Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 04, 2012

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Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."


Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.


Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You're a good mama. It can't be easy for either of you. Tell her to hang in there.


Thanks, I will :)
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Quoting BobWallace:


Who is going to pay for all our coastal cities which will either need to be protected by massive sea walls or relocated to higher ground?



Insurance companies
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I would suggest that you look up each of the different temperature records if you are interested in their source. Most of them are satellite-derived which would not have issues with the urban heat island effect (as you implied).

So, what you are saying is that your belief is faith-based in nature, not scientific? Un-wavering beliefs regardless of facts to the contrary is one of the hallmarks of bigotry.


Temperature reconstructions exist from periods before human observations began. They are actual vital to much of our current understanding of physics, climate, and climate change. This is something that you could easily look up.

Doing these things (aka "fact checking" and/or "learning") would require an effort on your part, which would probably violate your personal "I will never believe" clause in a very severe way.


as a suggestion, maybe he is saying that we dont know EXACT daily temperatures or monthly for that matter. We have an idea over years
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting goosegirl1:


I hope you find people who will truly love you, no matter who you were born to be. I grew up during the eighties, and lost a few close guy friends to AIDS in the time before there was any idea of cause or treatment- and one of the families still insists my friend died from a "blood disorder." There is so much shame attached to a medical disorder that the families can't even speak of it. Partly due to this experience, I raised my daughter to be tolerant, peaceful and loving to everyone. This, of course, has resulted in her being physically attacked and bullied in school because she supports same-sex marriage and equality for all. We had to enroll her in a martial arts class so she could be safe at school- a sad situation for a 5 foot, 110 pound teenager.


sad situation, unfortunately i get bullied occasionally because im so big but at least with me i can protecct myself(6 foot 3 and 185, i just made fourteen)







good morning
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Quoting Chucktown:


You shouldn't fall asleep so early next time Press. Sorry, I do my best work after the sun goes down.

Hey watch out later, looks like a stormy Saturday evening here in the Lowcountry. Wouldn't be surprised to see a T-Storm Watch at some point. Morning sounding at CHS is pretty impressive, especially with downslope NW flow and compressional heating at the surface ahead of the front. Nice cold pocket setting up aloft later this evening, could be some big hail. The ladies on Folly won't like that.



Thanks for the heads up....we're goin' to a big out door party on Edisto this afternoon....will take my foul weather gear...
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Quoting DoctorDave1:


Exactly. If there was a real AGW problem, the governments of the world would be out there with massive tree planting and preservation programs. The fact that they are not doing that says a lot about how they REALLY perceive a global warming threat due to CO2.


Governments are already acting. Have you been keeping up with the US military lately on how they are preparing for climate change's affects?

This comment also suggests a substantial naivety... it assumes that our government will just do the right thing if there is a threat. Of course we've known about the threat for decades now, and certain governments deliberately suppressed the evidence and changed the wording to keep it from being an issue. And when you have campaign donors with deep pockets that might be threatened by the idea of slightly less-deep pockets...
Quoting goosegirl1:

We live 120 miles from DC, but on the other side of the moon as far as culture goes. She identifies herself as staight and dates guys, but because she feels so strongly that everyone should be allowed to be happy and express personal freedom she is condemned by some of her peers


Oh, so you guys live in Real America. (c)(tm)
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Quoting Chucktown:
Really Nea, that graph shows a +.03 temp anamoly over the last 30 years. Please tell me that there is better evidence of AGW than a graph like that. Where did the temperature data come from? Was it from rural locations, urban heat island locations, airports, someone's backyard?


I would suggest that you look up each of the different temperature records if you are interested in their source. Most of them are satellite-derived which would not have issues with the urban heat island effect (as you implied).
Quoting Chucktown:

I refuse to believe, nor will I ever believe in my lifetime that man is causing the Earth to warm.


So, what you are saying is that your belief is faith-based in nature, not scientific? Un-wavering beliefs regardless of facts to the contrary is one of the hallmarks of bigotry.
Quoting Chucktown:

I know its not the "in crowd" belief on this blog, but until I see an anomaly graph of what happened on this Earth before daily highs and lows were taken, there just isn't enough info to prove it.



Temperature reconstructions exist from periods before human observations began. They are actual vital to much of our current understanding of physics, climate, and climate change. This is something that you could easily look up.

