Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

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A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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283. aspectre
9:15 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
261 washingtonian115: I hope when they do 2010 Igor will a 5
263 jeffs713: I don't think they will upgrade Igor, since they already did a post-analysis of the storm after the 2010 season. The likely reason they are re-analyzing the storms from the past is to make it consistent, and do reanalysis of all storms. It doesn't make sense to reanalyze the info twice without any additional, new information showing up.

Without having read on the whys&wherefores of the report, I'd guess that many (if not all) of the upgrades were due to reevalutation (* and) of structural damages caused by the individual storms:
as in "Whoa, even a strong Cat.3 couldn't have knocked down any of those(particular)buildings."

Whereas Igor 2010 didn't knock down much of anything -- having weakened greatly before brushing by Bermuda -- and was already extratropical before finishing its passage across Newfoundland. Flooding there was the main cause of damage.
So there's really nothing left to reevaluate that hadn't already been taken into account during the post-storm and post-season analyses.

* by comparing winds and air-pressures on nearby ships against their individual distances from each other to better calculate probable TropicalCyclone center locations, probable minimum pressures, and probable maximum surface wind speeds.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
282. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:15 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
April 2012 is running below average. The year as a whole remains well above average though.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
281. nigel20
9:13 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting hydrus:
Another storm that was horrible beyond words was The Great Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928..1928 Okeechobee hurricane
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane
San Felipe Segundo Hurricane Category 5 hurricane (SSHS)
1928 Okeechobee hurricane
1928 Okeechobee hurricane
Formed September 6, 1928
Dissipated September 20, 1928
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure ≤ 929 mbar (hPa); 27.43 inHg
Fatalities 4,078+
Damage $100 million (1928 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Eastern Seaboard
Part of the 1928 Atlantic hurricane season

The Okeechobee hurricane, or San Felipe Segundo hurricane, was a deadly hurricane that struck the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and Florida in September of the 1928 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 2010, it is the only recorded hurricane to strike Puerto Rico at Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and one of the ten most intense ever recorded to make landfall in the United States.

The hurricane caused devastation throughout its path. As many as 1,200 people were killed in Guadeloupe. The storm directly struck Puerto Rico at peak strength, killing at least 300 and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. In South Florida at least 2,500 were killed when a storm surge from Lake Okeechobee breached the dike surrounding the lake, flooding an area covering hundreds of square miles.[1] In total, the hurricane killed at least 4,078 people and caused around US$100 million ($1.35 billion 2012 USD) in damages over the course of its path.This is a very famous photo from the storm.Hurricane winds drive a 10-foot 2X4 through a palm tree in Puerto Rico...This link is well worth the time. and shows the extent of what a large and intense hurricane can do to a significant part of the Earth...Link

The death toll in Guadeloupe was very high...considering that Gaudeloupe is relatively small
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
279. nigel20
9:06 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:

Afternoon, Nigel. Hunkering down for the big storms soon.

Good afternoon Eugene
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
278. thunderblogger
9:06 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Sunday will be 40 days without a decent rain here, 10 day outlook looks dry and unusually warm. Not good since this time of the year is suppose to be very wet here.


Do you ever have anything positive to verbalize? Talk about Debbie Downer.....
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
276. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:03 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:

How about Earl then. Do you give him an upgrade?

No, Earl is fine.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi my friend. Do you have the link to those updated revisions?

Link

All the letters/numbers are hard to understand but that's all I can supply for you as the easy-to-read HURDAT hasn't been upgraded for these changes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
273. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:59 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting EugeneTillman:

Igor will not make it. Never quite had the punch needed for category 5 intensity.

A strong little bugger. Just not cat 5 threshold. Sorry Igor.

I disagree. Igor likely reached Category 5 intensity status for a few hours on the afternoon of September 14. The NHC claims that Dvorak intensities were not high enough to upgrade, but I saw all 7.0s (Category 5) that afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
271. nigel20
8:54 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Good afternoon all
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7888
270. bohonkweatherman
8:54 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Sunday will be 40 days without a decent rain here, 10 day outlook looks dry and unusually warm. Not good since this time of the year is suppose to be very wet here.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
269. dabirds
8:53 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
209. Looks even wetter here in C IL, looked at a couple of long range (7 & 10 day) and both had rain chance every day. Hope not, grass will get out of control. Farmers won't mind too much - just about all the corn is in and many beans too - unless floods out and replants necessary. We're shown 2+ inch, but if spread out and no one heavy event shouldn't get much flooding. Hope all to our west stay safe this p.m.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
268. Tropicsweatherpr
8:52 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And another has been upgraded...

