Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2012

Share this Blog
52
+

At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1281 - 1231

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

1281. Skyepony (Mod)
High winds swept through a beer tent where 200 people gathered after a Cardinals game Saturday, killing one and seriously injuring at least five others, authorities said.The owner of the bar where the tent was set up said firefighters told him that the patron who died was struck by lightning, but Deputy Fire Chief John Altmann and Public Safety Director Eddie Roth said they didn't know what killed the man.At least 17 people were hospitalized, including five who were initially in critical condition but are now said to be in serious condition. Up to 100 people were treated at the scene, mostly for minor injuries such as cuts and bruises.Officials said straight-line winds whipped through the large tent outside Kilroy's Sports Bar, near Busch Stadium. The crowd was celebrating after the Cardinals beat Milwaukee 7-3 earlier in the afternoon.Roth said winds of about 50 mph shattered aluminum poles that held up the tent, which was located south of the stadium. The force of the wind blew the tent onto an adjacent railroad bridge."It was crazy, scary," said Annie Randall, whose family owns Kilroy's. "We're just so sorry this happened."Kilroy's owner Art Randall described a short burst of a storm — perhaps five seconds, he said — with a massive wind that lifted the huge tent, threw it perhaps 100 feet into the air and sent the aluminum poles and most everything in the tent airborne.When he heard the boom, he initially thought a train had derailed into the tent.As the wind blew, a bolt of lightning crashed into the bar, Randall said. He said firefighters told him it was a lightning strike — not flying debris — that killed the man."At some point in that five seconds, we were getting lightning strikes, and apparently one of our customers got hit by lightning right in the middle of the dance floor," Randall said.The bar owner said he screamed for help and three customers ran over to administer CPR, but they couldn't save the man.Randall said he looked around "and saw 50 bodies scattered everywhere."The man who died appeared to be in his 50s, Roth said. His name has not been released.Roth said the tent had passed inspection and it didn't appear there would be any violation, although the investigation is ongoing.Randall described a scene in which barstools, pedestals and a 100-pound bass amplifier were flying through the air. The disc jockey working the party was struck by the amp and knocked unconscious, the bar owner said, and people were scurrying to help one another."My wife had people in the beer cooler — we had the beer cooler loaded with injuries," Randall said. "It was a triage deal."Kilroy's is among several bars near Busch Stadium, and many bars set up tents for the excess business after Cardinals games. Crowds were also large because the St. Louis Blues were playing against the Los Angeles Kings Saturday night in the first game of the NHL's Western Conference semifinals.The St. Louis area was under thunderstorm and tornado warnings several times Saturday. About two hours after the incident at Kilroy's, tornado sirens blared throughout the city after a funnel cloud sighting. There were several reports of tree damage, power lines down and damage from hail that in some parts of the region reportedly was as big as tennis balls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Two monster hail producers in west Texas are headed towards the general direction of Lubbock, Texas.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


And they are talking about the same tornado report? The one on the SPC page?

Certainly not impossible for a brief tornado to be rather large, although it is a little atypical and should generate skepticism. Also, when someone tells me that a photo is "from a chaser that was there," that doesn't say a lot to me. I've seen many very bad chaser pictures/reports by people who have little training, but call themselves a "chaser" because they want to be like other people they admire or see in the popular media. We also get many many posts of "the NWS really needs a warning now" - probably more than I can count - although many of those times the information used to come to that conclusion is borderline at best.

Yes, I am talking about the only tornado report in Texas yesterday. If you want specifics, the storm chaser's name is Niccolo Ubalducci...look him up on facebook. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Thrawst:
We have reached 5 inches of rain in Nassau today.

Flooding is everywhere on the streets, and will go down as one of the nastiest (besides Hurricane Irene, August 25th) days I've ever seen it here.

Hopefully tomorrow it will clear up .. hopefully.


This goes to show that a system doesn't have to be an Invest or named system to produce significant impact...thanks for sharing...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. Skyepony (Mod)
Thunderstorm in Bangladesh takes down 500 houses & kills three.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I know a guy that works at the Norman, OK National Weather Service. He believed it and stated it was a large tornado himself, so...


And they are talking about the same tornado report? The one on the SPC page?

Certainly not impossible for a brief tornado to be rather large, although it is a little atypical and should generate skepticism. Also, when someone tells me that a photo is "from a chaser that was there," that doesn't say a lot to me. I've seen many very bad chaser pictures/reports by people who have little training, but call themselves a "chaser" because they want to be like other people they admire or see in the popular media.

We also get many many posts of "the NWS really needs a warning now" - probably more than I can count - although many of those times the information used to come to that conclusion is borderline at best. This makes sense, as I strongly doubt that in all those cases the NWS is sitting down on the job just letting an obvious tornadic circulation go right by them. It can happen, but as for yesterday's case, it wasn't like the radar was completely covered in storms... it was the storm of the evening, was probably being watched by almost everyone on shift at WFO Lubbock, and probably wasn't warned on for a logical reason.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3210
1275. nigel20
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ScottLincoln:


You'd be surprised how many times pictures just like this one surface that turn out not to be tornadoes.

