Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

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The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.


Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.

Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
92E



Is it safe to say 92E has turned out a bust or could it still end up developing?

Definitely not. The ECMWf didnt even start developing it until around this time. 92E is still very much destined to become a hurricane.

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228. Gorty
Oh man, I need to some how find all my sats, radars, and models I used last year during hurricane season lol.
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you can never have too many tropical storm cut and pastes

000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Quoting Gorty:


IF we do, will it be the first hurricane ever recorded in May in the ATL?

It'd be the first in a while but not first ever
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Quoting Gorty:


IF we do, will it be the first hurricane ever recorded in May in the ATL?


To my knowledge, Able in 1951 and Alma in 1970 are the only ones, but I'm sure I'm forgetting others prior to 1950.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we may see a Hurricane yet Cat 1 could be possible


Now that would be something, marking the first such occurrence since... 1970?
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222. Gorty
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we may see a Hurricane yet Cat 1 could be possible


IF we do, will it be the first hurricane ever recorded in May in the ATL?
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Definitely better organized...

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Quoting LargoFl:
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




thats old and it is stronger now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting KoritheMan:
So Alberto forms, eh? There's one I didn't anticipate. That's certainly gonna be reflected in my TCR for the storm.

we may see a Hurricane yet Cat 1 could be possible
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56012
000
WTNT41 KNHC 192042
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE
LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N. BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
FROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
ALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH
AND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS
ALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD
AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF
HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

ALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
SINCE ANA IN 2003. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL
STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.2N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 31.9N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 31.9N 78.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 34.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 37.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92E



Is it safe to say 92E has turned out a bust or could it still end up developing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hydrus, since I'm about to do another blog, I'll just answer your question here: I originally predicted 12/7/3, and so far I've encountered no reason to change it.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Radar tells a very different story than satellite does... Seems either elongated or has two competing centers.

The last few frames look to show an area beginning to wrap up around where that "hole" is on satellite imagery.
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In other news, the EPAC invest is back up to orange (30%).
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
So Alberto forms, eh? There's one I didn't anticipate. That's certainly gonna be reflected in my TCR for the storm.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192349
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT
WITHOUT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE


Finnally goes up in %.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thanks for re-posting my image. lol


It is a very nice Sat. Loop. Love it. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192349
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT
WITHOUT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
209. TDogg
Quoting nigel20:
Hey TDogg. Are you an elephant man fan?


Yes! Saw him in Negril 12 years ago and been a fan ever since.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HellcatS281:
I wonder if this is telling of things to come this season..

like i said earlier
might be an omen yes
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56012
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM AND SAVANNAH GA TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR AND GRAYS
REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

AMZ350-200930-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
657 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE.
.SUN...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.MON...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT... SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF TSTMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.WED...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.THU...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT...SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

MARINERS ARE REMINDED THAT WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR TSTMS.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
206. Gorty
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Correct.


Ok thank you :)
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Quoting HellcatS281:
I wonder if this is telling of things to come this season..
No, we've gotten earlier storms before in inactive seasons...though what the 2012 hurricane season will bring is yet to be seen.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
620 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...CHARLESTON...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED
HAZARDS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.2N...LONGITUDE 77.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SC. STORM MOTION WAS SW OR
220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS INTO MONDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST,

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND 9 PM...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

SCZ050-200430-
/O.CON.KCHS.HU.S.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHARLESTON-
620 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
AS CURRENTLY ASSESSED...THE ONSET OF EITHER TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN
EFFECT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

PLEASE KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AS ANY
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OR INCREASE IN
SIZE OR INTENSITY COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BEING ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON COUNTY.

$$
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Radar tells a very different story than satellite does... Seems either elongated or has two competing centers.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Interesting...what dobyou think it is? A center relocation with a developing eye maybe?


Doubt anything significant.

Internals look to have become linear and oriented from W to E.

Might take 3-6 hours to see if anything develops from it.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Gorty:
With an untrained eye, it seems like Alberto is not doing that bad. Am I right or wrong?

Correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HellcatS281:
I wonder if this is telling of things to come this season..


No this is like snow season and tornado season, the big early one and then some minor stuff after.

Wait a minute, the big early one?!?!??!
Raise the DoomCon.
Category 5 hurricane going to sweeep the mid-atlantic.
SARCASM FLAG_ON

I think this may be peak, or as it reorganizes, it may hit 70.
HRRR has pressures steadily falling for the next 15 hours.
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Quoting HellcatS281:
I wonder if this is telling of things to come this season..
I was just thinking the same thing
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197. xcool
good job by euro
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
195. Gorty
With an untrained eye, it seems like Alberto is not doing that bad. Am I right or wrong?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Something is trying to go on around where the marker is.

Too bad visible is gone:



Interesting...what dobyou think it is? A center relocation with a developing eye maybe?
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Quoting emcf30:


Thanks for re-posting my image. lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
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I wonder if this is telling of things to come this season..
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Aaright, back from dinner, what did I missOMG ALBERTO IS AT 60MPH?!?!?! That was.... Unexpected, as it was looking weaker last I saw!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting TDogg:
Chilling here right now in Chucktown. I'm just glad I don't have to run my AC! I know the Washout will be busy tomorrow if Alberto keeps drifting SW.
Hey TDogg. Are you an elephant man fan?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8471
Interesting.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129818
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, I guess the model that forecast that wasn't the HRRR then. Sorry about that.


Only thing I can think of would be the 00z SPC WRF.

12z run has it around 55 knots (71 knot wind is coming from a low to the east)

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Patrap:
Well that sure looks like a hurricane.
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HRRR:

NOW



In a while
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If you guys are going off models forecasted intensity, the fact that the NHC is going off observations from the actual ships out there shows the models dont have a clue on this storm intensity yet..Im going to take a leap and say we might see Hurricane Alberto..this storm is supposed to sit over the gulf stream until Monday, you never know what may happen..the sampling of this storm wont be until monday anyway according to the NWS in wilmington, by that time, it may peak even more
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Nice way to end the day.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Link?

Only goes out to 15 hours.


Oh, I guess the model that forecast that wasn't the HRRR then. Sorry about that.
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New frame 23:02 UTC Viz..shows some towers still climbing

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129818
179. TDogg
Chilling here right now in Chucktown. I'm just glad I don't have to run my AC! I know the Washout will be busy tomorrow if Alberto keeps drifting SW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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