Extreme 111° heat hits Texas; floods kill 9 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:25 PM GMT on April 26, 2012

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Another round of unprecedented April heat hit the U.S. yesterday, and this time it was Texas' turn to see large sections of the state with the hottest April temperatures in over a century of record keeping. Seven major airports in Texas set all-time April high temperatures yesterday:

Amarillo, TX: 99° (old April record 98° on 4/22/1989 and 4/22/1965)
Lubbock, TX: 101° (old April record 100° on 4/16/1925 and /22/1989)
Dalhart, TX: 96° (old April record 94° on 4/22/1989)
Borger, TX: 99° (tied April record set on 4/22/1965)
Midland, TX: 104° (old April record 101° on 4/21/1989)
Abilene, TX: 104° (old April record 102° on 4/16/1925)
Childress, TX: 106° (old April record 102° on three occasions, most recently on 4/3/2011)

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, both Texas and Oklahoma came within 2°F of their all-time April state high temperature record yesterday. Altus, Oklahoma hit 104°, falling 2° short of the April state record of 106° set at the Magnum Research Station in 1972. In the Texas Mesonet, it hit 111° at Knox City 3NW, which is just 2° short of the Texas April state record of 113° set at Catarina in 1984. According to Mr. Burt, What is amazing is that Knox City is in the north-central part of the state, not down in the Rio Grande region like Catarina. The 111° would probably be pretty close to whatever the all-time hottest temp for ANY month might be in that location (probably around 115°). On Sunday this week, Nevada just missed setting their April state high temperature record, when the mercury hit 105° in Laughlin (April state record: 106° in 1989.)


Figure 1. At least 36 of the roughly 400 major U.S. cities that maintain automated weather sensors at their local airports (8%) have set or tied all-time April high temperature records so far this month. The records set yesterday in Texas are not yet in the database, and are not included on this map. Image taken from our new Record Extremes page.

Earlier this week, all-time record April heat hit large portions of Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. At least 36 of the roughly 400 major U.S. cities that maintain automated weather sensors at their local airports (8%) have set or tied all-time April high temperature records so far this month; no all-time April cold records have been set. The U.S. has been on an extraordinary pace of setting high temperature records so far in 2012. During March 2012, an astonishing 32% of all the major airports in the U.S. set all-time March high temperature records. For the year-to-date, there have been 184 new all-time monthly high temperature records set at the major airports, and 6 all-time monthly low temperature records. Not surprisingly, the period January - March this year has been the warmest such period in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895.



Figure 2. Total precipitable water (in mm) for this morning shows a surge of moisture moving westwards though the Caribbean. Precipitable water values in excess of 51 mm (2 inches, orange colors) are capable of generating heavy flooding rains. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Heavy rains kill nine in Haiti
The rainy season has begun on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, where heavy rains that began on Monday have triggered mudslides and floods that killed nine people. Nearly 500,000 people are still homeless in Haiti from the January 2010 earthquake, making the country highly vulnerable to flooding disasters. Heavy flooding was also a problem this week in the neighboring Dominican Republic, where 11,000 people were evacuated; no deaths were reported there, however. Precipitation forecasts from the GFS model suggest that the worst is over for Hispaniola, with the axis of greatest moisture expected to move west of the island today. This surge of moisture will bring heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, Cayman Islands, and South Florida during the remainder of the week.

Jeff Masters

I'll have another cup please (BigJohnsSalsa)
Gonna be a good day
I'll have another cup please

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jedkins01:



Currently there isn't much sign it will spread north into Central Florida, but its at least a good sign things are headed in the right direction. The problem is you can never be sure when the wet season will get going this time of year because we can head into one of these patterns where the heat and moisture starts building but sometimes an upper ridge can take control and suppress rain for 2 or 3 weeks instead of the rain pattern taking shape. I've seen some years where the rain does get going early and other years where it seems like it will but it just ends up being parched dry and hot beneath ap powerful upper ridge until June.

The average rainfall for May is give or take, 3 to 4 inches depending on which part of Florida you live. My experience living here over the years is that the wet season either starts sometime in May or it ends up being extremely dry. The 2 possible events tend to average out to 3 or 4 inches. However in reality in May you should probably expect barely any rain, well below average, or above average rain. I've seen some year we get 6 TO 10 inches for month of May and some years we struggle to even get 1 inch its so dry.