* 1932 Cuba Hurricane (175 mph - strongest November hurricane on record)
* 1933 Hurricane Eleven (160 mph)
* 1933 Hurricane Fifteen (160 mph)


Hi my friend. Do you have the link to those updated revisions?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14076
267. StormGoddess
8:51 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Nothing like "flowery" speech!

LOL Hey there Grothar. : )
Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
266. PlazaRed
8:50 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Evening Everybody,
You sure get it rough over in the States, North Easters, Extreme temps and now this new threat.
All we have to look at is rain and droughts.
I got this wind map from an 'Associate,' if you copy and paste it there are some very interesting pattern, vortex into Kansas.

http://hint.fm/wind/

And here's the sea currents version of it:-

http://gizmodo.com/5896376/time+lapse-of-ocean-cu rrents-looks-like-a-living-van-gogh-painting

They are all connected!

We sure hope you people stay safe tonight.



Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2066
265. StormGoddess
8:49 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Hi, SG.
I hear ya.
:)


Hey there BF!
Guess what happened the other day? We are in downtown Shawnee and realize suddenly that a bad storm is approaching. We asked the staff at the bank what would they do if a tornado was about to hit. One of the ladies replied quite matter-of-factly "We would kick all of the customers out and we would take shelter."

Then we go to the library and say that a tornadic storm cell is approaching. One of the ladies says "That is the reason we are closing for a while. Do you know where the nearest shelter is at city hall?"

As the shutters and doors were all being slammed down shut all around us, we realize that it is "every man for himself" as far as most business and almost anything else is concerned. The only thing open still is the chinese restaurant.

City hall didn't sound appealing so we go pedal to the metal down south towards Sulphur at breakneck speeds.

After the storm system passed we went back and ate at the chinese restaurant. : )

Member Since: June 10, 2010 Posts: 6 Comments: 578
264. hydrus
8:48 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Another storm that was horrible beyond words was The Great Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928..1928 Okeechobee hurricane
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane
San Felipe Segundo Hurricane Category 5 hurricane (SSHS)
1928 Okeechobee hurricane
1928 Okeechobee hurricane
Formed September 6, 1928
Dissipated September 20, 1928
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
160 mph (260 km/h)
Lowest pressure ≤ 929 mbar (hPa); 27.43 inHg
Fatalities 4,078+
Damage $100 million (1928 USD)
Areas affected Lesser Antilles, Guadeloupe, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Eastern Seaboard
Part of the 1928 Atlantic hurricane season

The Okeechobee hurricane, or San Felipe Segundo hurricane, was a deadly hurricane that struck the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and Florida in September of the 1928 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 2010, it is the only recorded hurricane to strike Puerto Rico at Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and one of the ten most intense ever recorded to make landfall in the United States.

The hurricane caused devastation throughout its path. As many as 1,200 people were killed in Guadeloupe. The storm directly struck Puerto Rico at peak strength, killing at least 300 and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. In South Florida at least 2,500 were killed when a storm surge from Lake Okeechobee breached the dike surrounding the lake, flooding an area covering hundreds of square miles.[1] In total, the hurricane killed at least 4,078 people and caused around US$100 million ($1.35 billion 2012 USD) in damages over the course of its path.This is a very famous photo from the storm.Hurricane winds drive a 10-foot 2X4 through a palm tree in Puerto Rico...This link is well worth the time. and shows the extent of what a large and intense hurricane can do to a significant part of the Earth...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
263. jeffs713
8:47 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope when they do 2010 Igor will a 5.
I don't think they will upgrade Igor, since they already did a post-analysis of the storm after the 2010 season. The likely reason they are re-analyzing the storms from the past is to make it consistent, and do reanalysis of all storms. It doesn't make sense to reanalyze the info twice without any additional, new information showing up.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
262. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:45 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope when they do 2010 Igor will a 5.

Me too, but they take a long time to go through all the seasons. It will be several years from now before they make it to last decade.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
261. washingtonian115
8:42 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On a tropical cyclone-related note, the National Hurricane Center is slowly going through all recorded hurricane seasons and making changes to storms' intensities. They have just finished 1931-1935 and the result is a brand new Category 5 hurricane...in November. It's previous intensity was thought to be 135 mph, but upon reanalysis, has been upgraded to 175 mph. This makes the 1932 Cuba hurricane the strongest in history.

Over 3100 fatalities in Cuba.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow, a storm that formed during the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane as well.
I hope when they do 2010 Igor will a 5.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16456
260. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:42 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
And another has been upgraded...

