2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2012

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The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters

Royse City Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Royse City Tornado
Hail no (rjctx74)
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Hail no
()

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Quoting yqt1001:
Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)


Basically all it has to do now, is become warm-core.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:
Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)




soooo....now what? the NHC will step in now?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
709. Where'd you get confirmation?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
Grothar, if you look back,I deserve a delicious cookie as I was the first person to bring 92L to the blog.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13332
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Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)

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AXNT20 KNHC 121038
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W
6N30W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-17W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-35W AND
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS THE DOMINATING THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE FLORIDA CONTINUING OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER E OKLAHOMA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
TO OVER TEXAS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO INLAND OVER
THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 84W-91W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1013 MB LOW OVER E TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE N GULF TO NEAR 30N87W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF 29N. THE UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN TO 25N87W. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS
MORNING AND DRIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TO
70W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W WITH PATCHES OF HAZE BEING REPORTED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. W ATLC ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TRADE WINDS TO
PERSIST FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 60W-75W EXTENDING S
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO 28N69W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N68W TO E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS NEAR 23N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB JUST OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N63W
26N63W TO 31N61W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 34N31W SUPPORTING A DEEPENING 1009 MB LOW NEAR
32N32W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N OF THE AREA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W
EXTENDING TO 25N27W. A JET STREAM IS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 110 WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM
25N35W TO BEYOND 32N23W. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINLY S OF 20N E OF
50W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL GLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING E FROM THE CAROLINAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS MAINLY N OF 25N
THROUGH LATE SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE
CONUS MON WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST BY LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33452
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder if the NHC will say anything at 2:00. The NHC needs to consider naming this storm.

ehh, not just yet, i imagine they want to see it "FULLY" detatch from the frontal boundary(Which it almost has), and for it to Transition at least into a shallow warm-core storm before deciding to mention it. If the system can do these things by tomorrow morning, I imagine with the timing and such, we could could get Alberto to form and last for about 48 hours before swinging back around toward Europe.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Give it a 30% chance of forming as of now. If it can transition into a warm-core and get the NHC's attention. Then I'll up the %


I don't give it much chance, unless it moves South.
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Quoting hydrus:


Things are warming up fast hydrus!
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I estimate this to have 50-60 Mph winds, Tight circulation, transitioning warm-core, and has about 96 hours to do something with it.

Wonder if the NHC will say anything at 2:00. The NHC needs to consider naming this storm.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33452
I estimate this to have 50-60 Mph winds, Tight circulation, transitioning warm-core, and has about 96 hours to do something with it.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting yqt1001:
I'm not advanced enough to know if the front has nearly detached or not, but it looks like it has.

I wish we had a ship or a buoy near the center of this.. I bet there some strong winds.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33452
Can the NHC pay any attention to this Please. They might find this has a chance if it progresses into a warmcore. Very good looking system, and Yeah, it does remind of Grace 09'
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
PINHOLE EYE!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
035

WWUS54 KMOB 121651

SVSMOB



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

1151 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012



MSC111-131-121730-

/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120512T1730Z/

STONE MS-PERRY MS-

1151 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND NORTH CENTRAL STONE COUNTIES...



AT 1149 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF WIGGINS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF

PERKINSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.



LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WIGGINS...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE

LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.



&&



LAT...LON 3083 8917 3089 8922 3092 8921 3091 8915

3097 8914 3103 8907 3090 8897

TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 232DEG 17KT 3089 8914



$$












================================================= =====================


742

WFUS54 KMOB 121644

TORMOB

MSC111-131-121730-

/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0027.120512T1644Z-120512T1730Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

NORTH CENTRAL STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...



* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT



* AT 1140 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF WIGGINS...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST

OF PERKINSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WIGGINS...



LAT...LON 3092 8921 3091 8915 3097 8914 3103 8907

3087 8895 3079 8920 3087 8926

TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 234DEG 19KT 3087 8916



$$












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I see a "PINHOLE" eye!.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY...

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting Ameister12:

That's crazy! EYE
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Whoa, I spy a tight circulation, and a clouded "eye" formation.... whaa?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Grothar:

Give it a 30% chance of forming as of now. If it can transition into a warm-core and get the NHC's attention. Then I'll up the %
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
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The lightning was awesome, second night in a row. Good it is heading east.
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Quoting txjac:


Nice video ...was awesome to see that happening last night. Totally loved it


Yes it certainly was!
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
I'm not advanced enough to know if the front has nearly detached or not, but it looks like it has.