Yeah it doesn't look promising at the moment that this moisture will make it up to C FL but I agree it's promising that the models are picking up on daily showers for S FL starting the weekend. So one would guess it's just a matter of time before C FL gets involved. A famous forecaster said this below about S FL and rainfall for May.

S. Fla. Forecaster Suggests Link Between Hurricane Behavior, May Rainfall

Link
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I wanna see the running loop of this

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's see when GFS is upgraded on May 22nd it performs better and take the #1 spot as the best model from ECMWF.

Link


Nope, better hope on next years upgrade. Of course, the ECMWF will not sit still, so it seems the GFS will be in perpetual catchup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I remember the Comet...
A lovely and pretty revolutionary commercial aircraft.
The 4 jet Engines were set into the wings.
Nice British engineering.
Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.


Lovely, but it crashed a lot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

I think that it is beyond any doubt that that is an alien spacecraft.

I, for one, welcome our new (presumably tentacled) overlords and wish to remind them how useful someone with my background can be to them.

FOOD!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PlazaRed:
Just a note on the life thing.
A long time ago I saw a programme about a species of flies in Africa that can survive total dehydration, they simply stop living until water come back, then they come back to life.
Scientists got some of them and totally dehydrated them behold any natural level, kept them for a long time and when they put water on them they still survived.
We humans get stuck thinking about life from our point of view but its a lot tougher than us and can survive behold the limits of our imaginations.
Technically with that fly, when would you declare it dead?
When I squashed it and saw it's guts run out :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Sigh, the US is performing the worst out of those... Poor NCEP.


Let's see when GFS is upgraded on May 22nd, it performs better and takes the #1 spot as the best model from ECMWF.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13923
The Drake Equation



Description

The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:

N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
Speaking of rain chances for South Florida this weekend, they are bringing back the Air & Naval Show on Ft. Lauderdale Beach this weekend and my best Bud in Ft. Lauderdale just e-mailed me to let me know he is taking the day off tomorrow to lay on the beach and watch the "rehearsals". Might be a good idea because heavy rains could affect some of the fly-bys and other activities (the Blue Angels I think) on Sat and Sunday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Rainy Season is about 48 hours from starting in S FL. I wish we could get this going around C FL as it is dry again after last weekends rains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012


.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RECENT GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SATURDAY
WITH AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AT THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS ALTHOUGH
THE EMPHASIS SHOULD STILL MAINLY BE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

BY SUNDAY THE GUIDANCE (TO VARYING DEGREES) CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WITH THE GFS SEEMINGLY AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FEATURE APPARENTLY THE
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH EMPHASIS CONTINUING ON THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME THAT IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST WITH ENHANCED UPWARD
MOTION FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS IT COULD RESULT IN MUCH
GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A REAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS DEVELOPING SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AS IT IS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS
. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH
MOISTURE DECREASING A BIT AND WITH THAT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.



Currently there isn't much sign it will spread north into Central Florida, but its at least a good sign things are headed in the right direction. The problem is you can never be sure when the wet season will get going this time of year because we can head into one of these patterns where the heat and moisture starts building but sometimes an upper ridge can take control and suppress rain for 2 or 3 weeks instead of the rain pattern taking shape. I've seen some years where the rain does get going early and other years where it seems like it will but it just ends up being parched dry and hot beneath a powerful upper ridge until June.

The average rainfall for May is give or take, 3 to 4 inches depending on which part of Florida you live. My experience living here over the years is that the wet season either starts sometime in May or it ends up being extremely dry. The 2 possible events tend to average out to 3 or 4 inches. However in reality in May you should probably expect barely any rain, well below average, or above average rain. I've seen some year we get 6 to 10 inches for month of May and some years we struggle to even get 1 inch its so dry.


It is common though, for the rain season to start 3 or so weeks in South Florida before it does here. Climatologically speaking, the wet season in South Florida is May through October. Whereas in Central Florida its generally the last week of May through the first week of October
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Excerpt from Miami NHC Discussion

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME THAT IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST WITH ENHANCED UPWARD
MOTION FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS IT COULD RESULT IN MUCH
GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A REAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS DEVELOPING SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AS IT IS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
Quoting RitaEvac:
UFO spaceship orbiting the sun, or a camera glitch?

