Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:10 PM GMT on April 20, 2012

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In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.


Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.

Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.


Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.

Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.

Jeff Masters

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50 dogsgomoo [inre 7 aspectre]: Those globes are really neat to look at.

Didja check out the links? Amazing how the maintaining the same direction of Earth's spin relative to Earth's orbit around the Sun and the continents position relative to the Poles while flipping the Poles positions -- ie for Turnovia, what is now Antarctica surrounds the NorthPole and Greenland is near the SouthPole -- so radically alters the regional climates, and Earth's climate as a whole.

Not that I expect that the author's thoughts are necessarily correct in the particulars, but the overall picture of Change All Over The Place feels right.
'd be cool if the massive computer banks devoted to weather and climate modeling could be used to model those FlippedWorlds.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting jeffs713:

Right. But don't y'all get rain from shortwaves pushing up from Baja across the mountains? That is where most of our instability comes from, along with moisture from the gulf.


Don't know how this works, but Corpus, Brownsville, San Antonio all average 30 in/yr,
while Houston averages 50 in/yr. I'm sure it's because they're all west of the gulf.

Brownsville and Corpus are both extremely humid. They just don't get the rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting Minnemike:
Hydrus, check out the gravity waves on that visible Keeper posted in #55. pretty much start as full lighting sets in, the lower left corner of the image in southern TX. those are the ones i frequently observe preceding severe storm setups, whether marginal or major events... they usually present :)


Thanks for pointing that out....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4921
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
The latest 15-DAY MJO forecast from the GFS shows a strnog upward pulse entering the Atlantic by the end of this month and into May. While this model is probably a little too strong and too fast, other models such as the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC also show this upward pulse as well. It's time to start watching the Caribbean for any areas of potential development.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30256
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
443 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLC097-202115-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120420T2115Z/
OSCEOLA-
443 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE MARIAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARMONY...FOREVER FLORIDA...KENANSVILLE...HOLOPAW AND DEER PARK

LAT...LON 2784 8118 2786 8120 2787 8120 2823 8132
2832 8089 2775 8088 2778 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 255DEG 14KT 2789 8108

$$


52
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting Minnemike:

well that just makes me want to post Link
:P
but i do appreciate your input..
That was very funny..:) But for that , u get this...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
LOL.My city gets used as an example....We have been seeing more "tropical like" plants show up here in the D.C area.
it sure gets humid enough to grow them there wash, almost as bad as florida in summer..whew, been there alot in the 80's..beautiful city it is
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BISHOP...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALICE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISHOP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2782 9791 2780 9770 2756 9779 2768 9811
2778 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 292DEG 22KT 2771 9794

$$
gee on radar those are some real nasty storms
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
LOL.My city gets used as an example....We have been seeing more "tropical like" plants show up here in the D.C area.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15709
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLC095-097-202115-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120420T2115Z/
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
440 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTH OSCEOLA AND CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE MARY JANE...OR NEAR
NARCOOSSEE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HARMONY...HOLOPAW AND WEDGEFIELD

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 2824 8133 2850 8132 2856 8107 2813 8096
2812 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 263DEG 22KT 2834 8118

$$


52

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting hydrus:

well that just makes me want to post Link
:P
but i do appreciate your input..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC097-202115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0010.120420T2022Z-120420T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE KISSIMMEE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
LAKE MARIAN...HARMONY...KENANSVILLE AND HOLOPAW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN STORMS TODAY.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO SEEK
SHELTER AND PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 2823 8133 2832 8089 2775 8088 2778 8120
2784 8123 2785 8128 2786 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 252DEG 14KT 2790 8120

$$



52
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30256
any power outages reported out by you folks? those are some real gusty winds
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Public Information Statement, Comment Request
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1215 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2012

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Manager Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From: Chris Strager
NWS Advisor for Science and Service Integration

Subject: Soliciting Comments on the National Weather Service
"Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap" through July 18, 2012

The NWS has posted the draft document National Weather Service
"Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap" for public comment through July
18, 2012:

http://go.usa.gov/yZo

Comments may be submitted at the following web address:

https://apps.weather.gov/wrn/comments.php

The NWS Strategic Plan, "Building a Weather-Ready Nation,"
published in 2011, anticipates the services needed by our
increasingly weather-sensitive society for the next two decades,
projects what science and technology may provide to meet these
needs, and creates an unconstrained vision for a Weather-Ready
Nation. Version one of the "Weather-Ready Nation Roadmap" is our
first public draft of steps needed to make this vision a reality.



