Disturbance 93L off South Carolina coast could become a tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:11 PM GMT on May 19, 2012

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A hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed in the waters off the coast of South Carolina, about 120 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach--a little going-away present for outgoing NHC director Bill Read, who retires on June 1! Residents along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast should pay attention to 93L, as it has the potential to strengthen into a tropical storm and hit the coast on Sunday or Monday, with North Carolina at highest risk. NHC designated this system Invest 93L Saturday morning. Wind shear is a moderate 20 knots over 93L, and the storm is over the warm waters of Gulf Stream, which are 81°F (27°C), just above the 26°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. The system is tangled up with an upper level trough of low pressure, which is pumping cold, dry air into the storm, inhibiting development. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, through Monday, which is low enough that 93L has a decent chance of developing into the Atlantic's first tropical depression. Since 93L is very small, it is highly vulnerable to even a modest increase in wind shear or dry air, which could rapidly disrupt it. Conversely, the storm's small size and favorable positioning over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream mean it is also capable of suddenly organizing, and it would not be surprise to see 93L become Tropical Storm Alberto by Sunday. NHC is giving 92L a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Monday. Since 93L is so small, the computer models are having trouble resolving it, and we don't have very good forecasts of the storm right now. Steering currents are weak, and I expect 93L will wander off the coast of South Carolina through Sunday, before getting caught up by a trough of low pressure on Monday which should lift it out to the northeast. Heavy rain showers from 93L are located about 50 miles offshore of the coast of South Carolina, as seen on Wilmington radar. These showers will probably move onshore between Charleston and Wilmington Saturday night and Sunday, bringing 1 - 3 inches of rain to portions of the coast. At times today, 93L has had a cloud-free center resembling an eye on radar, but this was not a true eye, and winds are probably near 35 - 40 mph in the heaviest rain squalls near the center.


Figure 1. Afternoon radar image of 93L from the Wilmington radar.

Jeff Masters

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472. hydrus
2:38 PM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:


Pressures are significantly falling now all across the West/ NW Caribbean.
Wow.! 981.2 over Eastern Jamaica.!..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
471. sunlinepr
1:59 AM GMT on May 20, 2012
Fukushima Update:

AGAIN: Three strong quakes in 15 minutes hit near same area as on 3/11 — M5.8, M5.0, M4.8 (MAPS)

CTV: No. 3 fuel pool “poses a greater risk of failing” than No. 4 — “Has not been strengthened since the disaster”

Gundersen: Japan is sitting on a ticking time bomb — “We’re all in a situation of having to pray there’s not an earthquake”

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9821
470. redwagon
1:03 AM GMT on May 20, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You are the most useful bot ever. So much for yelling "NEW BLOG!!1!1!" every time there's an update.

Plus the new bot opens the new blog in another window so you can seam up what you missed. Bravo!
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
469. Mclem1
11:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
SHIP INDICATES ALBERTO IS STRONGER...

REPORTS FROM A SHIP NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PRESSURE DATA...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH...95 KM/H. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND NO CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: August 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
468. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54344
467. stormpetrol
10:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2012


Pressures are significantly falling now all across the West/ NW Caribbean.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
466. Chucktown
9:57 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
This just from our NWS here in CHS

Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1769
465. wunderkidcayman
9:48 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
GOH low
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
464. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:46 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Hopefully a bad report...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
463. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:45 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
462. ProgressivePulse
9:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
I didn't expect this, wow.

And NO, a May storm doesn't mean we are going to have an active season now, lol.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
461. WeatherNerdPR
9:43 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

You are the most useful bot ever. So much for yelling "NEW BLOG!!1!1!" every time there's an update.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
460. weatherh98
9:42 PM GMT on May 19, 2012


It really could use a southern feeder band, that could blow it up but it wont get it....




too much dry air
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
459. Patrap
9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Presslord and crew are sailing south from Georgetown to McClennanville and are just N of the Storm along the coast.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
458. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
457. Hurricanes101
9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


I think the op meant nothing of any major consequence for Florida, especially wind-wise. Bonnie in 2010 was basically a non-event. Fay in 2008 caused major flooding in some areas. I am pretty sure there has not been a tropical cyclone since Wilma in 2005 that has caused any major, widespread wind damage in Florida. This is fortunate, but a bit odd.

Also, it appears that Alberto is moving slowly due west now.


I think you meant troll not op
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
456. washingtonian115
9:41 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think we may see 94L and maybe TD2 in the next comeing days
From where?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
455. ncstorm
9:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
wait..we got Alberto??
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
454. MAweatherboy1
9:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting j2008:
Moving true SW and maintaining convection. Love it, anybody know if any news outlets are pushing the panic/doom button yet?

TWC totally has it covered... Oh wait nevermind they're not even showing live programming :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
453. HurrMichaelOrl
9:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak:


You kinda contradicted yourself.


I think the op meant nothing of any major consequence for Florida, especially wind-wise. Bonnie in 2010 was basically a non-event. Fay in 2008 caused major flooding in some areas. I am pretty sure there has not been a tropical cyclone since Wilma in 2005 that has caused any major, widespread wind damage in Florida. This is fortunate, but a bit odd.

