2nd billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012: April 3 severe weather in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2012

Share this Blog
38
+

The U.S. suffered its second billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 on April 3, when a massive hailstorm and 21 tornadoes hit the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas region, said insurance company Aon Benfield, in their latest monthly Global Catastrophe Recap Report. They put the damage at $1 billion. The tornado outbreak included one EF-3 twister, which hit Forney, Texas. A severe hailstorm during the outbreak hit the DFW airport, damaging over 100 airplanes, and forcing the temporary closure of the airport. The other billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 was the March 2 - 3 tornado outbreak in the Midwest and Southeast. NOAA put the total cost of the tornadoes that killed 41 people in Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama during the outbreak at $1.5 billion. There were two EF-4 tornadoes, one which devastated Henryville, Indiana, and another that plowed through Crittenden, Kentucky. On average, the U.S. sees 3 - 4 billion-dollar weather disasters each year, with 1 - 2 of these being severe weather/tornado outbreaks. In 2011, we already had five billion-dollar weather-related disasters by the first week of May, so we are well behind last year's pace. NOAA's National Climatic Data Center logged a record fourteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2011. There has been just one other billion-dollar disaster in the world this year, according to Aon Benfield--severe flooding in Australia's New South Wales and Victoria states in late February and early March that caused $1.58 billion in damage. A separate flooding episode in late January and early February came close, causing an additional $920 million in damage in Australia.


Figure 1. The EF-3 tornado that hit Forney, Texas, on April 3, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer ClockworkLemon


Video 1. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.



Canada and Midwest U.S. frost/freeze damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars
Damage to fruit trees in Ontario, Canada due to a series of frosts and freezes over the past six weeks will easily top $100 million dollars, said the Windsor Star this week. About 80% of the Ontario apple crop was wiped out. At the Ann Arbor Farmer's Market yesterday, I talked to a local apple grower who told me that her orchard in Southeast Lower Michigan had suffered at least a 90% loss of its apple crop. She said the story was similar for all the growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, grapes, cherries, and plums in Michigan. "The only year that can compare was 1945," she told me, "and that year wasn't nearly as bad as 2012." Fruit crops in Pennsylvania and New York State have suffered heavy damage as well, and the total damage to agriculture from this year's freezes will likely be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this damage occurred despite the fact that April temperatures across the region were above average. The culprit was the extraordinary "Summer in March" weather in mid-March 2012, which brought a week of 80°F-plus temperature to the region that triggered a record early bloom.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Eastern Pacific Invest 90E.

Hurricane season is coming
It's now mid-May, which means that hurricane season is about to start in the East Pacific. The official start of the East Pacific hurricane season is May 15, and the action is already starting to heat up. The first "Invest" of 2012 in the East Pacific, Invest 90E, is located about 700 miles south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, and is moving westward out to sea, posing no threat to any land areas. The European Center model predicts the possibility of another system getting organized in the East Pacific, closer to the coast of Mexico, during the period Wednesday - Friday (May 16 - 18.)

In the Atlantic, where hurricane season officially starts on June 1, the action may also be about to heat up. For the past several days, the GFS model has been consistently predicting the development of a subtropical storm in the Western Caribbean, or waters near Florida, sometime May 19 - May 21. The European Center model has not been on board with this, but has been predicting a very moist flow of tropical air will develop, bringing heavy rains to Florida May 19 - 20. So, it is possible we will see the Atlantic's first named storm occur in May this year, but the models are very unreliable this far out.

Have a great weekend, everyone!


Jeff Masters

Royse City Tornado (ClockworkLemon)
Tornado that hit Royse City 4/3/12
Royse City Tornado
Hail no (rjctx74)
Hail from tornados. April storms 2012
Hail no
()

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 265 - 215

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Quoting LargoFl:
weather guys are not too hopeful, rain chances everywhere but around tampa bay..gee.............


We got 50% Sunday and 40% Monday so far...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weather guys are not too hopeful, rain chances everywhere but around tampa bay..gee.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42139
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully we will get something out of this

I sure hope so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:

I sure hope that reaches US....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully we will get something out of this
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42139
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42139
Quoting LargoFl:
i agree, its been raining everywhere in florida but here..but maybe whats in texas now will somehow give US a few showers sunday-monday

Man, I sure hope so... This heat and humidity with no rain is really demoralizing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thunderbug91:


Why, WHY CAN'T WE GET THIS IN HILLSBOROUGH?!?
i agree, its been raining everywhere in florida but here..but maybe whats in texas now will somehow give US a few showers sunday-monday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42139
Sup KoTG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

