Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

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The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
545 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-161000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
545 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
501. MahFL
Quoting charlottefl:
This is just speculation on my part, but I would think that even though a storm contained a higher dbz on radar, here in FL it may not necessarily mean a stronger storm (Severe wise anyways) I don't think there is as much of a contrast in temperature from the lower to the upper levels of the atmosphere here as opposed to states that aren't surrounded by warm moist bodies of water on basically all sides. So I would think that our storms could reach a higher intensity dbz wise, and not necessarily be severe. They usually contain a lot of lightning and a lot of rain, but I think circumstances have to be more primed than elsewhere in the country for severe weather to occur here. Not saying that it doesn't happen, I just think the potential leans us more toward exteme lightning/rain events as opposed to more extreme severe wx events.


I have seen more hail in the UK, I've seen hail in FL two times in 13 years.
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500. MahFL
Quoting Jedkins01:
Its weird it does often seem the NWS in Ruskin is a little more hesitant to issue severe warnings, there is a cell in Polk County coming in near 70 DBZ that doesn't have a warning, but I saw a few warned cells in South Carolina and North Carolina earlier that had warnings with less than 60 DBZ... Go figure, maybe they like to wait and make sure its sustained for more than a couple frames first in that its better to ensure a storm could actually do damage before issuing a warning. I guess the conservative route is always better, makes people more likely to heed warnings.


Cooler air aloft may have made the Carolina storms more severe. Heavy thunderstorms occur regularly in FL and are not warned. eg, it's unusual to get hail in FL, but more so in NC.
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499. MahFL
I got 4.29 inches of much needed rain yestrday in NE FL.
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wish they could say if a major was going to make landfall this yr last big one has been awhile (sorry irene)
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497. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA (EP012012)
2:00 AM PDT May 15 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: ALETTA MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Aletta (1004 hPa) located at 10.8N 108.7W or 555 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 11.4N 112.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 11.9N 116.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 12.5N 119.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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The first link seems to have the most recent posts. One comment that seems appropriate for this blog:

"To the rest of people, probably most, it [a news release from TEPCO] just produced a vague message of some mildly good news from the plant, for a change. Soothe the many into passivity, let a few ill-informed destroy their own credibility with scare stories, get on with whatever you now have sanctity to be doing, and if you are called on the facts, 'you didn't mean it that way' Looked upon as a piece of technology propaganda, this was technically a masterpiece."

In a post by MadderDoc.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
so basically its gonna be a neutral season?
pretty much
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9564
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well they are saying neutral till about mid season then goes to el nino but looking that curent conditions and forecast I say Neutral for now then it goes to warm/en nino neutral by mid season but then turns back to cool/la nina neutral by end season
so basically its gonna be a neutral season?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
Hey everybody feels good to be back and with my degree too. I see the E. Pacific got started early. does anyone know what type of year this will be? neutral, el nino or la nina? and wassup kori

well they are saying neutral till about mid season then goes to el nino but looking that curent conditions and forecast I say Neutral for now then it goes to warm/en nino neutral by mid season but then turns back to cool/la nina neutral by end season
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9564
Quoting bappit:

Where is a good link where the "kill 2.89 billion people" claim Consolo makes would be discussed by knowledgeable people?



Thanks for those links...


We are just seeing for the moment the tip of the iceberg.... The nuclear industry has lots of power.... For the moment there are just a few standing and exposing the truth behind it... specially with Fukushima.

It is a fact that TepCo and the government has lied since the first day.

North Tokio is contaminated, that is a proven fact...
Unit no. 4 has enough nuclear material inside an open pool 100 feet over the ground inside a partially destroyed building.... that is also a fact...

In a matter of weeks, maybe a couple of months we will see more discussions related.. Hope doen't happens too late...
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Hey everybody feels good to be back and with my degree too. I see the E. Pacific got started early. does anyone know what type of year this will be? neutral, el nino or la nina? and wassup kori
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Fantastic. This looks good.

Daily updates on the situation

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Getting warmer. At least someone posted a link to a forum. Hmmmm, "what chemists do". I think you meant this.

Thanks! I think there are more forums like this, but this looks like a good one.
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Ah, yes, 92L..... yep he's dead aletta is the star now
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Quoting bappit:
Does anyone have a good link to a forum where this stuff is discussed by subject matter experts?


Yes :)

http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=480 200&page=827
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Quoting MTWX:


What about Dr. Jun Ro Fuse??

Watch the full video of his presentation in NYC last week. The numbers are staggering! Link

I don't see a good discussion on that site. Lots of concerned folks, but that's to be expected.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


haha yes! its Ironic Because I was born in the Arizona Desert, very close to Mexico actually :)

I moved the Florida when I was around 4 and I'm 21 now, so I might as well be a Florida native.

