2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2012

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The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters

Royse City Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Royse City Tornado
Hail no (rjctx74)
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Hail no
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July

A
A (90E has really fallen apart)
B
A
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
92L appears to be forming an eye wall. latest sat photo is showing what maybe an eye trying to form. this system is a very strong sub tropical/storm and could be very close to hurricane strengh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
763. SLU
Quoting yqt1001:
Coming together beautifully. O_o



Only hurricanes have eyes. If it looks like a cyclone, it probably is. Surprise, surprise!! If this systems works out as well as the GFS's proposed Caribbean development, we could have 2 named storms by June 1st.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GUYS, NHC info about 92L

awesome!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.



Aw, come on, you love em and you know it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poll Time!
92L will amount to...
(A) A May Invest(Nothing more)
(B) Sub-tropical storm
(C) Sub-tropical storm that strengthens into a tropical storm
(D) Hurricane

90E will amount to...
(A) Nothing more than an Invest
(B) Tropical Depression
(C) Tropical Storm
(D) Hurricane

If 92L doesn't become Alberto, when will it form?
(A) Later this month
(B) Early June
(C) Late June
(D) Early July
(E) Late July or Later

If 90E doesn't become Aletta, when will it form?
(A) Next Week
(B) Later this month
(C) June
(D) July
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Is it possible they could jump right into advisories without a TWO mention? Because it's pretty obvious the winds are at TS strength so if they determine it meets the criteria wouldn't they just initiate advisories?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/92L
MARK
33.1N/30.1W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
Quoting Levi32:


You can never know what the NHC will decide with these random things. Technically it's already at least partially warm-core, and oceansat reveals it has its own separate wind maximum. The next questions for the NHC are longevity and depth and organization of convection. We'll have to see if they care enough. They've done it before, just not this early in the year.

Thanks, much appreciated
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
Imagine 1983 on the blog. Talk about tasting agony, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eatern East Pacific

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
Quoting wxmod:


Did you notice a few days ago that the Sahara dust storm that was holding back tropical development had dispersed, allowing this storm to form. If you didn't, quit patting yourself on the back.


I think he was only kidding. I always give some bloggers a "cookie" when they do something good. hydrus is still waiting for his.

Come on guys, lets stop fighting over our first blob of the season. It's not nice to argue over blobs. Save that for when these things start pumping the ridge.
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Quoting nigel20:

What's Levi...do you think that 92L will amount to anything more than an invest?


You can never know what the NHC will decide with these random things. Technically it's already at least partially warm-core, and oceansat reveals it has its own separate wind maximum. The next questions for the NHC are longevity and depth and organization of convection. We'll have to see if they care enough. They've done it before, just not this early in the year.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
92L really has come out of no-where, it looks brilliantly organsied, firing convection with ease, and seems to have a closed circulation. It just looks tropical, which makes zero sense given the SSTs it's over.It looks like a mini Ophelia. She strengthened to a Category 4 over borderline tropical waters Northeast of Bermuda.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

Quoting Ameister12:


Very similar to Tropical Storm Grace in 2009.


This is where the issue with subjective tropical cyclone formation comes into play. If they named Grace, they might just have to name 92L. But then they might not just because it's outside of hurricane season where as Grace wasn't.
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749. JLPR2
That's one pretty May invest.
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Quoting yqt1001:
Coming together beautifully. O_o


That tight circulation is AMAZING to me... It's doing wonders for this system... Keep on marching little 92L!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
92L really has come out of no-where, it looks brilliantly organsied, firing convection with ease, and seems to have a closed circulation. It just looks tropical, which makes zero sense given the SSTs it's over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.


What's up Levi...do you think that 92L will amount to anything more than an invest?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
Quoting Levi32:
New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.


Why are you hating on our little amazing gift from the Atlantic? I'm very amused by this system, VERY.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
You have to watch the Atlantic wide view and watch 92L! I just watched it suck up its circulation and thats when it popped out a huge eye like feature.
Very weird how it appears to be strengthening like a normal tropical system. Link
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Coming together beautifully. O_o

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
802

WHXX01 KWBC 121332

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1332 UTC SAT MAY 12 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120512 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120512 1200 120513 0000 120513 1200 120514 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.1N 30.7W 32.9N 30.2W 33.9N 30.2W 34.8N 30.5W