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Got a good 5" of rain at my house last night!! Everywhere North of I-10 got hardly anything.

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
Strong thunderstorms are breaking out here in SE Mississippi. Tornado warned cell just north and east of Wiggins. It's certainly a nasty looking cell with a hook.

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Really cute system we got here.

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684. txjac
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Here is a video time lapse of some of the lightning in Houston last night


Link


Nice video ...was awesome to see that happening last night. Totally loved it
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T.C.F.A.
INV/90E/XX
MARK
9.8N/104.73W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh really? The tornadoes/hail that struck the Dallas-Fort Worth area last month caused more than $1,000,000,000.00 in damages? Really?!? I live in this area, and I'd like to go see that what that level of damage looks like. Where is it? I'd really like to see, because that's approximately the value of all the taxable real estate in the entirety of City of Highland Village (a very wealthy suburb of 15,000 people). But I haven't seen that level of destruction anywhere. Are they sure that's not a typo? Perhaps they meant to write Million instead... you know, because the B and the M keys are practically next to each other on a computer keyboard. Or perhaps they confused a thousands-group-separator comma with a decimal point (since they look nearly identical, it's an easy mistake to make).

I notice the number is comparable to large-scale flooding in Australia, which occurred over a wide area and lasted for a whole month. Hrm... why doesn't this balance out? Oh wait, these numbers come from an insurance company. Ah, okay, that makes sense now. Like we can trust the facts and figures of the same industry that gouges us on homeowners insurance and car insurance, and of course has created the most expensive (but not best quality) health care system on the entire planet...
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That's fine. I wasn't having a go at you anyway, I saw what you posted about it earlier and it looks like you were right, but just try to always be modest.

true thanks
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Here is a video time lapse of some of the lightning in Houston last night


Link
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 597
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
well its not bosting i was replying to sumone i did not remeber their name this morning we were just discussing sumthing i dont do that because that wud just be stupid


That's fine. I wasn't having a go at you anyway, I saw what you posted about it earlier and it looks like you were right, but just try to always be modest.
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pre season teasers
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Majority of the phase-diagrams say it's a symmetric cold core system that is currently transitioning to possibly a symmetric warm core system.
nothing more than a single cell convective mass with a rapid fire due to atomspheric dynamics at the moment its transitioning and should not be much of a threat to anyone won't last long
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


See, this is one of the biggest problems with the blog. As soon as something happens, it's all 'Oh yeah, this just like I said it would be yesterday,' and 'I told you so'. If you get one right, then well done, but we don't all need to hear about how incredibly intelligent you are, and you don't need to have a go at somebody who predicted something differently.
well its not bosting i was replying to sumone i did not remeber their name this morning we were just discussing sumthing i dont do that because that wud just be stupid
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I hope...no...I EXPECT the NHC to say something about it
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Here we go with our gulf of Honduras Development and to the west a TS in the EPacific
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Quoting washingtonian115:
C'mon 92L detach from the front so we can have a name to talk about...
yh the Atlantic 92L is different from the pacific 92 E i was talking bout the pacific but yes it was detached hopefully levi and doc will have an update one thing i am sure of the the 2006 H season the eastern pacific started of about 3 days later to this one but never did the Atlantic give it any competition
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


look at the EYE
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
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East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121635
TWOEP

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY...

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting hydrus:
The water is not warm there, but it does look tropical.
I have seen weirder things....
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Majority of the phase-diagrams say it's a symmetric cold core system that is currently transitioning to possibly a symmetric warm core system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23015
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
to the person who said there will be an invest 92 E it is just a case of i told u so since i said no it is too close to form they are competing and the one with the upper hand will prevail



See, this is one of the biggest problems with the blog. As soon as something happens, it's all 'Oh yeah, this just like I said it would be yesterday,' and 'I told you so'. If you get one right, then well done, but we don't all need to hear about how incredibly intelligent you are, and you don't need to have a go at somebody who predicted something differently.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think it is time for a Special Tropical Weather Outlook...

The water is not warm there, but it does look tropical.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.