Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

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A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Quoting LargoFl:
The Largest earthquake in Florida was in...........Link

Massachusetts beats that easily! Our largest quake was somewhere between a 6.0 and a 6.3 in 1755... Experts have estimated that a similar quake today would cause hundreds of deaths and billions in damage in Boston.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
The 1926 storm was described by the U.S. Weather Bureau in Miami as "probably the most destructive hurricane ever to strike the United States." It hit Fort Lauderdale, Dania, Hollywood, Hallandale and Miami. The death toll is estimated to be from 325 to perhaps as many as 800. No storm in previous history had done as much property damage.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

umm down here its legal to drink drinking age is 18 and legal to get a gun and other stuff

That's a good combination.
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The Largest earthquake in Florida was in...........Link
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN GA...WRN AND CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271842Z - 272045Z

A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NERN GA
MOVING EWD INTO WRN SC. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG
A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE PERTURBATION IN
THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS BAND WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FAR ERN GA AND WRN/CNTRL SC. LATEST SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. INCREASED
SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH /30 TO 40 KTS/
FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. CONSEQUENTLY...A MULTICELL CLUSTER
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND...GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT DCAPE VALUES AOA 900 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS
IS POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER.. 04/27/2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
I think we'll see the moderate risk removed at the SPC's next outlook... Too much dry air for any significant number of storms. This could end up being one of those days where we are only tracking one or two supercells, but these supercells end up becoming very dangerous because they will have no other storms to inhibit them. However, because of the lack of coverage I do expect the moderate risk to be taken down.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

umm down here its legal to drink drinking age is 18 and legal to get a gun and other stuff
Very interesting..
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Population centers..
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Quoting hydrus:
You are a legal adult now, but still cant have a brew..Go figure..:(

umm down here its legal to drink drinking age is 18 and legal to get a gun and other stuff
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Orlando forecast.....................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
Quoting weatherbro:


The subtropical jet is going to be way to weak to spit out anything at us aloft next week. It looks like the Bahama's and the southwest Atlantic just might see our first tropical/subtropical depression. Only South Florida will benefit this weekend(unless per rare chance the GFS turns out to be right which given the current teleconnections, I doubt).


Our rain if we get won't arrive until Tuesday on.
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Quoting Grothar:


They are forecasting very heavy rains for the Bahamas and moved us back down to 50% chance of rain.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
Kinda surprised they haven't issued a Nader Watch as of yet....
Or is it going to start later in KS?
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TO SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271829Z - 272000Z

SEVERE THREAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
APPEARS TO BE DELAYED IN TIMING AS TSTM INITIATION IN S-CNTRL KS HAS
BEEN CURTAILED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
WITH STRONGER HEATING NOW
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...CONVECTION WILL GROW ACROSS N-CNTRL
KS AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP S/SEWD TOWARDS SERN KS. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BETWEEN 19-21Z.


SUBSTANTIAL DRYING NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SPREAD ACROSS
S-CNTRL KS WITH LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE S OF THE COMPACT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER NWRN KS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
SUPPRESSING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR S OF THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
THE TRIPLE POINT /LOCATED AROUND 30 S HLC AT 18Z/. WITH INDIVIDUAL
CELL MOTIONS SHIFTING N/NEWD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT ARCED
SEWD INTO SERN KS...CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH
SEVERE INTENSITY. 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY REMAIN TIED ALONG AND JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT IN THE LOBE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.
STILL...WITH A 50 MILE WIDE AREA OF STRONGER HEATING OCCURRING
BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND REMNANT STRATUS DECK IN CNTRL KS...THIS
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/TORNADO THREATS.


..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It did that yesterday too. I think the GFS is right because look at this below as it appears the tropical moisture is going to come up and meet this disturbance coming across the northern Gulf. Infact there are 2 of them that come by next week.

Notice the kink in the jet west of FL.


This is also the reason why the rain at first is focused on the westside of FL.


The subtropical jet is going to be way to weak to spit out anything at us aloft next week. It looks like the Bahama's and the southwest Atlantic just might see our first tropical/subtropical depression. Only South Florida will benefit this weekend(unless per rare chance the GFS turns out to be right which given the current teleconnections, I doubt).
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Not sure if it was mentioned earlier, but we had a few Tornadoes go through SE Colorado last night. Got a good light show with a few of the storms around Denver along with some much needed rain.

COC011-061-099-280100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY PUEBLO COLORADO
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
859 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY PUEBLO COLORADO.

ONE OR MORE TORNADOES SWEPT THROUGH PORTIONS OF PROWERS...KIOWA
AND POSSIBLY BENT COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY
12 AM AND 3 AM MDT. THE TORNADOES HAVE CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE
TO HOMES...POWER SUPPLY SYSTEMS AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POWER IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY...AND POSSIBLY LONGER IN SOME LOCATIONS. POWER LINES ARE LYING
ACROSS ROADWAYS AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED DANGEROUS.

