Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

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A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Sorry guys I'm just trying to correct a misspelled word down there and this keeps happening. Ok just consider "petal" changed to "pedal" lol.
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Quoting ncstorm:
looks like the 12Z CMC switched gears and carries the moisture to the GOM instead of Florida





It did that yesterday too. I think the GFS is right because look at this below as it appears the tropical moisture is going to come up and meet this disturbance coming across the northern Gulf. Infact there are 2 of them that come by next week.

Notice the kink in the jet west of FL.


This is also the reason why the rain at first is focused on the westside of FL.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Choices nowadays other than being a sitting duck are:
a. Completely underground in a storm shelter.
b. In a vehicle, heading away from the storm, petal to the metal.

We have used option b this year once already. Most likely we will be doing it again. : )

Just thought I would drop by to say hi!
Have a great day everyone.

A: best option, many don't have the luxury.
B: Foolhardy and crazy. In the time it takes you to determine the direction of the storm, determine the safest direction, get into your car, and get going o the right route... the storm could already be passed, or have changed direction. Not to mention... if you needed to go to a point 10 miles to your SE right now, how long would it take you to get there? If a storm is tornado-warned, and 10 miles away. moving at 35mph (roughly normal for a supercell), it would be on top of you in about 15 minutes. This assumes the storm is a *point*, and not a mass of clouds several miles wide.

There is also an option C...
C: Get into the best sort of shelter you can find, whether that is a basement, interior room, or under a stairway. If you're in an EF4 or 5, you're screwed anyway. But in the vastly more common types of storms (EF0-EF2), these sorts of shelters will save your life.
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The NAM keeps it south of Florida, but that does not mean there wont be some needed rain..
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Quoting kwgirl:
Good Afternoon. #117 and 120, the forecast this morning when I got up was for the storms to move into the Gulf. It is coming my way, just in time for the weekend. The forecast stated that we would see cloudy day tomorrow and rain into the evening. Let's see if it holds.


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48 hour shows a low in the straits.. 132 hour shows it over Northern Florida. 168 hour offshore N.E.Florida. Not a real fast mover on that run..
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Quoting AlwaysThinkin:
Well this story is shockingly timely

Study: Most victims knew Ala. twisters were coming



Just the absolute horror of knowing how awful something like that is coming at you and the terror that you really can't do anything about it....just ugh.

Choices nowadays other than being a sitting duck are:
a. Completely underground in a storm shelter.
b. In a vehicle, heading away from the storm, petal to the metal.

We have used option b this year once already. Most likely we will be doing it again. : )

Just thought I would drop by to say hi!
Have a great day everyone.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Do you think all the clouds/showers/storms that are already out there will inhibit storm growth later today?
from north central kanas southward traveling e thats the area to watch its a compact system but large bombs sometimes come in small packages
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
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a early rainy season for central america? http://surfinnhermosa.com/#livecam
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Good Afternoon. #117 and 120, the forecast this morning when I got up was for the storms to move into the Gulf. It is coming my way, just in time for the weekend. The forecast stated that we would see cloudy day tomorrow and rain into the evening. Let's see if it holds.
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Quoting ncstorm:
looks like the 12Z CMC switched gears and carries the moisture to the GOM instead of Florida



It will probably flip flop a bit next couple days, and then get a handle on it.
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Leave it to keeper to put everything in proper perspective. Nice work as usual, and Skypony never disappoints.
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JMA does the same thing



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Do you think all the clouds/showers/storms that are already out there will inhibit storm growth later today?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
Quoting 7544:
hi everyone looks another big rain event for so fl. this weekend . keep the umbrellas handy . wait watch and see
Long time no see..
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looks like the 12Z CMC switched gears and carries the moisture to the GOM instead of Florida



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
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115. 7544
hi everyone looks another big rain event for so fl. this weekend . keep the umbrellas handy . wait watch and see
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
113. Skyepony (Mod)
Windsat looks much healthier than a few weeks ago. Actually made a pass on that blob yesterday..