Also, it appears that Alberto is moving slowly due west now.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1129
452. wunderkidcayman
9:40 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
hey guys I think we may see 94L and maybe TD2 in the next comeing days
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
451. ncstorm
9:39 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Thanks Dr. Masters ..beautiful day over here in Wilmington..looks like things are about to change though
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
450. Patrap
9:38 PM GMT on May 19, 2012


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
449. MAweatherboy1
9:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Seems like it lost some convection a little earlier today but is now redevloping... It should be aided tonight when D-Max arrives
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
448. j2008
9:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Moving true SW and maintaining convection. Love it, anybody know if any news outlets are pushing the panic/doom button yet?
Member Since: December 19, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 224
447. Dakster
9:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
I am so glad this is supposed to be a season with fewer storms in it...

Anyways. This seems to have gotten the blog moving again.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10411
446. Patrap
9:37 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
445. washingtonian115
9:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We're on borrowed time right now... We are wayyyyyyyy overdue... Personally though I don't think this is the year... I think we could be threatened by some home grown Cat 1's or maybe even a Cat 2 but I don't think we see anything above that
Well this year is looking to be a homegrown year.And we could have some quick spin up storms like Alberto for example with the perfect conditions and could "bomb" out...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
444. MAweatherboy1
9:36 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


This may not turn out true

Alberto is definitely going to be hard to forecast intensity wise... I say a peak of 50-55 is likely
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
443. blsealevel
9:35 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
nope no warnings for anyone yet
looks like they arnt expecting much from this?


Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
442. WxGeekVA
9:35 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
441. weatherh98
9:34 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Speaking of pinhole eye....



RI
EWRC
CAT5CANE

AWeee yaaa

PINHOLE:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
440. HurricaneDean07
9:34 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


This may not turn out true

See we have Alberto. Thinking itll peak around 60-65 mph winds.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
439. tropicfreak
9:33 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
here we go already..... alberto is the first of all the storms this year that will not hit florida..... this will be the 8th year in a row of nothing in florida.... doesnt matter where they develop they will all move away from florida the force field is still up


You kinda contradicted yourself.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
438. weatherh98
9:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I just don't see it staying at the same intensity for so long.


I think peak at 60 within the next 36 hours before it weakens
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
437. HurrMichaelOrl
9:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting BADFORCASTAGAIN:
here we go already..... alberto is the first of all the storms this year that will not hit florida..... this will be the 8th year in a row of nothing in florida.... doesnt matter where they develop they will all move away from florida the force field is still up


I know, right.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1129
436. WxGeekVA
9:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Speaking of pinhole eye....

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
435. weatherh98
9:32 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You miss spelled Pin-hole eye.


LOL
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
434. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


This may not turn out true

Yeah, I just don't see it staying at the same intensity for so long.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
433. trey33
9:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting floridastorm:



Time to celebrate......music style!




Love it, love it, love it!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 499
432. MAweatherboy1
9:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if the U.S can go without a major hurricane this year...

We're on borrowed time right now... We are wayyyyyyyy overdue... Personally though I don't think this is the year... I think we could be threatened by some home grown Cat 1's or maybe even a Cat 2 but I don't think we see anything above that
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
431. hurricanehunter27
9:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
I am going to bet Alberto dies in the next 24 hours. I just don't think it will last that much longer.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
430. aspectre
9:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 92E
11.0n100.0w, 11.0n99.6w has been re-evaluated&altered
11.2n100.0w, 11.3n99.5w, 11.3n99.0w are now the new positions

Invest92E's vector has changed from ENE at ~5mph(9.3k/h) to East at ~4.9mph(9.2k/h)
Its MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at ~25knots(29mph)46k/h
And its minimum pressure has held steady at 1006millibars
For those who like to visually track 92E's path...

The northernmost dot on the connected lines was 92E's position as of 48hours ago
The dot on the the other end of the connected lines is 92E's most recent position
LZC is LazaroCardenas, ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo, ACA is Acapulco,
HUX is Huatulco, IZT is Ixtepec, and MTT is Minatitlan,

Copy&paste lzc, zih, aca, hux, izt, mtt, 11.6n100.0w-11.3n100.6w, 11.3n100.6w-11.2n100.6w, 11.2n100.6w-11.0n100.6w, 11.0n100.6w-10.8n100.5w, 10.8n100.5w-11.0n100.3w, 11.0n100.3w-11.2n100.0w, 11.2n100.0w-11.3n99.5w, 11.3n99.5w-11.3n99.0w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
And the previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
429. Patrap
9:30 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Just got off phone with Presslord on a Boat their moving offshore below the Storm in the Atlantic .


Hes sending me a pic of the Storm from his perspective.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
427. weatherh98
9:29 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Trolls just get worse and worse, We need some more crow
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
426. hurricanehunter27
9:28 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Its called an anticyclone:)
You miss spelled Pin-hole eye.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
425. weatherh98
9:28 PM GMT on May 19, 2012


This may not turn out true
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
424. washingtonian115
9:28 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
I wonder if the U.S can go without a major hurricane this year...Umm post 422 Bonnie in 2010 made a direct landfall with Florida.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17074
423. GeoffreyWPB
9:27 PM GMT on May 19, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11265

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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