* 1932 Cuba Hurricane (175 mph - strongest November hurricane on record)
* 1933 Hurricane Eleven (160 mph)
* 1933 Hurricane Fifteen (160 mph)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
259. PedleyCA
8:41 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
So, you think Hurricanes are bad here huh.................................The planet Jupiter has a hurricane which has been going on for over 300 years. It can be seen as a red spot on the planet. This hurricane on Jupiter is bigger than the Earth itself............................................ ...............can you imagine...a hurricane here, lasting 300 years? omg


How about the hurricane on the South Pole of Saturn?
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5704
258. CybrTeddy
8:39 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On a tropical cyclone-related note, the National Hurricane Center is slowly going through all recorded hurricane seasons and making changes to storms' intensities. They have just finished 1931-1935 and the result is a brand new Category 5 hurricane...in November. It's previous intensity was thought to be 135 mph, but upon reanalysis, has been upgraded to 175 mph. This makes the 1932 Cuba hurricane the strongest in history.

Over 3100 fatalities in Cuba.


Looks like two Category 5s where added in the 1933 Atlantic Hurricane season too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23654
257. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:36 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Wow, a storm that formed during the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane as well.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
256. hurricanehunter27
8:34 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Very strong rotation.


The cell just a bit south seems to be strong as well.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
255. MAweatherboy1
8:31 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On a tropical cyclone-related note, the National Hurricane Center is slowly going through all recorded hurricane seasons and making changes to storms' intensities. They have just finished 1931-1935 and the result is a brand new Category 5 hurricane...in November. It's previous intensity was thought to be 135 mph, but upon reanalysis, has been upgraded to 175 mph. This makes the 1932 Cuba hurricane the strongest in history.

Over 3100 fatalities in Cuba.

I think that's a good idea... Not only does it improve historical correctness, but analyzing intensities of each past storm could help with intensity estimates and forecasts in the future.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
254. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:31 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Must be a cursed day...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...SCOTTSVILLE...JEWELL AND RANDALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9831 3962 9825 3975 9813 3971 9793
3953 9792 3943 9794 3934 9808
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 205DEG 36KT 3946 9814
HAIL <.75IN

$$

GUERRERO

Very strong rotation.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
253. hurricanehunter27
8:29 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Already a tornado warning.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3841
252. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:29 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
On a tropical cyclone-related note, the National Hurricane Center is slowly going through all recorded hurricane seasons and making changes to storms' intensities. They have just finished 1931-1935 and the result is a brand new Category 5 hurricane...in November. It's previous intensity was thought to be 135 mph, but upon reanalysis, has been upgraded to 175 mph. This makes the 1932 Cuba hurricane the strongest in history.

Over 3100 fatalities in Cuba.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
251. MAweatherboy1
8:28 PM GMT on April 27, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rotation tracks from April 27, 2011:



I've never seen conditions come together so favorably for strong tornadoes in my life. My friend said he didn't even forecast and would leave it to the experts because he knew it would be a bad, bad day with extreme loss of life.

By the way, here's an image he made for today:



Kind of ironic(?) that April 27 2011 had a large outbreak and today could be pretty bad as well.

Must be a cursed day...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELOIT...SCOTTSVILLE...JEWELL AND RANDALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 9831 3962 9825 3975 9813 3971 9793
3953 9792 3943 9794 3934 9808
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 205DEG 36KT 3946 9814
HAIL <.75IN

$$

GUERRERO
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
More like 1830..Maybe more..
Quoting LargoFl:
I think your right there..if i remember right over 800 died, gee
Formed August 23, 2005
Dissipated August 30, 2005
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
175 mph (280 km/h)
Lowest pressure 902 mbar (hPa); 26.64 inHg
Fatalities 1,833 confirmed[1]
Damage $108 billion (2005 USD)
(Costliest hurricane in US history[2])
Areas affected Bahamas, South Florida, Cuba, Louisiana (especially Greater New Orleans), Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle, most of eastern North America
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Rotation tracks from April 27, 2011:



I've never seen conditions come together so favorably for strong tornadoes in my life. My friend said he didn't even forecast and would leave it to the experts because he knew it would be a bad, bad day with extreme loss of life.

By the way, here's an image he made for today:



Kind of ironic(?) that April 27 2011 had a large outbreak and today could be pretty bad as well.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
well this is it for me,dinnertime...be safe out there folks..weather is getting kinda mean tonight...........SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

GAZ017-018-272045-
HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-
411 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HABERSHAM AND WESTERN
STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURNERVILLE...TOCCOA...HOLLYWOOD...DEMOREST...CLAR KESVILLE AND
BOYDVILLE.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3475 8361 3473 8350 3472 8348 3473 8347
3471 8335 3469 8334 3468 8334 3467 8331
3462 8327 3449 8334 3458 8363

$$

MCAVOY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Even " awful " does not come close...To me it was simply beyond satisfactory verbal description. I have been through three hurricanes and numerous tropical storms myself. I never went through Katrina, but it is that hurricane I find the most difficult to discuss....Even now.

