Tornado hits France; unprecedented April heat in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:44 PM GMT on May 01, 2012

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A rare EF-1 tornado with 73 - 112 mph winds (117 - 180 kph) hit Toulouse, France on Sunday, causing minor damage that included collapsed walls, uprooted trees, and cars moved out of place. The tornado touched down 15 - 20 km south of Toulouse in Southwest France at 7:10 pm local time, and baseball-sized hail (4 cm) also hit the region. According to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), this was the first tornado in France in 2012. French tornadoes are rare; there were just three tornadoes in the country in 2011. The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) (as summarized by Wikipedia) lists 15 tornadoes for all of Europe so far in 2012. Most of the twisters (nine) were in Turkey. For comparison, an average of 495 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. during the period January - April over the years 2009 - 2011. A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe.


Video 1. A rare French tornado kicks up dust near Toulouse, France on April 29, 2012.

Unprecedented April heat hits Central and Eastern Europe
A European heat wave of unparalleled intensity for so early in the year smashed all-time April heat records over much of Central and Eastern Europe on Saturday and Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, new national April heat records were set in Belarus, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland, and hundreds of stations in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia recorded their hottest April temperatures on record. Moscow hit 28.6°C (84°F) on Sunday, the hottest April reading in the city since record keeping began 130 years ago. The culprit for the heat wave and French tornado is a large low pressure system off the coast of France whose counter-clockwise flow has been pumping hot air from the Sahara Desert northwards into Europe. The low is expected to continue to bring unusually hot weather to most of Central and Eastern Europe for the remainder of the week.

New all-time April national heat records set over the past few days:

Poland: 31.7°C (89.18°F) at Tomaszow on 4/29
Germany: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Munich on 4/28
Austria: 31.8°C (89.2°F) at Ranshoten on 4/28
Belarus: 30.4°C ( 86.7°F) at Zitovici on 4/29
Moldova 32.5°C
Lithuania

Jeff Masters

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700. Jedkins01
5:20 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
692. Jedkins01 9:52 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

You a good Man Jed with a nicely explained correction to my comment; that is why were are here (to learn from one another).........Your informed comment and tact is greatly appreciated............ :)



thank you! And BTW, I didn't intend to belittle anything you said, I just love to teach what I love!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
699. weatherh98
2:49 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
I have always been interested in this event, which still has little explanation and occured about 5200 years ago.


Link


Shows just how fast that happened
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6475
698. weatherh98
2:47 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
This may clear things up



Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6475
697. aspectre
2:43 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
NEW BLOG
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696. ncstorm
2:20 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
654 ncstorm: that bermuda high needs to move away..we may break a record today for heat

I thought GFS was predicting that a Low would develop in the middle of the line where the Bermuda-AzoresHigh normally wanders. Has GFS changed its mind?


No it still develops it..I posted a picture of it in one of my previous posts off the east coast and one heading to bermuda
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15157
695. aspectre
2:16 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
654 ncstorm: That bermuda high needs to move away...we may break a record today for heat

I thought GFS was predicting that a Low would develop in the middle of the line where the Bermuda-AzoresHigh normally wanders. Has GFS changed its mind?
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694. Grothar
2:12 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
I have always been interested in this event, which still has little explanation and occured about 5200 years ago.


Link
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693. weathermanwannabe
2:02 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
692. Jedkins01 9:52 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

You a good Man Jed with a nicely explained correction to my comment; that is why were are here (to learn from one another).........Your informed comment and tact is greatly appreciated............ :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9062
692. Jedkins01
1:52 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Interesting looking convective complex in the Gulf West of Florida. Not tropical in nature so don't be fooled by the appearance....This is the second example in the past few weeks of a large storm looking "blob" out in the Gulf which generated some discussion about an early start to the season. You need all the ingredients to gel just perfectly for tropical storm formation with SST's, a pre-existing disturbance (usually a frontal remnant early or late in the season), sufficiently moist environment, and, low wind shear being at the top of the list. Sheer is too prohibitive (see below) at this time for any tropical development. That portion of Florida really needs the rain so the bigger question is whether it will dry out before reaching the coast.

Link



The issue is not whether it will dry out or not. What you see there with that complex of convection is an elongated low level convergence zone. If you didn't noticed before, very dry air aloft was once present there, that is until significant low level convergence eventually forced the higher surface moisture upward, therefore moistening the environment.


Because of that, it is possible for that area of thunderstorms to make it to Florida, however, I doubt it will stricly for the fact that the near shore waters become highly unfavorable for thunderstorms during the day, and those convergent zones only last so long, and as it approaches Florida the changes in wind direction with height would most likely disrupt the convergence focus.



