Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

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The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
301. BahaHurican
11:29 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting Thrawst:
It may not look like much, considering it's hundreds of miles away from the Miami radar... but this thing is producing INSANE lightning.


We got a goodly shower from it as well.

Looks like we're up for round two about now...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
300. Ameister12
11:28 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
TD-1e is likely a tropical storm right now. Expect and upgrade next advisory.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5027
299. BahaHurican
11:27 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Evening all. Hearing some thunderboomers, and expect we'll get a few more showers here this evening.



Looks like FL saved some for us.... lol

And also it looks like the rainy season is in effect. First time in a while we've started raining about the time one would expect. The last few years we've been starting with regular p.m. showers during the last week of May or first week of June, if not later.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
298. nrtiwlnvragn
11:23 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Made official the eastern boundry for RECON in the Atlantic:

 Changed the eastern boundary of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron’s support
in the Atlantic Ocean from 55ºW to up to 52.5ºW, resources permitting (paragraph
5.5.1.3.1).


Opening Info - NHOP 12
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11221
297. 1900hurricane
11:22 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
I've never seen a Mesoscale Discussion issued for Mexico before. :P



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0812
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST TX INCLUDING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...

VALID 142246Z - 142345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE BIG BEND REGION AND WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NERN MEXICO FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS CENTER
OF LOW CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF LBB SHIFTING SOUTH IN LINE WITH
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS
NOTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX AND OVERTURNING
HAS EFFICIENTLY DESTROYED STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS ALL BUT
PORTIONS OF SWRN TX FROM THE SRN BALCONES ESCARPMENT INTO NERN
MEXICO. GIVEN THAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE NOW FOCUSED ACROSS NERN
MEXICO IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG
CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE AS MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD SOUTH TX.

..DARROW.. 05/14/2012


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...MAF...

LAT...LON 29480130 28490009 27610030 27610157 28820414 29810393
29480130
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11670
296. Patrap
11:21 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'.

The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds.

The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
295. GeoffreyWPB
11:19 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11318
294. hurricanehunter27
11:18 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:
If this isn't a TS then I don't know what is.

Well your in luck!
That is what a TS looks like.
Edit: It is actually my favorite hurricane in TS stage. Hurricane Alex. Would have been a Cat4 if the winds had time to keep up with the dropping pressure.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
293. yqt1001
11:16 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
If this isn't a TS then I don't know what is.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
292. GeoffreyWPB
11:12 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've never had a Fresca.


RC Cola is the best.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11318
291. hurricanehunter27
11:09 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've never had a Fresca.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
290. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:08 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It had a 40% chance at one point but it could only hold convection for a couple hours at a time so it was not deserving of a name


it held it structure for 4 hrs saturday afternoon from 1 pm till about 4 pm
it was a freak dev area and only received regonition because of its position to the southern azores islands
i was tracking it from point of declaration till it waned 4 hrs later
if it had maintained itself for 12 hrs or more
advis would have been issued along with a T.C.F.A. but it disappeared as fast as it appeared
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
289. PlazaRed
11:08 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
glow in the dark shower curtains
could become the next big thing on ebay


And just to keep them going/glowing, they could also list aerosol cans of radioactive particle mist, propelled by CFC's for good measure
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
288. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:07 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
I've never had a Fresca.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
287. MAweatherboy1
11:06 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
the `18Z GFS brings the storm into the GOM


I don't know if I'm the only one but I've given up on potential development in the Caribbean before the end of May... Not that I ever really thought it would happen in the first place... For one thing most of the last 2 days worth of GFS runs have shown nothing more than a weak TS... Also the GFS has shown this storm in the same time period for at least a week now without really bumping the time frame up... I think we're going to have to wait a little bit for our first Atlantic storm
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
286. WxGeekVA
11:06 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
the `18Z GFS brings the storm into the GOM



Uh oh.... Fresca time!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
285. GeoffreyWPB
11:05 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Hi and Dry later in the week...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11318
284. FLWeatherFreak91
11:03 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Ugh. The thunderstorm complex that was blowing up earlier this afternoon in the central gulf has since weakened and will continue to do so as it approaches the west coast of Florida.

Florida weather isn't what it used to be, that's for sure. Does anyone remember the old climate consisting of afternoon thunderstorms around 4 pm along the west coast? The almost yearly tropical storms? what happened?!
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3630
283. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:03 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting winter123:
What the ?!?! 92L had an eye and estimated winds of 50mph! (from JM's previous entry). What's your excuse this time NHC? I hope this one at least got a "near 0%" chance.


Maybe because it didn't have persistent convection for at least 12 hours? Just a thought. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
282. MAweatherboy1
11:02 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting winter123:
What the ?!?! 92L had an eye and estimated winds of 50mph! (from JM's previous entry). What's your excuse this time NHC? I hope this one at least got a "near 0%" chance.