BTW, I don't know that much about the Climate in the Bahamas, what is it like?
Not that different from FL, except we don't get freezes. Temps tend to stay slightly cooler in summer and warmer in winter [small island effect] when compared to most of Florida. Think Keys wx and you may be pretty close.
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Quoting Patrap:
Like I said ..maybe read the Senators er, report "sport with a twist", LOL

You can find his website I presume.

I read the press release the senator issued. It really didn't say anything new. He could have issued the press release without going to Japan. It certainly doesn't make for the sensational story you quoted earlier.

"Sitting at the top of [Reactor 4], in a pool that is cracked, leaking and precarious even without an earthquake, are 1,565 fuel rods (give or take a few), some of them fresh fuel that was ready to go into the reactor on the morning of March 11 when the earthquake and tsunami hit, writes Consolo.
If they are MOX fuel, containing six percent plutonium, one fuel rod has the potential to kill 2.89 billion people."

Those are Christina Consolo's words. The article echoing them slid them in to a story purportedly about the senator's letter to the Japanese government. That's something I'd expect to see from WUWT.

Where is a good link where the "kill 2.89 billion people" claim Consolo makes would be discussed by knowledgeable people? For instance, how would the plutonium get from where it is to where the 2.89 billion people live? I don't know anyone on this blog able to comment on that.

The lack of good info from the Japanese government allows off-base stories like this to get repeated without anyone questioning them.
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Lucky basterd! LOL wait until it rains here and pours folks are going to be like turn it off because it will be too much. I'll let the El-Nino pattern take shape because it means a wetter pattern for FL. I believe in 2009 the last time we had an El-Nino it was wet across FL.



Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
In the Atlantic I would love to have a storm like Karen of 1989 I love that track.
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1974 was an EL Niño La Niña O neutral year?
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472 Tropicsweatherpr: The 3-man Soyuz Launch to the ISS was successful as the crew has entered Orbit on time. And one of the three is from PR, Joseph Acaba

So was he allowed to bring aboard a herd of coquis, or does Acaba hafta suffer in silence?
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(click to enlarge)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Guess we r both too used to living near the ocean...


haha yes! its Ironic Because I was born in the Arizona Desert, very close to Mexico actually :)

I moved the Florida when I was around 4 and I'm 21 now, so I might as well be a Florida native.

BTW, I don't know that much about the Climate in the Bahamas, what is it like?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It was probably sub-1000, if a start of Z Goku and Piccolo could take him down.

I thought his minions were kind of cool, though.


Yeah I guess the minions weren't so bad, I hate king Kai the most, he sounds like Congressman Barney Frank too, lol.
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Looks like 92L has ceased going for the second loop (previous map)
92L's minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars
But MaximumSustainedWinds have fallen from 35knots(40mph)65k/h to 30knots(35mph)56k/h
And travel speed has increased from 7.3knots(8.5mph)13.7k/h to 11.1knots(12.8mph)20.5k/h

ie At DiurnalMinimum, 92L was travelling so fast compared to it's maximum winds that it is unlikely to intensify, and more likely to blow itself out into a fully extratropical state... or to dissipate

The first 24hours of line-segments have been erased cuz otherwise the path is too snarled to explain,
but for those who still like to keep track of 92L's meanderings

The northernmost unconnected&unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The western endcap-dot of the connected line-segments is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 228miles(366kilometres)

Copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w, 34.0n33.9w-33.3n33.6w, 33.3n33.6w-32.9n33.2w, 32.9n33.2w-32.6n32.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
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Quoting Patrap:


The 3 man Soyuz Launch to the ISS was successful as the crew has entered Orbit on time.


And one of the three is from PR,Joseph Acaba.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
Quoting Thrawst:
As Baha just said... we have been getting absolutely destroyed by this storm. It's been sitting over the western part of New Providence for EVER, without dissipating -- something storms don't usually do here.

I'd say at my house we got between 2-3 inches of rain today. Lots more tomorrow.
Goodnight everybody!
It's drier where I am, generally speaking, and we didn't get as much this afternoon as the north coast did. But still a substantial amount. I guarantee standing water will remain tomorrow, and the first peek of sun will mean evaporation induced humidity.... though at this rate we may still have rain in the a.m.

I'm off as well... got a deadline on some work I need to get done and want to finish it before I get into bed.

I'll prolly check in on Aletta around 2 a.m. EDT.
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470. j2008
Cool we will see who is right, Im thinking 50 but 60 is pretty possible too just depending on how quick she intensifies.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Me too, I don't like that much dryness... I'm not saying I couldn't handle living there, I just definitely wouldn't choose to, lol.
Guess we r both too used to living near the ocean...
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It looks like its loosing the intensity of her convection.

Is that anything like "losing the integrity of her conviction"?
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As Baha just said... we have been getting absolutely destroyed by this storm. It's been sitting over the western part of New Providence for EVER, without dissipating -- something storms don't usually do here.