FLZ060-062-065-120000-
SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE...SOUTH CENTRAL SARASOTA AND
WESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EL JOBEAN TO 16
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ESTERO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORT
CHARLOTTE TO 9 MILES EAST OF BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...
WILL AFFECT GULF COVE...BURNT STORE MARINA...PAGE PARK AND WHISKEY
CREEK...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...AND PORT CHARLOTTE....UNTIL 800 PM
EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 116 AND 164.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2674 8208 2687 8207 2690 8211 2695 8207
2694 8211 2691 8214 2692 8217 2683 8215
2704 8232 2700 8204 2642 8159 2641 8166
2631 8166 2631 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 279DEG 3KT 2695 8216 2630 8165

$$

JOHNSON


Why, WHY CAN'T WE GET THIS IN HILLSBOROUGH?!?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Prediction:
90E wont form
91E will get to Tropical depression status
92E(Forecasted by GFS) Becomes Aletta

We dont get Alberto
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

FLZ060-062-065-120000-
SARASOTA-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
722 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEE...SOUTH CENTRAL SARASOTA AND
WESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EL JOBEAN TO 16
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ESTERO...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORT
CHARLOTTE TO 9 MILES EAST OF BONITA SPRINGS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH...
WILL AFFECT GULF COVE...BURNT STORE MARINA...PAGE PARK AND WHISKEY
CREEK...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...AND PORT CHARLOTTE....UNTIL 800 PM
EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 116 AND 164.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER
VEHICLES.

RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2674 8208 2687 8207 2690 8211 2695 8207
2694 8211 2691 8214 2692 8217 2683 8215
2704 8232 2700 8204 2642 8159 2641 8166
2631 8166 2631 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 279DEG 3KT 2695 8216 2630 8165

$$

JOHNSON
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42139


I think it may fall apart before it hits
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42139
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Is that a UFO in the bottom left of this image?



If by UFO you mean a light reflection artifact, then yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Have we had our first tropical wave roll off yet? can't tell if its happened or not.

No, not yet....i thought we had our first wave the other day, but it was a trough embedded in the ITCZ
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
244.
IMO I believe it was may 5
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is that a UFO in the bottom left of this image?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8040
May 11, SST Anomaly
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Have we had our first tropical wave roll off yet? can't tell if its happened or not.

Nope, not yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Have we had our first tropical wave roll off yet? can't tell if its happened or not.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting BahaHurican:
DC115, nothing about a storm in the ATL is as laughable as it was 2 weeks ago. The official start to the season is only 3 Fridays away.

Dunno whether we'll get anything in the ATL before June, but I'm pretty sure something will pop in the EPac before then.

I expect one or the other of the two watched areas coming out of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough will get its act together over the next 24 hours.
91E looks more organized and than 90E.Looks like we have some serious competition...The east Pacific just can't wait to get stared.It seems excited.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1819 UTC FRI MAY 11 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902012) 20120511 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120511 1800 120512 0600 120512 1800 120513 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 8.9N 104.7W 9.8N 105.4W 10.1N 106.1W 10.0N 107.0W

BAMD 8.9N 104.7W 9.9N 105.5W 10.6N 106.3W 11.2N 107.2W

BAMM 8.9N 104.7W 9.8N 105.5W 10.3N 106.1W 10.5N 106.6W

LBAR 8.9N 104.7W 10.0N 105.3W 11.5N 106.3W 13.1N 107.6W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120513 1800 120514 1800 120515 1800 120516 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.0N 108.0W 10.2N 109.7W 11.1N 111.5W 12.6N 113.9W

BAMD 11.6N 108.2W 12.5N 109.9W 13.8N 112.1W 15.9N 114.2W

BAMM 10.8N 107.2W 11.3N 108.4W 12.2N 110.4W 13.9N 112.8W

LBAR 14.5N 108.7W 17.5N 110.5W 19.6N 111.1W 21.2N 108.6W

SHIP 49KTS 50KTS 47KTS 41KTS

DSHP 49KTS 50KTS 47KTS 41KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 104.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 104.5W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 103.9W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 110NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56077
CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90E



INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 11



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 8.7 104.8 285./ 2.9

6 9.0 104.6 37./ 4.1

12 9.4 104.4 15./ 4.7

18 9.9 104.3 16./ 4.5

24 10.4 104.2 16./ 5.5

30 10.7 104.1 4./ 3.1

36 11.0 104.4 322./ 3.7

42 11.3 104.4 353./ 2.6

48 11.6 104.6 324./ 4.0

54 12.0 104.8 343./ 4.1

60 12.4 105.1 325./ 5.6

66 12.8 105.5 309./ 4.8

72 13.2 105.9 309./ 6.2

78 13.5 106.5 303./ 6.6

84 13.9 107.1 306./ 6.8

90 14.3 107.7 303./ 6.7

96 14.8 108.2 311./ 7.8

102 15.5 108.8 320./ 8.1

108 16.2 109.3 325./ 8.6

114 16.9 109.5 344./ 8.0

120 17.8 109.6 351./ 8.7

126 18.7 109.6 3./ 8.7


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56077
Quoting nigel20:

Agreed. What's up wash?
Been busy all day.At least the weather was enjoyable.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
DC115, nothing about a storm in the ATL is as laughable as it was 2 weeks ago. The official start to the season is only 3 Fridays away.