Doing these things (aka "fact checking" and/or "learning") would require an effort on your part, which would probably violate your personal "I will never believe" clause in a very severe way.
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Quoting presslord:


I caught you alone in the bedroom with my wife again the other night...


You shouldn't fall asleep so early next time Press. Sorry, I do my best work after the sun goes down.

Hey watch out later, looks like a stormy Saturday evening here in the Lowcountry. Wouldn't be surprised to see a T-Storm Watch at some point. Morning sounding at CHS is pretty impressive, especially with downslope NW flow and compressional heating at the surface ahead of the front. Nice cold pocket setting up aloft later this evening, could be some big hail. The ladies on Folly won't like that.

Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1760
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Although i dont believe you should support same-sex marriage etc, no one should be bullied over it.
Hope things get better for you daughter.


Yes, because we all know that discrimination is always handled peacefully, reasonably, and logically. I mean, just look how peaceful and reasonable everyone was over inter-racial marriages a few decades back.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting MahFL:


Who is going to pay for all those trees to be planted ?


Who is going to pay for all our coastal cities which will either need to be protected by massive sea walls or relocated to higher ground?

Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Although i dont believe you should support same-sex marriage etc, no one should be bullied over it.
Hope things get better for you daughter.

Unfortunately the people that have taught you to think that way and hold that view the strongest have helped create the climate where bully is nothing but the natural effect. If you stigmatize something enough, kids will pick up on it, they will mimic adults and ridicule the "different" ones - sometimes to a fatal extent.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Really Nea, that graph shows a +.03 temp anamoly over the last 30 years. Please tell me that there is better evidence of AGW than a graph like that. Where did the temperature data come from? Was it from rural locations, urban heat island locations, airports, someone's backyard? I refuse to believe, nor will I ever believe in my lifetime that man is causing the Earth to warm. I know its not the "in crowd" belief on this blog, but until I see an anomaly graph of what happened on this Earth before daily highs and lows were taken, there just isn't enough info to prove it.

And the "connecting the dots" issue between extreme weather and climate change, I think a lot has to do with today's technology. Between iphones, blackberries, Facebook, Twitter and whatever other sorts of media platforms there are out there, every single weather event now is documented, especially the extreme ones. Why is it that in just the last few years, we (humans) have all of a sudden noticed so much extreme weather. I highly doubt that in 1624 there weren't a few extreme weather events. What about in 1272, did we have a Halloween Snowmageddon in the northeast. I don't know.



I caught you alone in the bedroom with my wife again the other night...
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really dont worry about climate change it could all be a "crock of bull" im more worried we might get big one making landfall here in fl. this summer
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Quoting Neapolitan:
It seems like you're missing most of the basics of the carbon cycle. See, there's always been a more or less even balance between the amount of CO2 emitted and the amount absorbed. Over the past 150 years or so, we (humans) have seriously upset that balance by emitting tens of billions of tons more CO2 into the environment each year than those natural processes are capable of handling. That CO2 doesn't go away; it accumulates. And as it accumulates, it causes heating--heating which, by the way, causes even more water vapor to be in the air, yet another feedback effect adding to the warmth.

So far as "global temps being flat for 10 years", that's not quite so. Several peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that, once the effects of natural variations are taken out, CO2-induced warming has continued to increase. This first graph shows the departure from global average temperature since 1979 using the raw data of the 3 surface temperature records (GISS, NCDC, CRU) and the two satellite records (RSS, UAH) (courtesy ClimateProgress.org and the Washington Post):

Hot, hot, hot

...and this second shows the true warming signal:

Hot, hot, hot

You'll doubtless notice the lack of any "being flat".

AGW is real, it's happening, it's worsening, and we humans are likely mostly to blame. Those four facts are no longer even debated among credible scientists.


Really Nea, that graph shows a +.03 temp anamoly over the last 30 years. Please tell me that there is better evidence of AGW than a graph like that. Where did the temperature data come from? Was it from rural locations, urban heat island locations, airports, someone's backyard? I refuse to believe, nor will I ever believe in my lifetime that man is causing the Earth to warm. I know its not the "in crowd" belief on this blog, but until I see an anomaly graph of what happened on this Earth before daily highs and lows were taken, there just isn't enough info to prove it.

