2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2012

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The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters

Royse City Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Royse City Tornado
Hail no (rjctx74)
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Hail no
()

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR
S. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


we will see ALETTA soon
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's firing a little more convection up after it had died a little this morning...



it was never dead nor ding wat is happening is a classic case of eastern pacific development notice the heavy convection and also see the rotation of the system imo this should be goin into 50 percent chance
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Quoting dr73wtx:


Looking good for development, Ted. Any chance this circumvents the globe and winds up impacting the panhandle of Florida?


I don't know, let's ask the magic 8 ball.



Oh no, it appears unlikely. Sorry.
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It's firing a little more convection up after it had died a little this morning...

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR
S. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


AWESOME!!!! already 40%
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.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD
. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR
S. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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40% hatched in the EPAC.
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448 JNCali: So what will the next 'Billion Dollar Weather Disaster' be??? and where do the insurance companies get all their money... I'm only paying a couple thousand a year??????

They bet the customer premiums on the stock&bond&futures markets against pension funds and individual investors.
Because "fiduciary responsibility" laws pret' much force pension funds to buy high and sell low, and individual investors play hunches far too often, insurance companies have fairly easy pickin's.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This looks like mid-July in the EPAC, not May 12th.


This EPAC Hurricane Season is going to be much more active than the last two.


Increases our chances of getting a Hermine-like TS (Sept '10)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Medium chance of 40%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, definitely wasn't expecting 92L today!

First of the Jose-like storms.
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Wow, definitely wasn't expecting 92L today!
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To me at the moment, 92L has a 30% chance of developing. What if the possible FL storm, 92L, and the possible Bermuda storm somebody mentioned forms before June? We would have to start a new blog.
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AL922012 - INVEST


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

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Good Morning folks, hopefully we will get an afternoon seabreeze shower, I hope.........................http://www.srh.noaa.g ov/images/fxc/tbw/graphicast/image1.gif
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36894
This looks like mid-July in the EPAC, not May 12th.


This EPAC Hurricane Season is going to be much more active than the last two.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Doesn't look too bad.



Marco sized though.

Interesting, it's defiantly getting sub-tropical.
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Doesn't look too bad.

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fresh satellite image of 92L
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the eastern pacific system is indeed organizing however the forecast track may be a track toward the cost possibly as a 60 mph storm one thing is interesting though last night someone posted a map which showed a strong anticyclone in the Caribbean i do believe the Caribbean system too could pan out
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Just as I forecasted, 92L has formed.
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531. RTSplayer: [inre comment]527: There may be other freaky effects going on for that map...

Yeah, but without a massive amount of computer firepower to process a LOT more data,
all I can do is make "spherical cow" estimates.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Tropical models go up to 36kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 121332
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1332 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120512 1200 120513 0000 120513 1200 120514 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 30.7W 32.9N 30.2W 33.9N 30.2W 34.8N 30.5W
BAMD 32.1N 30.7W 34.7N 29.4W 36.3N 30.1W 37.0N 31.2W
BAMM 32.1N 30.7W 33.9N 29.7W 35.4N 30.2W 36.2N 31.1W
LBAR 32.1N 30.7W 34.1N 28.3W 37.0N 26.6W 39.2N 25.6W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200 120517 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.1N 31.1W 34.7N 31.8W 34.3N 30.1W 34.5N 26.0W
BAMD 36.8N 32.4W 36.3N 30.9W 39.4N 25.8W 41.1N 21.4W
BAMM 36.2N 32.1W 35.5N 32.5W 36.6N 28.8W 38.0N 24.1W
LBAR 40.9N 24.6W 42.2N 28.5W 40.3N 29.8W 39.3N 21.7W
SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 32.6N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 175DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 31.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205121321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0






GFS current model forecast is for it to become some sort of hybridized low and move up towards Europe.

Wonder if it will be named?

Water between that region and Spain is 1 to 2C above normal.
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i personally see a system forming near Bermuda
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205121321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0






Well, that was unexpected. Zero chance of development of course.
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Morning everyone. We had 1.76" of rain here last night. Kinda surprised me, but the strong easterly flow pinned all the storms up against this coast. We needed it. It also hit 94 degrees here yesterday.
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We have invest 92L in the Atlantic for the big low near the Azores.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205121321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012051212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012051212, , BEST, 0, 321N, 307W, 30, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0




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I think this "Storm" that the GFS has been persistently showing has a decent chance of actually forming.The model has not dropped development which is kind off unusual for this time of year.As its been stated even though the ECWMF is not showing any real development it is showing lowering pressures which leads to more convection building.And hell the GFS last year out performed the ECWMF on some storms last year....
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527:

There may be other freaky effects going on for that map.

