Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:15 PM GMT on May 04, 2012

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Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."


Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.

May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.


Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.

Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".

The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.

Jeff Masters

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605. txjac
I'd like just a rainy day here ...we had some decent rain earlier this year but once again the ground is like concrete ..make it rain in west Houston please
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Quoting DoctorDave1:


Dr. Gray of Colorado St. (to name just one) is not a credible scientist?


Back in June 2006 Dr. Gray also said the globe would cool in a few years.

http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807

"Let's just say a crowd of baby boomers and yuppies have hijacked this thing," Gray says. "It's about politics. Very few people have experience with some real data. I think that there is so much general lack of knowledge on this. I've been at this over 50 years down in the trenches working, thinking and teaching."
Gray acknowledges that we've had some warming the past 30 years. "I don't question that," he explains. "And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."

Gray conveniently ignores the opinions of the vast majority of SCIENTISTS studying climate change. (see link if you dare)

http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/928 .asp

Dr. Gray is the old man down the street that shakes his fist at kids racing by on their skateboards. The science has past him by. He needs to stick to hurricanes and keep his subjective views to himself.
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Well looks like tropical development this month is in the Atlantic and East-Eastern Pacific's Favor. Definetly could see some monsoonal lows try to develop in the SW Caribbean with this set-up.
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Quoting Grothar:


I know what you mean. I already got people mad at me for all the wrong reasons. We are still very, very dry here. I hope our season starts soon.

People are so silly!
There are so many 'right' reasons to be mad at you, and they chose the wrong ones.
Pathetic.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

well that ITCZ is attempting to lift up some, so don't be too surprised to see some rain...

It's been wet all dry-season.
Have not had a dry season this year at all!
Loads of rain coming up out of the Amazon basin.
Not complainin' though!
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Quoting pottery:

It's been one of those days....


I know what you mean. I already got people mad at me for all the wrong reasons. We are still very, very dry here. I hope our season starts soon.
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Quoting Grothar:


We got it the first time, pott! :)

It's been one of those days....
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Quoting pottery:
Greetings...
Rain every day this week, some heavy.
2.5" since Tuesday.
It's the Dry Season, you know ?
Very Strange stuff.

well that ITCZ is attempting to lift up some, so don't be too surprised to see some rain...
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Quoting pottery:


We got it the first time, pott! :)
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Hammond and Slidell, Louisiana look like good candidates for tying or breaking record highs today.


They are always the first
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting pottery:
Greetings..From Trinidad.
Rain every day this week, some heavy.
2.5" since Tuesday.
It's the Dry Season, you know ?
Very Strange stuff.
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..
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Latest statistics of the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin show...
GOM: Above average vertical instability, and very below average Shear
(Perfect conditions)
Caribbean: About Average vertical instability, slightly below average shear
(Perfect conditions)
Tropical Atlantic: Below average vertical instability, and slightly above average shear.
(Somewhat Non-Conducive conditions)
Sub-tropical Atlantic: slightly Above average vertical instability, and above average shear.
(Decent conditions)

So basically in that case, if we were looking for our first system to occur before June 15 it would have the best chances of making it in the caribbean and gulf as a monsoonal system most likely, which i could see happening. Be back in a bit...
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Latest statistics of the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin show...
GOM: Above average vertical instability, and very below average Shear
(Perfect conditions)
Caribbean: About Average vertical instability, slightly below average shear
(Perfect conditions)
Tropical Atlantic: Below average vertical instability, and slightly above average shear.
(Somewhat Non-Conducive conditions)
Sub-tropical Atlantic: slightly Above average vertical instability, and above average shear.
(Decent conditions)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN NC AND NERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051730Z - 051930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. CLUSTERS AND LINE
SEGMENTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY PRODUCING STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW.

DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN NC INTO ERN SC
HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE MID
60S...THIS HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND A
LARGE CUMULUS FIELD WAS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 17Z
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CNTRL NC. AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
APPROACHES THE AREA...PER 17Z WV IMAGERY OVER ERN KY/WRN
WV/VA...DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO LINEAR STRUCTURES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS WAS
ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS WRN TN AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD E/SEWD WITH
TIME INTO NC/SC WITH E/SEWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER IMPULSE. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM WILL AID IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
AND MODESTLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT COUPLED WITH STRONG UPDRAFTS
MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW.

..LEITMAN.. 05/05/2012

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7613
Quoting Grothar:
FROM SCIENCEDEV:

Attempts to limit climate change by planting trees to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could be futile, according to two studies published this week.

It had previously been suggested that rising concentrations of the gas would boost plant growth and, with it, the amount of carbon dioxide plants absorb.