And the "connecting the dots" issue between extreme weather and climate change, I think a lot has to do with today's technology. Between iphones, blackberries, Facebook, Twitter and whatever other sorts of media platforms there are out there, every single weather event now is documented, especially the extreme ones. Why is it that in just the last few years, we (humans) have all of a sudden noticed so much extreme weather. I highly doubt that in 1624 there weren't a few extreme weather events. What about in 1272, did we have a Halloween Snowmageddon in the northeast. I don't know.

Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1760
Quoting Neapolitan:
It seems like you're missing most of the basics of the carbon cycle. See, there's always been a more or less even balance between the amount of CO2 emitted and the amount absorbed. Over the past 150 years or so, we (humans) have seriously upset that balance by emitting tens of billions of tons more CO2 into the environment each year than those natural processes are capable of handling. That CO2 doesn't go away; it accumulates. And as it accumulates, it causes heating--heating which, by the way, causes even more water vapor to be in the air, yet another feedback effect adding to the warmth.

So far as "global temps being flat for 10 years", that's not quite so. Several peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that, once the effects of natural variations are taken out, CO2-induced warming has continued to increase. This first graph shows the departure from global average temperature since 1979 using the raw data of the 3 surface temperature records (GISS, NCDC, CRU) and the two satellite records (RSS, UAH) (courtesy ClimateProgress.org and the Washington Post):

Hot, hot, hot

...and this second shows the true warming signal:

Hot, hot, hot

You'll doubtless notice the lack of any "being flat".

AGW is real, it's happening, it's worsening, and we humans are likely mostly to blame. Those four facts are no longer even debated among credible scientists.

And that's not even counting the fact that the atmosphere is smallest heat reservoir among the air, ice, and oceans. The heat energy from the enhanced greenhouse affect has predominantly gone to the oceans, and a substantial amount has also gone into the ice for warming/melting. The amounts of energy required to change the oceans the way we have measured is almost non comprehendable compared to "heat" the way humans understand.
Quoting EugeneTillman:



Try to refrain from posting ClimateProgress on a science blog. Thanks.

Climate Progress is written by a respected physicist and climate scientist. It is one thing to disagree with him when he delves into politics, but his science (and his graphs of said science) are sound.
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490. MahFL
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Exactly. If there was a real AGW problem, the governments of the world would be out there with massive tree planting and preservation programs. The fact that they are not doing that says a lot about how they REALLY perceive a global warming threat due to CO2.


Who is going to pay for all those trees to be planted ?
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Quoting DoctorDave1:
"the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather."

Of course it must, because you said so.

The CO2 level has at most increased by 0.005 % of the atmosphere due to humans. Water vapor averages 1.8% of the atmosphere and it is a much more effective heat-trapping gas than CO2. Global temperatures have at best been flat for the last 10 years while CO2 levels have continued to increase. What part of AGW logic am I missing?


Pretty much all of it.

It's not the amount of something that is important, but the effects. For example, it takes a very small amount of ricin to kill you. Likewise, it was determined back in the 80's that it only takes a small amount of CFCs to cause a lot of damage to the ozone layer.

Couple the physical properties of CO2 with it's atmospheric lifetime and you have an increasingly thick long lived thermal blanket, as opposed to water vapor which is extremely short-lived.

That is to say, the normal background concentrations of GHGs aren't the problem. It's the increase in GHGs that are the problem.

You're also looking at 10 years of data, which is not climatologically significant. Time periods that short are very much dominated by weather. Going back through the temperature record you can choose many ten year periods that show no rise, or even a decrease in temperature. This is why climatological comparisons are done with multi-decadal data and averages.

There are many sites available that take climate science results and synthesize it into language and concepts easy to understand. Even the IPCC report does a good job of doing this. I would suggest you research the topic a little more, as your questions and concerns have been addressed ad nauseum.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1477
Quoting DoctorDave1:
Of course it must, because you said so.

No, science says so.
Quoting DoctorDave1:
The CO2 level has at most increased by 0.005 % of the atmosphere due to humans.

Incorrect.
Quoting DoctorDave1:
Water vapor averages 1.8% of the atmosphere and it is a much more effective heat-trapping gas than CO2.

Sounds like this might be correct.
Quoting DoctorDave1:

Global temperatures have at best been flat for the last 10 years while CO2 levels have continued to increase.

1) incorrect 2) correct (although "accelerate" is better)
Quoting DoctorDave1:

What part of AGW logic am I missing?


