Photos from Climate Impacts Day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:06 PM GMT on May 06, 2012

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On Saturday, May 5, the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, launched a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Below are photos from some of the many events on Climate Impacts Day as archived on the climatedots.org website. It is remarkable to view the slide show on their web site and see the degree of global participation this event had; 350.org has created a dedicated and creative global climate movement that will be a major force to reckon with in the coming years.


Figure 1. Volunteers in the city of Salvador, Brazil, have connected the dots have and drawn people's attention to sea level rise and what it impacts in our life.


Figure 2. Madaba, Jordan. "Drops (of water) are dots of hope". A beautiful message from King's Academy in drought-prone Jordan.


Figure 3. Activists hold a banner in front of a damaged coral reef in the vulnerable Marshall Islands. Rising temperatures and increased CO2 uptake are raising the acidity of the ocean, which bleaches and ultimately kills fragile coral reefs.


Figure 4. One thousand students in Bekaa, Lebanon make their dots into the wheels of a giant bicycle to raise awareness about the threat of air pollution, and to advocate for bike lanes.


Figure 5. In 2009, at 17,785 feet in Bolivia's Cordillera Oriental was the Chacaltaya Glacier. Before its unexpected melting, it was home to Bolivia's only ski resort and the first tow-rope ever to be built in South America. Today all that remains is a rocky mountain-top that only receives seasonal snowfall. Photo by Lauren Farnsworth.


Figure 6. Ausable Valley, NY, USA: Young people in New York understand the first-hand impacts of climate change. Hurricane Irene, the third five-hundred-year climate event in the last twelve months, devastated communities in the region and pummeled the beachfront with debris.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PlazaRed:

What on Earth have you done to your splendid avatars? Is this some kind of Protest?

The only problem with the tree cutting down scenario is that the tree ceased to be.

Those bristle cone pines have some stories to tell over the 5000+ years that they have been absorbing carbon?

In reality debris is what tells the story of floods and tsunamis, after all not a lot of people survived really big disasters and most of them had no way to convey their experiences as writing has nor been generally around for a long time in "rural," areas!
Well I've been trying to upload another picture but wunderground's stupid location thing isn't popping up.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


these occurences have been happening for awhile now since the blackbirds fell from the sky after midnight jan 1 2011 and just like then and now we still not know why


I can sort of come to terms with Blackbirds falling even though I have not any explanation but when you get to higher mammal life forms like Dolphins which are similar to humans then it needs a "Probe."
If its not poison, or radiation then, what? Its not murder as there is no evidence of weapons use; its not natural as it localised and not spread over a wide area!
Somebody mentioned those Harp devices but they might be living in cloud cuckoo land? Maybe Not!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
Wow Skypony looks like a melted art form, beautiful but probably not a good sign.
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259. Skyepony (Mod)
Something happened to the live cameras at Fukushima..
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Quoting EugeneTillman:



In the 1970, scientists were telling us the next ice age is upon us. How did that one turn out?


No, they weren't.

Link

Link

Link
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You know when they cut down a tree they can use the rings inside the bark to tell a story about what the tree has been through.

What on Earth have you done to your splendid avatars? Is this some kind of Protest?

The only problem with the tree cutting down scenario is that the tree ceased to be.

Those bristle cone pines have some stories to tell over the 5000+ years that they have been absorbing carbon?

In reality debris is what tells the story of floods and tsunamis, after all not a lot of people survived really big disasters and most of them had no way to convey their experiences as writing has nor been generally around for a long time in "rural," areas!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
94S:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
Quoting PlazaRed:
Here we go:- News report.

LIMA, Peru (AP) -- Peru's Health Ministry is urging people to stay away from Pacific beaches from Lima northward after recent large-scale deaths of pelicans and dolphins.

Neither the Health Ministry nor Peru's oceanographic institute has determined the cause of the deaths, and there is no indication the deaths of the birds and the mammals are related.

And Saturday's warning did not indicate why it might be dangerous to visit beaches. Peru's agricultural safety service ruled out Friday that the pelicans could have died of avian flu, which could be contagious to humans.

An adventurous theory I would say points to a nuclear sub having lost the plot and let loose a lot of radiation.
Hundreds of dolphins dead plus all sorts of other nasties.

