Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 04, 2012

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Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."


Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.


Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jamesrainier:



larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_nrc.gif







The ground clutter on radar seems especially bad tonight. Maybe it's the full moon. :)
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But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change : From Dr. Master's blog.

So, if we have enough huge natural variations, won't that inevitably lead to climate change? I do love the moving human dot thing in San Francisco though. Having lived ther for almost 30 years, that's the kind of thing people do that's both artsy and actually convinces they are engaging in some kind of constructive activity. I wonder how much carbon was spewn into the atmosphere to get the "hundreds" of blue dot people there from Marin?

On an actual weather note, the SPC seems to be really muddled up lately. They had a forecast for at least a slight chance of severe storms in Alabama and we didn't have a single storm of any kind, even with a high of 90 and dewpoints near 70. Not sure what's happening with the SPC (or the atmosphere) but they've gone from being right on the money last year to starting to really blow forecasts this year.
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Quoting BtnTx:
The moon maybe looks a little larger according to my wife and i


It was big and beautiful over Bolivar tonight. :)
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larger image http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/an im_nrc.gif





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Quoting MississippiWx:


Evening, Nigel. Well, I was trying to watch some baseball, but as IceCoast said it's storming in Denver! How are you?

I'm good
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
Quoting Birthmark:

Um, that's epically wrong. Absolute truth is just about as far as one can get from scientific knowledge.

But let's quit gabbing and take this absolute truth for a scientific spin, shall we? Is Schrodinger's cat dead or alive? Show your work if you choose either answer to the exclusion of the other.

Yeah, it's like that.

There are no absolute truths. Such truths would require absolute knowledge. That (and here's the tricksy part) includes knowledge of the future, because if we can't know that what we know will always and forever be true, then we can't possibly know if the truth is absolute.



LOL, that is saying something. You certainly solidified my confidence with that "bolded" statement.

How about some dippin dots?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/cei/graph/cei/0 1-12

Yep, NOAA is wrong, right?

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949. BtnTx
Quoting BtnTx:
The moon maybe looks a little larger according to my wife and i
I have not been on wu in awhile... Maybe I will read some of it in a few days
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Oh no.

I don't believe in some hidden "internal" or "subjective" truth.

I believe in absolute, objective truth, which all scientists also believe in absolute, objective truth.



The scientific method and logic itself are founded on the notion that absolute, objective truth must exist, and can be discovered through experiment and reason.

Weather models are based on the laws of physics, and the belief that those laws are true, to the limits of our ability to know them presently.

Now we may have partial knowledge of the absolute truth, in this case the laws of physics as it regards weather and the initial conditions, but we don't get to pick and choose what we "consider" true. If we draw a conclusion and it does not verify, then our beliefs were wrong, but the objective truth is still the truth.

There's nothing hidden, internal, or subjective about that.

It applies to everything, else you can throw away your physics textbook and your meteorology texts and models as well.

They only work because truth is absolute and objective.


Anyway, I can't even discuss matters of theology, morality, etc, with people like you, (which was where this started with Goosegirls absurd "no right or wrong God" comment,) because you can't even understand what Truth actually is, never mind recognize it if you saw it.

I'm just curious, have you ever actually passed a science or math class?

How could you not have learned anything about fundamental logic or fundamental truth and reality in all that time?


Just because YOU claim your beliefs aren't ridiculous and self-contradictory does not mean your belief or claim is true, any more than pigs can fly.

Oh, I happen to believe in the Biblical God, but I did not need the Bible to refute your misguided position, because your error is at a level of knowledge that is more fundamental than scripture, doctrine, or even theology.

Your error is at a level of fundamental reality and the nature of truth itself.

You already lost before I even started writing, that's how wrong you were.

You were just as wrong had I never said anything.

The difference now is that since I pointed out your error, you no longer have an excuse.

Reminder:

Truth cannot contradict truth.

You can't believe Jesus was a prophet and at the same time deny his most fundamental teachings. That just makes you, and all Buddhists, look like complete fools.