Dunno whether we'll get anything in the ATL before June, but I'm pretty sure something will pop in the EPac before then.

I expect one or the other of the two watched areas coming out of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough will pop over the next 24 hours.

Hey Baha. I see that you've been having pretty good weather lately
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
DC115, nothing about a storm in the ATL is as laughable as it was 2 weeks ago. The official start to the season is only 3 Fridays away.

Dunno whether we'll get anything in the ATL before June, but I'm pretty sure something will pop in the EPac before then.

I expect one or the other of the two watched areas coming out of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough will get its act together over the next 24 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Looks like a squall line is trying to get itself together West of Houston. We will see if it makes it to Houston. Cheers to hoping it does!



cheers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like a squall line is trying to get itself together West of Houston. We will see if it makes it to Houston. Cheers to hoping it does!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even though some of you are laughing at the GFS for showing a storm in the Caribbean for days not you got ah admit....It's been one persistent bastard.

Agreed. What's up wash?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We now have 91E at NRL:


It's still not up on the ATCF file for some reason.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Even though some of you are laughing at the GFS for showing a storm in the Caribbean for days now you got ah admit....It's been one persistent bastard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
We now have 91E at NRL:

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14900
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Or dry air.

TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND
NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN
AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS
MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR
THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES
NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED
CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

Link

Thanks for the info Tropics
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Good to see :)

Also looks like there's a very good chance we'll have Bud (or Aletta if we don't get her in the next couple days) by the end of next week


The GFS recurves it into Mexico as a strong tropical storm. The ECMWF keeps it on a straight path and makes it a hurricane.

Hurricane Bud is a fitting name.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
91E isn't nearly as good looking as earlier... Maybe it's D-min out there?


nope D-Min is still in the Central Caribbean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Alberto's back.


Good to see :)

Also looks like there's a very good chance we'll have Bud (or Aletta if we don't get her in the next couple days) by the end of next week

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8040
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
91E isn't nearly as good looking as earlier... Maybe it's D-min out there?



Or dry air.

TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND
NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN
AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS
MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR
THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES
NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A
PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED
CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS
BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14900
91E isn't nearly as good looking as earlier... Maybe it's D-min out there?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8040
Good evening all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8473
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS came in very similar to the previous runs with its track and intensity for the potential Aletta

Alberto's back.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS came in very similar to the previous runs with its track and intensity for the potential Aletta
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8040
91E appears to look much better organized.
90E doesnt look all that impressive.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

NOAA Floater has that up as 91E. It has just as much spin, if not more, than 90E.

Link
Link
Didn't look like much torque to me earlier... but I suppose things r changing as we speak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112218Z - 112345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES EAST OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX AND OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.

A BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NW OF TYLER TX TO 15
MILES ENE OF TEMPLE TX WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME SEWD
PROPAGATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW -- MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG
ENHANCED IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION -- SUPPORTS REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION FARTHER SE. INVOF THE SQUALL LINE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING MAY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

SOUTH OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INVOF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
35-50 KT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION ARE YIELDING COMPARATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY.
THIS MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND
THIS MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30979786 31829680 32909605 32829527 30999443 29949457
29499496 29079611 29319821 30199852 30979786


Centex mets haven't really had a handle on this low and what it's doing. I've been considering it a cyclone and expecting what a TS come ashore would do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Deleted: Same post as above
You beat me to it 1900hurricane 1

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112218Z - 112345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE INTO THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED MESOSCALE SFC BOUNDARIES EAST OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N TX AND OK
WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX.

A BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NW OF TYLER TX TO 15
MILES ENE OF TEMPLE TX WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SOME SEWD
PROPAGATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE INFLOW -- MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG
ENHANCED IN POCKETS OF INSOLATION -- SUPPORTS REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION FARTHER SE. INVOF THE SQUALL LINE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 25-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING MAY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

SOUTH OF THE SQUALL LINE TOWARD THE SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON
AREAS...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING INVOF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- I.E. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
35-50 KT. RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS REGION ARE YIELDING COMPARATIVELY STRONGER BUOYANCY.
THIS MAY OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THAT THIS REGION IS REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND
THIS MAY MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30979786 31829680 32909605 32829527 30999443 29949457
29499496 29079611 29319821 30199852 30979786

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 265 - 215

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
39 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron