Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

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The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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I'm so proud, look what I made.

Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Levi do you think if this forms it will be more likely to track into the Gulf or cross Cuba and go east of Florida? The GFS has been back and forth with that a lot.


If it develops on the GFS timetable probably east of Florida is more likely, but let's see if we even get anything to come out of the Caribbean.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Nice to see you haha...Between Frances and Jeanne, about 3 weeks without electricity and work.


Three weeks without work? I'll take it.
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US Army General Warns of Impending Fukushima Doom

17 Hrs ago

A Natural Solutions Foundation Media Release: Maj. Gen. Albert N. Stubblebine III (US Army Ret.)'s Estimate of Situation about Fukushima, Japan, focusing on the immediate threat to the Northern Hemisphere emanating from the highly radioactive ruins of the 5 Fukushima nuclear reactors.

The Woodlands, Texas (PRWEB) May 14, 2012
Maj. Gen. Albert N. Stubblebine III (US Army Ret.), President of the Natural Solutions Foundation, an international NGO (non-governmental organization), released a 27 minute public service Estimate of Situation about Fukushima, Japan focusing on the immediate threat to the Northern Hemisphere emanating from the highly radioactive ruins of the 5 Fukushima nuclear reactors. The video is available without charge at http://www.GeneralBert.com.
Gen. Stubblebine’s prognosis is dire: “When the highly radioactive Spent Fuel Rods are exposed to air, there will be massive explosions releasing many times the amount or radiation released thus far. Bizarrely, they are stored three stories above ground in open concrete storage pools. Whether through evaporation of the water in the pools, or due to the inevitable further collapse of the structure, there is a severe risk. United States public health authorities agree that tens of thousands of North Americans have already died from the Fukushima calamity. When the final cataclysm occurs, sooner rather than later, the whole Northern Hemisphere is at risk of becoming largely uninhabitable.”
General Stubblebine details in his riveting video the amounts of radioactive materials that will be propelled across the Pacific and across the United States if the Fukushima reactor structures (especially Spent Fuel Pool Number 4) collapse. With over 15,000 ‘spent fuel rods’ on the site, the Fukushima reactors have accumulated one of the largest stockpiles of these dangerous, intensely radioactive materials on the planet. No remediation work is being done at the site; there is no official remedial planning or disaster preparation. No private remediation, or public discussion of the need for it, is permitted by the Government of Japan under its new suppression of nuclear discussion laws.
The Natural Solutions Foundation joins seventy Japanese NGOs(1) in calling upon the Secretary General of the United Nations and Prime Minister of Japan last month to coordinate emergency action to shore-up critical structures now at imminent risk of collapse. It has been variously estimated(2), that a relatively mild earthquake (i.e., 5.0 or greater on the Richter Scale) will collapse the previously damaged Spent Fuel Rod holding tank of Unit No. 4, containing 85 times the amount of radioactive Cesium137 contained in Chernobyl's now-entombed reactor. An estimated 1Million Europeans are believed to have died as a direct result of that radiation emission following the nuclear explosion of Chernobyl.
The US Government's statistics document an excess death rate of 20,000 US residents, mostly healthy infants, in the first 9 months following the multiple nuclear events at Fukushima. .

As a humanitarian, strategist, intelligence analyst, father and grandfather, General Bert understands that doing nothing is, quite simply, not an option.
Following his incisive Estimate of Situation, General Bert’s free public service video outlines four simple steps you can take to protect yourself and your family.
Please visit http://www.GeneralBert.com to access this urgent warning and subsequent updates without cost. And please share this link with all your circles of influence.
The Trustees of the Natural Solutions Foundation, the largest health freedom organization in the world, urge your participation in disseminating this message since the mainstream media has remained curiously silent in the United States on this massive increase in radiation. The lack of information is, however, a matter of State policy in Japan where it is now a felony offense to discuss negative aspects of either nuclear power or the Fukushima situation in particular.
# # #

1. http://www.naturalnews.com/035788_Fukushima_United _Nations_radiation.html

2. http://www.naturalnews.com/035789_Fukushima_Cesium -137_Plume-Gate.html
Ralph Fucetola, JD
Natural Solutions Foundation
(973) 300-4594
Email Information
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129913
Quoting hahaguy:


So much fun lol.