Those who might pursue a career with the NWS may want to read through the Workforce Evolution Plan section to see what skill sets they will be looking for in the future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BISHOP...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALICE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISHOP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2782 9791 2780 9770 2756 9779 2768 9811
2778 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 292DEG 22KT 2771 9794

$$
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30256
Here is the Mid-April update of all ENSO Models made by IRI. Only a handfull of them go to Moderate El Nino (1.0C) on the peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season (ASO) as they stay between Warm Neutral and Weak El Nino.





Below are important parts of discussion:

Model probabilities for ENSO-neutral conditions are 88% for Apr-Jun, settling to near 50% from Jul-Sep onward. Probabilities for El Ni%uFFFDre near 1% for Apr-Jun, 20% for May-Jul, 35% for Jun-Aug, and 44% for Jul-Sep, remaining approximately in the 42-46% range for most of the remainder of 2012.

The probabilities derived from the more than 25 models on the IRI/CPC plume describe, on average, dissipation of the La Ni%uFFFDround initialization time (early April). This dissipation is confirmed by recent data showing the Nino3.4 index at negative levels weaker than the -0.45 C threshold for La Ni%uFFFDCurrently, for the middle and second half of the year, while neutral ENSO appears most likely, development of El Ni%uFFFDlso has a reasonable chance (but still falling short of 50%)

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WFUS54 KCRP 202035
TORCRP
TXC249-273-355-202115-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0009.120420T2035Z-120420T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
335 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JIM WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 334 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BISHOP...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALICE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BISHOP...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2782 9791 2780 9770 2756 9779 2768 9811
2778 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 292DEG 22KT 2771 9794

$$


MB

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
gee from polk county eastward, you guys are having all the fun..leave some for us lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ064-202100-
MARTIN-
419 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN
COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER JOHNATHAN
DICKINSON STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE HOBE SOUND BEACH...JONATHAN DICKINSON STATE
PARK AND JUPITER ISLAND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2695 8034 2697 8037 2716 8020 2713 8013
2711 8013 2701 8008 2697 8008 2697 8014
2695 8015 2695 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 271DEG 6KT 2703 8017

$$


BOWEN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ552-555-202215-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0015.120420T2015Z-120420T2215Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FORT PIERCE INLET OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS OVER
ORCHID...MOVING EAST AT 5 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS OVER 34 KNOTS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. SMALL CRAFT...ESPECIALLY
THOSE UNDER SAIL...SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE HARBOR IF POSSIBLE. MAKE
SURE YOU AND YOUR CREW ARE WEARING APPROVED FLOTATION DEVICES DURING
THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 2754 8036 2766 8038 2786 8049 2794 8011
2779 8004 2774 8004 2765 8000 2759 7998
2751 7994 2740 7990
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 275DEG 7KT 2776 8045

$$


BOWEN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
No rain here in south Florida. Sunny skies and calm wind. No clouds in the sky...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
They are an interesting phenomenon, and can be hazardous to aircraft and occasionally the people here on the Earth. Very gusty winds have occurred when these waves reach the surface............From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
For the different concept in general relativity, see gravitational wave.
Surface gravity wave, breaking on an ocean beach.
Wave clouds over Theresa, Wisconsin, United States.
Atmospheric gravity waves as seen from space.
NASA satellite image of a gravity wave cloud pattern formed in the wake of the Île Amsterdam, a volcanic island in the southern Indian Ocean.

In fluid dynamics, gravity waves are waves generated in a fluid medium or at the interface between two media (e.g., the atmosphere and the ocean) which has the restoring force of gravity or buoyancy.