I think that it is beyond any doubt that that is an alien spacecraft.

I, for one, welcome our new (presumably tentacled) overlords and wish to remind them how useful someone with my background can be to them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a note on the life thing.
A long time ago I saw a programme about a species of flies in Africa that can survive total dehydration, they simply stop living until water come back, then they come back to life.
Scientists got some of them and totally dehydrated them behold any natural level, kept them for a long time and when they put water on them they still survived.
We humans get stuck thinking about life from our point of view but its a lot tougher than us and can survive behold the limits of our imaginations.
Technically with that fly, when would you declare it dead?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SANDGAP...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCKEE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MACEDONIA...BRADSHAW...MCKEE AND ATKINSTOWN AROUND 415 PM EDT.
PRIVETT...TURKEY FOOT...NEW ZION AND GRAY HAWK AROUND 420 PM EDT.
MUMMIE...HERD...ZEKES POINT AND WILD DOG AROUND 425 PM EDT.
GREEN HALL...ELIAN AND NATHANTON AROUND 430 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE NEW ZION...
ALGER AND ARNETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 8428 3757 8411 3757 8402 3754 8390
3749 8383 3750 8374 3745 8355 3718 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 289DEG 29KT 3746 8402

$$

DUSTY
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7565
It's looking like below average temperatures for most areas for the next 4-5 days but the CPC is pretty confident on a warm-up beyond then

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7565
Quoting jeffs713:

It isn't exactly busy right now. I mean, we have a completely sheared blob in the southern Caribbean, a dearth of severe weather, and just an ongoing drought weather-wise. Boredom does weird things to blogs.


True......Plenty of other topics will pop up between now and the first real invest or next real weather maker.........I just hope we don't get too much 2012 lunacy, on the Blog anyway, if things start clicking too much Mother Nature wise over the next several months........ :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
I noticed the SPC took our area of the slight risk but it looks like they may have jumped the gun

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC155-SCC033-069-262045-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0025.120426T1958Z-120426T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BENNETTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MINTURN...
LITTLE ROCK...
ROWLAND...
PURVIS...
KEMPER...
FAIRMONT...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BENNETTSVILLE
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3469 7953 3464 7947 3468 7942 3460 7883
3454 7886 3450 7885 3446 7890 3444 7896
3440 7897 3438 7901 3431 7904 3427 7911
3455 7982 3460 7981 3462 7978 3465 7982
3467 7986 3474 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 283DEG 45KT 3457 7958

$$

WEISS


Warnings don't verify risk areas, reports do.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31316
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Models don't agree on the MJO in the next 2 weeks




ECMWF the last 90 days has been the most accurate day 8 onwards




Sigh, the US is performing the worst out of those... Poor NCEP.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3468
I noticed the SPC took our area of the slight risk but it looks like they may have jumped the gun

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC155-SCC033-069-262045-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0025.120426T1958Z-120426T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BENNETTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MINTURN...
LITTLE ROCK...
ROWLAND...
PURVIS...
KEMPER...
FAIRMONT...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BENNETTSVILLE
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3469 7953 3464 7947 3468 7942 3460 7883
3454 7886 3450 7885 3446 7890 3444 7896
3440 7897 3438 7901 3431 7904 3427 7911
3455 7982 3460 7981 3462 7978 3465 7982
3467 7986 3474 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 283DEG 45KT 3457 7958

$$

WEISS

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14242
Rainy Season is about 48 hours from starting in S FL. I wish we could get this going around C FL as it is dry again after last weekends rains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012


.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RECENT GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SATURDAY
WITH AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AT THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS ALTHOUGH
THE EMPHASIS SHOULD STILL MAINLY BE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

BY SUNDAY THE GUIDANCE (TO VARYING DEGREES) CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WITH THE GFS SEEMINGLY AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FEATURE APPARENTLY THE
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH EMPHASIS CONTINUING ON THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME THAT IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST WITH ENHANCED UPWARD
MOTION FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS IT COULD RESULT IN MUCH
GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A REAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS DEVELOPING SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AS IT IS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS
. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH
MOISTURE DECREASING A BIT AND WITH THAT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It started from post 94
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


From what I've been reading I assume on a comet. It was so long ago, I really don't remember.