Most people forget just how big of an influence the daily cycle is. What I mean by that is the land is more favorable for convection over land during the day, and less during the night. However, over water it is the opposite, it is more favorable over water at night and less during the day. This is even more extreme with the near shore waters. In case anyone noticed, thunderstorms during the day in the gulf always weaken dramatically as they reach the near shore waters, regardless of how overall favorable the atmosphere is for convection. However, the prime time for thunderstorms off the water here on the west cost of Florida is between 3 AM and 9 AM. The time frame isn't always like I said, but you get the idea.

Total moisture through the column:

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691. weathermanwannabe
1:43 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
didnt Andrew come in an off year supposed slow year ?..pat said it right, prepare and be ready..every year regardless..


I went through Andrew. Slow La Nina year with 10 total storms but the "A" storm that did not form until late August was all she wrote; and a rapid intensification nightmare at that...............
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690. MrBoujangles
1:43 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )

Windmills don't work that way
Member Since: May 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
689. Jedkins01
1:41 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
yes very dry here in central Florida as well, rainy season is supposed to start in 4 weeks so they say..lets see


We had some brief heavy rain here yesterday, about 0.25, sure wasn't much, but it's better than nothing, I also got 0.61 on Sunday, so we are getting a few small sea breeze storms here and there lately at my place.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
688. AtHomeInTX
1:39 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #674 --- LOL, AtHome...! But I'm kinda laughing and squirming in my seat at the same time - because that's how it's been in SW Florida so far this year. We've had glorious clouds for 3 days, in fact, but they have been unable to do more than spit up a few drops before something shreds them back down. If I've collected five inches of rain so far this very warm year, I'd be really surprised.


Hope y'all get your rain. We managed to get a few clouds and thunder and lightning last year. And not a drop of rain. Still got my fingers crossed that the sea breeze showers return this year.
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687. LargoFl
1:38 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
686. ILwthrfan
1:38 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Hydrus: post: # 671.  Good post.  One of the very great events that really propelled my interest into Climate vs. weather was the infamous Younger Dyras event.


Though there are differing theories still out on to what triggered the start and end of the event, it still amazes me of just how quickly the global temperature dropped and increased in a matter of decades, though the event itself last nearly 
10,800 B.C. and 9,500 B.C.





Department of Oceanography Texas A&M University



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1500
685. LargoFl
1:36 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Boss. Hopefully, the Gulf will not be threatened by a Major this year so you will have some left over for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
didnt Andrew come in an off year supposed slow year ?..pat said it right, prepare and be ready..every year regardless..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
684. LargoFl
1:34 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
And a Wunderful Happy Birthday to my Wife today.
well Happy birthday to her on her special day
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
683. washingtonian115
1:33 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:
While everyone is talking about school, I feel compelled to add that I start my Medical/Surgical and Psych clinicals in a week, along with a class titled "Caring for Older Adults in Nursing Practice"... AND I start my Nursing Research class in July.

(I win)
Ohhhhh very good Jeff.I hope you succeed in your career .I remember when I was younger and it took me 10 years after high school to complete school and get a profession that I really liked.
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682. Grothar
1:32 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
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681. LargoFl
1:31 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #674 --- LOL, AtHome...! But I'm kinda laughing and squirming in my seat at the same time - because that's how it's been in SW Florida so far this year. We've had glorious clouds for 3 days, in fact, but they have been unable to do more than spit up a few drops before something shreds them back down. If I've collected five inches of rain so far this very warm year, I'd be really surprised.
yes very dry here in central Florida as well, rainy season is supposed to start in 4 weeks so they say..lets see
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38136
680. OrchidGrower
1:29 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Re: #674 --- LOL, AtHome...! But I'm kinda laughing and squirming in my seat at the same time - because that's how it's been in SW Florida so far this year. We've had glorious clouds for 3 days, in fact, but they have been unable to do more than spit up a few drops before something shreds them back down. If I've collected five inches of rain so far this very warm year, I'd be really surprised.
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 388
679. hydrus
1:29 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
671. hydrus 9:13 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