BAMD 32.1N 30.7W 34.7N 29.4W 36.3N 30.1W 37.0N 31.2W

BAMM 32.1N 30.7W 33.9N 29.7W 35.4N 30.2W 36.2N 31.1W

LBAR 32.1N 30.7W 34.1N 28.3W 37.0N 26.6W 39.2N 25.6W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 35KTS 36KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120514 1200 120515 1200 120516 1200 120517 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 35.1N 31.1W 34.7N 31.8W 34.3N 30.1W 34.5N 26.0W

BAMD 36.8N 32.4W 36.3N 30.9W 39.4N 25.8W 41.1N 21.4W

BAMM 36.2N 32.1W 35.5N 32.5W 36.6N 28.8W 38.0N 24.1W

LBAR 40.9N 24.6W 42.2N 28.5W 40.3N 29.8W 39.3N 21.7W

SHIP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS

DSHP 35KTS 26KTS 18KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 32.6N LONM12 = 32.4W DIRM12 = 175DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 35.3N LONM24 = 31.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1020MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
Quoting overwash12:
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
739. wxmod
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Grothar, if you look back,I deserve a delicious cookie as I was the first person to bring 92L to the blog.


Did you notice a few days ago that the Sahara dust storm that was holding back tropical development had dispersed, allowing this storm to form. If you didn't, quit patting yourself on the back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just a quick note... The SPC added a slight risk area in their last outlook



HOW DARE YOU BRING ANYTHING UN-TROPICS RELATED TO THE BLOG!!!!!1




I am, of course, joking, btw.
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GOES Imager Cloud Albedo
May 12, 2012 - 16:45 UTC
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

And why is that?!
We have 90E that is possibly going to form over the next couple of days(maybe), and a system in the Atlantic shouting "Hey! look at me! Im trying to form out here, if you wanna issue a statement or Name me! Im right here!"


I think they are probably waiting for the next model runs to see what cyclonephase shows. With a system like this the uncertainty is pretty high when it comes to subtropical or extratropical.
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New Oceansat pass:

Gosh I hate these things.

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Quoting overwash12:
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.

I'd say probably around 21C...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting overwash12:
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.


About 20 - 21 degrees celsius.
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Quoting nigel20:
Invest 92L

Not half bad wind shear...
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Invest 92L
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
What are the sst's underneath 92L ? It's hard to believe it has a chance to become a warm cored system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:


He doesn't say much about it other than that he is surprised about how quick it developed (maybe 50% chance of development if the organization holds together). He also wanted to add that there is only one person who is likely at work in the NHC right now which would contribute to the lack of a STWO.

And why is that?!
We have 90E that is possibly going to form over the next couple of days(maybe), and a system in the Atlantic shouting "Hey! look at me! Im trying to form out here, if you wanna issue a statement or Name me! Im right here!"
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
.. A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 1230 PM CDT for
southwestern Perry County...
While everybody is talking about the tropics a tornado warning is in effect haha The Tropics have taken over

At 1212 PM CDT... a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles northeast of Wiggins... or 13 miles northeast of
Perkinston... moving northeast at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
rural southwestern Perry County

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Take cover now. For your protection move to an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building.

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing
damaging hail and destructive straight line winds.


Lat... Lon 3098 8912 3103 8907 3096 8901 3093 8899
3092 8899 3091 8907 3091 8914 3093 8914
time... Mot... loc 1715z 232deg 17kt 3096 8904
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727. wxmod
Quoting Bardeyes:
An invest! Praise the goddess! Bring on the blobs!


There's a saying in music: it's not just the notes that count, it's the silence between the notes. You'll understand the weather a lot better if you quit fixating on the storms. In fact, the most important thing that's happening in the weather these days is not the weather at all.
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Just a quick note... The SPC added a slight risk area in their last outlook

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
Good afternoon all....i see we have 92L in the atlantic
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8133
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Easier said than done over those SSTs

Yeah, very true.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

What's his thoughts on the system(92L)


He doesn't say much about it other than that he is surprised about how quick it developed (maybe 50% chance of development if the organization holds together). He also wanted to add that there is only one person who is likely at work in the NHC right now which would contribute to the lack of a STWO.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
Quoting yqt1001:


A college student who is training to work for the NHC atm.

What's his thoughts on the system(92L)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Basically all it has to do now, is become warm-core.

Easier said than done over those SSTs
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7833
Quoting CybrTeddy:
709. Where'd you get confirmation?


A college student who is training to work for the NHC atm.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
Quoting yqt1001:
Got confirmation that the front is pretty much detached from 92L (although barely)



As far as eye goes it's probably just a gap in the convection as it attempts to spin up. Same thing happens with most deeper convective sub tropical systems (Sean for an example)


Basically all it has to do now, is become warm-core.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.