Nice to see you haha...Between Frances and Jeanne, about 3 weeks without electricity and work.
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Quoting Levi32:
The sun sets on an active eastern Pacific, and yes I know TD 01E is now TS Aletta. The GFS starts brewing low pressure in the western Caribbean in a few days from the old frontal boundary reaching down towards central America interacting with a monsoonal low to the east of Aletta. We shall see if it is just GFS hype.


Levi do you think if this forms it will be more likely to track into the Gulf or cross Cuba and go east of Florida? The GFS has been back and forth with that a lot.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
If Tampa gets a direct hit this year... if ... I'm sure it will be during the last week of August (RNC Convention).

I've already made evacuation plans. Las Vegas.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi, do you think development in the EPAC is more likely than in the Western Caribbean as Euro,GFS,NOGAPS are progging?


At this time of year development is always more likely in the eastern Pacific. It has already happened. The uptick in convective activity that spawned Aletta is from the same MJO pulse that could light the Caribbean at some point during the next 6-12 days.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This was fun...





So much fun lol.
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Quoting Levi32:
The sun sets on an active eastern Pacific, and yes I know TD 01E is now TS Aletta. The GFS starts brewing low pressure in the western Caribbean in a few days from the old frontal boundary reaching down towards central America interacting with a monsoonal low to the east of Aletta. We shall see if it is just GFS hype.



Hi Levi. Do you think development in the EPAC is more likely than in the Western Caribbean as Euro,GFS,NOGAPS are progging?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
Quoting bappit:
What would be a good source of information on Fukushima?






Also, a good link to filter info. is

Link

Check out the nuclear e-book there.... Don't believe the info. until you do research on it....

But many questions arise.... If the US nuclear experts and Gov. knew the effects of nuclear fallout, Then why most of the nuclear testing was performed in the Central West area, exposing most of the US population to fallout being a fact that the Jet stream in the US runs W to East?...

Are we aware that a dust storm or a forest fire can expose today complete towns and cities to radiation from those testing cementeries? There is data there proving it....

Once again, do research.... and get to your own conclusions....
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Since the severe weather season has been rather quiet, here is an incredible documentary called Twister: Fury of the Plains. Has some old, yet incredible tornado footage.

Part 1:

Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Quoting Jedkins01:




And that was so long ago that if you were born that year you are likely not even alive any more, major hurricanes are once in a life time events as best on average for the Tampa Bay area. After living here long enough I've learned you should always be prepared for hurricane season, but never get stressed because you will probably see snow and many winter freezes in the 20's before you see a direct hit from a hurricane here, lol...



yep
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Only difference is that you cannot sort that file. :)


What do you mean "sort" it?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Only difference is that you cannot sort that file. :)


The important thing is both files update at the same time.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is official--Tropical Storm Aletta has formed in the East Pacific.

EP, 01, 2012051500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TS


However, according to the best track, it became named on May 15th UTC, which means it was not a pre-season EPAC named cyclone.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24580



Hurricane Ivan Damage




Hurricane Preparation 2012

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129913
The sun sets on an active eastern Pacific, and yes I know TD 01E is now TS Aletta. The GFS starts brewing low pressure in the western Caribbean in a few days from the old frontal boundary reaching down towards central America interacting with a monsoonal low to the east of Aletta. We shall see if it is just GFS hype.

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Quoting Ameister12:
I can't help but remember how crazy the blog was when Claudette in 2009 formed. Everybody was saying that she would pull a Humberto and hit Florida as a category 1. Gotta love seeing the blog go into hyper mode. =)

I've said this before but just go back and look what happened when Don formed... The doom meter was through the roof
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
Quoting Grothar:


What flavor are you using this time?


Dulce Le Leche...I meant well...You Twit!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
13, I use this file.

