Tropical Storm Alberto forms off the South Carolina coast
The first named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Tropical Storm Alberto formed this afternoon off the coast of South Carolina--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Alberto has the potential to hit North Carolina as early as Monday, but since the storm is so small, it would only affect a small area of the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Upper level winds out of the southwest are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear over Alberto, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, slowing development. The dry air impinging on Alberto from the southwest can be seen in water vapor satellite loops. Heavy rain showers from Alberto are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye.
Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Alberto taken at 1:50 pm EDT Saturday May 19, 2012. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for Alberto
Rain showers from Alberto are likely to move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. The storm is too small to cause major flooding problems, particularly since the coast is under moderate to severe drought. Alberto's rains will not be plentiful enough to cause significant drought relief, except perhaps over a small region near the coast, where (and if) the storm makes landfall. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Since the storm is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Steering currents are weak, and Alberto will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. The moderate wind shear and dry air are likely to keep Alberto below hurricane strength. NHC is giving Alberto a 5 - 10% chance of reaching hurricane strength before dissipating on Thursday as it scoots northeast out to sea.
Figure 2. Late afternoon radar image of Alberto from the Wilmington radar.
Alberto in historical context
Alberto is earliest-forming tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since Ana in 2003, which formed on April 21. Alberto is one of only three Atlantic tropical storms to form in May in the past 31 years. The others were Tropical Storm Arthur of 2008, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 1981. There was also a subtropical storm, Andrea, that formed in May of 2007. Formation of an early season tropical storm from an old frontal boundary, like occurred with Alberto, is not a harbinger of an active hurricane season--it's more of a random occurrence. Early season storms that form in the Caribbean, though, often signal that a busy hurricane season may occur.
I'll have an update Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's looking more Jose like by the minute.
“When hurricanes threaten our coastal communities, those in harm’s way look to NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for life-saving information,” said Lubchenco. “Rick personifies that calm, clear and trusted voice that the nation has come to rely on. Rick will also lead our hurricane center team and work closely with federal, state and local emergency management authorities to ensure the public is prepared to weather the storm.”
Knabb returns to NOAA after most recently serving as the on-air tropical weather expert for The Weather Channel in Atlanta since May 2010. Prior to that, Knabb was deputy director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, and before that, he had a distinguished career at the National Hurricane Center in Miami as a senior hurricane specialist and the science and operations officer.
Knabb succeeds Bill Read who retires June 2. “I thank Bill Read for his tireless work throughout his distinguished career with the National Weather Service, including more than four years as director of the National Hurricane Center overseeing 63 tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin alone,” added Lubchenco.
Born just outside of Chicago, Knabb grew up in Coral Springs, Fla., near Ft. Lauderdale, and in Katy, Texas in suburban Houston. He earned a bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Purdue University and holds a master’s degree and Ph.D. in Meteorology from Florida State University.
"I'm ready to reunite with the talented staff at the National Hurricane Center and to work with all of our partners to prepare everyone for the next hurricane,” said Knabb. “Personal preparedness will be critically important, including for my own family and home."
The National Hurricane Center is a component of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The Center’s mission is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous tropical weather and by increasing understanding of these hazards, enabling communities to be safe from tropical weather threats. The National Hurricane Center is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami-South Florida forecast office on the campus of Florida International University.
Rick Knabb, Ph.D., selected to lead
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center
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It's not on the Plan of the Day which has been inactive since winter storm flying ended end of March, though that could update any moment. Usually a center fix would be 2pm est so I'll guess that. It may be done as a Non-Task Mission..Nothing is flying there yet, you can watch for that here..
This afternoon according to the NHC. They weren't too specific when I asked them lol.
Not where I am. Just ask Xandra!
What?
I live in West Doral, Florida. What are you talking about?
Thanks!!!
Nope, it has always been Knabb.
Early start to the season, huh?
Can anyone provide me a link to the forecast models? I seem to have misplaced them since I moved to Ca.
Thanks, M
Whats the Wind Speed in Knts? How many nautical miles are you from shore?
Does anyone remember who Dr. Masters' pick was for the job?
I see but they should have put it further S and E and should have put it as stationary instead of moving SSW
Click pic to open a large Quicktime animation.
I left lastnight's ASCAT & OSCAT passes in my blog. They are 12 hrs so old, wasn't sure if they got posted here already.
Considering the lack of radar signature, I would certainly say no blame can be placed on the NWS for not issuing a warning.
Trillions of becquerels per day still being emitted from Fukushima Daiichi — Radioactive steam continues (VIDEO)
Published: May 20th, 2012 at 12:12 pm ET
If You Love This Planet Radio
May 8, 2012
I would say there are billions, actually trillions, of becquerels per day being released airborne, mainly from Units 2 and 3.
Actually on cold nights you can still the steam coming off those reactors, its not just steam its radioactive steam.
Something on the order of trillions of becquerels per day… trillions of disintegrations per second per day are being released even now.
Dr. Helen Caldicott: So what you’re really saying Arnie Gundersen is that the ocean will continue to be contaminated, kind of for the rest of time. Because there’s no foreseeable way to prevent water leaking out of containment vessels continuously into the ocean… We’re talking about continual contamination of the Pacific Ocean.
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