Azores storm 92L unlikely to develop; East Pacific hurricane season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:24 PM GMT on May 14, 2012

Share this Blog
25
+

The hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics that formed Saturday over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 450 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands (Invest 92L), has weakened considerably, and is unlikely to become Subtropical Storm Alberto. Wind shear has increased to a very high 25 - 40 knots over 92L today, causing a marked deterioration of the heavy thunderstorm activity. Also not helping is the fact 92L is over cold ocean waters of 68°F (20°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. Satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 35 mph at 7:45 am EDT Monday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 40 mph at 8 am EDT Monday, down 10 mph from Saturday's peak. Wind shear is expected to remain very high and water temperatures will cool as 92L moves northeast towards the Azores Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the chances of the storm developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone are near zero percent.


Figure 1. True color satellite photo of Invest 92L taken at 8:35 am EDT Monday May 14, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins
The first tropical depression of the 2012 hurricane season has formed this morning in the Eastern Pacific, and it comes one day before the official May 15 start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Tropical Depression One-E is located about 645 mi south of Manzanillo Mexico, and is headed west, away from any land areas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, ocean temperatures are a warm 29°C, and TD One-E has a good chance of becoming the season's first tropical storm by Tuesday. It is unusual to get a tropical storm forming this early in the year in the Eastern Pacific; since record keeping began in 1949, there have only been two that have formed by May 15--Hurricane Alma of 1990, and an unnamed 1996 storm. TD One-E will not live for long--the storm is headed towards a region with high wind shear and cooler waters that should be able to destroy it late this week.

Only weak potential for an Atlantic system developing over the next week
The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend, though it is possible we might see something develop along an old cold frontal boundary between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If such a storm did develop, it would likely move northeast out to sea.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 52 - 2

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

This was a "Blow Up" moment...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11322
While the talk is of the EPAC--and rightly so--there's a little weather weirdness to talk about in Europe: Spain and Portugal (and Morocco a bit farther south) are seeing some incredibly hot weather today, with many readings of 100 degrees and higher breaking all-time high temperature records for the month of May. Meanwhile, not so far to the east, Sarajevo and surrounding areas are experiencing a heavy snow today, a May storm all the more freakish after the area saw record high temperatures this past weekend into the 90s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClevelandBob:
The blog's about to blow up!


"Blow up" over a fish depression in the Pacific Ocean? Don't see that happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
May 13, 2011

May 13, 2012

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
25 ClevelandBob: The blog's about to blow up!

TropicalDepressionOneEast is in the Pacific. Around here, gotta have TD1E predicted to make hurricane status with a prediction cone containing the possibility of landfall before the excitement becomes as palpable as it would be for a decent Atlantic blob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:

I'm just happy we have a TD that's no treat to land to watch


Those are my favorite kind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Trust the tropics to spring into life while I'm revising for my first year Physics BSc exams....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
DC3: Chemistry of Thunderstorms
enlarge


ScienceDaily (May 9, 2012) — NASA researchers are about to fly off on a campaign that will take them into the heart of thunderstorm country.

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign will use an airport in Salina, Kan., as a base to explore the impact of large thunderstorms on the concentration of ozone and other substances in the upper troposphere. The campaign is being led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, and is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA.

"Thunderstorms provide a mechanism for rapid lifting of air from the surface to higher altitudes in a matter of minutes to hours," said James Crawford of NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va., and a member of the mission's scientific steering committee.

"This allows molecules that are short-lived and more abundant near the surface to be transported to the upper troposphere in amounts that could not happen under normal atmospheric conditions," he said.

Complex process

Additional chemical impacts come from the production of nitrogen oxides by lightning, but the details of these processes are not well understood.

"All of this together has an influence on ozone in the coldest part of the atmosphere where it exerts the largest influence on climate," Crawford said. "Of the chemicals we'll be studying, nitrogen oxides in particular are key to the creation of ozone and are produced both naturally by lightning and by human activity through the burning of fossil fuels."

The campaign is scheduled to run from May 15 to June 30. NASA partners include Langley, Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif. and Dryden Flight Research Center in Edwards, Calif.

