2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2012

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The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters

Royse City Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Royse City Tornado
Hail no (rjctx74)
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Hail no
()

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112218Z - 112345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES EAST OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX AND OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.

A BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NW OF TYLER TX TO 15
MILES ENE OF TEMPLE TX WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME SEWD
PROPAGATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW -- MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG
ENHANCED IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION -- SUPPORTS REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION FARTHER SE. INVOF THE SQUALL LINE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING MAY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

SOUTH OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INVOF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
35-50 KT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION ARE YIELDING COMPARATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY.
THIS MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND
THIS MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30979786 31829680 32909605 32829527 30999443 29949457
29499496 29079611 29319821 30199852 30979786

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why is it so quiet?


Well on friday night people like hook up for two hours and never talk to each other again,

It's gotten windy out here!!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
The area to the west [between 110 and 120W] doesn't seem like it has much organization, if any. While 90E may not currently look as vigorous, it does have better vorticity, not to mention the anticyclone....

NOAA Floater has that up as 91E. It has just as much spin, if not more, than 90E.

Link
Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sounds like, despite its poor organization at this time, 90E will be the more significant feature and will have the highest chance for development.
The area to the west [between 110 and 120W] doesn't seem like it has much organization, if any. While 90E may not currently look as vigorous, it does have better vorticity, not to mention the anticyclone....
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Latest analysis of the area most likely to be in play for TC formation over the next 14 days.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
STRING OF ANTICYCLONES ALONG 10N ADD A TOUCH OF DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS. ONE PARTICULAR ANTICYCLONE
SITS RIGHT OVER DEVELOPING 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR
08.7N104.8W WHERE SST TOP 29 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALBEIT ONLY IN A
SHALLOW TOP LAYER. UNDER THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
THAN GFS...BUT DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN UKMET OR NOGAPS...MORE
IN TUNE WITH CMC BRINGING SPINNING WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN NEXT 48
HRS BEFORE A QUICK DOWNTURN AFTER THE WEEKEND LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOWNESS OF WARM WATER LAYER AND INCREASING SW WIND SHEAR
FROM UPSTREAM APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.


Sounds like, despite its poor organization at this time, 90E will be the more significant feature and will have the highest chance for development.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why is it so quiet?
Friday night? Maybe everyone except u and me r going out tonight.

I looked in to see if anything interesting had developed in the EPac, and also to se if we r likely to get much of anything with the front currently entering our area [Bahamas]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STRING OF ANTICYCLONES ALONG 10N ADD A TOUCH OF DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS. ONE PARTICULAR ANTICYCLONE
SITS RIGHT OVER DEVELOPING 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR
08.7N104.8W WHERE SST TOP 29 DEGREES CELSIUS...ALBEIT ONLY IN A
SHALLOW TOP LAYER. UNDER THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASE ORGANIZATION OF SYSTEM WITH DIFFERENT TRACKS
AND INTENSITIES. FORECAST LEANS TOWARD LESS AGGRESSIVE APPROACH
THAN GFS...BUT DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN UKMET OR NOGAPS...MORE
IN TUNE WITH CMC BRINGING SPINNING WINDS TO 30 KT WITHIN NEXT 48
HRS BEFORE A QUICK DOWNTURN AFTER THE WEEKEND LIKELY DUE TO
SHALLOWNESS OF WARM WATER LAYER AND INCREASING SW WIND SHEAR
FROM UPSTREAM APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why is it so quiet?


Must be Nap time.......
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Why is it so quiet?
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Lol... GFDL says a major hurricane is on the way... What else is new?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7947
Quoting Jedkins01:



I don't know, I still think the earth is shaped like a surface lamina, then again maybe I got my calculations wrong...
Lol..Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. It looks like a plate to me.:)
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According to the SHIPS model, 90E has about 96 hours of favorable conditions.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120

SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 13 14 18 12 18 9 19 24 30 30

SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.9

700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 68 65 63 57 60 64 60 58 55 50
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Sigh...he was one of ours. :/
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Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting Jedkins01:
I'm not sure the HPC's forecast of the system in the south will turn out very accurate, it want's to place a lot of its precip too far north over the next few days, but all the deepest moisture remains to the south as it has pressed eastward from Central/South Texas in the gulf as seen here:





Furthermore, upper divergence exists over the gulf and surface convergence, this will likely just perpetuate eastward, blocking higher moisture and 850 mb convergence from moving much further north...


That being said it would seems that the heaviest rain I think will persist all the way eastward and stay further south closer to the gulf coast, rather than spread northeast from its current location. Heavier rainfall will probably not spread northeast till the system approaches the southeast coast, a common scenario.