If all the ice melted from Antarctica and Greenland, then they would have isostatic rebound and rise up out of the oceans, this would displace more water as their continental shelf rose above sea level, and tilted the ocean floors out away from themselves. Reasoning here is the mass of the ice on land is much more than the mass of the water on their coasts, so when the ice melts, they will rise and the water will run back off into the oceans.

The other continents, as they are inundated, would be pushed downwards by the invading mass, allowing the water to intrude farther and farther inland, within some limitations.

This should only account for probably just a few more meters at most, not 30 or 40 meters.

Though parts of Antarctica and Greenland would eventually experience uplifts equal to potentially scores or even hundreds of meters.
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Poor Florida...it looks to be the sacrifice in this situation...I hope we get left over rain though from the system..
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We now have two major models support tropical development in the Caribbean, the GFS and the CMC. I will not be sold on the potential for development until the ECMWF gets fully onboard, but it has been hinting at lower pressures in the Western Caribbean in the next 10 days or so. As we get closer in the timeline to the potential genesis of this system of course, things will change and we will get a much clearer idea of the situation. Either way, I doubt it would be a major system, nothing above 60 mph. Strongest May storm we've seen in a long time for sure, but probably not a hurricane.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
120 LargoFl: gee What would the world look like...IF... [FloodedEarth map]
455 aspectre: Near as I can tell, that map shows a "GlobalFlooding" of at least 110metres above presentday sea-level in all areas...
Which is nearly 40metres above that which would occur with a total meltdown of all ice sheets and glaciers -- 72metres would be the highest reasonable estimate -- and at least 30metres above even if one includes extra sea-height along specific coastlines in the NorthernHemisphere due to the change in the gravitational equipotential across Earth's surface.
There ain't no way India would be split from the Eurasian continent, or for Australia to be split in two.
456 Some1Has2BtheRookie: You have to add in heat expansion, but I am not sure that it would be that much.

For a 38metre-rise, the ocean would have to heat to 45degreesCelsius(113degreesFahrenheit). Immersion in that nearly scalding seawater for any extended period would kill everything except thermophiles and a few bacteria. Flooding would be the least of ones problems:
Over half of the CarbonDioxide-to-Oxygen conversion is done by phytoplankton and blue-green algae.
Freshwater&land plants would be none too happy. The average ocean temperature sets the baseline around which land temperatures vary. Growth would cease, eventually other life functions would halt.

After looking at the Australia topo and the India topo, looks like the FloodedEarth map is using a sea-rise of at least 200metres, maybe 250metres. NewDelhi is 216metres above sea-level.
(The color-to-elevation scales on the two maps are different. It appears that the dark green on the Australian map colors land up to 200metres above sea-level.)
Makes sense... cuz I think that a (MediterraneanSea-to-Black-Sea-to) CaspianSea-to-ArabianSea connection that'd cut the MiddleEast from Asia would also require a 200metre-or-so sea-level rise. Same with drowning most of Canada.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
HPC trending higher again.

We should be able to handle 4 inches in N GA, so we are borderline on flooding.
Rain should be spread out over a few days, so not anticipating anything.
Yes my area is getting lots of rain!.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It'll probably be showing a Cat 5 this time tomorrow. Lol.


LOL..NOW that will really set this blog off!
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Quoting ncstorm:
The CMC is also showing the system now heading to FL





It'll probably be showing a Cat 5 this time tomorrow. Lol.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Hmmm, I don't think 'interesting' was the word I had in mind...

Here's hoping the trolls don't notice the early developments.


One thing about this blog that never changes is that there will always be trolls and people responding to them..I just scroll on past them
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The CMC is also showing the system now heading to FL



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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting ncstorm:


Its going to be real interesting on this blog next week..


Hmmm, I don't think 'interesting' was the word I had in mind...

Here's hoping the trolls don't notice the early developments.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
EURO seems to have come off the EPAC development. More serious about east coast a bit.



Its going to be real interesting on this blog next week..
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06z GFS has a 996 mb low hitting Florida.

But the thing is it keeps on delaying the timeline, now on the 26th.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Near the end of this morning's 6z GFS run



A sub-1000 mb system headed for west Florida in May? This blog would explode.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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