Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

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The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 107.3W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
El Nino looks pretty assured by this point. Question is how strong it will get.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting MississippiWx:
El Nino is certainly not in any hurry to show his face. The up and down process continues along the Equatorial Pacific.



Today's CPC update has Nino 3.4 at 0.0C.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14327
I made a blog entry, check it out!

Tropical Depression One-E forms, no threat to Mexico
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
14/1745 UTC 10.0N 106.2W T2.0/2.0 01E -- East Pacific

Don't expect an upgrade for TD01E.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
El Nino is certainly not in any hurry to show his face. The up and down process continues along the Equatorial Pacific.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
nice to see a chance of showers out there huh, gee after last year, that was really bad


Definitely nice to see. Hopefully everyone gets the rains they need. :)
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FLC011-099-142015-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-120514T2015Z/
BROWARD FL-PALM BEACH FL-
403 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST PALM BEACH AND NORTHWEST BROWARD
COUNTIES...

AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG US 27...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2627 8055 2635 8048 2631 8029 2614 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 308DEG 8KT 2626 8046

$$

GARCIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Some of you weren't here on Saturday when I posted this, so I thought I'd post one more time. I caught a funnel cloud here on video Saturday. It's probably a lot neater to me since I've never actually seen one in person (much less a tornado). To make the video clearer, change the resolution setting to 1080p. Enjoy.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ah, there's the 90's. Well it was good while it lasted. :)

nice to see a chance of showers out there huh, gee after last year, that was really bad
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
weather alerts up and down the east coast now, some good ones in north and south carolina's..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
It seems like an eternity since we got Advisory 1 on TD One-E, finally the next one is only half an hour away (give or take a few minutes).
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Ah, there's the 90's. Well it was good while it lasted. :)

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
TD-1E isn't very impressive right now, but I'm glad that we finally has a tropical cyclone to watch. It has been too long.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Dear, Rain

please visit Tampa Bay today

Sincerely, GTcooliebai



So close yet so far...




There is a vort max out there producing convection in the gulf, for us to get rain around here we would need that to move in, although last night's area of energy just fell apart so we shall see what happens later tonight.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Your wrong the sun came out in full for a few hours and that is what is sparking off these storms and add and 80knt jet jet nosing in. Expect thunderstorms to continue to increase over the next few hours.



I didn't say there won't be thunderstorms, I said they would be limited compared to potential with full sun. Of course there will still be some, we have cooler air aloft and high moisture in place.

Also, no, I am not wrong, high clouds limit instability a lot more than you might think, this should help you get what I'm saying:







Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
Quoting reedzone:


It was both Extra Tropical and Tropical and had winds of 50 mph. It was clearly for 12 hours a Subtropical Storm. The original qualifications for a Subtropical Storm...

"A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone."

Source: WIKI

The NHC probably has updated their original criteria, so this didn't meet their new criteria for a Subtropical Cyclone. According to Wikis definition, this was a Subtropical Cyclone. You may mix science and graphs with it but the original definition is there, this was a Subtropical Cyclone. Whether it was named or not or Post Analysis is yet to be determined in a couple of months.

No, it was not a subtropical cyclone. The fact of the matter is, whether it had strong winds or a closed circulation or not, it did not have persistent convection for at least 12 hours. Yes, there's always post-season, but if they didn't classify it over the weekend due to this reason, what makes you think they'll do several months from now?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Dear, Rain

please visit Tampa Bay today

Sincerely, GTcooliebai



So close yet so far...

nice blob of rain there out in the gulf..would be nice to get a shower out of that here huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Dear, Rain

please visit Tampa Bay today

Sincerely, GTcooliebai



So close yet so far...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just got skirted by a pretty good thunderstorm (for May standards in MA)... The worst of it missed to my west but still a little thunder and lighting... It's holding together pretty well and heading towards Boston now
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7837
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Or not, looks to be falling apart. We do get a lot of storms that have that look, this rainy season looks like it's going to be a lot more intense this year than the last two (and to some extent, already has though that's not saying much).
supposed cool front comes thru tomorrow teddy, no real change in temps for us But..better chance of a few raindrops in our area as well they say
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Half-way to looping a second loop, and back at the position it held 2days18hours ago
92L's minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at 35knots(40mph)65k/h
Travel speed has increased from 5.2knots(6mph)9.7k/h to 7.3knots(8.5mph)13.7k/h
And for those who like to keep track of 92L's meanderings