That being said I also think 5 day QPF over Florida is way too low, especially for the eastern half of that state, but that's no surprise there as QPF forecasts are often lower than actual amounts with rain event's down here.


I don't think there will be a deluge or anything, because they system will lose potency as it runs into high pressure, however daytime heating and might moisture combined with cooler air aloft will subsequently make up for that somewhat, causing a breakout of scattered heavy storms daily.


What this means is that the eastern half of Florida will see a return to drought relief rains, but rainfall on my side of the state will likely be limited as convection over the gulf will likely not be that impressive with the system by the time it gets here, rainfall will be mainly heating triggered, with a westerly flow that means mostly dry here with limited drought relief, just continued warm and humid.


Hi Jed this moisture is aimed at the northern half of FL that's why the NWS in Tampa really ramped up rain chances for Sunday and Monday. Could be a real nice soaking on the way for C & N FL. I really had to laugh at the HPC's rainfall forecast for Sunday as not only is it too far north it's also too far west. GFS & Euro show all the rain over the eastern Gulf & FL on Sunday.



NAM Precip Map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You're right MA.

This is Invest 90E, the weak, disorganized looking invest:



and this is Invest 91E, which has yet to pop up on the ATCF file...thus being unofficial.

Afternoon, looks can be deceiving!

90e has better vorticity
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll just file this under while I was sleeping. I won't say the forecasts were wrong but maybe a little over enthusiastic? Our flash flood watch was removed. Looks like we're pretty much done.

More than 2 inches of rain falls in parts of SETX


SOUTHEAST TEXAS - More than 2 inches of rain has fallen in parts of Southeast Texas as a wide area of storms moves across the region.

Winds gusting to 20 and 30 miles an hour, and in spots, tropical storm force winds, knocked down trees and power lines in isolated areas.

A power outage at Vidor High School prompted administrators to release students at 10 a.m. Friday.

Power was out this morning in the Kirbyville area and other locations but the power is being restored.

No flooding is reported in the region.

The large area of rain is moving out of the area but more scattered showers are expected to develop Friday afternoon and evening as an upper level low that triggered the storms moves east from West Texas.

The 90% chance of rain early Friday has now been reduced to 60%.
The rain should end by daybreak Saturday.

As of early Friday morning, rain totals in inches included:

Lumberton - 2.35

Vidor - 2.22

Kelly - 2.16

Central High School - 1.9

Anahuac - 1.65

Mauriceville - 2.25

Winnie - 1.21

Kountze - .75
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You're right MA.

This is Invest 90E, the weak, disorganized looking invest:



and this is Invest 91E, which has yet to pop up on the ATCF file...thus being unofficial.

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New Orleans Weather at a Glance

Weather Station - report

Uptown, New Orleans

Elevation
20 ft
Station Select
Now

Light Rain Mist
Temperature
70.3 °F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rainy Days and Mondays always get me down......


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26865
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm pretty sure the good looking one is actually 91E and the blob to the right is 90E... That could be wrong though... Very confusing having two invests right next to each other

I'll have to check, just got home from school.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 90E needs a Special Tropical Weather Outlook with a 30% chance for formation. It's become better organized as compared to this morning.

I see we have Invest 91E as well?


I'm pretty sure the good looking one is actually 91E and the blob to the right is 90E... That could be wrong though... Very confusing having two invests right next to each other
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7947
Invest 90E needs a Special Tropical Weather Outlook with a 30% chance for formation. It's become better organized as compared to this morning.

I see we have Invest 91E as well?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not sure the HPC's forecast of the system in the south will turn out very accurate, it want's to place a lot of its precip too far north over the next few days, but all the deepest moisture remains to the south as it has pressed eastward from Central/South Texas in the gulf as seen here:





Furthermore, upper divergence exists over the gulf and surface convergence, this will likely just perpetuate eastward, blocking higher moisture and 850 mb convergence from moving much further north...


That being said it would seems that the heaviest rain I think will persist all the way eastward and stay further south closer to the gulf coast, rather than spread northeast from its current location. Heavier rainfall will probably not spread northeast till the system approaches the southeast coast, a common scenario.

That being said I also think 5 day QPF over Florida is way too low, especially for the eastern half of that state, but that's no surprise there as QPF forecasts are often lower than actual amounts with rain event's down here.


I don't think there will be a deluge or anything, because they system will lose potency as it runs into high pressure, however daytime heating and might moisture combined with cooler air aloft will subsequently make up for that somewhat, causing a breakout of scattered heavy storms daily.


