Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

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A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Quoting kwgirl:
Yes, people on the west coast of Florida need to especially worry about October storms. Like Wilma, they look to be pushed across the peninsula by strong moving fronts that are typical of fall weather. I always thought the strong storms of September were a problem, but I fear the October storms.
yes me too, so far we have been lucky thank goodness
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys jest in case you did not know today is my Birthday


Happy Birthday Kid
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4847
getting a lil serious out there...........TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

TORNADO WATCH 194 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC001-003-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-031-035-03 7-041-045-049-
053-059-061-073-079-085-089-099-105-107-111-113-1 15-117-123-125-
127-131-133-139-141-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-1 73-177-183-191-
197-201-205-207-280200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0194.120427T1915Z-120428T0200Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE CLAY CLOUD
COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD
DICKINSON DOUGLAS ELK
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON
JEWELL LABETTE LINCOLN
LINN LYON MARION
MARSHALL MCPHERSON MITCHELL
MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEMAHA
NEOSHO OSAGE OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE
SMITH SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON
$$


ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...EAX...SGF...
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

MON-FRI...THE GFS TREND IS FOR THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT NORTH
VERY SLOWLY AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER MOISTURE TO SPREAD GRADUALLY UP
THE PENINSULA.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND WITH POPS CAPPED AT
20 PERCENT. THE LATEST MOS POPS ARE HIGHER...BUT ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO MAKE POP/WEATHER
ADJUSTMENTS.

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Quoting LargoFl:
1921 hurricane devastated Clearwater Florida..Link
Yes, people on the west coast of Florida need to especially worry about October storms. Like Wilma, they look to be pushed across the peninsula by strong moving fronts that are typical of fall weather. I always thought the strong storms of September were a problem, but I fear the October storms.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


With the way young people like myself are maturing more quickly nowadays, it would make sense to lower the age for things to 18 or some 16. Examples and my reasoning:

16:

Drive (Most states are 16 or even 15 anyway..)
Vote (So you can make an impact in your community before college)
Smoke (Although I don't do it anyway, it would save time for police and school officials when people already do it anyway. You also already know it's bad for you by the time you are 10 anyway....)

18:

Alcohol (If you can join the military, why can't you drink?)
Military (For America)
Property (No change)
Taxes (No change)
Guns (Yes, it varies from state to state. But what difference does 3 years make? Also same reasons as Alcohol.)
Marijuana (Similar to smoking as in waste of law enforcement time, and I think that it should be like alcohol in regulation and taxation and keep it out of the hands of criminals)

I agree to disagree with everyone!

Wow, the weather is boring if this is our conversation....LOL!

At 16, I was WAY too influenced by what I saw on TV and what my friends did. I couldn't wrap my head around the topics of the day with politics that well then. I followed my parents beliefs closely, and was honestly more concerned with school and more mundane things, like who I was going to homecoming with.

For smoking... as a nursing student, I'd love to see the incidence of smoking go DOWN, not up.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


It's potentially die for their country. I have friends that are in JROTC, and they do it more because it looks good on college apps than they love the country! Although there is definitely those who are like that, they are probably the minority.

JROTC is not the military, exactly. It is a training program that leads into the military, but it the commitments made in JROTC are not a binding contract. They also don't have the little warning about the fact that you will defend the country at all costs - including your own life. Everyone that I know that has gone into the military has done so with the knowledge that there is a chance they may be deployed to an area where they may be shot at, and may die for their country. Heck, when I was in Air Force ROTC (for a semester, before I was medically disqualified from the program), I had to sign a statement to that effect.

This is why I so strongly salute all of those who have served our country in the armed forces. I have family that has served in the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines. All did it because they wanted to serve their country, and potentially pay the ultimate price. Anyone who goes into the military because "it looks good on a resume" is a disgrace to the military. You go into the military because you want to serve your country - not for personal advancement.

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Quoting hydrus:
My Grandma talked about quite a few. Some were terrible and she considered leaving for good. She loved Florida and stayed. She past away last December, and had a long and happy life..:)


sorry to hear that :(
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So, you think Hurricanes are bad here huh.................................The planet Jupiter has a hurricane which has been going on for over 300 years. It can be seen as a red spot on the planet. This hurricane on Jupiter is bigger than the Earth itself............................................ ...............can you imagine...a hurricane here, lasting 300 years? omg
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On another note, I just got a meso signature with this storm on my GRAnalyst...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

KSC123-141-272000-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-120427T2000Z/
OSBORNE KS-MITCHELL KS-
235 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
MITCHELL AND NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TIPTON...OR 19 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAWKER CITY AND GLEN ELDER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 9854 3956 9853 3956 9821 3927 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 212DEG 17KT 3940 9844
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN
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1921 hurricane devastated Clearwater Florida..Link
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What's with all the blue?