It had a 40% chance at one point but it could only hold convection for a couple hours at a time so it was not deserving of a name
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:01 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
glow in the dark shower curtains
could become the next big thing on ebay

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
280. winter123
11:00 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
What the ?!?! 92L had an eye and estimated winds of 50mph! (from JM's previous entry). What's your excuse this time NHC? I hope this one at least got a "near 0%" chance.

Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1799
279. PedleyCA
10:56 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


either that or sent in the curtain
nothing gets by that
well for the last few years anyway


just chillin as always pedley



Can't be anything we want back. Because it will glow in the dark after that.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5952
278. hurricaneben
10:54 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Here in Boca Raton, light to moderate rain is falling. A bit of lightning earlier, but nothing bad, the winds are pretty much dead calm so it's just a muggy rain shower. Some strong thunderstorms farther to my west, in the Clewiston area, with decent wind gusts and dangerous lightning.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 419 Comments: 679
277. ncstorm
10:54 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
the `18Z GFS brings the storm into the GOM

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
276. hydrus
10:53 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 14 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21488
275. PlazaRed
10:51 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
What Happens when a Typhoon skirts along Fukushima Prefecture's coastline over the Reactors and we have a radioactive infused tropical Cyclone paralleling the Japanese Mainland ?

Godzilla would be heading South.


Yer,
I supose that by the time the cyclone season gets well under way the Japanese nuclear kettle will be about coming to the boil.
Its a matter of controversy if the winds will be from the south, showering China with the nuclear mists or maybe a trifle more westerly to bring a glow to the Western Pacific seaboard, in the dead of night!
We are at a loss as to what to do about this one? This might turn into the first man made volcano as nothings going to cool it down!
A lot of people don't seem to take this thing seriously? I supose they could give it an Oscar for best man made disaster move ever, then it might get the attention it deserves!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
274. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:50 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA:


I think we need to loan them the Tampa Shield for awhile.


either that or sent in the curtain
nothing gets by that
well for the last few years anyway


just chillin as always pedley

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
273. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:49 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


13,maybe this disturbance behind 1-E is the one.

A WAVE LIKE DISTURBANCE ALONG ABOUT 90W HAS SHOWN SOME MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY WWD.

Yeah, that's it. It should move westward for the next three to four days before the ECMWF has it turning towards the Mexican coastline. The GFS shows the same.

So, a potential hurricane that would likely hit land? We'll have to watch this one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
272. Patrap
10:49 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Station Residents Await Launch of Crewmates

At the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, final preparations are under way for the launch of Flight Engineers Joe Acaba, Gennady Padalka and Sergei Revin aboard the Soyuz TMA-04M spacecraft on Monday at 11:01 p.m. EDT. The three crew members conducted their final "fit check" inspection Friday of the Soyuz vehicle in its assembly building.

On Saturday, the Soyuz was be mated to its booster before being rolled out by rail to the launch pad Sunday.

The trio will join their Expedition 31 crewmates aboard the station after the Soyuz docks to the Poisk module at 12:38 a.m. Thursday.


The Soyuz TMA-04M spacecraft sits atop the launch pad at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
271. ncstorm
10:49 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
18Z Nogaps..992 Mb in the epac..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
270. PedleyCA
10:47 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
heres a tune



Sup Keep,

That guy looks like the City Lights map.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5952
269. Tropicsweatherpr
10:44 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And it has good potential to become a hurricane according to the ECMWF.


13,maybe this disturbance behind 1-E is the one.

A WAVE LIKE DISTURBANCE ALONG ABOUT 90W HAS SHOWN SOME MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ACTIVE CONVECTION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY WWD.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14406
268. PedleyCA
10:43 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
What Happens when a Typhoon skirts along Fukushima Prefecture's coastline over the Reactors and we have a radioactive infused tropical Cyclone paralleling the Japanese Mainland ?

Godzilla would be heading South.



I think we need to loan them the Tampa Shield for awhile.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5952
267. Patrap
10:43 PM GMT on May 14, 2012


Typhoon Roke seen by a Japanese weather satellite (Sept. 20).2011

CREDIT: Japan Meteorological Agency
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
266. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:43 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
heres a tune

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
265. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:41 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Wait, we are discussing Transformers now?
i think that i speak the truth but what do i know
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
264. hurricaneben
10:41 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
sorry guys im not buying the el nino development until september. yes the t depth anomalies show warm water arriving to the surface but we still have a cold pdo. when the pdo is cold el nino can not form. thats not to say over the summer the pdo weakens and el nino does develop. also it takes about a month for atmospheric conditions of a certain enso phase to take effect. so so when we were neutral in march it took up to may for the atmosphere to reflect neutral conditions. if an el nino forms past august then i dont see why this atlantic hurricane season wont be slighltly above average in terms of activity. i dont buy the 10 storms 5 hurricanes and 2 major. that sounds like a guranteed moderate el nino for sure. My numbers are 13-14 storms 7-8 hurricanes 3-4 major. you may disagree or agree with me but I do see el nino developing but not as soon as some people see it forming.