Now if you believe Jesus was a prophet, well, he claimed to be speaking for the ONE TRUE GOD, and he claimed to be the Only Begotten Son of this God, and indeed, the only way to be reconciled to this God.


If Jesus is a prophet, then you should believe him.

His teaching is diametrically opposed to the philosophy of buddhism and especially ridiculous subjective truth "all gods are as good as the next" crap, that goosegirl posted, and that you even tried to defend.


If you can't see why you can't have it both ways, then you are unreachable.


Anyway, Truth doesn't contradict Truth. That applies to all knowledge, whether it's about God, the weather, or physics or anything else.

One day, I hope you and goosegirl come to understand that.




(sigh) I thought I was finished, but it's getting deeper and deeper.

There is no absolute truth. Truth changes, every day, all the time. We can believe something to be true, but it doesn't have to be so just because we want it to be. Thus, truth does contradict truth, all the time.

For example- suppose your wife says you are out of milk. She believes this to be true, because she does not see it in the fridge. You believe what she has said is the truth. But all along, a little half gallon jug just sits there, behind the orange juice, and no one gets up and looks for the milk because of course it's true that there is none.

A scientist will get up and look in the fridge to see if he can prove or disprove the truth of the "no milk hypothesis." When he finds the milk.... the truth just changed! It was never absolute in the first place.

You have only proved that you can yell louder on a public forum than I can... not that I am an absurd hypocite. And with that, I am off to bed and outta here 'til morning. I will seek even deeper truths then:)
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946. BtnTx
The moon maybe looks a little larger according to my wife and i
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's really a shame, but I've never been to Colorado. What makes it even more of a shame is that I have an Aunt and Uncle who live in Loveland. Would love to watch a thunderstorm in the Rockies...wouldn't be too shabby to watch a snowstorm either. :-)


You need to visit, it's such a beautiful state! Watching a thunderstorm roll over the mountains or even the clouds from a snowstorm is a site to behold. My favorite part of the weather out here though is the strong downslope winds coming off the front range, there force can be amazing some days. I need to visit you guys down south one of these days, especially with my fascination for hurricanes since I was a little one.
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Quoting presslord:
Truth may indeed be objectively absolute...but human perception is always subjective....therefore, as most people are human, absolute truth is irrelevant...

If a tree falls in the forest and know one hears it.......Who gives a damn?
The Butterfly.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I was just in Atlanta last weekend watching them play. Have a family member who lives in Dallas, GA (right outside of Atlanta) and stayed with her a few nights.


ewwww. Dallas,GA.
Middle of nowhere. :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yeahh.
GO BRAVES!!


I was just in Atlanta last weekend watching them play. Have a family member who lives in Dallas, GA (right outside of Atlanta) and stayed with her a few nights.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I know. Those storms cut me off while trying to watch my beloved Braves play the Rockies. Ugh!


yeahh.
GO BRAVES!!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
937. skook
Quoting Krycek1984:


FYI, each sentence doesn't need its own paragraph.


Every

word

needs

a

new

line

though

I've

been

told.
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Quoting IceCoast:


Yup I was watching the game to, what a bummer it's been a good one. Getting some tiny hail now. Hopefully it passes quick although I am enjoying the storm by the window.


It's really a shame, but I've never been to Colorado. What makes it even more of a shame is that I have an Aunt and Uncle who live in Loveland. Would love to watch a thunderstorm in the Rockies...wouldn't be too shabby to watch a snowstorm either. :-)
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oh the irony of the words storm watch in that video
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Quoting nigel20:

What's up Mississippi?


Evening, Nigel. Well, I was trying to watch some baseball, but as IceCoast said it's storming in Denver! How are you?
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Quoting Krycek1984:


Are you a lawyer? Because that is the type of answer/response I'd expect from a lawyer.

A lawyer saying something for free? That'll be the day!