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7290
Quoting hydrus:
My Grandma talked about quite a few. Some were terrible and she considered leaving for good. She loved Florida and stayed. She past away last December, and had a long and happy life..:)


Sorry to hear that buddy.
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Quoting islander101010:
a early rainy season for central america? http://surfinnhermosa.com/#livecam


Thanks for the link to that surf cam.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4847
Here's a little larger image.
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some facts on Hurricane Katrina you may not know about.....gee the aftermath must have been simply awful...........Link
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Quoting hydrus:
My Grandma talked about quite a few. Some were terrible and she considered leaving for good. She loved Florida and stayed. She past this past December, and had a long and happy life..:)
My sympathies to you Hydrus. Bless her Heart. I still miss my Mom, gone three years now. We now have angels looking out for us.:)
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This year's SSTs are catching up 2011's and the trend should continue as NAO is predicted to be negative soon. In addition, the high caribbean moisture means high atmospheric instability... and I'm actually wondering how these factors will influence the upcoming hurricane season. I remember 2009 was dry throughout the caribbean basin all year, which is not the case this year.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
For any doubters out there the CPC agrees with the GFS. CPC is calling for very heavy rains for West Central & SW FL next week.

fingers crossed it happens stormtracker, ground is bone dry now
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Quoting kwgirl:
No teenager enlists in the military to "die for their country". They are wanting a job or want to "get out of jail free" or used to when I was of that age. Teenagers don't die! That's what they all think before getting behind the wheel drunk or stoned.


It's potentially die for their country. I have friends that are in JROTC, and they do it more because it looks good on college apps than they love the country! Although there is definitely those who are like that, they are probably the minority.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Wow... Dr. greg Forbes on the weather channel issued a torcon of 8 in Southeast Kansas and south west Missouri
it looks like its going to get dangerous out there, hope people are paying attention to their local weather reports and alerts.
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Quoting kwgirl:
I remember talking to my boss about that hurricane. He was a young boy when it hit. Lots of water!
My Grandma talked about quite a few. Some were terrible and she considered leaving for good. She loved Florida and stayed. She past away last December, and had a long and happy life..:)
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Wow... Dr. greg Forbes on the weather channel issued a torcon of 8 in Southeast Kansas and south west Missouri
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For any doubters out there the CPC agrees with the GFS. CPC is calling for very heavy rains for West Central & SW FL next week.



Days 6-10

Days 8-14

THE 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FEATURE A RETROGRESSION OF THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND A TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT AMONG THESE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAS IMPROVED
SINCE YESTERDAY, A LARGE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

A MAJORITY OF 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) INDEX LATER IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. 0Z/6Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WEST FROM THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC TO THE DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RETROGRESSION OF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC RIDGE FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THESE FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED ODDS FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ELEVATES THE ODDS FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST
. A PERSISTENT AREA OF
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS MAINTAIN ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND ACROSS ALASKA.

A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN DUE TO: A WEAKER TROUGH SHIFTING AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST/ALASKAN
PANHANDLE AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AT THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN STATES
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Quoting jeffs713:

And by the time you can have the second, your chances with the first (assuming you are a guy) are out the window.

In a way, it makes some sense that you have to be 21 to drink. But at the same time, if you can make the decision to potentially die for your country, I'm thinking that you have the mental awareness to make the right decision regarding drinking.


With the way young people like myself are maturing more quickly nowadays, it would make sense to lower the age for things to 18 or some 16. Examples and my reasoning:

16:

Drive (Most states are 16 or even 15 anyway..)
Vote (So you can make an impact in your community before college)
Smoke (Although I don't do it anyway, it would save time for police and school officials when people already do it anyway. You also already know it's bad for you by the time you are 10 anyway....)