It will probably (hopefully) not happen in our lifetime but that is the big-ticket issue/game changer in terms of global climate change if you can definitively isolate a cause and effect between greenhouse emissions and the ocean circulations. With that being said, it has happened many times in the past due to natural earth cycles (Ice Ages as an example). The Gulf Stream is the prefect example.
I have been fascinated with the Ice Ages since I was a kid.Northern hemisphere glaciation during the last ice ages. The accumulation of 3 to 4 km thick ice sheets caused a sea level lowering of about 120 m. Also, the Alps and the Himalayas were covered by glaciers. Winter sea ice coverage was much more limited in the south.The second ice age, and possibly most severe, is estimated to have occurred from 850 to 635 Ma (million years) ago, in the late Proterozoic Age and it has been suggested that it produced a second[1] "Snowball Earth" in which the earth iced over completely. It has been suggested also that the end of this second cold period[1] was responsible for the subsequent Cambrian Explosion, a time of rapid diversification of multicelled life during the Cambrian era. However, this hypothesis is still controversial,[2][3] though is growing in popularity among researchers as evidence in its favor has mounted.

A minor series of glaciations occurred from 460 Ma to 430 Ma. There were extensive glaciations from 350 to 250 Ma. The current ice age, called the Quaternary glaciation, has seen more or less extensive glaciation on 40,000 and later, 100,000 year cycles.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21026
678. nrtiwlnvragn
1:27 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


Excerpt:


ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña has transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through northern summer 2012.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11084
677. RitaEvac
1:22 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

"360 opposite", huh? I'm so opposite I'm exactly identical? hehe

And yes, I freely admit I'm a weather junkie like the rest of you.


Sorry 180
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
676. weathermanwannabe
1:21 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
671. hydrus 9:13 AM EDT on May 03, 2012

It will probably (hopefully) not happen in our lifetime but that is the big-ticket issue/game changer in terms of global climate change if you can definitively isolate a cause and effect between greenhouse emissions and the ocean circulations. With that being said, it has happened many times in the past due to natural earth cycles (Ice Ages as an example). The Gulf Stream is the prefect example.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9062
675. RitaEvac
1:21 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Oh I hope so.

The Gulf Coast has really come a long way since 05.

We all need to consider our preps and evacuation plans as soon as possible.

It's the best Hedge bet on calamity...preparation.


Gulf coast is pretty resilient
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
674. AtHomeInTX
1:20 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Yep! Looks like hurricane season over Texas. :)

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
673. aspectre
1:18 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
668 Patrap: We all need to consider our preps and evacuation plans as soon as possible.
It's the best Hedge bet on calamity...preparation.


Hence the early delivery of the Fresca supply.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
672. ncstorm
1:16 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
the GFS shows the low as well but loses it in the run







Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15157
671. hydrus
1:13 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
I wonder if this could happen for real, posted it yesterday, but wanted to see what others might say about it......On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases%u2014an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.

A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation/ Great Ocean Conveyor. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, while red paths represent surface currents
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670. jeffs713
1:12 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


You're a weather junkie like us but you are in totally different field of work, like a 360 opposite type of interest

"360 opposite", huh? I'm so opposite I'm exactly identical? hehe

And yes, I freely admit I'm a weather junkie like the rest of you.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
669. Patrap
1:12 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
And a Wunderful Happy Birthday to my Wife today.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
668. Patrap
1:10 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Hey Boss. Hopefully, the Gulf will not be threatened by a Major this year so you will have some left over for Thanksgiving and Christmas.


Oh I hope so.

The Gulf Coast has really come a long way since 05.

We all need to consider our preps and evacuation plans as soon as possible.

It's the best Hedge bet on calamity...preparation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
667. SuzK
1:08 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


Because of chaos.


And this is the whole thing in a nutshell. Meteorology is the chaos theory in action, dealing mostly in probabilities. We've taken the physical/chemical foundations of our planet, specifically, ozone loss, ramping up the ppm of everything in our atmosphere, blasting deep into the mantle, injecting chemicals into the atmosphere to geo-engineer the climate...and then get excited when the chaos ramps up too. Chaos is. Wouldn't we be excited to experience mega chaos from the hand of nature? If we can do it, she certainly can. And it is that propitious moment, 2012.

Question: I see the dust is blowing at us from east (Sahara) and west (China) simultaneously. This is normal to a degree, but who can elaborate on its affects to North America's current climate situation. Are the winds stronger this time around? I find it curiously interesting, plus aren't we transitioning to El Nino at the same time.
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666. weatherh98
1:07 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.


Waiting for the crow, fresca and the chart in 20 minutes oooohhj
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665. weathermanwannabe
1:07 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.


