Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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1370. hydrus
500 mb wind speed..
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1369. hydrus
gfsUS_500_avort_36.gif
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1368. hydrus
48 hour water vapor forecast..
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1367. hydrus
IR Window Brightness Temp. Looks like a winter pattern to me. 60 hour forecast.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NAM4 has a maximum snow depth of 14 inches in West Virginia when this system is done and over with.


I think that's too high... I think only the higher elevations will see major snow, and I think 12 inches will be the maximum, with just very isolated higher amounts in the highest elevations
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
Hopefully it will stay in the mid thirty's around here but many farmers already have corn sprouting out their fields.   

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How come there is no Local Climate Change info from Sydney???? Seems a bit weird since records go back 150yrs.
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The NAM4 has a maximum snow depth of 14 inches in West Virginia when this system is done and over with.

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Henry has a Cat 3 Snowstorm for the Northeast tonight and tomorrow.



My friend made a good graphic show the effects of a CAP.

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The wet scenario that was forecast for Puerto Rico has begun early on this Sunday.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012

PRC029-031-087-103-119-127-139-221715-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0134.120422T1415Z-120422T1715Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-NAGUABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-
RIO GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
1015 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...NAGUABO...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO
GRANDE AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 115 PM AST

* AT 1012 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SAN JUAN EAST TO NAGUABO
MOVING TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 MPH. THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...QUEBRADA GUABA IN NAGUABO HAS EXPERIENCED SIGNIFICANT
RISES AND IS POSSIBLE THIS STREAM COULD GO OUT OF ITS BANKS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6603 1846 6590 1842 6577 1839 6575
1827 6576 1825 6569 1821 6566 1817 6569
1819 6572 1817 6572 1818 6576 1811 6577
1819 6576 1821 6583 1827 6582 1825 6588
1831 6598 1830 6608 1844 6610 1847 6613

$$

ROSA
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012

PRC063-077-085-221645-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0133.120422T1354Z-120422T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-
954 AM AST SUN APR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GURABO...JUNCOS AND LAS PIEDRAS

* UNTIL 1245 PM AST

* AT 951 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE GURABO AND VALENCIANO RIVER BASINS IN
JUNCOS...GURABO AND LAS PIEDRAS. RAIN GAGES HAVE MEASURED RAINFALL
RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THESE RAINS. THESE COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SHARP
RISES WITHIN BANKFULL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON THE GURABO AND
VALENCIANO RIVERS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1825 6585 1828 6584 1826 6582
1817 6583 1817 6586 1812 6588 1813 6592
1823 6595 1821 6600 1822 6601 1827 6601
1830 6603 1831 6603 1831 6597

$$

ROSA

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The latest April run of the EUROSIP is up on my ENSO blog. What do you think about what it shows?

Link
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This should slow down Local Climate Change a tad no more need for solar power or wind turbinds just a bucket of clams and you can eat them when you turn off the lights :)

A lab has taken a new step toward that world of tomorrow by harvesting energy from clams to power an electric motor.
The researchers have begun looking to new experiments that would test how well living batteries can power microelectronic devices.

Link
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1358. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
Quoting BahaHurican:
Couple of interesting things in the tropics:



One, note the location of the Colombian low well to the W of the SAmerican continent. Two, note the disconnect between the WAfrican monsoon trough and the much further S ITCZ.

Any thoughts?


Look at the bend in the monsoon trough to connect With the itcz, then it briefly goes south of the equator, unless I'm mistaken, the itcz is not supposed to be north of the equator yet.
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1356. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
1355. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing, we dont get WAVES at the beach here..today..3 to 5 feet waves
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
1354. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
1353. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
1352. LargoFl
man its been a loooong time since i had so much lightning and boomers as i had last night around midnight, and it just kept going on with pouring rain etc til i fell asleep..wonderful RAIN!!!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
Couple of interesting things in the tropics:



One, note the location of the Colombian low well to the W of the SAmerican continent. Two, note the disconnect between the WAfrican monsoon trough and the much further S ITCZ.

Any thoughts?
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1350. JNCali
Current map:
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Morning all. It looks more like january than April out this a.m...... lol

But sun is out behind the clouds and I can see a few patches of blue. Looks like the low is going to stay north of us, so we may be done with rain for now. But look at the Caymans!



Maybe I was right last night about Nigel and crew getting some wx from this....
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Quoting Neapolitan:
In the meantime, the CPC is calling for a major warmup next week for almost the entire nation including Alaska. Here's the 6-10 day outlook:

Hot

Yeah, I commented yesterday on how I think that's the first time I've ever seen that map with no blue at all

They're also calling for below average precip for a lot of areas
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
In the meantime, the CPC is calling for a major warmup next week for almost the entire nation including Alaska. Here's the 6-10 day outlook:

Hot
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The squall line blew through Naples with roughly five minutes of lightning, wind, and rain. My gauge in north Collier says 0.26" since midnight, but there's another small cluster of storms making its way through, so we may get up to half an inch for the weekend. Cuts into the deficit a little bit, I guess, so that's good.

In the larger picture, I see that not many Florida reports have come into the SPC, at least not yet; no tornadoes or hail, and just two widely-separated reports of winds. IOW, except for some localized street flooding, it appears as though the state made it through relatively unscathed...
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Guess I was right about the squall line not being too bad, though it held together better than I thought it would...