Here's the link if you want to have a dig at it?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_PERU_PE LICAN_DEATHS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE =DEFAULT &CTIME=2012-05-06-16-20-49


these occurences have been happening for awhile now since the blackbirds fell from the sky after midnight jan 1 2011 and just like then and now we still not know why

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


The website is fine. Extreme events leave a record of their passing. Heavy flooding events, for example, leave a sedimentary record of their passing. Materials from distant regions (sediments, life forms, etc.) leave a tell-tale marker and when compared to other samples from the same area can yield insight into how severe and extensive the flooding was. Using that information along with other data from both present and past it is possible to determine the statistics of certain events over time.

I would suggest you try to make an effort to learn about a topic before dismissing it.
You know when they cut down a tree they can use the rings inside the bark to tell a story about what the tree has been through.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
526 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOC037-062245-
/O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120506T2245Z/
CASS MO-
526 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR 195THA ND OLD
SCHOOL ROAD NEAR RAYMORE...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

IN ADDITION AT 515 PM...A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
A TORNADO NEAR RAYMORE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAYMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. TAKE COVER IN A
BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3882 9445 3875 9440 3874 9450 3877 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 250DEG 5KT 3876 9447

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

DEROCHE

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
I can't wait for hurricane season! We will stop arguing haha! Right now blobs will do!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
Quoting jonger1150:
This website is quickly becoming a joke.

500 year hurricane in NY? How the heck do you know what happened beyond 100 years ago in regard to hurricanes... No satellite or radar.


The website is fine. Extreme events leave a record of their passing. Heavy flooding events, for example, leave a sedimentary record of their passing. Materials from distant regions (sediments, life forms, etc.) leave a tell-tale marker and when compared to other samples from the same area can yield insight into how severe and extensive the flooding was. Using that information along with other data from both present and past it is possible to determine the statistics of certain events over time.

I would suggest you try to make an effort to learn about a topic before dismissing it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here we go:- News report.

LIMA, Peru (AP) -- Peru's Health Ministry is urging people to stay away from Pacific beaches from Lima northward after recent large-scale deaths of pelicans and dolphins.

Neither the Health Ministry nor Peru's oceanographic institute has determined the cause of the deaths, and there is no indication the deaths of the birds and the mammals are related.

And Saturday's warning did not indicate why it might be dangerous to visit beaches. Peru's agricultural safety service ruled out Friday that the pelicans could have died of avian flu, which could be contagious to humans.

An adventurous theory I would say points to a nuclear sub having lost the plot and let loose a lot of radiation.
Hundreds of dolphins dead plus all sorts of other nasties.

Here's the link if you want to have a dig at it?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_PERU_PE LICAN_DEATHS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT &CTIME=2012-05-06-16-20-49
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
249. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is finished for them they stepped over the line i wunder how the big conference will go now on the 21st of may in the windy city


It will be interesting..I'm seeing quotes from companies & even people that were suppose to speak that are backing out...this opposes Anthony Watts saying something like this is justified as the situation is so desperate.

How radioactive has Heartland become? Consider one invited speaker to their forthcoming conference, Donna Laframboise, a Canadian climate denier who has spent the last several months launching an absurd attack on the IPCC [see Fox Scraping the Barrel for Attacks on UN Climate Panel (or, You Have Got To Be F*!$*%@&! Kidding Me)]. She just published a piece, “Why I Won’t Be Speaking at the Heartland Conference,” writing:

Instead, those of us who had accepted Heartland’s invitation to take part in its conference found ourselves blindsided – a mere two weeks before the conference is set to begin – by a torrent of negative press. Suddenly, we were all publicly linked to an organization that thinks it’s OK to equate people concerned about climate change with psychopaths.

As economist Ross McKitrick said in an a strongly-worded letter to Heartland yesterday:

You cannot simultaneously say that you want to promote a debate while equating the other side to terrorists and mass murderers.

Indeed….
Well here’s the problem. My name – and the name of my book – is currently on the same page of the Heartland website where the above quote appears. Without prior knowledge or informed consent, my work has been aggressively associated with this odious ad campaign.
Forget disappointment. In my view, my reputation has been harmed. And the Heartland thinks it has nothing to apologize for.

