Moderate Risk of tornadoes for Kansas; 1-year Super Outbreak anniversary

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on April 27, 2012

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A dangerous severe weather threat is developing for Kansas today, where a small but potent storm system in the western part of the state will intensify and move east. By late this afternoon, the storm will spawn supercell thunderstorms capable of bringing large hail and strong tornadoes to eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in its "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather, the second highest level of alert. Cities in the Moderate Risk area include Topeka, Kansas, and Kansas City, Missouri.


Figure 1. Severe weather outlook for April 27, 2012, from our severe weather page.

One-year anniversary of the April 27, 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak
One year ago today, an astonishing outbreak of atmospheric violence unparalleled in world history hit the Southeast U.S. A total of 199 tornadoes touched down, including eleven violent EF-4s and four maximum-strength EF-5s. The 4-day period April 25 - 28 was the largest and most damaging severe weather outbreak in world history, with a total of 358 tornadoes, $10.4 billion in damage, and 321 deaths.


Video 1. Remarkable video of the tornado that hit Tuscaloosa, Alabama on April 27, 2011. Fast forward to 4:15 to see the worst of the storm.


Video 2. CBS42 meteorologist Mark Prater tracks the Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011.


Video 3. Five-minute look at the Tuscaloosa tornado of April 27, 2011 and the damage it wrought.

Jeff Masters

As Is (teach50)
My husband and I were visiting my parents in Birmingham, Alabama. We decided to take a day trip to Tuscaloosa to see the damage from the April 27 tornado. It was a sight that I will never forget. Blocks and blocks of flattened houses and stores. This area has not been touched in 2 months. It was so moving that I started to cry thinking of all these poor people.
As Is

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Yeah I've got that feeling that while in total activity this hurricane season won't be very busy, we will have some major surprises headed our way--just wait. I call for some land mass to be hit hard, so don't underestimate this hurricane season just yet--just because they call for a relatively calm one in total storms.
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Quoting nigel20:

What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon?

If I'm not mistaken, 228 mph in Gilbert. That could have been disproven though.

If so, Isabel at 205 mph.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.

What's up Korithe...what is the highest flight level wind measurement by recon?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. We have May and then hurricane season to contend with.
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It's nice to see something closer to average for a change. I got into weather in 2002, and have yet to really find a year that wasn't rampant with extremes. Just for once I'd like to experience something akin to normalcy.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely not last year.



Severe weather will probably heat up quite a bit in May. Should be a more typical severe weather season.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
April 2012 really has been a let down in terms of tornado activity. I guess that is a good thing though, considering how active (understatement) last season was.



I wouldn't go that far, but it's definitely not last year.


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't concur. I did go back and edit my comment, yes, but I did not notice your comment until afterwards. :P

Moving on...... >_>
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Quoting Ameister12:

You may have beaten by to the picture but your edited your comment to have text similarr to mine when I already posted my comment. So I think YOU'RE the copier. :P

I don't concur. I did go back and edit my comment, yes, but I did not notice your comment until afterwards. :P
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What? There's a Severe Thunderstorm headed this way? It'll die out or miss me..

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks like Negative NAO is comming soon.

Yeah, it would allow steady warming of the MDR
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Copier... :P

You may have beaten by to the picture but your edited your comment to have text similarr to mine when I already posted my comment. So I think YOU'RE the copier. :P

Who even cares, back to weather.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Those sst's in the EPAC are bombing. It appears that basin will have plenty of Tropical activity and my numbers are 18/10/5.

Good number Twpr
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Quoting nigel20:


It looks like Negative NAO is comming soon.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I know today's already a total bust but we may have one last shot... A totally alone supercell over SW Kansas with some decent rotation... Maybe just maybe
The storm is actually starting to organize quite well.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Here's Tip vs Tracy. Tracy was the smallest TC of all time before Marco.

Copier... :P
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Imagine Super Typhoon Tip vs Marco O.o

Here's Tip vs Tracy. Tracy was the smallest TC of all time before Marco.
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Cyclone Tip (largest on record) versus Cyclone Tracy (smallest on record before Marco).