I remember the Comet...
A lovely and pretty revolutionary commercial aircraft.
The 4 jet Engines were set into the wings.
Nice British engineering.
Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Models don't agree on the MJO in the next 2 weeks




ECMWF the last 90 days has been the most accurate day 8 onwards


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......

It isn't exactly busy right now. I mean, we have a completely sheared blob in the southern Caribbean, a dearth of severe weather, and just an ongoing drought weather-wise. Boredom does weird things to blogs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
145 hydrus: [inre ballistic panspermia] that meteor had to come from somewhere where there was or is life. If that was proven to be the case, I would guess our galaxy and the universe is not only brimming with life, but that certain microbes and other lifeforms can survive not only the longtime trip through space, but survive re-entry and possibly the impact with the Earth...We have tough life forms right here on the planet that might survive such a trip... :)

Then one would have to ask, what magical property does the "asteroid/comet/planet of life's origin" have that Earth doesn't have? ie Unless one can scientificly explain what that property is, what it does, and how it does it, one might as well call it magic.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Where did the life on the comet come from?



lol, its funny how rational thought dissolves when the subject of the origin of life is brought up, it fascinates me...
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Quoting pottery:

Yes, but where did you come from?


From what I've been reading I assume on a comet. It was so long ago, I really don't remember.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25051
Quoting Cotillion:
"Suspected tornadoes have struck two areas of England damaging buildings and uprooting trees.

Residents in Rugby in Warwickshire said a tornado had "ripped a path" through properties toppling a chimney stack and knocking down fences.

Meanwhile, more than 100 miles away, farm buildings were blown down killing 20 chickens near Halstead in Essex."

Link




Now that, is rather weird...
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The clouds and rainy weather have migrated to the west, and left us under hot and sunny skies.
Temp 90F EDITED
Humidity 53%
Heat index 95F
Wind 12-14 mph east (which is nice)
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Looks like a watch box for our area..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20322
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......



maybe because wisdom lacks quite significantly
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The poles of the sun do reverse every 11 years, but the Earth's reversals occur sporadically and on average about 4-5 times every million years.

The sun reversing poles doesn't have too much affect on us (aside from massive solar flares), but if the Earth were to reverse poles in your lifetime, it would not be too fun.


The Ask an Astrobiologist at NASA says:

There is no reason to expect a reversal of magnetic polarity any time soon, or to anticipate any bad effects on life when it does eventually happen

Question 10
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Quoting Grothar:


I'm always here.

Yes, but where did you come from?
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20322
Quoting pottery:

I notice that Grothar has been around a lot last two days.
I wonder if there is a Connection.... or a Presence, even.


I'm always here.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25051
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......

I notice that Grothar has been around a lot last two days.
I wonder if there is a Connection.... or a Presence, even.
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Quoting LargoFl:
at some point, millions of years ago, earth was..lifeless..then poof..it wasnt, religion aside..something huge happened...dont ever misunderstand me ok, i dont trust religion on this one point only..no human was alive when this event occurred, and religion itself, is written by man..im sorry i wrote this because i think religion itself, should not be in this blog, weather etc is the topic and i am sorry i brought this up..my apologies to everyone.
No apologies needed.  As for what happened in the past I think its great that we don't really know what happened per say.  It is that mystery of how and why that helps motivates us as a species to better ourselves.  The whole mystery of it I think gives us humans a concrete platform to spring off of to "think outside the box".  Which leads us to all sorts of great discoveries. :)  
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this blog is reminding me of Mystery Science Theater
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14242
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Ballistic panspermia is a pretty wild idea, but it passes the small test, at least so far. It's humbling and awesome and almost poetically beautiful to consider the possibility that life on this planet arrived here by meteorite. Imagine: the presence of every living thing on Earth--the dinosaurs, sea-dwelling phytoplankton, you, your dog--could be nothing more than the result of random interstellar/interplanetary cross-contamination.
And that meteor had to come from somewhere where there was or is life. If that was proven to be the case, I would guess our galaxy and the universe is not only brimming with life, but that certain microbes and other lifeforms can survive not only the longtime trip through space, but survive re-entry and possibly the impact with the Earth...We have tough life forms right here on the planet that might survive such a trip...:)...This is lengthy, but cool..