Doesn't look like we'll see much today...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8035
1344. RTLSNK
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22130
1343. RTLSNK
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 22130
Quoting FLCrackerGirl:
Pressure at Vero Beach Airport is at 1000.8mb
Dropped 2 mb in the last 15 minutes


Isn't this pressure nearly the same as the minimum pressure of the low in the NE Gulf?
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Broken squall line just came through here in Altamonte, north of Orlando. Was great to finally see a thunderstorm, but this was nothing special. A few periods of brief heavy rain and some lightning, nothing too close though. The wind began to pick up at one point, but did not get higher than 20-25 mph. I am very grateful for the rain but this was NO severe weather event in the Orlando area (today at least).
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Special Statement as of 3:01 AM EDT on April 22, 2012

... A significant weather advisory is in effect for strong wind gusts
between 45 and 55 mph over southern Indian River County... Martin
County... Okeechobee County... St. Lucie County...

* until 400 am EDT.

At 259 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of storms approaching Okeechobee County and the Kissimmee river
from the west. The storms were moving east at 35 mph and will affect
Okeechobee... southern Indian River... Saint Lucie and Martin counties.

Locations in the path of the storm which may experience strong winds
include Okeechobee... Basinger... Fort Drum... and Fort Pierce.

The primary threat will be cloud to ground lightning strikes and
gusty winds of 45 to 55 mph... which can cause unsecured objects to
blow around... snap tree limbs or cause power outages. Heavy rainfall
will temporarily reduce visibility. Seek shelter indoors until the
storm passes.

Lat... Lon 2714 8070 2720 8080 2715 8086 2716 8090
2723 8099 2729 8100 2733 8105 2736 8104
2739 8112 2745 8115 2750 8121 2773 8037
2746 8028 2721 8015 2706 8011 2696 8062
time... Mot... loc 0659z 249deg 36kt 2722 8103

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Pressure at Vero Beach Airport is at 1000.8mb
Dropped 2 mb in the last 15 minutes
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* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northern Osceola County in Florida
southeastern Orange County in Florida

* until 315 am EDT.

* At 247 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near Saint Cloud... and moving
east-northeast at 40 mph.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
... A Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect until 300 am EDT
for southeastern Highlands County...

At 238 am EDT... Doppler radar continued to indicate a severe
thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.
This storm was located near Archbold... or 9 miles southeast of Lake
Placid... moving northeast at 35 mph.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
StormTracker2K if you're still with us, storms right on top of you. These storms have really held up nicely overland without the heating of the day.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That is right on the money, currently 1001mb but, close enough.


NAM is also the model that is showing the highest snow totals for the mid-altlantic & northeast.. we shall see
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well I'll be damned the NAM got the position of this right and even intensity!



That is right on the money, currently 1001mb but, close enough.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well I'll be damned the NAM got the position of this right and even intensity!

this is the kind of system the NAM is good at. NAM will also pick up on subtropical development because of STSs baroclinic start.
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Someone asked earlier if they would make it across, yes they will indeed.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...

VALID 220621Z - 220715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES...MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM POLK TO LEE AND
COLLIER COUNTIES.

AS OF 0605Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO MORE PROMINENT LINE
SEGMENTS...ONE FROM LAKE COUNTY SWWD TO MANATEE AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER FROM WRN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES TO WRN
COLLIER COUNTY. MOVEMENT OF THESE LINES WAS GENERALLY E AT 20-25
KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PRESSURE FALLS
ALONG THE E-CNTRL/SERN PENINSULA WHICH APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH A
ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WAA ATTENDANT TO A 50 KT LLJ /PER MLB
VWP/.
WHILE THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /REF. MLB VWP/ AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN GOM WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 04/22/2012
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Someone posted a model earlier that still had the surface low in the Gulf at 6am tomorrow. Surface & ULL don't appear to be moving much at all.
Well I'll be damned the NAM got the position of this right and even intensity!

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting charlottefl:


Goodnight. Not too far behind you.
LoL... never got outta bed... lol... these little netbooks r handy that way....
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Someone posted a model earlier that still had the surface low in the Gulf at 6am tomorrow. Surface & ULL don't appear to be moving much at all.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC055-220700-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0005.120422T0623Z-120422T0700Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
223 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 300 AM EDT

* AT 215 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VENUS...OR
10 MILES WEST OF PALMDALE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
VENUS.
ARCHBOLD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.

&&
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Some super cloud-ground lightning now. Pity my camera's not here... OTOH, I am sooo not getting out of my warm cozy bed to look for it.... lol

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That severe cell from Ft Meyers slipping by a little south of me right now in Highlands county, heading for Okeechobee.
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Quoting spathy:
Stay safe Baha , Charlotte and the rest, Now I gotta go rest :O)


Goodnight. Not too far behind you.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687
Hmm... thunder's right overhead now. HOPE OUR power doesnt go out.....
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Quoting spathy:
Hi Charlotte. Kinda like later in the season my neighbors Mangos smash into my house and bedroom window. That will wake you up for sure.


I dozed off just a few mins ago, woke up to a loud clap of thunder, the wind instantly picked up pouring down rain, and then BAM, BAM..(always a reassuring sound), just the neighbors trash cans.
Member Since: December 18, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 2687


Rain's really picked up in the last couple minutes, so it seems we r being impacted by that more intense cell of storms. Wind seems to be blowing more from the SW now, w/ occasional gusts from the W.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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