Katrina was a disaster of truly epic proportions. Lets do a quick checklist of the impacts from Katrina.

Massive number of human deaths - 1836 dead, 135 missing.
Massive amount of property damage - $108 billion in damage
The depravity of desperate people shown to the world - check
Lives irreparably changed because of the storm - countless

Yeah, that is a pretty impacting storm. Hydrus is correct that words cannot describe the devastation that Hurricane Katrina left behind. This is why so many of here on WU react so strongly whenever anyone says a storm is "like" Katrina.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5875
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
411 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

GAZ002-011-019-272045-
411 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALKER...CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MENLO TO TIDINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WALKER...CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SUMMERVILLE...MENLO...
TRION...CLOUDLAND...CENTER POST...SUBLIGNA...LYERLY...BERRYTON...
EVERETT SPRINGS...LAKE MARVIN...JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK AND
TIDINGS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3463 8554 3465 8551 3464 8528 3459 8506
3459 8507 3455 8506 3454 8509 3447 8509
3446 8511 3443 8509 3438 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 274DEG 18KT 3448 8553 3447 8527

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kwgirl:
Yes, people on the west coast of Florida need to especially worry about October storms. Like Wilma, they look to be pushed across the peninsula by strong moving fronts that are typical of fall weather. I always thought the strong storms of September were a problem, but I fear the October storms.
That was another exceptionally large hurricane. The 1944 Havana-Florida hurricane was large and intense also, with 163 mph gusts measured at Havana and Sarasota..Link The Great Atlantic Hurricane was even larger and caused more damage...Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To say the young men who serve our country don't think they're going to die is insulting. After your first tour in Iraq or Afghanistan, your very very familiar with death. Patriotism is the reason so many young brave men joined after 9/ll. Maybe the young men in WWII didn't know they were headed to Hell, but that day has since passed. To insinuate they join to have fun, get out of jail free card, or to look cool is sad, seeing how many have paid the ultimate sacrifice in the last ten years. Most are from families that have served bravely and have heard from first hand accounts of just how real death is in war. War is hell. "I don't want to die for you, but if dying's asked of me, I'll bear that cross with honor, cause freedom don't come cheap!" You make it sound like a bunch of boys going to camp to have fun. When a society becomes detached from the wars it's involved in, this is the attitude you get. God bless our brave men and women.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
208 WxGeek: Wow, the weather is boring if this is our conversation...

California nuclear powerless to stop the Attack of the Giant Mutant Jellyfish
Okay, the salps are closer to tiny jellyfish, and definitely aren't mutants, still...
...my headline is more fun.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting fortpiercecane1:


Guess we need to let them in on cloud seeding.
LOL..can you imagine? lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Even " awful " does not come close...To me it was simply beyond satisfactory verbal description. I have been through three hurricanes and numerous tropical storms myself. I never went through Katrina, but it is that hurricane I find the most difficult to discuss....Even now.
I think your right there..if i remember right over 800 died, gee
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
some facts on Hurricane Katrina you may not know about.....gee the aftermath must have been simply awful...........Link
Even " awful " does not come close...To me it was simply beyond satisfactory verbal description. I have been through three hurricanes and numerous tropical storms myself. I never went through Katrina, but it is that hurricane I find the most difficult to discuss....Even now.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20569

Quoting StormTracker2K:
For any doubters out there the CPC agrees with the GFS. CPC is calling for very heavy rains for West Central & SW FL next week.



Days 6-10
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AT THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN STATES
Although on their threat graphic they indicate a threat for heavy rain, that isn't quite the same as them "calling for it."  CPC forecasts are more of a statistical type forecast indicating which type of weather (average, above average, or below average) is favored.  Looking at their corresponding probability plot, they are only indicating a 40-50% chance of above average precipitation in Florida, which also means that there is a 50-60% of average or below average precipitation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at the RUC, this afternoon has the potential to be very dangerous for peoples living in the Moderate risk area. I know the model exaggerates, but still, it shows a violate setup.

Could track a long-tracked, damaging tornado or two later on. The atmosphere for this current line of storms increases as they travel east, meaning they could produce large hail and damaging winds in addition to the tornadoes.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31590
Quoting LargoFl:
So, you think Hurricanes are bad here huh.................................The planet Jupiter has a hurricane which has been going on for over 300 years. It can be seen as a red spot on the planet. This hurricane on Jupiter is bigger than the Earth itself............................................ ...............can you imagine...a hurricane here, lasting 300 years? omg


Guess we need to let them in on cloud seeding.
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Rain chances havent gone up for Tampa bay area as of yet........
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234. wxmod
Modis image of Bejing area dust storm.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.