Never seen this anomily before..
Oceansat


ASCAT missed.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
100. hydrus 4:39 PM GMT on April 27, 2012 +0
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season...
Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2.
Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.Are you sure about that.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 10613


watchin waitin as soon as its seen you all will be first to know
Thank you..I thought I read somewhere that there was an April wave.
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I see the SPC updated their map as well as Dr. Forbes

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Tornadoes have hit metro areas before. Tornado outbreaks and outbreak sequences have killed hundreds before.
There were a lot of deaths considering todays technology.jmo
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100. hydrus 4:39 PM GMT on April 27, 2012 +0
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season...
Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2.
Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.Are you sure about that.
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 10613


watchin waitin as soon as its seen you all will be first to know
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting MTWX:


thats why his range is so wide... by increasing the coverage area from 25 mile radius to 50 miles you double your chance of getting a hit...

Pie are squared. You'd more than double.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Anybody coming to FL next might want to pack a poncho as it looks. Looks like some upper level energy is going to combine with deep tropical moisture coming up from the Bahamas and Caribbean.


eh...Most models have a powerful ridge next week over central Florida. So if anything, it will be hot and dry after this weekend. Most models(following the Euro's lead) have this well East of us by Tuesday. The GFS and CMC are outliers...
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I think the reason the Gov. hasn't suggested helmets is because, while it couldn't hurt, it's probably not the life saver people may think. That being said, many die in basements from large objects crushing down on them. Problem is they don't just hit your head, anywhere they hit you can be fatal. Think of that brave woman who earlier this year wrapped her kids in carpet and lay on them in the basement. Thanks to a heroic response by her neighbors she survived, but both her legs were severed. Her kids were unscathed, what a quick thinker she was, pretty amazing to think that constructively in a moment such as that. In the long run though they should probably suggest people do it because it can't hurt and would save some lives. For a couple thousand bucks constructing a mini basement safe-room, essentially a box anchored to the floor with a reinforced roof might be the better way to go. Wouldn't do much to save you in an F4 or F5, but F2-F3 damage is where falling debris in the basement is at its worst; it could very well save people from that.
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Possible tornado outbreak area:


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26541
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26541
102. MTWX
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Too high I think... With such a small area potentially under the gun there is a lot of room for a bust forecast today... I would've went with 7 at the most


thats why his range is so wide... by increasing the coverage area from 25 mile radius to 50 miles you double your chance of getting a hit...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
I can officially say, we are approaching the time to watch for our first Tropical wave of the season...
Earliest time for a tropical wave to emerge is May 2.
Start watching Mid-Africa over the weekend and into next week.
Are you sure about that.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
12Z GFS is showing a tremendous amount of rain across most of FL next week. Could be some localized flooding if this materializes.



Great to see, time to green things up !
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98. MTWX
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
MTWX, seems that there are 2 areas of 8. Is Kansas City under the gun?


Just noticed that and adjusted my comment accordingly...

Looks like KC may be just north of Dr. Forbes 8 rating.

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Anybody coming to FL next might want to pack a poncho as it looks. Looks like some upper level energy is going to combine with deep tropical moisture coming up from the Bahamas and Caribbean.
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Quoting MTWX:


Yep.

Friday April 27
AL north - less than 2
GA north - less than 2
IA extreme south night - 2
IL west-central night - 2
KS southeast - 8
KS central - 4
KS northeast - 2 to 3
MO extreme southwest - 8
MO northwest - 2
MO central - 2 to 3
MO east night - 2
MS northeast - less than 2
NC southwest, southeast - less than 2
NE extreme southeast - 2
OK northeast - 4
TN south half - less than 2
SC north, central - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less