I do agree. While a 2010/2011-like season, in terms of activity, is likely not in store, this may not be quite '09 either. Quietness does not look to be completely the case this season, but I don't expect anything overly busy either.
Member Since: May 15, 2009 Posts: 419 Comments: 679
263. ncstorm
10:41 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Orangeburg, SC is having a time..they are under a tornado warning..I finally hear the thunder at my house now

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
262. Patrap
10:39 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
What Happens when a Typhoon skirts along Fukushima Prefecture's coastline over the Reactors and we have a radioactive infused tropical Cyclone paralleling the Japanese Mainland ?

Godzilla would be heading South.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
261. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:34 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
92L is officially dead.
01E, Should make it to Aletta before dissipating. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bud should be forming later this weekend and into next week.

And it has good potential to become a hurricane according to the ECMWF.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
260. HurricaneDean07
10:31 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
92L is officially dead.
01E, Should make it to Aletta before dissipating. Nothing more, nothing less.
Bud should be forming later this weekend and into next week.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
259. PedleyCA
10:27 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
Half-way to looping a second loop, and back at the position it held 2days8hours ago
92L's minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at 35knots(40mph)65k/h
Travel speed has increased from 5.2knots(6mph)9.7k/h to 7.3knots(8.5mph)13.7k/h
And for those who like to keep track of 92L's meanderings

The northernmost unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The unlabeled dot at which 3 line-segments meet is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 201miles(323kilometres)

Copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w, 34.0n33.9w-33.3n33.6w, 33.3n33.6w-32.9n33.2w, 32.9n33.2w-32.6n32.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.


Is 92L still rotating around his imaginary friend?
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5952
258. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:26 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
We're already at 0 °C guys. An El Niño by the peak of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is pretty much inevitable now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
257. PlazaRed
10:25 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Physicist: Unit 2 completely liquified, 100% liquification of uranium core — “We’ve never seen this before in the history of nuclear power” (VIDEO)

Somebody in some sort of position of influance has got to start listening to these types of things soon, or is that why the US deligation went there a couiple of weeks ago? To get the truth, before it leaks out in liquid form, or much more critical boils off into the atmostshere as a bretheable manifestation?
Oh by the way 40/c in ther Canarie Islands today again, 2 Brits dead from heat stroke so far acording to the local news. highest temp since about 1946 and possibly ever recorded they say.
A mere 38/c in Seville today but about the level of Maximum past records for May.
Que Sera Sera!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2093
256. redwagon
10:19 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track



So 1-E stalls in three days, even better. With luck, this will be one weather-making machine for TX -> FL for a good week or ten days.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3276
255. KoritheMan
10:16 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
sorry guys im not buying the el nino development until september. yes the t depth anomalies show warm water arriving to the surface but we still have a cold pdo. when the pdo is cold el nino can not form. thats not to say over the summer the pdo weakens and el nino does develop. also it takes about a month for atmospheric conditions of a certain enso phase to take effect. so so when we were neutral in march it took up to may for the atmosphere to reflect neutral conditions. if an el nino forms past august then i dont see why this atlantic hurricane season wont be slighltly above average in terms of activity. i dont buy the 10 storms 5 hurricanes and 2 major. that sounds like a guranteed moderate el nino for sure. My numbers are 13-14 storms 7-8 hurricanes 3-4 major. you may disagree or agree with me but I do see el nino developing but not as soon as some people see it forming.


I doubt El Nino's coming so early, either. However, we should be in a warm biased neutral, which will increase the net westerly shear over the basin.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 587 Comments: 20877
254. wunderweatherman123
10:14 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
sorry guys im not buying the el nino development until september. yes the t depth anomalies show warm water arriving to the surface but we still have a cold pdo. when the pdo is cold el nino can not form. thats not to say over the summer the pdo weakens and el nino does develop. also it takes about a month for atmospheric conditions of a certain enso phase to take effect. so so when we were neutral in march it took up to may for the atmosphere to reflect neutral conditions. if an el nino forms past august then i dont see why this atlantic hurricane season wont be slighltly above average in terms of activity. i dont buy the 10 storms 5 hurricanes and 2 major. that sounds like a guranteed moderate el nino for sure. My numbers are 13-14 storms 7-8 hurricanes 3-4 major. you may disagree or agree with me but I do see el nino developing but not as soon as some people see it forming.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1725
253. Patrap
10:08 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:


NO... v_v


mmmm, k

Just checkin.


: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
252. Patrap
10:08 PM GMT on May 14, 2012
Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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