But two US-based teams — led by Johan Six of the University of California at Davis and Peter Reich at the University of Minnesota — say this is a false hope.

Insufficient amounts of nitrogen gas, they say, will limit plant

Full article below:

Link


nature must now be allow to use its natural means of balancing out our effect
with alter patterns caused by chemical embalances in our atomsphere
one must also understand
there is another sphere as well
that is effected by our presence thats the oceans what effects are we to see there
die offs on a mass scale remember the oceans are the producers of all life on this planet take out the producer well
and yet another area as well
the very dirt under our feet when the first setters to this new land came
there was 18 inches of fertile earth beneath there feet today they work with 5 inches
we are a very dirty and uncaring specis for our place called earth
our biggest problem
is ourselves and lack of good housekeeping skills
for this place called home
........................................KOTG
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Man struck by lightning in scrotum

A Spanish man has survived an unusual ordeal after being struck by lightning in the scrotum.

The 53-year-old man was walking down a street in Madrid when the lightning struck his scrotum through his pants, Spain's El Mondo newspaper reports.

The bolt is believed to have travelled down one of his legs and foot and right through to the footpath before he lost consciousness.

The man's son called paramedics who treated him for burns to his scrotum and feet.

Doctors at the Hospital de la Paz where the man was treated said his heart and brain functions were not affected by the lightning.


Most women would disagree about the brain functions not being affected, since they feel most men think with that part lol
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Quoting Skyepony:
94S


Im still shocked on how remarkably quiet all the Other basins have been this offseason, there's only been aproximently 5 storms to track out of all the basins in the past 6 months. Hard to believe, and I don't know if it's just me, but that to me means tropical energy is being built up and could be released with several storms coming soon, or one or two big storms. Im thinking the energy will be divided into 2 storms and a typhoon in the WPAC, 2 storms in the EPAC, and one strong storm in the ATL by July. IMO
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Quoting Grothar:
FROM SCIENCEDEV:

Attempts to limit climate change by planting trees to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could be futile, according to two studies published this week.

It had previously been suggested that rising concentrations of the gas would boost plant growth and, with it, the amount of carbon dioxide plants absorb.

But two US-based teams — led by Johan Six of the University of California at Davis and Peter Reich at the University of Minnesota — say this is a false hope.

Insufficient amounts of nitrogen gas, they say, will limit plant

Full article below:

Link


I question the analysis.

There is some data that says that where trees are planted is important. Planting trees at higher latitudes would decrease albedo, thus counteracting the carbon absorbing effects of planting trees.

Nitrogen is not an issue, except for fast growing annual plants. We fertilize for faster growth. Planting trees closer to the equator would not call for additional nitrogen.

Were there a problem with available nitrogen we'd be seeing forest growth slowing, would we not?

Then, most of the the detritus from trees (leaves, twigs, etc.) that fall to the ground gives up its carbon to the atmosphere. The major way plants re-sequester carbon is via their root systems which can grow far below the level at which microbes break down organic matter and release CO2.

I do agree that we can't rely on plants to save our sorry butts. We've got to quit burning fossil fuels. But over many decades or a few centuries if all things go as usual then plants will gradually get the extra carbon back underground.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
GFS at 240 hours..Way to far out to consider, but it is an interesting run..
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It appears the Central americans have began their burning, Significant Hazey ash clouds everywhere.
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584. Skyepony (Mod)
94S

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FROM SCIENCEDEV:

Attempts to limit climate change by planting trees to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere could be futile, according to two studies published this week.

It had previously been suggested that rising concentrations of the gas would boost plant growth and, with it, the amount of carbon dioxide plants absorb.

But two US-based teams — led by Johan Six of the University of California at Davis and Peter Reich at the University of Minnesota — say this is a false hope.

Insufficient amounts of nitrogen gas, they say, will limit plant

Full article below:

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


This somewhat explains the mood on the blog the past few days. The range of topics has been extraordinary. It has left me speechless; which,I am sure makes some of you quite happy.
well im sorry i upset you.guess i'll help some other blog in cyberspace with its post count..good bye and good luck to you
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36883
Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone up for a Super Moon party tonight?...........


This somewhat explains the mood on the blog the past few days. The range of topics has been extraordinary. It has left me speechless; which,I am sure makes some of you quite happy.
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Anyone up for a Super Moon party tonight?...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36883
its still winter it seems in some parts of the country......URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
415 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012

IDZ021-052200-
/O.UPG.KPIH.FZ.A.0001.120506T0800Z-120506T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KPIH.FZ.W.0001.120506T0800Z-120506T1400Z/
/O.CON.KPIH.LW.Y.0004.120505T1500Z-120506T0100Z/
LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...POCATELLO...BLACKFOOT
415 AM MDT SAT MAY 5 2012

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...MID 20S TO LOW 30S FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...POCATELLO...BLACKFOOT AND AMERICAN FALLS.