When a fluid element is displaced on an interface or internally to a region with a different density, gravity tries to restore the parcel toward equilibrium resulting in an oscillation about the equilibrium state or wave orbit.[1] Gravity waves on an air–sea interface are called surface gravity waves or surface waves while internal gravity waves are called internal waves. Wind-generated waves on the water surface are examples of gravity waves, and tsunamis and ocean tides are others.

Wind-generated gravity waves on the free surface of the Earth's ponds, lakes, seas and oceans have a period of between 0.3 and 30 seconds (3 Hz to 0.03 Hz). Shorter waves are also affected by surface tension and are called gravity–capillary waves and (if hardly influenced by gravity) capillary waves. Alternatively, so-called infragravity waves, which are due to subharmonic nonlinear wave interaction with the wind waves, have periods longer than the accompanying wind-generated waves.Wave clouds over Theresa, Wisconsin, United States.


No, nope, nah, it's just a glitch in the Matrix man, were tied to a chair with a tube in us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Extremely moist across the state of Florida right now.







PWAT's have increased significantly, however it is still mostly surface moisture and isn't deep layered yet. however deep layer moisture is expected to surge north form the south and PWAT's are expected to reach 2.00 inches, so thunderstorms will produce very intense rainfall and severe cells could dump several inches in an hour over localized areas, it will be very rain-season like tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Minnemike:
Hydrus, check out the gravity waves on that visible Keeper posted in #55. pretty much start as full lighting sets in, the lower left corner of the image in southern TX. those are the ones i frequently observe preceding severe storm setups, whether marginal or major events... they usually present :)
They are an interesting phenomenon, and can be hazardous to aircraft and occasionally the people here on the Earth. Very gusty winds have occurred when these waves reach the surface............From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
For the different concept in general relativity, see gravitational wave.
Surface gravity wave, breaking on an ocean beach.
Wave clouds over Theresa, Wisconsin, United States.
Atmospheric gravity waves as seen from space.
NASA satellite image of a gravity wave cloud pattern formed in the wake of the Île Amsterdam, a volcanic island in the southern Indian Ocean.

In fluid dynamics, gravity waves are waves generated in a fluid medium or at the interface between two media (e.g., the atmosphere and the ocean) which has the restoring force of gravity or buoyancy.

When a fluid element is displaced on an interface or internally to a region with a different density, gravity tries to restore the parcel toward equilibrium resulting in an oscillation about the equilibrium state or wave orbit.[1] Gravity waves on an air–sea interface are called surface gravity waves or surface waves while internal gravity waves are called internal waves. Wind-generated waves on the water surface are examples of gravity waves, and tsunamis and ocean tides are others.

Wind-generated gravity waves on the free surface of the Earth's ponds, lakes, seas and oceans have a period of between 0.3 and 30 seconds (3 Hz to 0.03 Hz). Shorter waves are also affected by surface tension and are called gravity–capillary waves and (if hardly influenced by gravity) capillary waves. Alternatively, so-called infragravity waves, which are due to subharmonic nonlinear wave interaction with the wind waves, have periods longer than the accompanying wind-generated waves.Wave clouds over Theresa, Wisconsin, United States.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the latest Tallahassee NWS (I really like their new Met Desk analysis) take on the system this weekend as far as North Florida/Big Bend goes. Notice that they keyword is that the Big Bend will be in the "cold" sector of the front which should keep instability down.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2012

On Saturday through Sunday, although there are some subtle differences between the latest 12 UTC NAM/GFS/and earlier 00 UTC ECMWF model runs, they appear to be gradually coming into better agreement with each successive run. While definitely not ideal for those with outdoor plans, the general consensus is for the strengthening shortwave (now digging SE to the W of the Lower MS Valley) to dive into the NE Gulf of Mexico and bring a much needed dose of rainfall to the CWA over the weekend, with the highest PoPs Sat. and Sat. Night. Since most of the Region will be in the Cool Sector for the duration of the event (with the possible exception of the SE Big Bend for a brief period on Sat.), we are expecting mostly Rain with a just a few embedded thunderstorms possible over the Tri-State area. Unless, there are some significant changes to the models (like an unexpected harp northward shift), any strong convection appears unlikely at this time, with the Storm Total QPF being the greatest variable. In any event, we are expecting a NW to SE gradient, with the SE FL Big Bend likely to receive the highest rainfall amounts when all is said and done.