Strange Bacteria Thriving Two Miles Underground

Strange Bacteria Thriving Two Miles Underground
A Princeton-led research group has discovered an isolated community of bacteria nearly two miles underground that derives all of its energy from the decay of radioactive rocks rather than from sunlight. As per members of the team, the finding suggests life might exist in similarly extreme conditions even on other worlds.
The self-sustaining bacterial community, which thrives in nutrient-rich groundwater found near a South African gold mine, has been isolated from the Earth's surface for several million years. It represents the first group of microbes known to depend exclusively on geologically produced hydrogen and sulfur compounds for nourishment. The extreme conditions under which the bacteria live bear a resemblance to those of early Earth, potentially offering insights into the nature of organisms that lived long before our planet had an oxygen atmosphere.
The scientists, who hail from nine collaborating institutions, had to burrow 2.8 kilometers beneath our world's surface to find these unusual microbes, leading the researchers to their speculations that life could exist in similar circumstances elsewhere in the solar system.
"What really gets my juices flowing is the possibility of life below the surface of Mars," said Tullis Onstott, a Princeton University professor of geosciences and leader of the research team. "These bacteria have been cut off from the surface of the Earth for a number of millions of years, but have thrived in conditions most organisms would consider to be inhospitable to life. Could these bacterial communities sustain themselves no matter what happened on the surface? If so, it raises the possibility that organisms could survive even on planets whose surfaces have long since become lifeless."
Onstott's team published its results in the Oct. 20 issue of the journal Science. The research group includes first author Li-Hung Lin, who performed a number of of the analyses as a doctoral student at Princeton and then as a postdoctoral researcher at the Carnegie Institution.
"These bacteria are truly unique, in the purest sense of the word," said Lin, now at National Taiwan University. "We know how isolated the bacteria have been because analyses of the water that they live in showed that it's very old and hasn't been diluted by surface water. In addition, we observed that the hydrocarbons in the environment did not come from living organisms, as is usual, and that the source of the hydrogen needed for their respiration comes from the decomposition of water by radioactive decay of uranium, thorium and potassium".
Because the groundwater the team sampled to find the bacteria comes from several different sources, it remains difficult to determine specifically how long the bacteria have been isolated. The team estimates the time frame to be somewhere between three and 25 million years, implying that living things are even more adaptable than once thought.
"We know surprisingly little about the origin, evolution and limits for life on Earth," said biogeochemist Lisa Pratt, who led Indiana University Bloomington's contribution to the project. "Researchers are just beginning to study the diverse organisms living in the deepest parts of the ocean, and the rocky crust on Earth is virtually unexplored at depths more than half a kilometer below the surface. The organisms we describe in this paper live in a completely different world than the one we know at the surface".
That subterranean world, Onstott said, is a lightless pool of hot, pressurized salt water that stinks of sulfur and noxious gases humans would find unbreathable. But the newly discovered bacteria, which are distantly correlation to the Firmicutes division of microbes that exist near undersea hydrothermal vents, flourish there.
"The radiation allows for the production of lots of sulfur compounds that these bacteria can use as a high-energy source of food," Onstott said. "For them, it's like eating potato chips."
But the arrival of the research team brought one substance into the underground world that, though vital to human survival, proved fatal to the microbes -- air from the surface.
"These critters seems to have a real problem with being exposed to oxygen," Onstott said. "We can't seem to keep them alive after we sample them. But because this environment is so much like the early Earth, it gives us a handle on what kind of creatures might have existed before we had an oxygen atmosphere".

Onstott said that a number of hundreds of millions of years ago, some of the first bacteria on the planet may have thrived in similar conditions, and that the newly discovered microbes could shed light on research into the origins of life on Earth.
"These bacteria are probably close to the base of the tree for the bacterial domain of life," he said. "They might be genealogically quite ancient. To find out, we will need to compare them to other organisms such as Firmicutes and other such heat-loving creatures from deep sea vents or hot springs."
The research team is building a small laboratory 3.8 kilometers beneath the surface in the Witwatersrand region of South Africa to conduct further study of the newly discovered ecosystem, said Onstott, who hopes the findings will be of use when future space probes are sent to seek life on other planets.