Looks like only one tornado report from yesterday.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120428_rpts .html
Although not impossible, typically if a tornado were to get that large, it would not be so brief.

I think we need a little more than that...

I know a guy that works at the Norman, OK National Weather Service. He believed it and stated it was a large tornado himself, so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
334 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027 >033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-301945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBU LL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORR OW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
334 PM EDT SUN APR 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK... WITH THE
FIRST CHANCE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL LIKELY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ON ONE OR MORE OF THE DAYS THIS WEEK.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECAST...AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$





Gonna be a nerve racking week. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. Skyepony (Mod)
Finally had a chance to look at the satellite. Tropical feel today. Been out in it all day. Went from Casselberry to Malabar. Saw a quick downpour in Melbourne. Had 0.11" here. Saw a decent scud cloud west of I-95.

Skyepony (the actual pony) was feeling the surface trough south of here, wind would kick up a little & he'd want to go..pranced around more than usual. Fun ride.

The ants are moving to high ground.

There is an Upper level Low over SFL is venting the trough, causing diffluence, especially on the east side, over the Atlantic & Bahamas. So can't rule out a more rain for East Central FL. Little going on now north of Orlando, incoming shower headed for the Cape.

This should continue on about another day. More heavy rain for SFL & Bahamas is possible. Models then call for the different features to move away from each other, weakening it. There is so much shear around. The bulk of the moisture may make it to LA before being slowly pushed back east over much of the Southeast over the next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1271. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's from a storm chaser that was on this storm last night, and he specified in his post that it was.

Oh well, then ...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


The inverted trough now splits the state so the entire east coast is now on the convergent side for the evening.


Hmmmm
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1268. nigel20
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1267. nigel20
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Content in post 1262 is heading this way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Heard that 6 inches has Already fallen in some places in West broward and Boca Raton... Maybe that 8 inches possible forcast wasnt crazy after all.

I'm assuming 2-3 inches will fall tommorow over the area.


The inverted trough now splits the state so the entire east coast is now on the convergent side for the evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This was the tornado produced by that storm in western Texas last night.

I usually don't bash, but the NWS really dropped the ball on this yesterday. It had a good radar signature and even after a tornado was reported, the severe thunderstorm warning was never upgraded to a tornado warning.



You'd be surprised how many times pictures just like this one surface that turn out not to be tornadoes.

Looks like only one tornado report from yesterday.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120428_rpts .html
Although not impossible, typically if a tornado were to get that large, it would not be so brief.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's from a storm chaser that was on this storm last night, and he specified in his post that it was.

I think we need a little more than that...
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3210
1263. beell
From yesterday's SPC storm reports.

0147
16 SW ASPERMONT
STONEWALL TX 3298 10042
BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED
OBSERVED TO LAST ABOUT 2 MINUTES. (LUB)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1262. Thrawst
We have reached 5 inches of rain in Nassau today.

Flooding is everywhere on the streets, and will go down as one of the nastiest (besides Hurricane Irene, August 25th) days I've ever seen it here.

Hopefully tomorrow it will clear up .. hopefully.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Most likely yes and much more robust, imo. Increasing easterly flow overnight will aid in the redevelopment of shwrs/strms.


Heard that 6 inches has Already fallen in some places in West broward and Boca Raton... Maybe that 8 inches possible forcast wasnt crazy after all.

I'm assuming 2-3 inches will fall tommorow over the area.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
I was able to experience Wilma landfall from the fifth floor on the beach in Marco Island. very impressive weather force. The paint on the windows was sandblasted off from beach sand. One thing I wish they emphasized more was really the very little damage done on Marco Island considering the storm as the island has had the strongest building codes in Florida for years.yeah there were pool cages destroyed and some roofing damage but actually I saw no complete structure or roof failure. Lesson learned you can live in coastal areas if you build properly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Although Convection is minimal at the moment, should we expected a flare up and a large shield of rain to form like earlier today for tommorow over metro dade, broward, palm beach?


Most likely yes and much more robust, imo. Increasing easterly flow overnight will aid in the redevelopment of shwrs/strms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1258. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.

Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


120
WUUS54 KLUB 300027
SVRLUB
TXC219-279-300130-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0075.120430T0027Z-120430T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HOCKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
SOUTHERN LAMB COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 723 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LITTLEFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SUDAN...
AMHERST...ANTON...SPADE...LITTLEFIELD AND OLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8067451290.



LAT...LON 3409 10255 3422 10209 3370 10209 3363 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 229DEG 18KT 3388 10240
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128676
This week looks to be good right now..... Although I will be in Joplin MO for the 1 year Ann of the EF5 that hit.... Then I'll be chasing Tornados on the 22nd of May... Kinda hope there is something to chase this year....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There's an impressive supercell near Lubbock Texas... It has a TVS and seemingly some strong rotation but it's close to a radar site so I have my doubts... What does anyone else think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1255. nigel20
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ClevelandBob:
Hi everyone. Longtime lurker first time blogger, anyway, what do you all think of the severe threat this week?

