March 2012: Earth's 16th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on April 25, 2012

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March 2012 was the globe's 16th warmest March on record, but the coolest March since 1999, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). March 2012 was the 17th warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2012 global land temperatures were the 18th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record. The relatively cool global temperatures were due, in part, to the lingering effects of the La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that is now ending. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were near average, the 17th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). March temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st or 2nd coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was near average, ranking 23rd largest (24th smallest) in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March in his March 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, Norway, Iceland, and Scotland all recorded their hottest March temperatures on record, and it was the warmest March in U.S. history. Portions of Italy received no measurable precipitation whatsoever, and for most of southern Europe, it was the driest March on record. In the U.K. it was the driest March since 1953.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2012. The U.S. and Canada experienced the most extreme warmth of anywhere in the globe during March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions no longer present
La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.4°C below average during March and the the first half of April. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Ice age data show that first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover this March. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

March Arctic sea ice extent ninth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its ninth lowest extent on record in March, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the highest since 2008 and one of the highest March extents in the past decade. Ice extent as of April 23 was close to average, one of the few times during the past decade that has occurred. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic. During the 1980s, more than 20% of the Arctic ice was more than 4 years old; this March, that fraction was just 2%. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.

I'll have a new post by Friday.

Jeff Masters

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395. weatherbro
5:33 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting weatherbro:
All the other models push it well east of Florida by Monday then into the Atlantic south of Bermuda.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1365
394. weatherbro
5:32 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
All the other models push it well east of Florida by Monday.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1365
393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:58 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54881
392. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:47 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
XX/AOI/XL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54881
391. ncstorm
3:11 PM GMT on April 26, 2012

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 805 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 110 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED/FAST MOVING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION THIS MORNING.
EVEN WHILE INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE MCS WILL BE TEMPERED AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS...THE WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST MOVING NATURE OF
THE MCS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 31045.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
390. nigel20
2:33 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8357
389. nigel20
2:25 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
April 25, 2011

April 25, 2012
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8357
388. ncstorm
2:21 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
I see the SPC upgraded to slight risk for my area today and upgraded the whole state of NC for a 2% tornado risk



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
387. nigel20
2:14 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Good morning all

April 26, 2012 SST Anomaly
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8357
386. NCHurricane2009
2:10 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
I've issued a special tropical update immediatlely this morning concenring the disturbance developing in the central Caribbean...check it out!

Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 535 Comments: 3709
385. LargoFl
2:07 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-262200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
900 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.NOW...
...SUNNY AND WARM THIS AFTERNOON...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INLAND...


UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONTINUES FOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
COUPLE WITH DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE COUNTIES.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
384. BLee2333
2:06 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Hey folks. Just letting u know I'm still alive! Looking forward to the coming season!
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
383. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)
we sure could use the rain here in florida, getting real dry here again
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
382. jeffs713
1:53 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:


actually the CMC along with the Euro have been pretty good with formation of storms lately (I know they aren't tropical)as opposed to the GFS being the outlier in some cases..It also goes by the name "Canadian Model on Crack"..lets see if the winning streak will continue into the tropical season


I honestly don't look at the CMC that much, preferring to focus on the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and RUC models. (RUC for local weather)

I will watch the CMC during hurricane season, but it is kept in mind more as a consistent outlier (it is consistently an outlier, that is). If the CMC agrees with what other models are putting together... then I *know* something is up.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
381. ncstorm
1:39 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)


actually the CMC along with the Euro have been pretty good with formation of storms lately (I know they aren't tropical)as opposed to the GFS being the outlier in some cases..It also goes by the name "Canadian Model on Crack"..lets see if the winning streak will continue into the tropical season
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
380. jeffs713
1:32 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
The CMC just slams the bahamas and keys and eventually Florida with heavy rain starting this Sunday into Next Sunday




The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
379. ncstorm
1:27 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
378. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:16 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54881
377. jeffs713
1:14 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:



I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?

Yep. Getting it to relax 15-20kt at the end of april is the issue.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
376. Thrawst
1:11 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Bahamas will have a nasty weekend this one coming up...
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1908
375. StormTracker2K
12:50 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Gusty storms moving across the Smokey MTNs this morning.



Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
374. StormTracker2K
12:36 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting stormpetrol:



I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?