Link

Only difference is that you cannot sort that file. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
13, I use this file.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
Quoting KoritheMan:


I remember how slow-moving Frances was. I hate forecasting slow-movers. Fay and Lee were terrible.

*prays he doesn't have to do that this year*


Jeanne was a pain in the arse also. Really odd the strange the loop 'de loop she did and hit in almost the same location.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I have my Glad bags ready to bring home ice to my friends and neighbors.


What flavor are you using this time?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This was fun...





I remember how slow-moving Frances was. I hate forecasting slow-movers. Fay and Lee were terrible.

*prays he doesn't have to do that this year*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
I can't help but remember how crazy the blog was when Claudette in 2009 formed. Everybody was saying that she would pull a Humberto and hit Florida as a category 1. Gotta love seeing the blog go into hyper mode. =)


Ah, the usefulness of hindsight. Had those people just looked, they would've seen that such a thing was clearly impossible. Look, the cloud pattern resembled westerly shear.
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I have my Glad bags ready to bring home ice to my friends and neighbors.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
This was fun...



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/graphics/AT1 1/55.AL1104W.GIF


I can't believe you posted, that. I was just posting this.

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Quoting yqt1001:


Sounds like this blog alright.

Yep. Somethings may never change.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
Quoting Ameister12:
I can't help but remember how crazy the blog was when Claudette in 2009 formed. Everybody was saying that she would pull a Humberto and hit Florida as a category 1. Gotta love seeing the blog go into hyper mode. =)


Sounds like this blog alright.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This was fun...



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't help but remember how crazy the blog was when Claudette in 2009 formed. Everybody was saying that she would pull a Humberto and hit Florida as a category 1. Gotta love seeing the blog go into hyper mode. =)
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5086
370. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I use this one.
Ahh yes thats the one I was looking for! Thanks again
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Quoting j2008:
Hey TA13, I lost that link earlyer in the winter, so if you would mind shareing it, it would be much appriciated. Thanks

I use this one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting bappit:
What would be a good source of information on Fukushima? I ran across some reputable looking forums early on in the disaster, but I've not kept up with them and do not have the links myself. Does someone know?



For me one of the most respetable and serious experts is Arnie Gundersen and his Wife....

You can get serious info. in fairewinds.org

Arnie took samples from Fukushima more than one month ago and after being analyzed in the US, they were declared nuclear waste..... So when you walk through Tokyo you are exposed to nuclear waste

The other link where you can "filter" serious Fukushima info. is enenews.com

You have to do your homework to verify the info. there.... But the iniciative from Sen. Wyden calling the attention to global action over Fukushima was seriously posted in enenews more than two weeks ago...

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EP012012

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129913
Quoting Jedkins01:




And that was so long ago that if you were born that year you are likely not even alive any more, major hurricanes are once in a life time events as best on average for the Tampa Bay area. After living here long enough I've learned you should always be prepared for hurricane season, but never get stressed because you will probably see snow and many winter freezes in the 20's before you see a direct hit from a hurricane here, lol...
yeah its almost a century ago, weather guys say, we in tampa bay are positioned almost prefectly so hurricanes rarely hit right on top of us,but then..it only takes one huh..been here since 85 and only saw a tropical storm that came close over us..matter of fact that day i was driving back from orlando, man you really get a Driving road test, driving thru a tropical storm, hard to even stay on the road..but..i made it.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42279
365. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is official--Tropical Storm Aletta has formed in the East Pacific.

EP, 01, 2012051500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TS
Hey TA13, I lost that link earlyer in the winter, so if you would mind shareing it, it would be much appriciated. Thanks
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If you read your own blog, you would know that I read it! And I agree, the Caymans are safe. They should be very happy.