Saturday April 28
IL south - 2 to 3
IN south - 2 to 3
KY north, central - 2 to 3
MO central, south - 2 to 3
OH extreme south - 2 to 3
OK northeast - 2 to 3
OK south-central - 2 or less
TX north-central - 2 or less
WV south - 2 to 3
Other areas - less than 2

Too high I think... With such a small area potentially under the gun there is a lot of room for a bust forecast today... I would've went with 7 at the most
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
95. MTWX
Quoting 1911maker:
Link

Can Helmets Cut Tornado Deaths? CDC Isn't So Sure

April 27, 2012

Tornadoes killed more than 500 people in the U.S. last year — the highest number in decades. Already this year, 63 people have died, and the tornado season doesn't hit its peak until June.

But tornadoes don't have to be as deadly. Experts say some deaths could be prevented if people would do one more thing when taking cover: wear a helmet. It's a message safety advocates are preaching, but that message hasn't resonated with federal officials just yet.


I could see someting like a motorcycle helmet (or as in the article, a baseball helmet) offering pretty decent protection, but a bicycle helmet not so much.
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Quoting Patrap:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:21 AM CDT on April 27, 2012 +14
A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.
Why would I ever read the blog?
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Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:21 AM CDT on April 27, 2012 +14
A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
MTWX, seems that there are 2 areas of 8. Is Kansas City under the gun?
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NOLA's Jazz fest begins today, Bruce Springsteen and Tom Petty tomorrow.

New Orleans Jazz Fest's best bets for the first weekend
Published: Wednesday, April 25, 2012, 9:51 AM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
The area for tornadoes is quite small so there should be a lot of diffrent views on the same storm. Its gona be a good time as long as everything stays out of populated areas.
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12Z GFS is showing a tremendous amount of rain across most of FL next week. Could be some localized flooding if this materializes.

This is only out 7 days!
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Link

Can Helmets Cut Tornado Deaths? CDC Isn't So Sure

April 27, 2012

Tornadoes killed more than 500 people in the U.S. last year — the highest number in decades. Already this year, 63 people have died, and the tornado season doesn't hit its peak until June.

But tornadoes don't have to be as deadly. Experts say some deaths could be prevented if people would do one more thing when taking cover: wear a helmet. It's a message safety advocates are preaching, but that message hasn't resonated with federal officials just yet.
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87. MTWX
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Is this from TWC?


Yep.

Friday April 27
AL north - less than 2
GA north - less than 2
IA extreme south night - 2
IL west-central night - 2
KS southeast - 8
KS central - 4
KS northeast - 2 to 3
MO extreme southwest - 8
MO northwest - 2
MO central - 2 to 3
MO east night - 2
MS northeast - less than 2
NC southwest, southeast - less than 2
NE extreme southeast - 2
OK northeast - 4
TN south half - less than 2
SC north, central - less than 2
Other areas - 1 or less


Saturday April 28
IL south - 2 to 3
IN south - 2 to 3
KY north, central - 2 to 3
MO central, south - 2 to 3
OH extreme south - 2 to 3
OK northeast - 2 to 3
OK south-central - 2 or less
TX north-central - 2 or less
WV south - 2 to 3
Other areas - less than 2
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
Well this story is shockingly timely

Study: Most victims knew Ala. twisters were coming

Most of the victims of last year's epic tornado outbreak in Alabama had at least one thing in common: They knew the storm was coming.

A year after the onslaught of dozens of twisters killed at least 250 people in Alabama and more elsewhere in the South, federal researchers are completing a study of who died and where they were when it happened. Among the conclusions so far: Nearly half of the people who died had been advised to take shelter. Indeed, most of them did.

But many of the tornadoes were so fierce that few structures were able to withstand them.


Just the absolute horror of knowing how awful something like that is coming at you and the terror that you really can't do anything about it....just ugh.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Gah, just to my east.

Gah, only a thousand miles to my southwest!

Good afternoon everybody.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
12Z GFS, Bahamas get soaked. 4-day total PCPN


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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