Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

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A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Quoting kmanislander:


The upgrading of the November 1932 hurricane to CAT 5 will not come as a surprise to those living in the Cayman Islands. That same hurricane destroyed the island of Cayman Brac and killed a large number of its inhabitants. Tidal waves over 40 feet high swept ashore drowning many. My mother was a child then and recalls trekking through ocean water inland to get to high ground with her parents. Many bodies were found in tree tops. One family that owned a two storey home had tiger sharks swimming around the downstairs !.

We have always believed that hurricane was a CAT 5 so seeing it upgraded now confirms that. It was the worst recorded hurricane in the history of these islands.
November will probably be a more active month as time wears on.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21880
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow, a storm that formed during the 1933 Atlantic hurricane season has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane as well.
They should upgrade Ivan to a cat 4 at landfall on the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
The one right over the city.
I'll check again
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Zoom in more... The storm is well NE of there by now anyway though
Well the one we are talking about and the one a bit south seem to really be rather strong.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Lyndon storm perhaps?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Admire does not show up on my map.

Zoom in more... The storm is well NE of there by now anyway though
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting weatherh98:


There's two near harveyville?!
The one right over the city.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Harveyville storm looks the best right now.


There's two near harveyville?!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's the one I was referring to
Admire does not show up on my map.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Harveyville storm looks the best right now.

That's the one I was referring to
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Maybe the Admire storm?
Harveyville storm looks the best right now.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Alma storm....THIS IS THE ONE!

Maybe the Admire storm?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting Grothar:


Close. But here is one you might like



You can find a better image than that.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
That's some interesting history on the Caymans. I didn't realize that we had some members who had family there since the 1930's(and maybe earlier).
.
Those of you in the Caymans know, but most may not know that the Caymans were sparsely populated in this time. As late as the 1950's, their main export was seamen. A beautiful place nonetheless, then and now.


Love that Avatar, "Badges? We don't Need no Stinking Badges."
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Shuttle Enterprise over New York City this morning atop the NASA 747 SCA.

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367. Skyepony (Mod)
Prof. Takeda says, “3/31/2015 is the last day of Japan”. It's based on steady increase in radiation readings taken 3 times a day since the nuclear accident 500km from Fukushima. Noticed USA is moving most of the troops from Okinawa to Guam.
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366. Skyepony (Mod)
At least five homes were destroyed early Friday after as many as three rare nighttime tornadoes reportedly ripped through sparsely populated counties on the southeastern Colorado plains. The state emergency management division said tornadoes were reported in Prowers, Kiowa and Bent counties. Lamar authorities in Prowers County said they spotted a fast and large tornado south of the city that ripped through four homes and left at least two people injured. A fifth home in Chivington was totaled after the five people sleeping inside escaped, said owner Therisa Brown, who added that there was no warning before her home was demolished. "We woke up to the roof getting ripped off," Brown said. "We went to the living room and we lifted a wall off of a friend who was staying with us. That's when the tornado circled back and it hit the house again. We barely made it into the bathroom." She said only a few exterior walls remained of her home. Chris Sorensen, a spokesman for the Colorado Division of Emergency Management, said the areas hit were mostly isolated farmland. A tractor-trailer was blown over on Colorado Highway 96 near Chivington, in Kiowa County. Nearby in Eads, Mandy Adamson, who works at the Co-Op Service Station, said the damage was isolated. "All I know is that it traveled into Lamar from someplace else, it got a ranch near there and it went up (north) to Chivington and that's where it took out another house," Adamson said. Overnight tornadoes are rare in Colorado, where the temperature usually drops at night, said forecaster Patrick Cioffi. The severe weather hit after near record highs in the 80s. Tornado season usually doesn't begin until May in Colorado. The National Weather Service said a survey team was heading to the area to confirm any touchdowns. The same band of storms also dropped snow in Breckenridge and the Eisenhower Tunnel, said forecaster Todd Dankers in Boulder. High winds swept the Western Slope, but no injuries were reported, he said. Kiowa County emergency manager Jeffrey Wright said authorities were going home to home to locate residents. Power was out in several areas, and state transportation officials said motorists were having trouble finding gas.
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Does anyone use Mint.com? I haven't been able to access the homepage for the past 24 hours...
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Alma storm....THIS IS THE ONE!
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
363. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tygor:


Yep, south central Texas is starting to bake. That's fine, we didn't want vegetation this year again anyway :)


Y'all better start growing some hay or reducing the livestock further. Much of FL is coming up short this winter. The word is it got shipped off to TX since they were paying more.
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Quoting Grothar:


Close. But here is one you might like



That just screams Cat 5 at you... I don't see how it's never been upgraded. Pick almost any other Cat 5 storm and Igor will be just as impressive or even more impressive.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Either the Emporia storm or I give up.