AS A RESULT OF THE HAZARDOUS NATURE OF THE SITUATION...THE EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OF PROWERS COUNTY HAS REQUESTED THAT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE NOTIFY ALL PERSONS IN AND AROUND PROWERS...KIOWA
AND BENT COUNTIES TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION.

EMERGENCY SERVICES ARE WORKING AS FAST AS POSSIBLE TO RESTORE THE
LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE. PLEASE BE PATIENT.
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Quoting LargoFl:
from this view it looks like the core of this system is moving east,not moving in florida's direction right now


They are forecasting very heavy rains for the Bahamas and moved us back down to 50% chance of rain.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38502
Quoting StormGoddess:
Sorry guys I'm just trying to correct a misspelled word down there and this keeps happening. Ok just consider "petal" changed to "pedal" lol.


Nothing like "flowery" speech!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
Quoting Patrap:
NASA Space Shuttle Enterprise/747 Flyover New York City this am.



Extremely cool vid. thanks for posting it..I always wondered how they attach that shuttle to the aircraft..I will have to look it up..Would not be good to leave any loose connections.
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Quoting Patrap:
from this view it looks like the core of this system is moving east,not moving in florida's direction right now
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
18
You are a legal adult now, but still cant have a brew..Go figure..:(
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys jest in case you did not know today is my Birthday
Happy Birthday
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3 KM helicity values now, and at 6 hours from now..
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Quoting hydrus:
That does look pretty bad.


Yeah this is a very significant dryline punching across Kansas. It's only a matter of time before tornadoes start forming.


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Quoting hydrus:
Happy Birthday!..How old now.?
18
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


That does look pretty bad.
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Quoting Grothar:


Who did that map for you Monet?
Van Gogh...Red Vineyards near Arles (1888), the only painting en:Vincent van Gogh is certainly known to have sold during his lifetime. Now in the en:Pushkin Museum of Fine Arts, Moscow.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys jest in case you did not know today is my Birthday
Happy Birthday!..How old now.?
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Quoting hydrus:
Moisture slowly moving in to FL.


Who did that map for you Monet?
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NWS is no longer showing the low for Florida.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
Squall line in Kansas is beginning to look rather nasty...

Some interesting weather history being made in the Indianapolis area for the months of March and April.

Indianapolis NWS

Another Rare Occurrence for Spring 2012
The Indianapolis area will mark another rare occurrence for Spring 2012...the average temperature for April will be about 2 degrees cooler than March.  Typically the average monthly temperature increases nearly 11 degrees from March to April.   This will be only the second time since 1872 when March was warmer than April.  The only other occurrence was in 1907.It is interesting to note that both events were caused by either a record warm or record cold month.  In 1907 March was followed by the coldest April of record.  This year a record warm March is followed by an April with near normal temperatures.The record warmth of March resulted from an upper level ridge that remained over the Indianapolis area from March 14-22.  In April an upper level trough dominated the Indianapolis weather for much of the second half of the month.This unusual phenomenon is not confined to the Indianapolis area.  Click here for a web story about this in northern Indiana and here for northern Illinois.Weather records at Indianapolis began in 1871.  Unfortunately all of the temperature data is missing for April 1871.

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hey guys jest in case you did not know today is my Birthday
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GOES Atmospheric Animator
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Moisture slowly moving in to FL.
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Quoting 7544:


yeap hi hydrus the blobs keep me checking in starting early this season i see lol
Indeed..Our Caribbean blob seems to be getting some moisture from the Pacific side.
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Dryline looks to be moving east pretty quick today.

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140. 7544
Quoting hydrus:
Long time no see..


yeap hi hydrus the blobs keep me checking in starting early this season i see lol
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NASA Space Shuttle Enterprise/747 Flyover New York City this am.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Kansas City
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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Quoting StormGoddess:

Choices nowadays other than being a sitting duck are:
a. Completely underground in a storm shelter.
b. In a vehicle, heading away from the storm, petal to the metal.

We have used option b this year once already. Most likely we will be doing it again. : )

Just thought I would drop by to say hi!
Have a great day everyone.
Hi, SG.
I hear ya.
:)
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Not to take anything away from the one-year anniversary this April 27, thought this might be interesting to some of you. NWS Norman has put together a history page for the 100th anniversary of the Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak on April 27-28, 1912. Includes

~Weather Maps

~Tornado Table shows 6 F4, 6 F3, 8 F2, 1 F1/F0.

and more.

"The tornado data are based on original U. S. Weather Bureau reports, as well as research done by Tom Grazulis of the Tornado Project, NOAA scientist Don Burgess, and members of the NWS Norman staff."
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oops
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.
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Sorry guys I'm just trying to correct a misspelled word down there and this keeps happening. Ok just consider "petal" changed to "pedal" lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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