I agree the shear is the biggest obstacle but there seems to be a spin there north of Panama so we will see what happens over the next several days.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
373. stormpetrol
12:32 PM GMT on April 26, 2012



I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8123
372. StormTracker2K
12:28 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Oh My!! I bet we see Alberto soon. Those dark greens extend all the way up to S FL. GEESHH!!



This is the result.


This is as the MJO peaks.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
371. hydrus
12:26 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning! It appears that a low maybe trying to form north of Panama. Very early to see convection firing like this in the Southern Caribbean.




Heres a link to below to get a better picture of whats going on.
Link
It is certainly not unusual to have a low pressure area form on the tail end of a front. I must say, if it stayed there long enough, and shear was minimal, we could have something..I do think there will be more heavy rain.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21877
370. hydrus
12:23 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Very windy here. Outflow boundaries I think.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21877
369. StormTracker2K
12:23 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Good morning! It appears that a low maybe trying to form north of Panama. Very early to see convection firing like this in the Southern Caribbean.




Heres a link to below to get a better picture of whats going on.
Link
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
368. Neapolitan
12:17 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Many/most of you have probably already seen this, but I thought it might be worthy of a repost, seeing as how it's that time of year again. It's a snippet of the IMAX documentary Stormchasers that deals with Hurricane Hunters. It's all pretty good, but punching through Emily's eyewall (roughly 3:00) is, IMO, the best part. (Best viewed in full-screen HD.)

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13629
367. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:04 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
366. hydrus
12:04 PM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting JNCali:
Geesh.. when did this happen?
I'm on the road all day in south middle TN.. maybe I'll get some good photos of some weather..
Very windy here on the plateau last night. The worded forecast might throw anyone who is an amateur with the terminology and abbreviations......SRN WV/ERN KY TO MID-SOUTH REGION AND ERN OK...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR IN MODE
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...LOCALLY ENHANCING
HAIL/WIND THREAT RESPECTIVELY. SFC DEW POINTS 60S F AND PLUME OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH
STRENGTHENING SFC DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
WEAK MLCINH AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH AND UPSCALE
MERGER OF CONVECTION. AS SUCH...AGGREGATED COLD POOLS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS...ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCING WIND THREAT. OVERALL SVR
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK...AS COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW POOLS
AND SFC COOLING REDUCES BUOYANCY. COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM MID-SOUTH WWD OVER ERN OK.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21877
365. weatherh98
11:51 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What'd you do to get detention?


Squirted water out of a mio bottle in class and it flew up and went in the air, and then hit a table and she saw it lol

Good morning!

Its already hot this weekend could be some of the hottest temps all year!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
364. WxGeekVA
11:40 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
I gotta say, the best part about spring rain is not that it is helping end the drought, but the fact that it washes the ?!&@?%* pollen out of the air!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
363. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:25 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
362. JNCali
11:20 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Geesh.. when did this happen?
I'm on the road all day in south middle TN.. maybe I'll get some good photos of some weather..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
361. MAweatherboy1
10:34 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7969
360. LargoFl
10:30 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
417 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-262100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
417 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL RESULT IN A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A HIGH DANGER
OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. FIRES MAY START RAPIDLY AND SHORT-DISTANCE
SPREADING BY EMBERS WILL BE COMMON. OUTDOOR BURNING MAY BE
PROHIBITED IN YOUR AREA.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES MAY AGAIN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LONG DURATIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH...THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

GLITTO
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
359. LargoFl
10:28 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
358. LargoFl
10:25 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
357. charlottefl
8:39 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
356. islander101010
8:07 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
fukishimia is not dead looking to be #1
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4920
354. VAbeachhurricanes
6:45 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Anyone up?
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6672
352. nigel20
3:36 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Good night fellow bloggers
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8357
351. Abacosurf
3:22 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


If there is no ice, what is going to hold up the poles?
LOL

Classic.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
349. sunlinepr
2:58 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
348. sunlinepr
2:56 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Interesting video

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
347. nigel20
2:56 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night All. Stay Safe and Have a Good Rest.

Same to you pedley
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8357
346. Tazmanian
2:51 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
vote for Daffy Duck for president
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
345. PedleyCA
2:51 AM GMT on April 26, 2012
Good Night All. Stay Safe and Have a Good Rest.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6026

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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