And this from a woman so far out of the mainstream that, in the same piece, she compares the work of the distinguished Nobel-prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to that of a ”pathological liar.”
Yes, Heartland’s hate speech, which they apparently still stand by, is so far beyond the pale that it harms the reputation of an extremist like Laframboise.
As Climate Central put it: “Heartland Institute Jumps the Shark.”
Finally, the Washington Post‘s Greg Sargent reported:

Congressman Sensenbrenner will not participate in the upcoming Climate Change Conference if the Heartland Institute decides to continue this ad campaign. We have contacted the Heartland Institute and voiced these same concerns to them.
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Jiddu Krishnamurti On What Can We Do In This World

First of all,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Taken by my step-dad in Auburndale...

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Quoting EugeneTillman:


Why?

When will the majority of scientists get on board with this dangerous AGW issue and relay the message to the media? I mean, it's important, right?


Link

I found a couple thousand!

I'm trying not to be provocative but you need to reconsider the media sources you listen to.
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245. Skyepony (Mod)
Our WUnderMoonies didn't disappoint bringing pictures of last night's Super Moon event.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Diageo, one of the world's largest drinks companies, has announced it will no longer fund the Heartland Institute, a rightwing US thinktank which briefly ran a billboard campaign this week comparing people concerned about climate change to mass murderers and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden, Charles Manson and Ted Kaczynski.

They follow General Motors & AT&T who are now distancing themselves from Heartland. Sign the petition here urging the other corporations to do the same.
it is finished for them they stepped over the line i wunder how the big conference will go now on the 21st of may in the windy city
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Click for text
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Quoting aspectre:
158 washingtonian115: Wow 3 out of the last 4 Alberto's have hit Florida. Florida better watch out for Alberto this year. They need the rain anyway...

Thus far Albertos have been known as rainmakers, not home breakers. With only a small bit of luck, Alberto will remain known for its gentleness (comparatively).
With all the drought going on in Florida they could use a system like Fay.Especially in northern Florida near where the Georgia boarder is.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15707
241. Skyepony (Mod)
Models pretty much close the little swirl off South Carolina off briefly as a weak low. Now is going on peak for most of them. The they beat it down to the SE with a building high, some have it hang til the next front, others shunt it farther east.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i posted this at spot 217 before the less detail one


Oops,that happens when I dont look back lol.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13288
Well the dullness continues:-
Maybe we'll get 5 years of flat calm?

France presidential election 2012

@rupertmurdoch tweeted: So Hollande wins in France, promises "new Europe". We'll see. Meanwhile Le Pen prepares for leadership of Right. Not pretty prospect.

Greece is undecided on it elections, they all want to form one big party! Which is probably what caused their financial problems in the first place and Germany has yet to come to terms with reality as they used to know it!
so much for Europe's 3 Elections in one day.

Now then back to 'That blob,!



Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1930
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237. Skyepony (Mod)
Sweet spot of low shear there..
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Meanwhile--
Google "Mitch Dobrowner photos" and check the winning images in the Sony photo competition.
Spectacular shots of Texas Twisters...
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Temps went from nearly 90 to 73 and it didn't even rain!! Good old rain cooled air!!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6439
234. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting akailm:
agree ,a spin from the passage of the front ,trough,  is one to watch



I posted the ASCAT of that a little bit ago. Broad but looked a little more spun up than depicted on the models.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Keeper,here is the more detailed discussion of the TCFA for 94S:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A
SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
i posted this at spot 217 before the less detail one
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164 stormpetrol: Interesting feature around 32N/74W

Did you know that if you google 32N/74W , you get an answer of 0.432432432 seconds per metre?

JAX is Jacksonville,Florida and MEO is RoanoakeIsland,NorthCarolina
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
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Quoting Birthmark:

You appear to have typed "Liberals" when you meant "Nature." Just thought I'd point that out.


By By JR.
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228. Skyepony (Mod)
Diageo, one of the world's largest drinks companies, has announced it will no longer fund the Heartland Institute, a rightwing US thinktank which briefly ran a billboard campaign this week comparing people concerned about climate change to mass murderers and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden, Charles Manson and Ted Kaczynski.