I give up...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting Grothar:


Close. But here is one you might like



Very impressive...what's up Grothar?
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Well, last year today was a BAD day...
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Either the Emporia storm or I give up.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Closest I can get to Igor's official peak intensity.



Close. But here is one you might like


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26958
Quoting weatherh98:


I had red beans I remember that!

I was glued to TWC, I remember that!
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
At this moment one year ago, I was eating a taco. I was also watching The Weather Channel coverage of the Tuscaloosa tornado, which would be in progress at this time.

Meanwhile, the warm front is not doing what it's supposed to. Could mean less of a tornado threat.


I had red beans I remember that!
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That storm is getting stronger...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 540 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 632 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON NC - KILM 632 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 630 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 529 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012
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Quoting reedzone:


Was too cloudy earlier for anything that big to happen.
That really did not have to much to do with it.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah I just noticed those also... Not strong enough to be tornado warned yet but they're getting there
Yah new frame. Defiantly getting stronger and more surfaced based if it is not already.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Both of these storms are getting stronger as we speak.

Yeah I just noticed those also... Not strong enough to be tornado warned yet but they're getting there
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Both of these storms are getting stronger as we speak.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Possible near-surface circulation, pretty weak, almost over Junction City, KS, at this time.

Cell just NW of Council Grove, KS, now has one of the stronger cores of the day and an appendage hanging from the western end. No signs of near-surface circulation yet.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can say it with certainty...today is in the process of busting. It looked good just a little while ago but the warm front isn't moving north like its supposed to and the cap, which I have had my concern about all week, is holding pretty strong.


Was too cloudy earlier for anything that big to happen.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, as I said earlier, the SPC should've taken the Moderate risk down at their last update... Too much cap, too much dry air, not enough instability for major tornadoes

The instability isn't fully there because the warm front isn't as far north as predicted. Cap and dry air are the same thing.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can say it with certainty...today is in the process of busting. It looked good just a little while ago but the warm front isn't moving north like its supposed to and the cap, which I have had my concern about all week, is holding pretty strong.

Yeah, as I said earlier, the SPC should've taken the Moderate risk down at their last update... Too much cap, too much dry air, not enough instability for major tornadoes
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
516 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 512 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR AURORA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE
HOMES COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR
SNAPPED. VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLYDE...VINING AND CLIFTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 9762 3965 9748 3966 9729 3957 9718
3938 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 221DEG 32KT 3947 9751

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

PHILLIPS
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
Quoting thunderblogger:


Do you ever have anything positive to verbalize? Talk about Debbie Downer.....


Don't mess with Texas. How would you like a nice big fat drought?
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I can say it with certainty...today is in the process of busting. It looked good just a little while ago but the warm front isn't moving north like its supposed to and the cap, which I have had my concern about all week, is holding pretty strong.
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Quoting EugeneTillman:



When's your tropical weather season over in Texas? I understand the official Atlantic Basin season runs through all of November. But isn't it August or September when storms are climatologically not as likely to impact the Texas Gulf Coast?


Most of us in the drought areas are in central TX. In order of us to get something from a tropical system it usually needs to make landfall in Corpus or further south. In other words, we aren't very lucky when it comes to rain.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
On average, the amount of plastic debris in the ocean may be 2.5 times higher due to wind-driven water-column mixing than estimates derived from using surface-water sampling alone.
High winds can drive the debris as deep as 20to25metres(65to89feet), hiding up to 27times the amount of debris estimated through using surface-water sampling alone.
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I honestly would have never thought I would witness an outbreak as bad if not worse than the Super Outbreak of '74. It still makes me sick thinking about the amount of destruction and suffering going on in the south that terrible day on April 27.



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That's some interesting history on the Caymans. I didn't realize that we had some members who had family there since the 1930's(and maybe earlier).
.
Those of you in the Caymans know, but most may not know that the Caymans were sparsely populated in this time. As late as the 1950's, their main export was seamen. A beautiful place nonetheless, then and now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, it's because I nearly dropped it when I first saw the tornado.
Yah I was stunned as well when I saw the storm move through town.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I love the fact that you remember what you were eating.

Lol, it's because I nearly dropped it when I first saw the tornado.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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