Hey Boss. Hopefully, the Gulf will not be threatened by a Major this year so you will have some left over for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9062
664. RitaEvac
1:07 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:
While everyone is talking about school, I feel compelled to add that I start my Medical/Surgical and Psych clinicals in a week, along with a class titled "Caring for Older Adults in Nursing Practice"... AND I start my Nursing Research class in July.

(I win)


You're a weather junkie like us but you are in totally different field of work, like a 360 opposite type of interest
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
663. jeffs713
1:04 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
While everyone is talking about school, I feel compelled to add that I start my Medical/Surgical and Psych clinicals in a week, along with a class titled "Caring for Older Adults in Nursing Practice"... AND I start my Nursing Research class in July.

(I win)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5880
662. hydrus
1:03 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.
It is gettin close, May-3 already, went by quick fer me. I am hoping we get through another one without someone being socked with a bad one. ..Those fresca,s sound good already and its only 8 a.m....:)..I thought this was sorta interesting..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21026
661. aspectre
1:01 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
628 MariettaMoon: Link to personal WUblog on Man and Biodiversity

Nice idea for your main Blog-topic. And a nice presentation: nice enough to make me wonder whether you might be running afoul of copyright restrictions.
If you're not doing so already, a month between new bloggings on the topic gives you time to write your own thoughts about the most interesting points made in the author's chapters.

Since he appears to have written a chapter on Nitrates, I'm surprised at his failure to mention the possibility of an upcoming Phosphate Crisis as a boundary.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
660. weathermanwannabe
12:58 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's definitely moving toward the NNE or NE but the problem maybe the dry air in the upper levels over FL eventhough dewpoints are in the low 70's at the surface but above at like 10,000 feet the air is very dry so we will see.


It is situated right on the Eastern boundry of a very dry upper level Tutt cell which is probably enhancing the current convection but it may not last. It is basically boxed in between the Tutt cell (and very dry air to the left) and the Peninsula of Florida to the West. Like the old song by Dr. John; " I was in the right place, but it must have been the wrong time"....

Link
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659. Thrawst
12:55 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.


Please.. :P
Are you taking IB?
I am, and I got Biology, Chemistry, English, Math, Spanish, Geography exams June 4th - June 7th.

Plus I got SAT this saturday (no pun intended).
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1865
658. Patrap
12:52 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
12 cases of FRESCA just delivered by FEDEX.

Seems the "Season" is under way.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
657. StormTracker2K
12:47 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Interesting looking convective complex in the Gulf West of Florida. Not tropical in nature so don't be fooled by the appearance....This is the second example in the past few weeks of a large storm looking "blob" out in the Gulf which generated some discussion about an early start to the season. You need all the ingredients to gel just perfectly for tropical storm formation with SST's, a pre-existing disturbance (usually a frontal remnant early or late in the season), sufficiently moist environment, and, low wind shear being at the top of the list. Sheer is too prohibitive (see below) at this time for any tropical development. That portion of Florida really needs the rain so the bigger question is whether it will dry out before reaching the coast.

Link


It's definitely moving toward the NNE or NE but the problem maybe the dry air in the upper levels over FL eventhough dewpoints are in the low 70's at the surface but above at like 10,000 feet the air is very dry so we will see.
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656. ncstorm
12:41 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
the CMC shows a low moving down the east coast







and then moving back inland to SC and riding back up the coast


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655. weathermanwannabe
12:37 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Good Morning. Interesting looking convective complex in the Gulf West of Florida. Not tropical in nature so don't be fooled by the appearance....This is the second example in the past few weeks of a large storm looking "blob" out in the Gulf which generated some discussion about an early start to the season. You need all the ingredients to gel just perfectly for tropical storm formation with SST's, a pre-existing disturbance (usually a frontal remnant early or late in the season), sufficiently moist environment, and, low wind shear being at the top of the list. Sheer is too prohibitive (see below) at this time for any tropical development. That portion of Florida really needs the rain so the bigger question is whether it will dry out before reaching the coast.

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9062
654. ncstorm
12:35 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
that bermuda high needs to move away..we may break a record today for heat
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15157
653. weatherh98
12:35 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yep, and here is the chart.




Be hold the CHART
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652. StormTracker2K
12:33 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well it's almost a month till hurricane season so...


Yep, and here is the chart.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
651. washingtonian115
12:26 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Seriously
Well it's almost a month till hurricane season so...
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650. StormTracker2K
12:25 PM GMT on May 03, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


No, that's headed or mobile


This mass of convection is moving NNE or NE. However lots of dry air in the upper levels could prevent this from making to FL but what it could do is add enough lift to spark a few storms toward the FL west coast.
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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