I'd say at my house we got between 2-3 inches of rain today. Lots more tomorrow.
Goodnight everybody!
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It's officially over for 92L.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205150300
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13299
464. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA (EP012012)
8:00 PM PDT May 14 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Aletta (1004 hPa) located at 10.5N 108.5W or 565 NM south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 11.1N 112.1W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 11.7N 116.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 12.0N 119.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
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Kodak facility in New York state housed underground nuclear reactor

Although the reactor was not a secret, it was unclear if Kodak informed police and fire departments of its existence. Local authorities were also unaware of its existence.

"This device presented no radiation risk to the public or employees. Radiation from the operation was not detectable outside of the facility.

Or so they say, I wunder what the R/Hour was on the inside.

Link
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Quoting j2008:
Aletta is here which means its time for the dreaded poll season. How strong will Aletta get?
A) TS 45 MPH
B) TS 55 MPH
C) TS 65 MPH
D) Hurricane >75 MPH


E. OVER 9000 MPH
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The dryness would be a bigger problem for me. I'd have no problem avoiding the other stuff. But I'm too used to the humidity to enjoy the desert for very long.


Me too, I don't like that much dryness... I'm not saying I couldn't handle living there, I just definitely wouldn't choose to, lol.
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Very strange that the weak vort max is continuing to produce showers and thunderstorms over land tonight even though moisture is even higher in the eastern gulf and its also more unstable there. Its quite weird, there must be absolutely no low level convergence, or even potential for low level convergence in the eastern gulf, because nothing will pop there whatsoever. Completely inconsistent with this type of pattern. Cooler air aloft is in place, high moisture, a jet stream, and bit of energy embedded, and still not s single thunderstorm has developed and moved onshore near the coastal areas.
Very inconsistent and atypical with what usually happens, then again, when do we ever get "normal" weather anymore...
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E 50mph but I am also shotting A 45mph
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458. j2008
Aletta is here which means its time for the dreaded poll season. How strong will Aletta get?
A) TS 45 MPH
B) TS 55 MPH
C) TS 65 MPH
D) Hurricane >75 MPH
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I agree probably east of Florida, since that would wrap dry air into Florida, which would be the same


Vegas is the last place you'd ever find me, yuck, clubs and casinos, what a waste of life and money...
The dryness would be a bigger problem for me. I'd have no problem avoiding the other stuff. But I'm too used to the humidity to enjoy the desert for very long.
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Two minute look-in:

The lightning has been ferocious the last hour or so, with loud thunder accompanying it. Looks like another 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain here as well.

Fun stuff, since the wind hasn't been too bad.


Quoting pottery:

Greetings.
I'm looking forward to a quiet one....
One lives in hopes....

Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Quick Question: What is the Highest Landfall Pattern (el nino, la nina, neutral) for the Carribean and United States?

Several good studies about this are on the internet. [I.E. u can Google.] What exactly they say, can't recall right now. But IIRC, it's nuetral, la nina, el nino.

I definitely stand to be corrected on this one.

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455. etxwx
From PRI's The World:
Climate Change Threatens to Transform Mongolia

Excerpt: More Extreme Weather Puts Livestock at Risk

Hurelchuluun and Bayambaa tell him that the weather has gotten much worse in recent years, especially with unusual sudden cold and hot spells.

“Sudden cold is causing the biggest problem,” Bayambaa says. “Extreme weather… is causing the death of animals.”

The couple also complains of changing rainfall patterns. Goulden says he hears this often—that instead of gentle, light rains that might last for two or three days, the region these days mostly gets short downpours. He says locals call these “rains that don’t wet,” but that instead run off into creeks, leaving behind dry soil and poor grass.

The herders say this is a huge problem. “If the grass is not growing well,” Hurelchuluun asks, “then what the animals will eat? If the animals die, what’s the future for us?”

It’s a common lament, Goulden says. He says herders also complain that it’s gotten harder to predict the weather. They used to be able to forecast and prepare for conditions by watching things like how smoke moved away from stoves pipes, what field mice stored away in autumn, or whether ibex moved to summits or valleys in winter.

But Goulden says these omens don’t work anymore. “The weather has become much more unpredictable,” he says, “so it’s much more difficult for them to anticipate what the next winter might be”.

Complete story here:
Link
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Pretty cool ULL in the Central Atlantic on the Water Vapor.
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Quoting Levi32:


If it develops on the GFS timetable probably east of Florida is more likely, but let's see if we even get anything to come out of the Caribbean.



I agree probably east of Florida, since that would wrap dry air into Florida, which would be the same
Quoting trey33:
If Tampa gets a direct hit this year... if ... I'm sure it will be during the last week of August (RNC Convention).

I've already made evacuation plans. Las Vegas.



Vegas is the last place you'd ever find me, yuck, clubs and casinos, what a waste of life and money...
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Quoting Grothar:



Uh hummmm!



lol :)


But keep in mind it excludes you because you haven't lived in the Tampa Bay area, or have you???
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.