18:

Alcohol (If you can join the military, why can't you drink?)
Military (For America)
Property (No change)
Taxes (No change)
Guns (Yes, it varies from state to state. But what difference does 3 years make? Also same reasons as Alcohol.)
Marijuana (Similar to smoking as in waste of law enforcement time, and I think that it should be like alcohol in regulation and taxation and keep it out of the hands of criminals)

I agree to disagree with everyone!

Wow, the weather is boring if this is our conversation....LOL!
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Quoting jeffs713:

And by the time you can have the second, your chances with the first (assuming you are a guy) are out the window.

In a way, it makes some sense that you have to be 21 to drink. But at the same time, if you can make the decision to potentially die for your country, I'm thinking that you have the mental awareness to make the right decision regarding drinking.
No teenager enlists in the military to "die for their country". They are wanting a job or want to "get out of jail free" or used to when I was of that age. Teenagers don't die! That's what they all think before getting behind the wheel drunk or stoned.
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Alrighty guys! Good afternoon! Just had a religion test and now I can get on my phone...

Saw earlier that the carribean has some hugggeee storms popping
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Quoting jeffs713:

And by the time you can have the second, your chances with the first (assuming you are a guy) are out the window.

In a way, it makes some sense that you have to be 21 to drink. But at the same time, if you can make the decision to potentially die for your country, I'm thinking that you have the mental awareness to make the right decision regarding drinking.
I remember when it was 18 and 19 here in the U.S.- President Reagan threaten states that did not raise the drinking age to 21 with removal of money to create more roads. If you had military I.D., you were allowed to buy alcohol back then. In 1984. the law passed that 21 years of age was to be the minimum age to buy.
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It is hard to wrap my head around 10 BILLION in damage.

No one with active military ID gets refused, 18 or not.
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well I live in a coastal county and my elevation is 45 feet above sea level,but only roughly about 3-4 miles from the coast....here is the hurricane flood info for my county..do YOU know yours?...........In a worst-case scenario — a large Category 5 storm moving slowly from south to north and making landfall at the upper reaches of Pinellas County — the storm surge in Pinellas could be roughly 30 feet, according to data from the National Hurricane Center. At that height, a one-story home at an elevation of 20 feet would have water to its rooftop.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:



And by the time you can have the second, your chances with the first (assuming you are a guy) are out the window.

In a way, it makes some sense that you have to be 21 to drink. But at the same time, if you can make the decision to potentially die for your country, I'm thinking that you have the mental awareness to make the right decision regarding drinking.
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Quoting jeffs713:

If you lose your internet access because of that, you shouldn't be on the internet. The Trojan causing the whole issue has been out for a full year, and just about every malware/spyware scanner out there has a patch for it.

i kinda agree, i tested mine, i am ok but many dont even know about this
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Quoting LargoFl:
sorry see if this works............Link

If you lose your internet access because of that, you shouldn't be on the internet. The Trojan causing the whole issue has been out for a full year, and just about every malware/spyware scanner out there has a patch for it.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


That is a beautiful post..God Bless You..
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED


The same counties that got hit in the last moderate risk threat..

. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON
BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA
CHEROKEE CLAY CLOUD
COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD
DICKINSON DOUGLAS ELK
ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GEARY
GREENWOOD HARVEY JACKSON
JEWELL LABETTE LINCOLN
LINN LYON MARION
MARSHALL MCPHERSON MITCHELL
MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEMAHA
NEOSHO OSAGE OSBORNE
OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO
REPUBLIC RICE RILEY
SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE
SMITH SUMNER WABAUNSEE
WASHINGTON WILSON WOODSON
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13430
Quoting fmbill:


Old enough to die for your country but not old enough to buy beer. LOL!


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Quoting LargoFl:
The 1926 storm was described by the U.S. Weather Bureau in Miami as "probably the most destructive hurricane ever to strike the United States." It hit Fort Lauderdale, Dania, Hollywood, Hallandale and Miami. The death toll is estimated to be from 325 to perhaps as many as 800. No storm in previous history had done as much property damage.
I remember talking to my boss about that hurricane. He was a young boy when it hit. Lots of water!
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA
KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FROM A
STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVER WRN KS. HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS CONTINUING TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING EARLY STAGES OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. CURRENT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD
NERN KS...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SERN KS. VAD AND WIND PROFILER DATA SUPPORT SUPERCELL
FORMATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...WEISS

Hazard Tornadoes EF2 Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt Wind
Moderate Low
Severe Hail 2" Hail
Moderate Moderate