The troposphere is the lowest part of the atmosphere, extending from the ground up to an average depth of 11 miles in the middle latitudes. It contains about 80 percent of the atmosphere's mass and 99 percent of its water vapor. This region is important because water vapor, ozone, cirrus clouds and particles such as dust contribute to the amount of radiation -- heat -- allowed in and out of the atmosphere, and have a direct impact on the climate system.

"We tend to associate thunderstorms with heavy rain and lightning, but they also shake things up at the top of cloud level," said NCAR scientist Chris Cantrell, a DC3 principal investigator. "Their impacts high in the atmosphere have effects on climate that last long after the storm dissipates."

Flights cover several states

During the mission, a NASA DC-8 carrying more than 20 instruments measuring scores of substances will make far-reaching flights out of Salina in coordination with a network of ground-based radar, lightning antenna stations and instrumentation in Colorado, Oklahoma and Alabama. The aircraft's home is Dryden Flight Research Center.

The DC-8 is flying in tandem with the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream-V, a higher-flying aircraft able to more consistently reach the altitudes where outflow from deep convection deposits material.

The DC-8 will sample outflow when possible, but more importantly will focus on lower altitude inflow conditions, and on pre- and post-storm changes in how material is distributed with altitude. Its range will also enable it to sample outflow downwind of storms to examine chemical changes induced by the lifted material.

The principal investigators are from NCAR, Pennsylvania State University and Colorado State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and numerous university and partners and international collaborators. German scientists will bring yet a third plane, a Dassault Falcon.

The DC3 mission is related to another airborne campaign examining the role of deep convection in transporting material from the surface to the upper atmosphere. The DC-8 and Gulfstream-V will both participate in the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS) mission that will take place in August and September this year from a base in Thailand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think it stands a decent shot this afternoon.
Yeah, it's looking like it got a chance at it this afternoon. At least it's not threatening land so it should be fun to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:


Just got up. See we have a TD South of me. Was just trying to look at the Tropical Weather map but they broke it. They must be adding TD1 in there and have it offline. 63.0 here right now. No Marine Layer today and it should get mid 80's+. How about you? Is working now....


I'm just happy we have a TD that's no treat to land to watch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
TD One in East Pacific is lookin' impressive for May storm. Anyone think it'll make it to Tropical Storm Aletta?

I think it stands a decent shot this afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32348
Haven't had any measurable precipitation this month yet here, just a  trace.  Now the heat is on, and with it so is the dry air.  
Mon. Hi: 78 Lo: 50Tue.  Hi: 82 Lo: 57Wed. Hi: 81 Lo: 53Thu. Hi: 80 Lo: 61Fri. Hi: 84 Lo: 63Sat. Hi: 85 Lo: 64Sun. Hi: 86 Lo: 

It's good to see Texas get out of the drought pattern that they endured over the last 2 years.  It's starting to look as if we are going to have problems in the Midwest this summer.  



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bluestorm5:
TD One in East Pacific is lookin' impressive for May storm. Anyone think it'll make it to Tropical Storm Aletta?


Probably will! has 24 hours to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
And the blog goes BOOM!



01E doesn't look that good, but I guess it meets the requirements that the NHC has. Appearance does not a depression make.
ehh, the blog isn't going that fast IMO. You should've seen the blog during Irene... it was going so fast I had to click on F5 button once every 15 second just to keep up with the posts. And I think TD One is an okay looking depression, but it's not very promising to be a strong tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh how I missed hurricane season..
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32348
North Atlantic Storm Patterns Throw Light On England's 1987 Gale

ScienceDaily (May 10, 2012) — The cyclone that brought about the devastating winds that battered the UK in the great storm of October 1987 was exceptional in both its strength and path across the south of the country. This is the finding of a new study which has analysed the places where sting jets -- an area that develops in some cyclones and causes strong surface winds -- appear in the North Atlantic and how often they do so.

Presenting their results on 11 May, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters, researchers from the University of Reading and Monash University, Australia, studied the hundred most intense storms to have occurred across the North Atlantic in the past twenty years.

Of the 100 storms studied, they found that around 30 per cent of the storms had the potential to produce sting jets but these seemed to originate in relatively warmer, more southerly latitudes, out at sea.