The scientific logic you are missing is... well... most of it. Start with getting the basic information correct, then logic might follow.
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487. MahFL
Quoting Tribucanes:
we must not forget that sheep are the dirtiest, dumbest, helpless little things; but they're also very valuable for their coats and meat. Even the sheep need saving for they are valuable.


You don't eat adult sheep, they are used for breeding and wool. It's the little lambs that are so tasty.
Mint sauce !
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486. MahFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


.... I told him I was an atheist.



Definitely a bad idea to do that in the south.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i liked ryan use to use and view his site at fla state all the time more so during tropical season


Graphics are great and I have used them before as well; unfortunately at face value it really seems like he turned into a political ideologue at the expense of his science roots. The few times I've seen him quoted or read his notes, it seems like he started with his rather strong political views, then found the science he wanted to find to back it up.
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Interesting size comparison:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
HANSON COUNTY UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 849 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO HEN
EGG SIZE
. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FULTON...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
MITCHELL...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
FULTON AND ALEXANDRIA AROUND 855 AM CDT...
FARMER AROUND 905 AM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9790 4385 9787 4385 9761 4361 9761
4362 9797 4375 9797 4385 9797 4385 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 263DEG 33KT 4374 9787
WIND...HAIL <58MPH 2.00IN

$$

CJ
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Good morning.

Just for future reference...
The today's and yesterday's will always rollover.
e.g.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.g if

If you change the url to
...climo/reports/20120504_rpts.gif and

for the text link, ...20120504_rpts.html

you'll always get that page. Even works with "today" reports and image will update as reports are added.

Oh ok... Thanks!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Hopefully the weather holds up today I have to run some errands and then the kids want to go see the avengers.So I'm going to have a busy day.I'm glad we've been getting rain almost everyday now.That should keep a hold on the drought.
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Link
Quoting LargoFl:
tree's and Global Warming, excellent site here with lots of Info..plant a tree today, I myself have planted 5 over the years ..................Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
tree's and Global Warming, excellent site here with lots of Info..plant a tree today, I myself have planted 5 over the years ..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, actually, politicians--who, after all, run government--are swayed by money. And the amount of money flowing in from those wishing to hide the truth about AGW is astonishing. (See: James Inhofe, et al.)

Dirty Energy Money Campaign
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Quoting KoritheMan:


There are still many forms of stigma associated with certain positions/sincerely held beliefs in my area of the south. I'm an atheist and a bisexual, neither of which, particularly when combined, would go over well with 95% of the people here. In fact, although I lack direct evidence, I think the reason one of my coworkers has been treating me poorly is because I told him I was an atheist (I wasn't trying to instigate anything, but we had been talking about religion long before that, and I got fed up with his preaching, no matter how well-intentioned). I've even had family and friends delete me from their Facebook.

Perhaps one day. Just maybe.


Unfortunately that is how it goes sometimes. Some freedom-loving, patriotic folk see an atheist as an enemy; not someone who is merely using their freedom in a different way. I've found many times that those preaching the loudest are usually are with the worst ethics/morals.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
All humans deserve to be treated equally; the "different" ones deserve no punishment whatsoever, whether that's bullying or simply fewer rights than everyone else.


i didnt say they deserved fewer rights or bullying, i said the opposite.
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Quoting DoctorDave1:


Exactly. If there was a real AGW problem, the governments of the world would be out there with massive tree planting and preservation programs. The fact that they are not doing that says a lot about how they REALLY perceive a global warming threat due to CO2.

My country is doing something, they call it "Carbon Tax" We've been told it will be spent on finding and developing other sources of energy yet it's actually going into a big pot at the UN which they will distribute to the poorer nations of the world and more than likely corrupt nations. So my tax $$$ will help fill a corrupt countries coffers while the people starve.
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Quoting DoctorDave1:


Exactly. If there was a real AGW problem, the governments of the world would be out there with massive tree planting and preservation programs. The fact that they are not doing that says a lot about how they REALLY perceive a global warming threat due to CO2.
Well, actually, politicians--who, after all, run government--are swayed by money. And the amount of money flowing in from those wishing to hide the truth about AGW is astonishing. (See: James Inhofe, et al.)

That being said, certain segments of the US government--the military, for instance--are keenly aware of the threats (and, yes, the opportunities) presented by AGW, and they are working diligently--frantically, even--to stay ahead of the curve.