No, I'm not.
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want to laugh so hard WxGeekVa but did that really happen? Oh nos!!!!!!!!!!!
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1028 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
MURRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWESTERN NOBLES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
PIPESTONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
NORTHERN ROCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
NORTHERN MINNEHAHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
MOODY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1026 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING MULTIPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WALNUT
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HOLLAND TO EGAN TO WENTWORTH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM EGAN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO RUTHTON
MINNESOTA...TO TRACY MINNESOTA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE LARGE
HAIL...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS ARE A GREATER THREAT IN AREAS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
COLMAN AND BALTIC AROUND 1040 PM CDT...
DELL RAPIDS AROUND 1045 PM CDT...
RUTHTON...TYLER AND HOLLAND AROUND 1050 PM CDT...
TRENT AND FLORENCE AROUND 1055 PM CDT...
EGAN AROUND 1100 PM CDT...
FLANDREAU AROUND 1105 PM CDT...
BALATON AND CURRENT LAKE AROUND 1115 PM CDT...
JASPER AROUND 1120 PM CDT...

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
GARVIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE
STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...
INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INTO
AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR A CLOSET...OR INTO A
BASEMENT.
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Quoting Birthmark:

Are you absolutely sure of that?


Are you a lawyer? Because that is the type of answer/response I'd expect from a lawyer.
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Speaking of hurricane season... how NOT to report during a hurricane:

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Had a friend in 98 whose neighborhood got hit by a low end tornado was a jumper, lots of trees half ripped off. He had a 60 foot oak that used to lean to the north it now leans to the south. It took another 30 footer down in the back yard which hit the house. Was a three mile track. NOAA sent out their observers and they talked with him. Interesting track to walk ten years after the fact, you can still see where it went if you know where to look. Still several trees left that one side is completely gone.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I know. Those storms cut me off while trying to watch my beloved Braves play the Rockies. Ugh!


Yup I was watching the game to, what a bummer it's been a good one. Getting some tiny hail now. Hopefully it passes quick although I am enjoying the storm by the window.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Has anyone here ever submitted a storm report to the NWS? We had some incredible summer-like thunderstorms develop right over my house today. It rained 3 inches in an hour and we had about 15 minutes of pea-size hail. I submitted a report, about 2 hours ago but have yet to receive any notification that my report was read. Just wondering how seriously, if at all, the NWS offices take general public reports.

What's up Mississippi?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
if you give them damage reports they will read it and may come out even to verify if there's any credible proof that a tornado may have touched down. If they get reports from the public in the warned area in a cluster they know it's verifiable too.
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"no" one...I meant "no" one...not "know" one...It's late...I'm old...deal with it...
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Quoting presslord:
Truth may indeed be objectively absolute...but human perception is always subjective....therefore, as most people are human, absolute truth is irrelevant...

If a tree falls in the forest and know one hears it.......Who gives a damn?

I can answer that one from experience: The first one down the dirt road where it fell and who then has to move it. It's the neighborly thing to do. :)
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Has anyone here ever submitted a storm report to the NWS? We had some incredible summer-like thunderstorms develop right over my house today. It rained 3 inches in an hour and we had about 15 minutes of pea-size hail. I submitted a report about 2 hours ago, but have yet to receive any notification that my report was read. Just wondering how seriously, if at all, the NWS offices take general public reports.
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Quoting IceCoast:
Good looking thunderstorm is rolling off the foothills into Denver right now. Giving off one heck of a light show from my place right now.



Yeah, I know. Those storms cut me off while trying to watch my beloved Braves play the Rockies. Ugh!
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Hurricane Ike before and after photos
Link
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
916 presslord: If a tree falls in the forest and know one hears it... Who gives a damn?

The Shadow noes...
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Good looking thunderstorm is rolling off the foothills into Denver right now. Giving off one heck of a light show from my place right now.

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Oh, and internal truths are the truths one holds that have no effect on anyone else. They are perfectly harmless to anyone except possibly the holder of those truths if they are unwise enough to apply their internal truths to anything outside of themselves without thoroughly testing those ideas.
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Truth may indeed be objectively absolute...but human perception is always subjective....therefore, as most people are human, absolute truth is irrelevant...

If a tree falls in the forest and know one hears it.......Who gives a damn?
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Quoting Krycek1984:


FYI, each sentence doesn't need its own paragraph.