"A big question for me is, how do these creatures sustain themselves?" Onstott said. "Has this one strain of bacteria evolved to possess all the characteristics it needs to survive on its own, or are they working with other species of bacteria? I'm sure they will have more surprises for us, and they may show us one day how and where to look for microbes elsewhere".

Other authors of this work include Johanna Lipmann-Pipke of GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Gera number of; Erik Boice of Indiana University; Barbara Sherwood Lollar of the University of Toronto; Eoin L. Brodie, Terry C. Hazen, Gary L. Andersen and Todd Z. DeSantis of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, Calif.; Duane P. Moser of the Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas; and Dave Kershaw of the Mponeng Mine, Anglo Gold, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Pratt and Onstott have collaborated for years as part of the Indiana-Princeton-Tennessee Astrobiology Institute (IPTAI), a NASA-funded research center focused on designing instruments and probes for life detection in rocks and deep groundwater on Earth during planning for subsurface exploration of Mars. IPTAI's recommendations to NASA will draw on findings discussed in the Science report.

Posted by: Janet Source
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20322
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Watched Secrets of the Sun last night, the sun's magnetic field switches about every 11 years. Why would this one be special from all the previous ones?
The poles of the sun do reverse every 11 years, but the Earth's reversals occur sporadically and on average about 4-5 times every million years.

The sun reversing poles doesn't have too much affect on us (aside from massive solar flares), but if the Earth were to reverse poles in your lifetime, it would not be too fun.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3618
Quoting aspectre:
Frankly I've never understood why some folks would prefer to think an asteroid could produce life more easily than the Earth. All of the various "explanations" for the hypothesis smell more of bad*fundamentalist religion -- "Life came from Above" -- than science via Occam'sRazor.

* I do distinguish between good and bad fundamentalism: the bad doesn't make any sense (maybe, especially doesn't make sense) even if one accepts all of their tenets.
at some point, millions of years ago, earth was..lifeless..then poof..it wasnt, religion aside..something huge happened...dont ever misunderstand me ok, i dont trust religion on this one point only..no human was alive when this event occurred, and religion itself, is written by man..im sorry i wrote this because i think religion itself, should not be in this blog, weather etc is the topic and i am sorry i brought this up..my apologies to everyone.
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142. N3EG
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing when you think about it...where exactly..did the very FIRST..spark of life..come from? religion aside....maybe from an asteroid?


My theory: Alien visitors had lunch on a barren earth, and didn't clean up their mess. All life on earth originated from a moldy alien tuna fish sandwich.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
"Goddam westerlies." -Blob


LOL. It's still early. This will be good practice for us to look up our old maps.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25051
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Just got tested for appendicitis, Having some major stomach issues this week, So what we got there?


From your description, I would assume some serious pain?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25051
Quoting jeffs713:
a copious amount of rain... may fall in the area of the Bahamas over the next week.


Sorry, you were second


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25051
Quoting Grothar:
"Goddam westerlies." -Blob
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3618
CIRA Total Precipitable Water
Apr. 26, 2012 - 16:24 UTC
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20322
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ballistic panspermia is a pretty wild idea, but it passes the small test, at least so far. It's humbling and awesome and almost poetically beautiful to consider the possibility that life on this planet arrived here by meteorite. Imagine: the presence of every living thing on Earth--the dinosaurs, sea-dwelling phytoplankton, you, your dog--could be nothing more than the result of random interstellar/interplanetary cross-contamination.
lol...amazing thought there
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Frankly I've never understood why some folks would prefer to think that an asteroid or comet could produce life more easily than the Earth. All of the various "explanations" for the hypothesis smell more of bad*fundamentalist religion -- "Life came from Above" -- than science via Occam'sRazor.

* I do distinguish between good and bad fundamentalism: a bad version doesn't make any sense, sometimes especially doesn't make any sense, even if one were to accept all of its tenets.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.