Too, many of the "governments of the world" are well aware of the issue, and are working toward mitigation and preparation. The US--led by a fossil fuel-funded Right wing--is the largest nation that's sort of sitting back on its heels.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Quoting EugeneTillman:



Try to refrain from posting ClimateProgress on a science blog. Thanks.
Sorry, Cat5, but you're off base on this one. See, the text was from ClimateProgress.org, and the graphics were from the Washington Post. But both of those sources drew their data from a peer-reviewed article titled Global Temperature Evolution 1979-2010. In other words, I didn't post opinion, but rather scientific data. Big difference, wouldn't you say?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Quoting LargoFl:
do not forget the massive tree cutting down thats been happening all the way around the world for so many purposes, that also adds to the co2..maybe even more than the cars and trucks of the world..tree's are our best defense, and we cut them down gladly..geez


Exactly. If there was a real AGW problem, the governments of the world would be out there with massive tree planting and preservation programs. The fact that they are not doing that says a lot about how they REALLY perceive a global warming threat due to CO2.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The SPC now has a hatched area for the 10% risk for today

Also, if you want your outlook graphics to remain static - for the time they were issued - you can click to the SPC outlook page and go to the search at the bottom, put in the date, and get the outlooks issued on current day, e.g. 20120505, and the net address will be static. Options to superimpose population, counties, etc on the risk areas is only available when you are on the current day page and not in the archive. Also, getting the web address for the 8 pm central outlook requires putting in the tomorrow date, as it is issued at 0100 gmt.

(Just FYI, for anyone who's interested.)
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Quoting Bardeyes:


It sounds like your daughter is very lucky to have a mother like you.


You guys are too sweet, thank you :)
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Quoting Xandra:
From the description of the video:

DemocracyNow.org - We look at one of the largest and most powerful corporations in the world: Exxon Mobil. Last week, the corporate giant reported it earned $9.5 billion in profits in the first three months of this year -- or almost $104 million per day. We speak with Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Steve Coll who pulls back the curtain on Exxon Mobil in his exhaustive new book, "Private Empire: Exxon Mobil and American Power." "Exxon Mobil really sees itself as an independent sovereign in the world, almost the equivalent of a state," Coll says. "They really are one of the most closed corporations headquartered in the United States."
Just $104,000,000 each day in profit? Why, that's just $72,000 in profit a minute! Barely a pittance! And yet some people really believe that ExxonMobil would lie and manipulate and deceive just to keep that cash firehose running full blast?! Ha! How silly!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Although i dont believe you should support same-sex marriage etc, no one should be bullied over it.
All humans deserve to be treated equally; the "different" ones deserve no punishment whatsoever, whether that's bullying or simply fewer rights than everyone else.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Although i dont believe you should support same-sex marriage etc, no one should be bullied over it.
Hope things get better for you daughter.


It's a long, slow battle, but she will receive a hard-earned black belt next month, and most of the bullies know to leave her alone. Martial arts training teaches you to be confident you can handle a situation, which means there are generally less of them to begin with :) We live 120 miles from DC, but on the other side of the moon as far as culture goes. She identifies herself as staight and dates guys, but because she feels so strongly that everyone should be allowed to be happy and express personal freedom she is condemned by some of her peers.

If you can't tell already, I am so proud of her for sticking to her principles.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, mine updated to show today... It looks kind of stupid now since there's only like one report so far today :)
Good morning.

Just for future reference...
The today's and yesterday's will always rollover.
e.g.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.g if

If you change the url to
...climo/reports/20120504_rpts.gif and

for the text link, ...20120504_rpts.html

you'll always get that page. Even works with "today" reports and image will update as reports are added.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


I hope you find people who will truly love you, no matter who you were born to be. I grew up during the eighties, and lost a few close guy friends to AIDS in the time before there was any idea of cause or treatment- and one of the families still insists my friend died from a "blood disorder." There is so much shame attached to a medical disorder that the families can't even speak of it. Partly due to this experience, I raised my daughter to be tolerant, peaceful and loving to everyone. This, of course, has resulted in her being physically attacked and bullied in school because she supports same-sex marriage and equality for all. We had to enroll her in a martial arts class so she could be safe at school- a sad situation for a 5 foot, 110 pound teenager.