What this means is that the eastern half of Florida will see a return to drought relief rains, but rainfall on my side of the state will likely be limited as convection over the gulf will likely not be that impressive with the system by the time it gets here, rainfall will be mainly heating triggered, with a westerly flow that means mostly dry here with limited drought relief, just continued warm and humid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Technical Attachment
AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region


Introduction

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have a variety of prediction models available to provide guidance for their forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity. The intent of this paper is to provide a brief overview of each of the models. Forecasters may find this information helpful when considering NHC discussions which mention the performance of individual models. A primary reference is provided after the summary of each model for readers who desire more information. NOTE: All thumbnail graphics in this Web document are linked to larger version of the graphics.
Just click the thumbnail to view the larger version.

As noted by Neumann (1979), models for the prediction of tropical cyclone motion and intensity may be classified as either statistical or dynamical. Statistical models rely on what has happened-the climatology of past storms, for example. Dynamical models can be classified as either barotropic or baroclinic. Statistical-dynamical models are an intermediate class that incorporate numerically forecast data into a statistical prediction framework, similar to the Model Output Statistics used to provide guidance for specific parameters such as temperature and probability of precipitation.


BAM - The Beta and Advection Model

The Beta and Advection Model is a baroclinic-dynamical track prediction model. It produces a forecast track by following a trajectory in the vertically averaged horizontal wind starting at the current storm location out to 120 hours. The trajectory is corrected to account for the variation of the Coriolis force with latitude, the so-called Beta effect. (Beta is the Greek letter frequently used in meteorological equations to represent the change in the Coriolis parameter with latitude.)

The figure shows how the conservation of absolute vorticity results in the formation of anticyclonic relative vorticity in the northeast quadrant of the storm, and the formation of cyclonic relative vorticity in the southwest quadrant of the storm: . The result adds a component of motion to the northwest to the storm's trajectory.




Three versions of the BAM model are run with shallow (850-700 mb), medium (850-400 mb), and deep (850-200 mb) layers. All three versions of the model are run operationally four times per day.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also GFS will have an upgrade on May 22. Let's see if it becomes the #1 model and surpasses ECMWF after the upgrade.

Link


Let's hope so!!!
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Quoting WxGeekVA:






LOL
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The world is flat Pat.....and its at the center......I love it when they pick a date for the " end " and it does not happen. Then blame it on a math mistake...he he..



I don't know, I still think the earth is shaped like a surface lamina, then again maybe I got my calculations wrong...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And also GFS will have an upgrade on May 22. Let's see if it becomes the #1 model and surpasses ECMWF after the upgrade.

Link


Quoting WxLogic:
Good Afternoon,

Some upgrades coming up for HWRF and GFDL.

Interesting note for the GFDL:

"In tests of storms from the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, these
improvements resulted in an average reduction of track forecast
error of about 12 percent in the 2 to 5 day forecast time
periods.

The average reduction in intensity errors averaged nearly 20
percent in the Atlantic basin during the same forecast time
periods for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, primarily through
elimination of the large positive intensity bias."


Interesting notes for HWRF:

"Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed
significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast
skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast
biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. "


- All welcomed upgrades coming up on May 24 and 29.

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3476
Quoting RTSplayer:


No, it is not.

Catholics and the majority of protestants consider the Mayan 2012 nonsense to be either a mis-representation of the calendar's meaning, or else just a false prophecy.

The Mayan 2012 thing is promoted by the New Age movement and Occult "spiritists," which have no relation to Biblical, historical Christianity.

They sometimes quote from the Bible in a twisted effort to hide their sinister motives. Anyone can quote the Bible, doesn't make them a believer or anything. Satan is seen in the Bible quoting other parts of the Bible out of context in a vain attempt to confuse Jesus.

Anyone can quote something as a reference, but it doesn't mean their context, interpretation, or application is correct.


That's nothing new in this blog, some people love do that here...
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182. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Trending a little lighter, but several local WFOs think this might be underdone:


Thanks for this.. I'm in Southern Mississippi, in the rain. Internet is really slow.

Had to glance at the east coast low the models are calling for. CMC has it go Cold core quick..nover warm for does gfs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Afternoon,

Some upgrades coming up for HWRF and GFDL.

Interesting note for the GFDL:

"In tests of storms from the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, these
improvements resulted in an average reduction of track forecast
error of about 12 percent in the 2 to 5 day forecast time
periods.

The average reduction in intensity errors averaged nearly 20
percent in the Atlantic basin during the same forecast time
periods for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, primarily through
elimination of the large positive intensity bias."