* IMPACTS...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CREATE ROUGH CHOP ON AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR. COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36883
knowing which tree to plant in Your area that fights global warming the best is important..this page has some great info..............Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36883
Quoting EugeneTillman:
568:

Go back and read my original statement. Perhaps you misinterpreted it--as I was making an argument contrasting the tiger analogy and the long-lasting affects of AGW.


In doing so you missed the point.

If there is a significant chance of a severe outcome and the cost of avoiding that outcome is small, then the prudent thing is to take evasive action.

Whether we are talking about danger to the individual or danger to all individuals should not change our decision.

Waiting to see if the tiger bites off our head or waiting to see if an overheated planet causes us great misery, neither make sense. Especially when the cost of escape is so low.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
All Plants Absorb Carbon Dioxide, but Trees are Best
While all living plant matter absorbs CO2 as part of photosynthesis, trees process significantly more than smaller plants due to their large size and extensive root structures. In essence, trees, as kings of the plant world, have much more “woody biomass” to store CO2 than smaller plants, and as a result are considered nature’s most efficient “carbon sinks.”
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36883
Good afternoon folks..hot and sunny here, wish we could get a shower, but it looks like inland will this afternoon......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36883

..if ever I cease to Love
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Man struck by lightning in scrotum

A Spanish man has survived an unusual ordeal after being struck by lightning in the scrotum.

The 53-year-old man was walking down a street in Madrid when the lightning struck his scrotum through his pants, Spain's El Mondo newspaper reports.

The bolt is believed to have travelled down one of his legs and foot and right through to the footpath before he lost consciousness.

The man's son called paramedics who treated him for burns to his scrotum and feet.

Doctors at the Hospital de la Paz where the man was treated said his heart and brain functions were not affected by the lightning.


His name wouldn't happen to be Chet, would it?
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Hammond and Slidell, Louisiana look like good candidates for tying or breaking record highs today.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Man struck by lightning in scrotum

A Spanish man has survived an unusual ordeal after being struck by lightning in the scrotum.

The 53-year-old man was walking down a street in Madrid when the lightning struck his scrotum through his pants, Spain's El Mondo newspaper reports.

The bolt is believed to have travelled down one of his legs and foot and right through to the footpath before he lost consciousness.

The man's son called paramedics who treated him for burns to his scrotum and feet.

Doctors at the Hospital de la Paz where the man was treated said his heart and brain functions were not affected by the lightning.

o_O poor guy... Out of all places to be struck....
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Quoting EugeneTillman:



Yes, but a tiger on the prowl in a residential neighborhood does not spell irreversible, life altering global impacts. It's a local problem with a good degree of expectation the tiger will be captured and taken back to the zoo in a matter of weeks.

Climate change and the projected affects of the theory are feared as permanent, affecting billions of folks on a global level.



You've clearly not reviewed the science on the subject.

AGW is not a local or regional phenomena. It affects the global energy balance of the planet. That additional energy affects ocean and atmospheric patterns which in turn alter weather and climate across the globe.

The changes we're inducing will last for hundreds to thousands of years depending on how we and nature respond. No respectable scientists have ever claimed the changes would be permanent, but they will be long lasting.

Lastly, we do not have the technology nor the social cohesiveness at this point to stop or reverse AGW. There is no "tiger" that can be captured and suddenly make everything as right as rain. There are things we can do to address the symptoms which may have other negative consequences, but that will not address the underlying issue.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1450
Heartland Institute has a "conference" coming up. I expect sock/meat puppet activity to increase. Just another oscillation to add to the list.
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Quoting DoctorDave1:


Dr. Gray of Colorado St. (to name just one) is not a credible scientist?
Dr. Gray is a very credible meteorologist. He is not, however, a climatologist. And being an expert in one scientific discipline does not in and of itself make one an expert in all others (unless you're the Professor on Gilligan's Island, in which case you're obviously an expert in everything: chemistry, mechanical engineering, coconut-based transistor radio construction. Everything, that is, except for basic boat repair; that's clearly a class he never bothered picking up.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
Quoting weatherh98:


Who are you saying is "bad" for electing certain people? Do you have a reference of a bad race?


So when did you stop beating your wife?

Nice try there, but I didn't say anything about race, or belief, or sexual orientation, or any other discriminatory factor having a "bad" influence on government.

