, the conditions are just not there for further development, however, for the first storm to make it up to 60 mph in May, is pretty darn good. I'm satisfied.
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Good Morning.
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Good Morning. 92E is up to 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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538 uncwhurricane85: This storm isnt even worth talking about! We've received more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall.

Once upon a time, PatRobertson prophesized that God'sWrath would send a HUGE hurricane to destroy DisneyWorld and Orlando because they didn't prevent an unofficial GayDay from happening there.
And sure enough, 2 HUGE hurricanes wreaked havoc...
...upon PatRobertson's 700Club home turf in VirginiaBeach: 1998's Bonnie and 1999's Floyd.
Those same two HurricaneSeasons were relatively mild for Florida considering its history.

In other words, don't go predictin' what a hurricane will do damage-wise lest ya jinx yourself.

Sometimes ya can almost get the feelin' that hurricanes have a very VICIOUS sense of humor:
NewOrleans breathed a sigh of relief because the worst of Katrina was over... then the levees collapsed.
Rita heads at the Houston metroplex like a maddened bull charges a rodeo clown -- terrifying people with visions of "another Katrina" so soon after the original -- then veers away... after proving that Houston's DisasterEvacuationPlan was a disaster in&of itself.
Then after all too many of those folks had convinced themselves that the Rita fiasco proved that nothing was worth putting up with the hassle of a mass evacuation, Ike takes out the Galveston area.

Edit in: 503 KEEPEROFTHEGATE: [Atlantic SurfaceWind Map]

Now that's a cool map.
At least along the surface, looks like the Bermuda-AzoresHigh is trying spinning up TSAlberto off of SouthCarolina AND trying to spinup the low off of the Virgina-NorthCarolina border, blocking TSAlberto from heading north.
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Deleted and moved to 551 cus I wanted to make sure KEEPEROFTHEGATE sees it.
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News from the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization:

Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms


Changes in frequencies of storms in the Midwest, by category of storm size for five decades, 1961-1970 through 2001-2010. Labeled changes are for the last decade. Comparisons are to frequencies in 1961-1990.

The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and Natural Resources Defense Council have released a new report, Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms, which starkly documents how much heavy precipitation has increased in the Midwest and sheds new light on the devastating and costly floods that have hammered the region, especially in recent years.

New RMCO analysis of a half century of precipitation data across the Midwest, defined as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin, indicates the region has had an increasing number of large storms since 1961. The largest of storms—those of three inches or more of precipitation in a single day—have increased the most, with their annual frequency more than doubling over the past 51 years. The frequencies of all large storms, especially the largest, have particularly spiked this century.

[…]

The report also presents new evidence linking extreme storms in the Midwest to major floods, the region's most costly regularly ocurring natural disasters. The new analysis shows that the two worst years in the Midwest for storms of three inches or more per day were 2008 and 1993, the years with the Midwest's worst floods in some 80 years, which caused $16 billion and $33 billion in damages and rank among the nation's worst natural disasters. The report presents new evidence linking the 2008 flooding to extreme storms, showing that, in areas with the worst flooding, 48% of the local precipitation came from extreme storms.

As Stephen Saunders, president of RMCO and the report's primary author, said: “Global studies already show that human-caused climate change is driving more extreme precipitation, and now we’ve documented how great the increase has been in the Midwest and linked the extreme storms to flooding in the region. A threshold may already have been crossed, so that major floods in the Midwest perhaps now should no longer be considered purely natural disasters but instead mixed natural/unnatural disasters. And if emissions keep going up, the forecast is for more extreme storms in the region.”