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Quoting LargoFl:
Off Topic But This is an Important news article here,Will You Lose your Web Connection come July??..an FBI warning it seems..........Link
sorry see if this works............Link
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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA
KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FORCING FROM A
STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING OVER WRN KS. HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS CONTINUING TO
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AND WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH RADAR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING EARLY STAGES OF DEEPENING CONVECTION. CURRENT
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD
NERN KS...WHILE OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SERN KS. VAD AND WIND PROFILER DATA SUPPORT SUPERCELL
FORMATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...WEISS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7290
Off Topic But This is an Important news article here,Will You Lose your Web Connection come July??..an FBI warning it seems..........Link
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Quoting bappit:

That's a good combination.

sayin the same thing
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think we'll see the moderate risk removed at the SPC's next outlook... Too much dry air for any significant number of storms. This could end up being one of those days where we are only tracking one or two supercells, but these supercells end up becoming very dangerous because they will have no other storms to inhibit them. However, because of the lack of coverage I do expect the moderate risk to be taken down.
The area is so small 1 or 2 supercells as you described would meet the criteria for the moderate risk.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3813
Quoting fmbill:


Old enough to die for your country but not old enough to buy beer. LOL!
Unbelievable..jmo..:)
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Tornado watch 194 will be issued in a moment
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7290
1926 Great Miami, Florida Hurricane

6 - 22 September, 1926

The "Great Miami" Hurricane was first spotted as a tropical wave located 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on September 11th. The system moved quickly westward and intensified to hurricane strength as it moved to the north of Puerto Rico on the 15th. Winds were reported to be nearly 150 mph as the hurricane passed over the Turks Islands on the 16th and through the Bahamas on the 17th. Little in the way of meteorological information on the approaching hurricane was available to the Weather Bureau in Miami. As a result, hurricane warnings were not issued until midnight on September 18th, which gave the booming population of South Florida little notice of the impending disaster.

The Category 4 hurricane's eye moved directly over Miami Beach and downtown Miami during the morning hours of the 18th. This cyclone produced the highest sustained winds ever recorded in the United States at the time, and the barometric pressure fell to 27.61 inches as the eye passed over Miami. A storm surge of nearly 15 feet was reported in Coconut Grove. Many casualties resulted as people ventured outdoors during the half-hour lull in the storm as the eye passed overhead. Most residents, having not experienced a hurricane, believed that the storm had passed during the lull. They were suddenly trapped and exposed to the eastern half of the hurricane shortly thereafter. Every building in the downtown district of Miami was damaged or destroyed. The town of Moore Haven on the south side of Lake Okeechobee was completely flooded by lake surge from the hurricane. Hundreds of people in Moore Haven alone were killed by this surge, which left behind floodwaters in the town for weeks afterward.

The hurricane continued northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and approached Pensacola on September 20th. The storm nearly stalled to the south of Pensacola later that day and buffeted the central Gulf Coast with 24 hours of heavy rainfall, hurricane force winds, and storm surge. The hurricane weakened as it moved inland over Louisiana later on the 21st. Nearly every pier, warehouse, and vessel on Pensacola Bay was destroyed.The great hurricane of 1926 ended the economic boom in South Florida and would be a $90 billion disaster had it occurred in recent times. With a highly transient population across southeastern Florida during the 1920s, the death toll is uncertain since more than 800 people were missing in the aftermath of the cyclone. A Red Cross report lists 373 deaths and 6,381 injuries as a result of the hurricane.View the PDF for the full 1926 Seasonal Report from the Monthly Weather Review.
Quoting LargoFl:
The 1926 storm was described by the U.S. Weather Bureau in Miami as "probably the most destructive hurricane ever to strike the United States." It hit Fort Lauderdale, Dania, Hollywood, Hallandale and Miami. The death toll is estimated to be from 325 to perhaps as many as 800. No storm in previous history had done as much property damage.
The experts agree that The great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was one of the largest hurricanes ever to strike the U.S.
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Quoting hydrus:
You are a legal adult now, but still cant have a brew..Go figure..:(


Old enough to die for your country but not old enough to buy beer. LOL!
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Quoting LargoFl:
The Largest earthquake in Florida was in...........Link

Massachusetts beats that easily! Our largest quake was somewhere between a 6.0 and a 6.3 in 1755... Experts have estimated that a similar quake today would cause hundreds of deaths and billions in damage in Boston.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7290

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.