There's going to be a threat for Severe Weather everyday this week, and Tuesday looks like it will be the peak day across portions of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota. In this area, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1253. klew136
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
24.46N/80.11W


I really wish that Plymouth State would put the Keys in their map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1252. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Are you still digging for those pictures, Geoff?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Hello Everybody,

Just thought I would check in and see what's going own....

Its always good to see the regulars in here as well as some new people....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Going to get a bit interesting overnight, IMO. Was watching that area earlier today, seemed to be heading a bit to the NNE out of the straits. Other circulations in the vicinity at the time, reminded me of a broad low with embedded vorticie. Seemed to be the most well defined looking at earlier 1k visible, nothing at the surface however. Convergence has waned this afternoon thus the decrease in convection, should return later this evening however, stay tuned.


Although Convection is minimal at the moment, should we expected a flare up and a large shield of rain to form like earlier today for tommorow over metro dade, broward, palm beach?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1249. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Going to get a bit interesting overnight, IMO. Was watching that area earlier today, seemed to be heading a bit to the NNE out of the straits. Other circulations in the vicinity at the time, reminded me of a broad low with embedded vorticie. Seemed to be the most well defined looking at earlier 1k visible, nothing at the surface however. Convergence has waned this afternoon thus the decrease in convection, should return later this evening however, stay tuned.


Hey, PP I couldn't build the GIF on the other site, but here is a link to what I was referring earlier.

Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
1248. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/AOI/XL
MARK
24.46N/80.11W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
1160 GeorgiaStormz [inre 1156] : According to the Elements of Style, required in my curriculum, it is perfectly fine to deviate from standard grammar rules to better express your meaning.
The problem comes when the deviation is in no way necessary or even beneficial.


The very real problems arise from having lackwits compose and/or grade the English proficiency sections of the IQ, GED, SAT, college entry essays, CLEP, employment exams, etc. It's especially bad when those tests are machine-graded without any followup questioning by well-trained humans.


Hey, aspectre. You mean all those years I spent learning English was a waist? I didn't realize there tweren't no such things as rules. I even teached it wrong. Someone even borrowed me a book about it. Wow, now I feel like a maroon. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
Quoting Grothar:
I will post the animated version in a minute, but there seems to be a flare-up near the low SE of Fla



Going to get a bit interesting overnight, IMO. Was watching that area earlier today, seemed to be heading a bit to the NNE out of the straits. Other circulations in the vicinity at the time, reminded me of a broad low with embedded vorticie. Seemed to be the most well defined looking at earlier 1k visible, nothing at the surface however. Convergence has waned this afternoon thus the decrease in convection, should return later this evening however, stay tuned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everyone. Longtime lurker first time blogger, anyway, what do you all think of the severe threat this week?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1244. Grothar
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Will Dmin/Dmax affect this system?


I don't know.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
1243. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

What's the source of the picture? How do we know what tornado this is?

It's from a storm chaser that was on this storm last night, and he specified in his post that it was.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The most aggressive wording the National Hurricane Center would use for a storm like that would be...

"...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC BERYL HEADED TOWARDS THE GULF COAST..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
I will post the animated version in a minute, but there seems to be a flare-up near the low SE of Fla




Will Dmin/Dmax affect this system?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1239. bappit
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This was the tornado produced by that storm in western Texas last night.

I usually don't bash, but the NWS really dropped the ball on this yesterday. It had a good radar signature and even after a tornado was reported, the severe thunderstorm warning was never upgraded to a tornado warning.


What's the source of the picture? How do we know what tornado this is?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1238. Grothar
I will post the animated version in a minute, but there seems to be a flare-up near the low SE of Fla

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26515
1158 trHUrrIXC5MMX: how about this craziness...
...BERYL STRENGTHENS TO 345 MPH... BREAKING ALL CYCLONE RECORDS FOR FOR THE ERA... THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS PHENOMENON MAKING HISTORY


Actually that'd be a minor side effect barely worth mentioning, if anyone were to pay attention to it. Certainly not history making in comparison to the major asteroid strike and/or volcanic SuperEruption that caused the hypercane.
'bout like complaining about an itch while being eaten by a KomodoDragon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1236. nigel20
April 29 SST Anomaly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GO ATLANTA HAWKS!!!!!!!!!!

My PWS recorded 89.5F, but i live in a warm area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1234. nigel20
Quoting PedleyCA:
Nigel20- Not even close to the 88 I mentioned this morning that they changed down from 93. It made it to 81.4 on my sensor, which is 6.6 under the updated forecast. I use the old site.

Yeah, way below the forecast high of the day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1233. nigel20
Quoting hydrus:
Gilbert was a monster. I am glad it was not at cat-5 status when it ran right down the backbone of the country.

I would not be surprised if Gilbert was a cat 4 upon impact or maybe the terrain brought down some very strong gust. The prime minister at the time Hon Edward Seaga said it was like a nuclear bomb went off in the country after flying over the damage...there was a farmer in the eastern end of the island that lost over 40000 of his 50000 Coconuts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nigel20- Not even close to the 88 I mentioned this morning that they changed down from 93. It made it to 81.4 on my sensor, which is 6.6 under the updated forecast. I use the old site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1231. hydrus
4 day map looks like summer..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1281 - 1231

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
48 °F
Overcast