Aw, shucks!
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Published on May 14, 2012 by yesterday2221

A timelapse of Planet Earth from the Elektro-L satellite. The geostationary satellite orbits 40000km above the Earth. It creates a 121 megapixel image every 30 minutes with four visible and infrared light wavelengths. I changed the orange infrared layer to green for this movie.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129913
Tropical Storm Aletta:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing storm it was..here is what it did close to me in clearwater.......In an interesting episode of hurricane in the year 1921, "The hurricane of '21 struck Clearwater. This was not at all a major hurricane in the history of Florida. However, this hurricane, which was blowing at a speed of 100 to 110 miles per hour with 10-foot tides, ripped Clearwater creating a channel called Hurricane Pass. This most interesting Hurricane Pass nearly cuts Clearwater Island into half at a very narrow spot in the Island to the north of Mandalay shores. It is even more interesting to note that it was during this year that Clearwater came to limelight, when Florida received the title of a 'Sun Shine State'. The following years saw this metropolitan bustling with shoppers, cars, and increasing number of tourists, including more people thronging in to make this their preferred residence.


I was saying the tropical storm that followed that hurricane wasn't "disastrous" at all. That's pretty misleading. The previous hurricane was no doubt notable.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is official--Tropical Storm Aletta has formed in the East Pacific.

EP, 01, 2012051500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TS


Here we go with the first named storm of the EPAC.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14923
Tell you what -- I won't do 5-day track forecasts, but I will do 5-day intensity forecasts. Starting tomorrow!

Besides, it'll make forecast verification post-mortem a little easier.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


From the article:

"Washington, Oct. 25. – The tropical storm which swept the Florida coast with such disastrous effect yesterday was central about latitude 29 and longitude 75 degrees, the weather bureau announces, and was “moving slowly eastward.” This would put the storm about midway between the South Atlantic coast and Bermuda."



Wha?
amazing storm it was..here is what it did close to me in clearwater.......In an interesting episode of hurricane in the year 1921, "The hurricane of '21 struck Clearwater. This was not at all a major hurricane in the history of Florida. However, this hurricane, which was blowing at a speed of 100 to 110 miles per hour with 10-foot tides, ripped Clearwater creating a channel called Hurricane Pass. This most interesting Hurricane Pass nearly cuts Clearwater Island into half at a very narrow spot in the Island to the north of Mandalay shores. It is even more interesting to note that it was during this year that Clearwater came to limelight, when Florida received the title of a 'Sun Shine State'. The following years saw this metropolitan bustling with shoppers, cars, and increasing number of tourists, including more people thronging in to make this their preferred residence.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42279
Quoting charlottefl:
This is just speculation on my part, but I would think that even though a storm contained a higher dbz on radar, here in FL it may not necessarily mean a stronger storm (Severe wise anyways) I don't think there is as much of a contrast in temperature from the lower to the upper levels of the atmosphere here as opposed to states that aren't surrounded by warm moist bodies of water on basically all sides. So I would think that our storms could reach a higher intensity dbz wise, and not necessarily be severe. They usually contain a lot of lightning and a lot of rain, but I think circumstances have to be more primed than elsewhere in the country for severe weather to occur here. Not saying that it doesn't happen, I just think the potential leans us more toward exteme lightning/rain events as opposed to more extreme severe wx events.



I agree, to understand why that would be the case is because we often don't have nearly the dynamics needed for severe weather as many other regions experience, while the thunderstorm cells we get can be very impressive, they often don't have the dynamics needed for severe outbreaks. Generally speaking we get mostly pulse severe thunderstorms, that pop randomly on any given day and can't be predicted really.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8029
Quoting Jedkins01:




And that was so long ago that if you were born that year you are likely not even alive any more, major hurricanes are once in a life time events as best on average for the Tampa Bay area. After living here long enough I've learned you should always be prepared for hurricane season, but never get stressed because you will probably see snow and many winter freezes in the 20's before you see a direct hit from a hurricane here, lol...



Uh hummmm!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Garlic Jr. was terrible, I don't think his power level was even over 9000...


It was probably sub-1000, if a start of Z Goku and Piccolo could take him down.

I thought his minions were kind of cool, though.
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Quoting Grothar:


11 days. If you read my blog you would know what I think.:P

I am going to go out on a limb here and say maybe yes and maybe no. With this movement,it will most likely miss the Caymans though.


If you read your own blog, you would know that I read it! And I agree, the Caymans are safe. They should be very happy.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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