They follow General Motors & AT&T who are now distancing themselves from Heartland. Sign the petition here urging the other corporations to do the same.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
agree ,a spin from the passage of the front ,trough,  is one to watch
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Not much...have just begun paying very close attention to low pressure SE of the Carolinas. From what I can see in the model runs...it is possible favorable upper winds remain in the area until this Wednesday April 9 (when the upper trough over the W US comes in and dramatically shears the area). Anyone else agree/disagree?

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Uploaded by: Marta4 — Thursday April 19, 2012 — Marseille, France


Welcome to Weather Underground's World View! A weekly pictorial review of weather around the globe submitted by the WunderPhoto community.

The heart is a bloom
Shoots up through the stony ground
There's no room
No space to rent in this town

You're out of luck
And the reason that you had to care
The traffic is stuck
And you're not moving anywhere

You thought you'd found a friend
To take you out of this place
Someone you could lend a hand
In return for grace

It's a beautiful day
Sky falls, you feel like
It's a beautiful day
Don't let it get away

You're on the road
But you've got no destination
You're in the mud
In the maze of her imagination

You love this town
Even if that doesn't ring true
You've been all over
And it's been all over you

It's a beautiful day
Don't let it get away
It's a beautiful day

Touch me
Take me to that other place
Teach me
I know I'm not a hopeless case

See the world in green and blue
See China right in front of you
See the canyons broken by cloud
See the tuna fleets clearing the sea out
See the Bedouin fires at night
See the oil fields at first light
And see the bird with a leaf in her mouth
After the flood all the colors came out

It was a beautiful day
Don't let it get away
Beautiful day

Touch me
Take me to that other place
Reach me
I know I'm not a hopeless case

What you don't have you don't need it now
What you don't know you can feel it somehow
What you don't have you don't need it now
Don't need it now
Was a beautiful day
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569


94S
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:


The Liberals are pouring it down our throats and will continue to do so.

You appear to have typed "Liberals" when you meant "Nature." Just thought I'd point that out.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5184
I'm looking through a hole in the sky
I'm seeing nowhere through the eyes of a lie
I'm getting closer to the end of the line
I'm living easy where the sun doesn't shine

I'm living in a room without any view
I'm living free because the rent's never due
The synonym of all the things that I've said
Are just the riddles that are built in my head

Hole in the sky
Gateway to heaven
Window in time
Through it I fly

I've seen the stars that disappear in the sun
But shooting's easy if you've got the right gun
And even though I'm sitting waiting for Mars
I don't believe there's any future in cars

Hole in the sky
Gateway to heaven
Window in time
Through it I fly

I've watched the dogs of war enjoying their feast
I've seen the western world go down in the east
The food of love became the greed of our time
But now I'm living on the profits of crime


ha-hahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...........
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125569
Quoting owenowen:
When does the propaganda stop? This guy is well past embarrassing.


The Liberals are pouring it down our throats and will continue to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 120506120000
2012050612
-5.4 127.1
-999.9-999.9
170
-5.4 127.1
061730
1205061721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 061730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.
//
NNNN



Keeper,here is the more detailed discussion of the TCFA for 94S:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A
SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13288
A heavy rain event looks to be in order across much of the East Coast Wednesday as a strong cold front triggers widespread convection from Florida to Maine. In addition, parameters will be there for isolated embedded severe thunderstorms, especially across North Carolina and Virginia.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
TXXS24 KNES 061831
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B. 06/1801Z

C. 5.8S

D. 127.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...94S HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HRS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LLCC MAY BE FORMING BENEATH THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 7/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET = 2.5. PT = 2.5. FT
IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN FT BY 0.5
IN 6 HRS FOR WEAKER SYSTEMS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 120506120000
2012050612
-5.4 127.1
-999.9-999.9
170
-5.4 127.1
061730
1205061721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 061730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071730Z.
//
NNNN

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WTXS21 PGTW 061730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE
LOCATED TO THE EAST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY
RELAXED ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A
SOUTHWESTWARDS DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25-30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK
MOTION INTO CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071730Z.//
NNNN

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Those are strong cells for sure.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19519
Stop liking my posts and post already! lol

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch:



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 257...WW 258...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS COLD
FRONT CONTINUES SEWD AND INTERACTS WITH A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WITHIN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MULTICELLS LIKELY BEING THE PREFERRED
STORM MODE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...MEAD
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.