A sting jet originates in a cyclone at an altitude of five kilometres within layers of moist ascending air. As the jet of air descends, it passes through clouds of ice crystals that cool it down, increasing its density and causing it to accelerate to speeds of up to 100 mph.

These strong winds appear in regions of a cyclone where they would not usually occur according to previous models.

"This descending jet is called a sting jet due to its location at the tip of the cloud head that wraps around the storm centre. This cloud resembles a scorpion's tail because of its hooked shape and is therefore described as the sting at the end of the scorpion's tail," said lead author of the study Dr Oscar Martínez-Alvarado.

The research shows that sting jets are a common feature of the most intense North Atlantic storms and that the potential impact of these storms crossing heavily populated areas should be considered by the insurance industry, policy makers and engineers who rely on these types of scientific advances to assess risk.

The time period analysed in this study was between 1989 and 2009; however, the researchers have highlighted two recent storms that struck Scotland in December last year and January this year, which both showed signs of a characteristic sting jet and produced winds of over 100 mph, leaving thousands of people without power.

"There is no evidence to suggest that sting jet storms are becoming more frequent. It really remains a question of chance.

"Using a technique similar to the one we used here, it would be possible to see signs of the potential for sting jets some six hours in advance. However, their time and length scales are so small that forecasting their actual occurrence remains a very difficult task," continued Dr Martínez-Alvarado.

Great storm of October 1987

· Occurred on the night of 15-16 October 1987

· Worst storm to hit England since great storm of 1703

· Storm was responsible for the death of at least 22 people in England and France

· Around 15 million trees were blown down during the storm

· The strongest winds recorded on UK land were 115 mph (100 knots) at Shoreham on the Sussex coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And the blog goes BOOM!



01E doesn't look that good, but I guess it meets the requirements that the NHC has. Appearance does not a depression make.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting nigel20:

Good morning pedley...what's up?


Just got up. See we have a TD South of me. Was just trying to look at the Tropical Weather map but they broke it. They must be adding TD1 in there and have it offline. 63.0 here right now. No Marine Layer today and it should get mid 80's+. How about you? Is working now....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH MORE
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS LESS
INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION BEING STEERED ON A WESTWARD COURSE AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTER WEAKENING...THE
SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 9.8N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 10.2N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 10.6N 109.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 10.8N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 11.1N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 11.8N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 12.2N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11322
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15746

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141450
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STREGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD One in East Pacific is lookin' impressive for May storm. Anyone think it'll make it to Tropical Storm Aletta?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Wind Probs Archive
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------



000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141450
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2012 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON FORMS AHEAD OF THE OFFICIAL SEASON START DATE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 105.9W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STREGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11322
TD1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The blog's about to blow up!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PedleyCA:


WHOO HOO

Good Morning All,

Good morning pedley...what's up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep012012.ren 14-May-2012 14:17 2.3K


We have T.D. One in the EPac at 11AM. But will it make it to Aletta?
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters although i have to disagree that the models have backed off the Caribbean system...they have not.

Everybody say hello to Tropical Depression One in the East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32348
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep012012.ren 14-May-2012 14:17 2.3K


WHOO HOO

Good Morning All,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep012012.ren 14-May-2012 14:17 2.3K


Does that mean 01E at 11 AM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dr. Masters...good morning all
May 14, 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aspectre:
9 txjac: aspectre ...you are definetely NOT an idiot!

shhh... Don' wanna go spreadin' rumors like that around. I'm workin' on makin' official village idiot.

I think we have plenty of village idiots here - many of them are just banned, and working on new handles.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5887
invest_RENUMBER_ep902012_ep012012.ren 14-May-2012 14:17 2.3K
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

Link

Keep an eye on 12N/78W

yep I was just about to say that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting aspectre:
1014 Silencedogood7: ...we have a vacation booked for Key West starting next weekend for our daughters senior trip (May 20th thru the 25th). Should I go ahead and change my reservations for the following week? Because by what I see and am reading I think I really should!

Reason ya haven't got answers so far is cuz reading charts showing over 5days into the future is closer to reading tea leaves than forecasting. But since I'm the village idiot...
...talk is that the bothersome closed-low will be forming near the Yucatan around the 20th and formed around the 23rd. So figuring storm travel time from the Yucatan to the Keys, changing reservations is as likely to put you into the midst of a TropicalCyclone as not.
Personally I'd rather have the worst weather at the end of a week's vacation than at the beginning. Better "Thank goodness we're leaving." after having a nice few days than arriving for "Is it gonna be like this for the rest of the entire trip?"
And there's the possibility that it wouldn't head to the Keys even if a TropicalCyclone were to form.

But as I said, and meant, I'm the village idiot. There's gotta be folks more qualified to give you advice.
Edited in... And I was correct about folks more qualified...
Dr.JeffMasters: The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend...

Well said.

Also, it should be pointed out that the models are -hinting- at an -area- of -slightly- low pressure. While many of the models are showing the -possibility-, they aren't consistent on it, and that is key. If the models were showing the same result every run for 3 days... yes, there is a better chance. But they aren't. They are all over the place. One run, it will show a storm, the next run... nothing. If a model isn't consistent, it means it isn't sure.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5887
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11322
9 txjac: aspectre ...you are definitely NOT an idiot!

shhh... Don' wanna go spreadin' rumors like that around. I'm workin' on makin' official village idiot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the HPC has a Low sitting off the NC coast and a Tropical wave on the 7 day map..second map is current surface analysis



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15746
Quoting RitaEvac:
Low pressure trying to develop in the BOC, can see clearly on visible loops. Been watching this over the weekend. Everybody model dreaming bout a system in the Caribbean that doesn't exist and you got a area of disturbed weather in existence right in front of your eyes in the real world. If anything the feature in the BOC is probably the damn feature the models are picking up on.


Could well be. These monsoonal developments sure take their sweet time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Aspectre ...you are definetely NOT an idiot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Link

Keep an eye on 12N/78W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still appoaching half-way to looping a second loop...
92L's minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady at 35knots(40mph)(65k/h)
Travel speed has dropped from 7.5 to 5.2knots (6mph)(9.7k/h)
And for those who like to keep track of 92L's meanderings

The northernmost unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The unlabeled dot at the other end of the connected dots is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 205miles(329kilometres)

Copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w, 34.0n33.9w-33.3n33.6w, 33.3n33.6w-32.9n33.2w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1014 Silencedogood7: ...we have a vacation booked for Key West starting next weekend for our daughter's senior trip (May 20th thru the 25th). Should I go ahead and change my reservations for the following week? Because by what I see and am reading I think I really should!

Reason ya haven't got answers so far is cuz reading charts showing over 5days into the future is closer to reading tea leaves than forecasting. But since I'm the village idiot...
...talk is that the bothersome closed-low will be forming near the Yucatan around the 20th and formed around the 23rd. So figuring storm travel time from the Yucatan to the Keys, changing reservations is as likely to put you into the midst of a TropicalCyclone as not.
Personally I'd rather have the worst weather at the end of a week's vacation than at the beginning. Better "Thank goodness we're leaving." after having a nice few days than arriving for "Is it gonna be like this for the rest of the entire trip?"
And there's the possibility that it wouldn't head to the Keys even if a TropicalCyclone were to form.

But as I said, and meant, I'm the village idiot. There's gotta be folks more qualified to give you advice.
Edited in... And I was correct about folks more qualified...
Dr.JeffMasters: The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey doc models have not backed off of the caribbean system GFS still has it as well as it ensembles, nafes, and some of the other models have been going on and off like nogaps and cmc even the hwrf and gfdl has been hinting on somethin in the area


I agree even the Euro is showing an area of weak low pressure in the NW Caribbean.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Low pressure trying to develop in the BOC, can see clearly on visible loops. Been watching this over the weekend. Everybody model dreaming bout a system in the Caribbean that doesn't exist and you got a area of disturbed weather in existence right in front of your eyes in the real world. If anything the feature in the BOC is probably the damn feature the models are picking up on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
oh yeah and the noaa's FIM has it too
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
hey doc models have not backed off of the caribbean system GFS still has it as well as it ensembles, nafes, and some of the other models have been going on and off like nogaps and cmc even the hwrf and gfdl has been hinting on somethin in the area
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180

Viewing: 52 - 2

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
55 °F
Overcast