Read the whole thing here
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5 Die After Earthquake In Italy

ROME — An earthquake struck the northern Italian region of Emilia Romagna on Sunday, killing five people, wounding at least 50 and damaging historic buildings as well as warehouses and factories, officials said.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
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I'm not really sure about this, but the lack of convection looks like Alberto is smaller than Marco (2008).......for now
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You need a magnifying glass to see Alberto but there's definitely been a pretty substantial burst of convection in the last two frames of this:

Link

Having said that, Alberto was really beaten down yesterday, and D-Max didn't help it at all.
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Good Morning folks..we got a real good soaking rain for about a half hour or so last night around 10:30 or so,late night sea breeze kinda storm..this morning sky is clear..going to be a hot sunny day here along the west coast..have a great day everyone
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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO DRIFT PARALLEL TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
OUTER RAINBANDS OF ALBERTO CONTINUE TO COME ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND BERKELEY...INLAND JASPER...BEAUFORT...COASTAL COLLETON...
CHARLESTON...COASTAL JASPER AND TIDAL BERKELEY.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...COASTAL BRYAN...COASTAL CHATHAM...
COASTAL LIBERTY AND COASTAL MCINTOSH...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM
RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7N...LONGITUDE 78.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SC...OR ABOUT 130 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH
GA. STORM MOTION WAS WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BE A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINS AND STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE
OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 1/4 INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT MAYBE UP TO 1/2
INCH ALONG THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES
FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GAZ117-119-139-141-211000-
/O.NEW.KCHS.HU.S.1001.120520T0951Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
GEORGIA COASTLINE...

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONGER THAN NORMAL WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC COASTAL BEACHES TODAY.

$$
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Good morning... 0z GFS 276 hours:



Alberto:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
this storm isnt even worth talking about! weve recieved more rain/wind from thunderstorms the past 4 days than we will see with this even if it makes landfall
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Alberto kinda fell apart the last hour. (Again)
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 200848
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND
0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO
LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING
STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A
TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME
WHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY
AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
CAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT
DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 31.7N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.4N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 31.2N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 31.6N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.8N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 36.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/0600Z 39.0N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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CycloneOz broadcasts live on crazymother.tv
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I dont believe Cyclone Oz is going to the Carolinas. Thats a joke
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What is the storm doing this morning?
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Who is Cyclone Oz?


Quoting KennyNebraska:
Cyclone Oz says he is on his way to the Carolina's
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Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalStormAlberto
32.2n78.0w has been re-evaluated&altered
32.0n78.2w, 31.8n78.7w are now the newest positions

On 20May6amGMT, TSAlberto's ATCF position was 31.8n78.7w
Its vector has changed from WSW at ~6.8mph(11k/h)* to WSW at ~5.4mph(8.7k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have decreased from ~50knots(58mph)93k/h to ~45knots(52mph)83k/h
And minimum pressure has increased from 995millibars to 998millibars
For those who like to visually track TSAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida - FHB is FernandinaBeach,Florida - SSI is St.SimonsIsland,Georgia

The northeasternmost unconnected dot was TSAlberto's initial position as 93L
The easternmost dot on the short line-segments is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The easternmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position

The 08ga*coastline-dumbbell is the endpoint of the previous straightline projection
connected to its closest airport (near Darien,Georgia)
The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to the coastline
TSAlberto was headed toward passing over FernandinaBeach,Florida in ~1day7hours from now

Copy&paste jax, fhb, ssi, 08ga-31.323n81.286w, svn, hhh, bft, kjzi, gge, 33.4n76.4w, 33.3n76.6w, 33.1n76.8w, 32.9n77.1w, 32.5n77.3w, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 32.0n78.2w-30.655n81.433w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.

* Because 32.2n78.0w was re-evaluated&altered to 32.0n78.2w, the speed&direction would have been calculated diffently for the previous mapping using the (now)correct position. So the 08GA dumbell shows an incorrect endpoint because of an incorrect previous straightline projection.
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
But the previous vector(direction&speed) has been corrected to reflect that change to 32.0n78.2w
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Cyclone Oz says he is on his way to the Carolina's
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Quoting Patrap:


Wilmington
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



a surprise could be landfall in SC
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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