Amazing differences in size. :P

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Quoting nigel20:


Those sst's in the EPAC are bombing. It appears that basin will have plenty of Tropical activity and my numbers are 18/10/5.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Imagine Super Typhoon Tip vs Marco O.o
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Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Quoting Ameister12:


Marco is the perfect size for an Avatar, no need to resize, lol.
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460. wpb
wug- first round pick , tropical tidbits
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Quick question....what is the highest flight level winds measured by recon?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Quoting Ameister12:

O_0
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Ivan 2004 needs a second look at, I'm made to understand
he destroyed the windspeed guage at airport clocking 219mph!

What's up storm petrol...did anyone from the NHC check the Anemometer that took that measurement?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
Not again. It looks like another round of rain for Puerto Rico next week. I say not again because so far in 2012,it has been above normal the rainfall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
926 PM AST FRI APR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION
THROUGH SUN THEN FLATTEN ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LIFTS OVER RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVERNIGHT
AS HEIGHTS RISE UNDER STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
OVERALL...VERY NICE WEATHER TOMORROW WITH JUST ISOLD SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED SUN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS BUT MOISTURE REMAINS
MINIMAL. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVR THE NEXT 72 HRS WITH UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENING MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BROAD TROUGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WESTERN ATLC WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST...TNCM AND TKPK IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH ABOUT 28/16Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT AND
SAT AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN INTO MINIMAL SCA SAT NIGHT AND EARLY
SUN. SCEC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN BOTH OFFSHORE ATLC AND CARIB WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 81 / 0 10 20 30
STT 77 79 77 79 / 10 10 40 40

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Quoting Grothar:
Hey,

Don't forget about TS Marco in 2008


Aww... Marco was very cute. =D
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Ivan 2004 needs a second look at, I'm made to understand
he destroyed the windspeed guage at airport clocking 219mph!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Guess i'll throw in a few...




Guess I'll throw in the one and only ultimate loop of Igor.

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Hey,

Don't forget about TS Marco in 2008

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Quoting hurricane23:


Guess i'll throw in a few...




Nice. What's up h23?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8314
I was in TN for the tornados last April. I watched tv one night in one motel and saw the motel I'd stayed at the night before in Ringgold a pile of rubble. The next morning the sirens went off at 6:30 outside the hotel I was in. It was not a fun time to be there. I've had two extremely close calls with tornados, one landed in my backyard the other I drove into, it was a scene from the movie Twister and all I could think was I had to get home to my kids, to make sure they were all right. My daughter was terrified of every thunderstorm for seven years until Rita hit us. Tornados are not fun.
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Quoting Phatkhat:


A letdown? More like a relief for a lot of folks!

From a storm chasers point of view it has been a let down. Relief for many others.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
April 2012 really has been a let down in terms of tornado activity. I guess that is a good thing though, considering how active (understatement) last season was.



A letdown? More like a relief for a lot of folks!
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April 2012 really has been a let down in terms of tornado activity. I guess that is a good thing though, considering how active (understatement) last season was.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I have a whole Photobucket album on Igor...

I'd say 155mph tops.








Guess i'll throw in a few...



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Quoting KoritheMan:
That was some outbreak:



SARCASM FLAG: ON


Occluding lows with narrow warm sectors usually verify or bust really hard.

The SREF was never excited about this one. Gotta give it props.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


El ojo paso justo al sur de mi casa en Rio Piedras.
Yo soy de aguadilla.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Yo no senti nada lol


El ojo paso justo al sur de mi casa en Rio Piedras.
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I know today's already a total bust but we may have one last shot... A totally alone supercell over SW Kansas with some decent rotation... Maybe just maybe
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7928
That was some outbreak:



SARCASM FLAG: ON
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A tropical wave is an elongated area of low pressure that typically originated from Africa and moves east to west across the tropics.


???
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Ese es Irene. The rain it brought caused massive floodings.

Yo no senti nada lol
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I have a whole Photobucket album on Igor...

I'd say 155mph tops.






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Quoting Gearsts:
Para los people de aca :O


Ese es Irene. The rain it brought caused massive floodings.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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