Are you absolutely sure of that?
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Oh no.

I don't believe in some hidden "internal" or "subjective" truth.

I believe in absolute, objective truth, which all scientists also believe in absolute, objective truth.



The scientific method and logic itself are founded on the notion that absolute, objective truth must exist, and can be discovered through experiment and reason.

Weather models are based on the laws of physics, and the belief that those laws are true, to the limits of our ability to know them presently.

Now we may have partial knowledge of the absolute truth, in this case the laws of physics as it regards weather and the initial conditions, but we don't get to pick and choose what we "consider" true. If we draw a conclusion and it does not verify, then our beliefs were wrong, but the objective truth is still the truth.

There's nothing hidden, internal, or subjective about that.

It applies to everything, else you can throw away your physics textbook and your meteorology texts and models as well.

They only work because truth is absolute and objective.

Um, that's epically wrong. Absolute truth is just about as far as one can get from scientific knowledge.

But let's quit gabbing and take this absolute truth for a scientific spin, shall we? Is Schrodinger's cat dead or alive? Show your work if you choose either answer to the exclusion of the other.

Yeah, it's like that.

There are no absolute truths. Such truths would require absolute knowledge. That (and here's the tricksy part) includes knowledge of the future, because if we can't know that what we know will always and forever be true, then we can't possibly know if the truth is absolute.
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nite all.
Enjoy the moon
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Full watch page will be available shortly. Please check back soon.

WOUS64 KWNS 060300
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 254 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

IAC021-035-041-059-093-133-141-143-149-167-193-061 000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0254.120506T0305Z-120506T1000Z/

IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY
DICKINSON IDA MONONA
O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH
SIOUX WOODBURY


MNC033-063-083-101-105-061000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0254.120506T0305Z-120506T1000Z/

MN
. MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COTTONWOOD JACKSON LYON
MURRAY NOBLES


NEC001-003-011-019-021-023-027-037-039-041-043-047 -051-053-063-
071-073-077-079-081-089-093-099-107-111-115-119-12 1-125-137-139-
141-143-163-167-173-175-179-183-061000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0254.120506T0305Z-120506T1000Z/

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ANTELOPE BOONE
BUFFALO BURT BUTLER
CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
CUSTER DAKOTA DAWSON
DIXON DODGE FRONTIER
GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY
HALL HAMILTON HOLT
HOWARD KEARNEY KNOX
LINCOLN LOUP MADISON
MERRICK NANCE PHELPS
PIERCE PLATTE POLK
SHERMAN STANTON THURSTON
VALLEY WAYNE WHEELER


SDC009-027-127-135-061000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0254.120506T0305Z-120506T1000Z/

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BON HOMME CLAY UNION
YANKTON


ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX...GID...



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting RTSplayer:


Oh no.

I don't believe in some hidden "internal" or "subjective" truth.

I believe in absolute, objective truth, which all scientists also believe in absolute, objective truth.



The scientific method and logic itself are founded on the notion that absolute, objective truth must exist, and can be discovered through experiment and reason.

Weather models are based on the laws of physics, and the belief that those laws are true, to the limits of our ability to know them presently.

Now we may have partial knowledge of the absolute truth, in this case the laws of physics as it regards weather and the initial conditions, but we don't get to pick and choose what we "consider" true. If we draw a conclusion and it does not verify, then our beliefs were wrong, but the objective truth is still the truth.

There's nothing hidden, internal, or subjective about that.

It applies to everything, else you can throw away your physics textbook and your meteorology texts and models as well.

They only work because truth is absolute and objective.


FYI, each sentence doesn't need its own paragraph.
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888 aspectre: ...~500,000,000 Chinese wouldn't have to breathe (*) US industrial waste.
891 bappit: Why only 500,000,000 Chinese?

Sharing the credits: Australia exports a LOT of coal to China; and the EuropeanUnion imports a LOT of China's industrial output.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting sunlinepr:


That video would have been much better if the captions/descriptions would have contained proper grammar/syntax...it's hard to take it seriously because of those errors.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


For reasons unknown, average I.Q. improves by about 3 points per decade, so the tests are constantly re-normalized such that 100 is considered average.