I am guessing that the real action over the weekend (for Florida) will be in the warm section further South in the Florida Peninsula..........That unexpected convection out in the Gulf west of Florida is actually a good thing if it can stay around through tomorrow as a possible rain or cloud shield and help keep daytime heating a little cooler before the front busts through.
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be careful stormtracker..more will be coming towards ya later.............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
401 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ052-056-057-061-202100-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-
401 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POLK...NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS...HARDEE AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF POLK CITY...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF HAINES CITY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH WILL AFFECT POLK
CITY...LAKE ALFRED AND HAINES CITY. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR SEBRING...CREWSVILLE...AND JUST EAST OF FORT MEADE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE MAY OCCUR.


&&

LAT...LON 2730 8193 2828 8198 2834 8165 2827 8165
2826 8156 2815 8152 2815 8146 2809 8144
2809 8138 2802 8138 2804 8145 2795 8133
2786 8129 2782 8120 2766 8112 2749 8120
2739 8111 2736 8103 2728 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 258DEG 6KT 2822 8171

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Wonder what time it is...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3466
Glad I had my dead pines cut down (west Houston).
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's coming your way. Bunch of storms in the gulf are going to move in later this evening.
yep watching them closely, it hasnt rained here all day, so maybe they will cool us off a bit
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Looks like they've put up a warning now for Harris County:

AT 309 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 27 MILES SOUTH OF TOMBALL TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JERSEY VILLAGE TOM ISSION BEND...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES SOUTH OF PINEHURST TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALDINE TO TOWN WEST...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

EDIT:

There's also a new one that just blew up in the SW corner of Fort Bend county. Whee!
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Quoting nofailsafe:


The southern end of the storm about to cut into Harris county looks about as bad as what's going on up north. I'm down near TMC and I've got a wonderful view of these.

I'm watching the second-worst storm of the bunch (with 1.25" hail possible, according to the storm tracking) that is about to go over my house. OF COURSE my wife and I carpooled this morning... so her car is at the house. I really hope we don't get hail larger than quarter size.
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April 27, 2012:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30256
Quoting oreodogsghost:


My place in Wimberley got an inch - but that was about it for the hill country. That same cell is now in western Gonzales County. Interesting afternoon.
Skies are Clear here now, at least it isn't hot today.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
356 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-202100-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
356 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND HAIL OVER LAKE...ORANGE..OSCEOLA...
SEMINOLE...AND WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT.

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THESE STORMS WILL COLLIDE WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOWS ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEAS BREEZE AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES. STORMS TODAY HAVE PRODUCED NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
COIN SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 2938 8142 2927 8141 2926 8128 2842 8092
2765 8088 2766 8113 2783 8122 2786 8131
2804 8143 2802 8138 2808 8135 2808 8145
2814 8153 2825 8156 2828 8166 2834 8167
2837 8183 2896 8188 2897 8166 2933 8168
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 266DEG 19KT 2837 8148

$$


52
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting jeffs713:

So basically, if you are between I-10 and The Woodlands... hunker down and enjoy the show. (I'm in Jersey Village, right smack dab in the middle of it, and live in Tomball, which is about to get the worst cell in the line. WHEEE!)


The southern end of the storm about to cut into Harris county looks about as bad as what's going on up north. I'm down near TMC and I've got a wonderful view of these.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
No love for the Tampa area it appears for these day time thunderstorms.


It's coming your way. Bunch of storms in the gulf are going to move in later this evening.
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A very nice presentation Dr. Masters. One of the best I've seen for the moderate education level, and not overblown in terms of the use of any fear factors.