Interesting notes for HWRF:

"Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed
significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast
skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast
biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. "


- All welcomed upgrades coming up on May 24 and 29.


And also GFS will have an upgrade on May 22. Let's see if it becomes the #1 model and surpasses ECMWF after the upgrade.

Link
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8320
I forgot to post this earlier... I mentioned the 12z GFS backed off Alberto, however it still shows a low pressure, albeit quite a bit delayed compared to previous runs...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7947
Good Afternoon,

Some upgrades coming up for HWRF and GFDL.

Interesting note for the GFDL:

"In tests of storms from the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, these
improvements resulted in an average reduction of track forecast
error of about 12 percent in the 2 to 5 day forecast time
periods.

The average reduction in intensity errors averaged nearly 20
percent in the Atlantic basin during the same forecast time
periods for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, primarily through
elimination of the large positive intensity bias."


Interesting notes for HWRF:

"Test results from the combination of these upgrades showed
significantly improved track, intensity and structure forecast
skills and improved track, intensity and storm radius forecast
biases in both Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. "


- All welcomed upgrades coming up on May 24 and 29.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at that low...that's how 2009 Grace formed...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
More rain is expected in the Weekend for Puerto Rico.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
322 PM AST FRI MAY 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING...COMBINED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 11/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WAS UNSTABLE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -8 AND CAPE OF ALMOST 4K.
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...SOME OF WHICH HAD HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WAS OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS AS WELL
AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
CAPE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...BUT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASING
AS WELL. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINAL AFTER 11/21Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 11/21Z. WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11/23Z BUT MOSTLY ABOVE 4KFT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT
5 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 88 78 / 30 20 30 20
STT 86 77 86 78 / 30 30 20 20
More! When will the pattern change?
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-007-121900-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-CALEDONIA-
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 30S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-007-121900-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-CALEDONIA-
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 30S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


These are my thoughts. 90E is very well-organized...and I give it a 100% chance of eventually becoming Aletta. By the way...why is the NHC not writing a special Tropical Weather Outlook for 90E?

Who knows when we'll ever see Alberto....

If this were 4 days from now it would have an orange circle around it but the NHC is extremely conservative in the off season, even if the start is just a couple days away. Also, the system has no support from the ECMWF, so that throws a variable into the forecast. I say 80% chance this forms.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7947
dont we have a guy from boston here?..must still be cold up there............................URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

MAZ002-003-008>011-NHZ015-120345-
/O.EXA.KBOX.FR.Y.0004.120512T0600Z-120512T1200Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON. ..SPRINGFIELD...
PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS...FROST

* TEMPERATURES...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

* TIMING...BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...FROST COULD DAMAGE ANY TENDER VEGETATION THAT IS
OUTDOORS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE GROWING SEASON. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS ARE
ADVISED TO HARVEST OR PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED
PLANTS NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE
AWAY FROM THE COLD.

&&

$$
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


These are my thoughts too. 90E is very well-organized...and I give it a 100% chance of eventually becoming Aletta. By the way...why is the NHC not writing a special Tropical Weather Outlook for 90E?

Who knows when we'll ever see Alberto....
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Quoting Ameister12:
EPac is opening up for business. =D


Not feeling that much excitement personally...I am a dedicated Atlantic fan for some reason....
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Quoting Doppler22:
Who really thinks Aletta will form from 90E? and who thinks Alberto will form soon?

Myself I think Aletta will form but idk about Alberto.


These are my thoughts. 90E is very well-organized...and I give it a 100% chance of eventually becoming Aletta. By the way...why is the NHC not writing a special Tropical Weather Outlook for 90E?

Who knows when we'll ever see Alberto....
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sorry for caps
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting hurricaneben:
My prediction is that Invest 90L will gradually develop and POSSIBLY become TS Aletta within' the next few days, then if lucky, strengthens even more and possibly attains hurricane strength, but at this time a TS is somewhat more likely for the peak, as the conditions are favorable for MAY but not as favorable as it should be towards the peak of the season. The NHC will tag it either with a yellow (low chance) or medium (moderate chance) pretty soon.
YOU MEAN 90E NOT L
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
My prediction is that Invest 90L will gradually develop and POSSIBLY become TS Aletta within' the next few days, then if lucky, strengthens even more and possibly attains hurricane strength, but at this time a TS is somewhat more likely for the peak, as the conditions are favorable for MAY but not as favorable as it should be towards the peak of the season. The NHC will tag it either with a yellow (low chance) or medium (moderate chance) pretty soon.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
TX bound!



Quite a few High Pressures there to block it... :-/
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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