What I did say, and has been often said in regards to elected governments, is that an elected government represents and is representative of the people who elect it.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1450
Mid-morning updated disco from CHS.

000
FXUS62 KCHS 051434
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1034 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HOT DAY ON TAP WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR
FULL INSOLATION NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE SAVANNAH AREA. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES OBSERVED ON 12Z RAOBS SUPPORT LOWER-MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE. THUS WILL NUDGE HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND INTRODUCE A CORRIDOR OF MID 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. THE ALTOSTRATUS DECK THAT HAS FORMED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE UPPER GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SOON THUS
EXPECT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY ISOLATION TO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH A CUMULUS FIELD WILL BEGIN TO FORM.

ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A RUN FOR THE MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT MESOSCALE PROCESSES COULD TAKE HOLD
AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FORM WHICH COULD HELP SPREAD A LINE OF
TSTMS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY MID-EVENING. HOWEVER...IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WILL OCCUR. PLAN TO STICK WITH A 20-40
PERCENT POP REGIME THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CHARLESTON
TRI- COUNTY AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURES NOTED ON THE MODIFIED 12Z
RAOB. DCAPES NEAR 1200 J/KG...DELTA EPT/S AROUND 30C AND WINDEX
VALUES NEAR 65 KT WILL EASILY SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT OF A LESSER RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH
H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -11C AND HCAPES NEAR 600 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WHICH WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDLANDS AS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
TO BE HIGHEST NORTH OF A SYLVANIA-YEMASSEE-FOLLY BEACH LINE...
WHICH INCLUDES THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA. SPC WFO GUIDANCE
RECENTLY INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1718
Quoting weatherh98:


What about the helecity?

500-600 m2/s2.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Starting over...

Good morning everybody.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 10% hatched tornado probability for northeast Nebraska, northeast Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and southeast South Dakota. At this time, an intense Mesoscale Convective System is exiting South Dakota and entering southern Minnesota. The fact that it is sustaining itself means that there is a plentiful amount of warm air advection reaching the state. As we head into this afternoon, conditions for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds could become even more significant as the low level jet strengthens and CAPE skyrockets to nearly 5000 j/kg. Hodographs across north Nebraska and south South Dakota at 00Z this evening are very favorable for rotating supercells and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will also likely accompany these storms this afternoon before they go into an upscale Mesoscale Convective System with a higher risk for damaging winds than anything else.





What about the helecity?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Quoting DoctorDave1:


Other countries have been planting trees? And, you make a good point. Action is necessary after overwelming evidence is discovered. Possible AGW does not fall into that category.


If the risk is significant and severe it would be foolish to wait for overwhelming evidence to take preventative action.

Especially when the action to be taken would improve conditions and cost less than continuing on down the potentially disastrous current path.

If the news tells you that a tiger has escaped from the local zoo, you are hearing low, throaty growls from the nearby bushes, and you smell a strong musky odor the prudent thing to do would be to vacate the area.

Waiting for the overwhelming evidence of the tiger pouncing on you would not be a smart move.

--

That said, there's no remaining question about AGW and its causes. The only remaining questions are about how much and now fast.
Member Since: February 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1344
I've said it before, but I'll make the statement again given today's conversation. I took a basic meteorology course to fulfill my science requirement for my sociology and statistics degrees. Even in a low level meteorology course, climate change is taught as currently occurring. The earth is getting warmer that's a fact.

When you analyze the data and adjust for the natural background norm (which is done using categorical data analysis), the temperature is clearly on the rise. Denying and arguing this fact is anti-science and anti-math. This is very simple and agreed upon methodology of statistical analysis.

You are free to have your opinions on the matter, but contrary to the popular belief, you can't make statistics say what you want them to say. These statistics show a clear increase in temperature since 1900, and it is accelerating as we move forward. The only significant change that has occurred is an increase in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
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Quoting BobWallace:


Who pays the insurance company premiums?


I was joking ha shouldn't write sarcasm without saying so
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Starting over...

Good morning everybody.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 10% hatched tornado probability for northeast Nebraska, northeast Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and southeast South Dakota. At this time, an intense Mesoscale Convective System is exiting South Dakota and entering southern Minnesota. The fact that it is sustaining itself means that there is a plentiful amount of warm air advection reaching the state. As we head into this afternoon, conditions for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds could become even more significant as the low level jet strengthens and CAPE skyrockets to nearly 5000 j/kg. Hodographs across north Nebraska and south South Dakota at 00Z this evening are very favorable for rotating supercells and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Very large hail and damaging winds will also likely accompany these storms this afternoon before they go into an upscale Mesoscale Convective System with a higher risk for damaging winds than anything else.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.