We need the fear factor too, of course, but we also need the matter of fact basis for the potential threats we face.

Regardless if you believe in the bigger long lasting changes now, as a result of greenhouse emissions, there is plenty of evidence for a shift in the equilibrium of hot vs. cold and wet vs. dry, and that in and of itself is a possible danger.

Our food supply is increasingly under threat, and our population is soaring. It's a simple matter of supply and demand, which is something the business community should easily understand. It's like ignoring profit and loss. If we stand to lose a lot of lives, this creates conflict. In the nuclear age, conflict over diminishing resources is the greatest threat of all.

Those who have nothing to lose won't hesitate to take revenge on those who have everything.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I'm glad as it looks as if you guys are going to join in on the fun. Both states need this rain the most so keep it coming.

Yeah, but people west of us, along the I-35 corridor (and points west) need it much more than we do. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the rain... but they need it more. (and so do y'all, but your main event comes tomorrow)
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Extremely moist across the state of Florida right now.



I had a dewpoint of 73 earlier
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No love for the Tampa area it appears for these day time thunderstorms.
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Quoting jeffs713:

So basically, if you are between I-10 and The Woodlands... hunker down and enjoy the show. (I'm in Jersey Village, right smack dab in the middle of it, and live in Tomball, which is about to get the worst cell in the line. WHEEE!)


I'm glad as it looks as if you guys are going to join in on the fun. Both states need this rain the most so keep it coming.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Quarter size hail was reported near Clermont just a little bit ago.
stay safe out there folks
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
Quoting LargoFl:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
253 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ199-212-213-227-202045-
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
253 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...NORTH CENTRAL FORT
BEND...SOUTHEASTERN WALLER AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TOMBALL TO KATY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...MISSION BEND...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...ALDINE...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...HEDWIG VILLAGE...PORTER HEIGHTS...
SOUTHSIDE PLACE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE AND STAGECOACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2968 9546 2971 9596 3016 9572 3017 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 271DEG 24KT 3009 9567 2967 9591

$$

So basically, if you are between I-10 and The Woodlands... hunker down and enjoy the show. (I'm in Jersey Village, right smack dab in the middle of it, and live in Tomball, which is about to get the worst cell in the line. WHEEE!)
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Quoting LarrySheldon:
The garbage science about Gorebal warming is the reason I no longe trust anything from The Wunderground (I used to think that was a poorly picked name, but the more I read here and about Ayers and Dohrne and their current work, the more I see the perfection of the choice.

I don't trust NOAA, NASA, TWC, Wunderground, or you for anything except current raw data (I have not caught you futzing with that yet) as long it tracks with what I or somebody I trust can see.

And your current efforts drove me to write just now; the distrust is several years old since I discovered your PWSs a mile or two away from me consistently report temperatures significantly higher than what I see. (I reported them and you did not address the issue.)

It will be interesting to see if this article sees the light of day--I'll post a copy at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/20/a-request-to -readers-write-a-connect-the-dots-letter-this-week end/ in case a question comes up about what I said.




Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52262
whew, this afternoon is heating up huh.................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
318 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ056-057-061-202000-
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
318 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
HIGHLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN HARDEE AND NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTIES FOR
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 400
PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR CREWSVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SEBRING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH WILL AFFECT SWEETWATER...
CREWSVILLE AND SEBRING.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE MAY OCCUR.


&&

LAT...LON 2764 8147 2734 8131 2722 8166 2750 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 247DEG 8KT 2741 8159

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
253 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ199-212-213-227-202045-
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-WALLER TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
253 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...NORTH CENTRAL FORT
BEND...SOUTHEASTERN WALLER AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TOMBALL TO KATY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...MISSION BEND...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...ALDINE...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...JERSEY VILLAGE...TOMBALL...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...OAK RIDGE NORTH...HEDWIG VILLAGE...PORTER HEIGHTS...
SOUTHSIDE PLACE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE AND STAGECOACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2968 9546 2971 9596 3016 9572 3017 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 271DEG 24KT 3009 9567 2967 9591

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.