It's possible it is an artifact of an increase in general knowledge and problem solving as knowledge and technology rose over the centuries, which is difficult to not affect any standardized test.


"Average" in reality is not very common. My buddy once told me "nobody is normal". How true.

One person can excel in a given area, seemingly effortlessly, while another struggles, and then for a second subject it is the exact opposite.


This is similar to the well known "80-20 rule".

About 20 percent of people are a heck of a lot better than the other 80 percent, for just about anything you can measure.


It's also a historical fact that most of science was discovered by a small handful of people relative to the population.

It's shocking how much was done by Mendelev, Newton and Groethe, and then along came Einstein, etc.

The point is, compared to them, everyone else was idiots.

Few people alive today are actually equally or more educated than any of those guys, and I'm definitely not one of them, even though I'm a lifetime learner.


This is why mean, median, and mode are not the end all be all. Standard deviation and variance come into play when doing true statistical analysis as well as skewed curves. Most real world applications of statistics do not fall under the bell curve.
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Quoting Birthmark:

The truth is that that is your truth. It is neither factual nor comprehensive. Apparently, it is useful to you, which is fine. But you must understand that it is your internal truth and applies to no one else.


Oh no.

I don't believe in some hidden "internal" or "subjective" truth.

I believe in absolute, objective truth, which all scientists also believe in absolute, objective truth.



The scientific method and logic itself are founded on the notion that absolute, objective truth must exist, and can be discovered through experiment and reason.

Weather models are based on the laws of physics, and the belief that those laws are true, to the limits of our ability to know them presently.

Now we may have partial knowledge of the absolute truth, in this case the laws of physics as it regards weather and the initial conditions, but we don't get to pick and choose what we "consider" true. If we draw a conclusion and it does not verify, then our beliefs were wrong, but the objective truth is still the truth.

There's nothing hidden, internal, or subjective about that.

It applies to everything, else you can throw away your physics textbook and your meteorology texts and models as well.

They only work because truth is absolute and objective.


Anyway, I can't even discuss matters of theology, morality, etc, with people like you, (which was where this started with Goosegirls absurd "no right or wrong God" comment,) because you can't even understand what Truth actually is, never mind recognize it if you saw it.

I'm just curious, have you ever actually passed a science or math class?

How could you not have learned anything about fundamental logic or fundamental truth and reality in all that time?


Just because YOU claim your beliefs aren't ridiculous and self-contradictory does not mean your belief or claim is true, any more than pigs can fly.

Oh, I happen to believe in the Biblical God, but I did not need the Bible to refute your misguided position, because your error is at a level of knowledge that is more fundamental than scripture, doctrine, or even theology.

Your error is at a level of fundamental reality and the nature of truth itself.

You already lost before I even started writing, that's how wrong you were.

You were just as wrong had I never said anything.

The difference now is that since I pointed out your error, you no longer have an excuse.

Reminder:

Truth cannot contradict truth.

You can't believe Jesus was a prophet and at the same time deny his most fundamental teachings. That just makes you, and all Buddhists, look like complete fools.

Now if you believe Jesus was a prophet, well, he claimed to be speaking for the ONE TRUE GOD, and he claimed to be the Only Begotten Son of this God, and indeed, the only way to be reconciled to this God.


If Jesus is a prophet, then you should believe him.

His teaching is diametrically opposed to the philosophy of buddhism and especially ridiculous subjective truth "all gods are as good as the next" crap, that goosegirl posted, and that you even tried to defend.


If you can't see why you can't have it both ways, then you are unreachable.


Anyway, Truth doesn't contradict Truth. That applies to all knowledge, whether it's about God, the weather, or physics or anything else.

One day, I hope you and goosegirl come to understand that.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We should be tracking Aletta pretty soon...probably in the May 15-25 timeframe.

I agree with that time line. The eastern pacific is already looking pretty active
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
Quoting ncstorm:


Hey Nigel..its quieted down now..we all good over here

Ok, good to hear
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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