The northernmost unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The unlabeled dot at which 3 line-segments meet is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 201miles(323kilometres)

Copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w, 34.0n33.9w-33.3n33.6w, 33.3n33.6w-32.9n33.2w, 32.9n33.2w-32.6n32.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
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Anyway, glad to see we finally have Tropical Depression 1E!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Jedkins01:



Strong cells like that happen every day in the wet season pattern along boundary collisions, I'm not sure what you're talking about, there are nothing special about those thunderstorms at all.


Anyways, thunderstorm development will be limited again today thanks to lots of high clouds. The clouds limit instability as well as the strength of sea breeze lift/convergence a lot more than it might seem it would.


Your wrong the sun came out in full for a few hours and that is what is sparking off these storms and add and 80knt jet jet nosing in. Expect thunderstorms to continue to increase over the next few hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.



864
WUUS52 KMFL 141950
SVRMFL
FLC011-099-142015-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0018.120514T1950Z-120514T2015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWEST BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
SOUTHWEST PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
US 27
RURAL NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND
OR LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOUR LOCATION, SEEK SHELTER IN
AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 2631 8029 2614 8045 2628 8062 2638 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 298DEG 6KT 2629 8049
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That almost looks like a supercell.


Or not, looks to be falling apart. We do get a lot of storms that have that look, this rainy season looks like it's going to be a lot more intense this year than the last two (and to some extent, already has though that's not saying much).
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Troll alert: StormTracker2L

Remember! Report, ignore, and move on!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5026
Report and ignore post #260/261...report and ignore.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
161. StormTracker2L

Member Since: May 14, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1



Me tinks we know this one,

Give it a wide berth
LoL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting LargoFl:
severe weather alert for Lake county florida..hope this link works.......Link
mary that link includes groveland in the alert ok..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting MaryMichell46:
I just talked to my cousin that just moved from Houston to Groveland Fl, and she said it was really bad there. Stormtracker, is this anywhere near where you saw the hook on the radar?



We get a lot of bad storms that don't get warnings down here... A lot of sea breeze thunderstorm events I've seen are worse than cold fronts with watch boxes and numerous warnings, its just how it works, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
severe weather alert for Lake county florida..hope this link works.......Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FLZ144-142015-
SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
324 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER
MASCOTTE...MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE CLERMONT AND FERNDALE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2870 8196 2878 8168 2878 8166 2859 8166
2859 8165 2856 8166 2850 8166 2844 8196
2865 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 251DEG 20KT 2858 8193

$$


WEITLICH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
warnings up for miami area..............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

FLZ067-068-071-072-142000-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
332 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWEST BROWARD COUNTY
SOUTHWEST PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PARKLAND TO 7 MILES NORTH OF MILE MARKER 30 ON
ALLIGATOR ALLEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
US 27
RURAL SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2637 8019 2614 8047 2627 8068 2645 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 281DEG 10KT 2637 8038 2625 8056

$$
GARCIA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dangerous storm to my west with rotation. You can even see the clouds moving in towards this cell. Don't see this very often in FL.




Strong cells like that happen every day in the wet season pattern along boundary collisions, I'm not sure what you're talking about, there are nothing special about those thunderstorms at all.


Anyways, thunderstorm development will be limited again today thanks to lots of high clouds. The clouds limit instability as well as the strength of sea breeze lift/convergence a lot more than it might seem it would.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7594
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Dangerous storm to my west with rotation. You can even see the clouds moving in towards this cell. Don't see this very often in FL.



That almost looks like a supercell.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting LargoFl:
nothing by us teddy..at least not yet there is a lil still out in the gulf, lets see if we get a few raindrops from those later on this afternoon or tonight..
A "litte" out in the Gulf? I wouldn't describe it as a little anything... just hoping all of that makes it to shore this evening intact
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I won't hold my breath. Tampa's shields are impenetrable.
lol lower the shields teddy!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39248

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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