It sounds like your daughter is very lucky to have a mother like you.
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One Dollar In, Fifty-Nine Out



From the description of the video:

DemocracyNow.org - We look at one of the largest and most powerful corporations in the world: Exxon Mobil. Last week, the corporate giant reported it earned $9.5 billion in profits in the first three months of this year -- or almost $104 million per day. We speak with Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Steve Coll who pulls back the curtain on Exxon Mobil in his exhaustive new book, "Private Empire: Exxon Mobil and American Power." "Exxon Mobil really sees itself as an independent sovereign in the world, almost the equivalent of a state," Coll says. "They really are one of the most closed corporations headquartered in the United States."
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The SPC now has a hatched area for the 10% risk for today

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting goosegirl1:


I hope you find people who will truly love you, no matter who you were born to be. I grew up during the eighties, and lost a few close guy friends to AIDS in the time before there was any idea of cause or treatment- and one of the families still insists my friend died from a "blood disorder." There is so much shame attached to a medical disorder that the families can't even speak of it. Partly due to this experience, I raised my daughter to be tolerant, peaceful and loving to everyone. This, of course, has resulted in her being physically attacked and bullied in school because she supports same-sex marriage and equality for all. We had to enroll her in a martial arts class so she could be safe at school- a sad situation for a 5 foot, 110 pound teenager.


Although i dont believe you should support same-sex marriage etc, no one should be bullied over it.
Hope things get better for you daughter.
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Quoting goosegirl1:


I hope you find people who will truly love you, no matter who you were born to be. I grew up during the eighties, and lost a few close guy friends to AIDS in the time before there was any idea of cause or treatment- and one of the families still insists my friend died from a "blood disorder." There is so much shame attached to a medical disorder that the families can't even speak of it. Partly due to this experience, I raised my daughter to be tolerant, peaceful and loving to everyone. This, of course, has resulted in her being physically attacked and bullied in school because she supports same-sex marriage and equality for all. We had to enroll her in a martial arts class so she could be safe at school- a sad situation for a 5 foot, 110 pound teenager.


You're a good mama. It can't be easy for either of you. Tell her to hang in there.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Is this the one you meant to post?


Yeah, mine updated to show today... It looks kind of stupid now since there's only like one report so far today :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

The three day rainfall total at the Nassau airport for last Saturday, Sunday and Monday was 7.05 inches. That's pretty remarkable for April.

I was in Nassau from Friday evening to Monday morning, so I was able to "enjoy" the lovely weather. Thanks... ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Quoting DoctorDave1:
"the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather."

Of course it must, because you said so.

The CO2 level has at most increased by 0.005 % of the atmosphere due to humans. Water vapor averages 1.8% of the atmosphere and it is a much more effective heat-trapping gas than CO2. Global temperatures have at best been flat for the last 10 years while CO2 levels have continued to increase. What part of AGW logic am I missing?
It seems like you're missing most of the basics of the carbon cycle. See, there's always been a more or less even balance between the amount of CO2 emitted and the amount absorbed. Over the past 150 years or so, we (humans) have seriously upset that balance by emitting tens of billions of tons more CO2 into the environment each year than those natural processes are capable of handling. That CO2 doesn't go away; it accumulates. And as it accumulates, it causes heating--heating which, by the way, causes even more water vapor to be in the air, yet another feedback effect adding to the warmth.

So far as "global temps being flat for 10 years", that's not quite so. Several peer-reviewed studies have demonstrated that, once the effects of natural variations are taken out, CO2-induced warming has continued to increase. This first graph shows the departure from global average temperature since 1979 using the raw data of the 3 surface temperature records (GISS, NCDC, CRU) and the two satellite records (RSS, UAH) (courtesy ClimateProgress.org and the Washington Post):

Hot, hot, hot

...and this second shows the true warming signal:

Hot, hot, hot

You'll doubtless notice the lack of any "being flat".

AGW is real, it's happening, it's worsening, and we humans are likely mostly to blame. Those four facts are no longer even debated among credible scientists.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13526
Quoting weatherh98:
Have we had an EF 5 this year yet?

no, but there have been 4 ef-4 tornados:

EF4 tornado
Harrisburg, Illinois on February 29
Henryville, Indiana on March 2
Crittenden, Kentucky on March 2
Marquette, Kansas on April 14
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I think we've had either 1 or 2 from the early april outbreak.
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Have we had an EF 5 this year yet?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6492
Morning all.

The three day rainfall total at the Nassau airport for last Saturday, Sunday and Monday was 7.05 inches. That's pretty remarkable for April.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.